Digital Adoption by an Organization Supporting Informal Caregivers During COVID-19 Pandemic Showing Impact on Service Use, Organizational Performance, and Carers' Well-Being: Retrospective Population-Based Database Study With Embedded User Survey.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has catalyzed a move from face-to-face to digital delivery of services by hospitals and primary care. However, little is known about the impact of digital transformation on organizations supporting unpaid caregivers. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the value of care provided by such informal caregivers is estimated to be £111 billion (US$ 152.7 billion) in England. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze service uptake patterns (including digital service options) over the pandemic period in an English caregivers' support organization covering a population of 0.98 million; measure changes in organizational performance, service efficiency, and quality; and identify the views of caregivers on service provision and future digital delivery. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of the use of digital versus nondigital support services (January 2019 to June 2021) by caregivers in city and rural geographic areas. We compared organizational performance and service quality indicators for 2 financial years (2019-2020 and 2020-2021). A survey was conducted to identify barriers and facilitators to digital service uptake, the computer proficiency of caregivers (the Computer Proficiency Questionnaire, 12-item version), and preferences for future digital service provision. Quantitative data were analyzed using Stata 13 (StataCorp LLC). Thematic analysis was used for open-text survey responses. RESULTS: The number of caregivers registered with the organization rose from 14,817 in 2019 to 20,237 in 2021. Monthly contacts rose from 1929 to 6741, with remote contacts increasing from 48.89% (943/1929) to 86.68% (5843/6741); distinctive patterns were observed for city versus rural caregivers. There was an increase in one-to-one contacts (88.8%) and caregiver assessments (20.9%), with no expansion in staffing. Service quality indicators showed an improvement in 5 of 8 variables (all P<.05). The 152 carers completing the survey had similar demographics to all registered caregivers. The Computer Proficiency Questionnaire, 12-item version, mean score of 25.61 (SD 4.40) indicated relatively high computer proficiency. The analysis of open-text responses identified a preference for the organization to continue to offer face-to-face services as well as web-based options. The digital services that were the most highly rated were carers' well-being assessments, support needs checks, and peer support groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that staff in the caregiver support organization were agile in adapting their services to digital delivery while dealing with increased numbers of registered clients and higher monthly contacts, all without obvious detriment to service quality. Caregivers indicated a preference for blended services, even while recording high computer proficiency. Considering the economic importance of unpaid caregivers, more attention should be given to organizations funded to provide support for them and to the potential for technology to enhance caregivers' access to, and engagement with, such services.

Patterns and trends in household food security in rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

This study examines patterns and trends in household food security in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, from 2010 to 2019. We use data from a household panel nested in the Agincourt Health and Socio- Demographic Surveillance System. Findings indicate that there have been improvements in household food security in this rural setting over the last decade. By polychoric principal component analysis, an aggregate food security index was constructed and we observed a small, yet important, proportion of households (7.8 %) that remained chronically food insecure. An ordered probit model was used to estimate the determinants of food security. Findings reveal that the observed differences in household food security status are as a result of differences in socioeconomic status. We therefore recommend that focus must be placed on identifying economic opportunities and empowering the chronically food insecure households if universal household food security is to be attained in rural South Africa and beyond.

Integrated Long-Term Care 'Neighbourhoods' to Support Older Populations: Evolving Strategies in Japan and England.

Western countries are currently facing the public health challenge of a rapidly aging population and the associated challenge of providing long-term care services to meet its needs with a reduced working age population. As people age, they will increasingly require both health and social care services to maintain their quality of life and these will need to be integrated to provide cost-effective long-term care. The World Health Organization recommended in 2020 that all countries should have integrated long-term care strategies to better support their older populations. Japan, with the most rapidly ageing society in the world, started to address this challenge in the 1990s. In 2017, it introduced a national policy for integrated long-term health and social care services at a local geographical level for older people. England has recently embarked on its first plan aiming for the integration of services for older people. In this article, we compare these approaches to the integration of long-term care systems, including the strengths of each. The paper also considers the effects of historical, cultural and organizational factors and the emerging role of technology. Finally, we identify critical lessons that can inform strategy development in other countries, and highlight the need to provide more international comparisons.

Validity of Self-Report for Ascertaining HIV Status Among Circular Migrants and Permanent Residents in South Africa: A Cross-Sectional, Population-Based Analysis.

