The long road to elimination: malaria mortality in a South African population cohort over 21 years.

BACKGROUND: Malaria elimination is on global agendas following successful transmission reductions. Nevertheless moving from low to zero transmission is challenging. South Africa has an elimination target of 2018, which may or may not be realised in its hypoendemic areas. METHODS: The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has monitored population health in north-eastern South Africa since 1992. Malaria deaths were analysed against individual factors, socioeconomic status, labour migration and weather over a 21-year period, eliciting trends over time and associations with covariates. RESULTS: Of 13 251 registered deaths over 1.58 million person-years, 1.2% were attributed to malaria. Malaria mortality rates increased from 1992 to 2013, while mean daily maximum temperature rose by 1.5 °C. Travel to endemic Mozambique became easier, and malaria mortality increased in higher socioeconomic groups. Overall, malaria mortality was significantly associated with age, socioeconomic status, labour migration and employment, yearly rainfall and higher rainfall/temperature shortly before death. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria persists as a small but important cause of death in this semi-rural South African population. Detailed longitudinal population data were crucial for these analyses. The findings highlight practical political, socioeconomic and environmental difficulties that may also be encountered elsewhere in moving from low-transmission scenarios to malaria elimination.

Active case finding: understanding the burden of tuberculosis in rural South Africa.

SETTING: The Agincourt demographic and health surveillance site in South Africa's rural Northern Province. OBJECTIVES: To accurately assess the true burden of tuberculosis in a rural sub-district with a known high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus. DESIGN: Data on hospital registrations of tuberculosis were combined with data from an ongoing demographic health and surveillance system to accurately describe the burden of tuberculosis in a well-defined community. Undiagnosed active cases of sputum-positive disease in the community were detected among chronic coughers identified by heads of household during a single-pass census interview. RESULTS: The incidence of hospitalised tuberculosis among the permanently resident population (n = 56 566) was 212/100,000 person-years during 1999. The average point prevalence of detected tuberculosis (all forms) among patients aged over 10 years was 133/100,000, and 81/100,000 for sputum-positive pulmonary disease. This compares with a point prevalence of 16/100,000 cases of sputum-positive disease detected through active case finding. CONCLUSION: For every nine cases of sputum positive pulmonary tuberculosis being treated at any one time, there are two cases of undiagnosed disease in the community. This study demonstrates a modest burden of undiagnosed tuberculosis among residents in a rural sub-district in South Africa.

Vaccination coverage in Mhala and Elim in 1990--a health systems approach.

This paper assesses the implementation of the 1986 Gazankulu policy on immunisation in 2 of the homeland's 6 health wards, Mhala and Elim. Vaccination coverage was estimated using the cluster sampling technique recommended by the Expanded Programme on Immunisation of the World Health Organisation. Vaccination coverage of children aged 12-23 months who have received eight valid doses (as stipulated in the programme) is estimated at 25% in Mhala and 53% in Elim (P < 0.001). While both figures can be substantially improved, the analysis concentrates on factors that help explain the differences between 2 districts that fall under the same central administration. As well as demographic differences, key factors include the presence of community-based health facilities and availability of staff (including programme leaders). The need for regional planners to have detailed and comprehensive knowledge of the health system at district level, and to make allowance for this, is put forward as vital to effective health planning. The failure of the Gazankulu policy to attain its objectives also reflects the often unrecognised consequences of the fragmentation of health services.

Identification and treatment of risk factors for coronary heart disease in general practice: a possible screening model.

A screening programme for the identification of risk factors for coronary heart disease in all patients aged 25-55 years in a general practice population was studied. The identification of risk factors included measurement of obesity, blood pressure, hypercholesterolaemia, and urinalysis, together with questions about family history, cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, and lifestyle. The patients with identified risk factors were invited to attend a lifestyle intervention clinic organised by the practice nurses and run by the health visitors, with the help of the local authority dietitian. Of 2646 (62%) patients who attended for screening, 78 (64%) of the 121 shown to have a high cholesterol concentration experienced a drop in cholesterol concentration. The mean fall in cholesterol concentration in the 78 patients who showed a positive response to intervention was 1.1 mmol/l. The study was intended as a possible flexible model for screening for coronary heart disease in general practice that could be complemented rather than replaced by opportunistic screening. The issues of organisation, cost, manpower, nonattendance, and effectiveness in a busy general practice environment are discussed.