ABSTRACT
BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region. MethodsCombining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020. FindingsIn February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 22% (0-46). As the COVID-19 restrictions to physical contact are lifted, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak increased to 31% (8-51), 35% (16-52) and 43% (31-56) assuming a 15%, 50% and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 37% (17-54), 44% (29-57) and 57% (48-65) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of restrictions on contact can be overcome by conducting an SIA with [≥] 95% coverage in under-fives. InterpretationWhile contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once physical distancing is relaxed. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks once contact restrictions are fully lifted in Kenya. FundingThe United Kingdoms Medical Research Council and the Department for International Development
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer claims the lives of 275,000 women each year; most of these deaths occur in low-or middle-income countries. In Kenya, cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality among women of reproductive age. Kenya's Ministry of Public Health and Sanitation has developed a comprehensive strategy to prevent cervical cancer, which includes plans for vaccinating preteen girls against human papillomavirus (HPV) by 2015. To identify HPV vaccine communication and mobilization needs, this research sought to understand HPV vaccine-related perceptions and concerns of male and female caregivers and community leaders in four rural communities of western Kenya. METHODS: We conducted five focus groups with caregivers (n = 56) and 12 key-informant interviews with opinion leaders to explore cervical cancer-related knowledge, attitudes and beliefs, as well as acceptability of HPV vaccination for 9-12 year-old girls. Four researchers independently reviewed the data and developed codes based on questions in interview guides and topics that emerged organically, before comparing and reconciling results through a group consensus process. RESULTS: Cervical cancer was not commonly recognized, though it was understood generally in terms of its symptoms. By association with cancer and genital/reproductive organs, cervical cancer was feared and stigmatized. Overall acceptability of a vaccine that prevents cervical cancer was high, so long as it was endorsed by trusted agencies and communities were sensitized first. Some concerns emerged related to vaccine safety (e.g., impact on fertility), program intent, and health equity. CONCLUSION: For successful vaccine introduction in Kenya, there is a need for communication and mobilization efforts to raise cervical cancer awareness; prompt demand for vaccination; address health equity concerns and stigma; and minimize potential resistance. Visible endorsement by government leaders and community influencers can provide reassurance of the vaccine's safety, efficacy and benefits for girls and communities. Involvement of community leadership, parents and champions may also be critical for combatting stigma and making cervical cancer relevant to Kenyan communities. These findings underscore the need for adequate planning and resources for information, education and communication prior to vaccine introduction. Specific recommendations for communication and social-marketing strategies are made.