While expanded HIV testing is needed in South Africa, increasing accurate self-report of HIV status is an essential parallel goal in this highly mobile population. If self-report can ascertain true HIV-positive status, persons with HIV (PWH) could be linked to life-saving care without the existing delays required by producing medical records or undergoing confirmatory testing, which are especially burdensome for the country's high prevalence of circular migrants. We used Wave 1 data from The Migration and Health Follow-Up Study, a representative adult cohort, including circular migrants and permanent residents, randomly sampled from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in a rural area of Mpumalanga Province. Within the analytic sample (n = 1,918), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of self-report were calculated with dried blood spot (DBS) HIV test results as the standard. Among in-person participants (n = 2,468), 88.8% consented to DBS-HIV testing. HIV prevalence was 25.3%. Sensitivity of self-report was 43.9% (95% CI: 39.5-48.5), PPV was 93.4% (95% CI: 89.5-96.0); specificity was 99.0% (95% CI: 98.3-99.4) and NPV was 83.9% (95% CI: 82.8-84.9). Self-report of an HIV-positive status was predictive of true status for both migrants and permanent residents in this high-prevalence setting. Persons who self-reported as living with HIV were almost always truly positive, supporting a change to clinical protocol to immediately connect persons who say they are HIV-positive to ART and counselling. However, 56% of PWH did not report as HIV-positive, highlighting the imperative to address barriers to disclosure.

Epidemiology of chronic multimorbidity and temporary migration in a rural South African community in health transition: A cross-sectional population-based analysis.

Introduction: In sub-Saharan African settings, the increasing non-communicable disease mortality is linked to migration, which disproportionately exposes sub-populations to risk factors for co-occurring HIV and NCDs. Methods: We examined the prevalence, patterns, and factors associated with two or more concurrent diagnoses of chronic diseases (i.e., multimorbidity) among temporary within-country migrants. Employing a cross-sectional design, our study sample comprised 2144 residents and non-residents 18-40 years interviewed and with measured biomarkers in 2018 in Wave 1 of the Migrant Health Follow-up Study (MHFUS), drawn from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) in rural north-eastern South Africa. We used modified Poisson regression models to estimate the association between migration status and prevalent chronic multimorbidity conditional on age, sex, education, and healthcare utilisation. Results: Overall, 301 participants (14%; 95% CI 12.6-15.6), median age 31 years had chronic multimorbidity. Multimorbidity was more prevalent among non-migrants (14.6%; 95% CI 12.8-16.4) compared to migrants (12.8%; 95% CI 10.3-15.7). Non-migrants also had the greatest burden of dual-overlapping chronic morbidities, such as HIV-obesity 5.7%. Multimorbidity was 2.6 times as prevalent (PR 2.65. 95% CI 2.07-3.39) among women compared to men. Among migrants, men, and individuals with secondary or tertiary education manifested lower prevalence of two or more conditions. Discussion: In a rural community with colliding epidemics, we found low but significant multimorbidity driven by a trio of conditions: HIV, hypertension, and obesity. Understanding the multimorbidity burden associated with early adulthood exposures, including potential protective factors (i.e., migration coupled with education), is a critical first step towards improving secondary and tertiary prevention for chronic disease among highly mobile marginalised sub-populations.

Nexus between summer climate variability and household food security in rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

Ongoing climate changes are likely to impact household food security in rural households that depend on rainfed subsistence agriculture. This paper investigates the relationship between summer climate variability and household food security in rural Mpumalanga, South Africa. We used a household panel data set nested in the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System, together with rainfall and temperature data for the summer periods 2006-07 to 2018-19 from three weather stations that surround the study area. We quantified the variability of rainfall using coefficient of variation and the standardized rainfall anomaly index, while temperature variability was reflected by the standardised temperature anomaly. In addition, the Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect temporal trends in rainfall and temperature. Longitudinal models accounting for socioeconomic and climate factors were used to estimate the relationship between weather and climate. The results reveal significant impact on food security from high inter-annual rainfall variability through fluctuations in food consumption, dietary diversity, and the experience of hunger. This study offers significant insights on how dietary diversity, food availability and overall food security are positively associated with greater average rainfall through subsistence agriculture as a livelihood strategy. These insights have important implications by suggesting seasonal forecasts to predict periods of potential food insecurity in local communities and can guide government policy and interventions to lessen food insecurity in rural areas.

The impact of COVID-19 on a cohort of origin residents and internal migrants from South Africa's rural northeast.

South Africa has a large temporary migrant population with people commonly moving to metropolitan areas to access employment, while maintaining links with their rural origin households. The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted patterns of movement, livelihoods and health seeking, and the effects on internal, temporary migrants are unclear. Using longitudinal data spanning 2018 to 2020, this paper employs descriptive statistics and regression analyses to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on a cohort of 2971 persons aged 18-40 at baseline, both residents and migrants, from a rural district in South Africa's northeast. In contrast with 2018-2019, in 2020 the share of rural residents initiating a migration decreased by 11 percentage points (p<0.001), while the share of temporary migrants returning to origin households increased by 5 percentage points (p<0.001). Study participants who were continuing migrants reported fewer job losses in comparison with rural-stayers, while 76% of return migrants who were employed in 2019 were no longer employed in 2020. Further, among those who did not experience food shortages in 2019, rural-stayers had 1.42 times the odds of continuing migrants of suffering shortages in 2020. In 2020 health service use in the cohort decreased overall, with return migrants having still lower odds of utilising health services. The results highlight the differential geographic and socioeconomic manifestations of the pandemic, with worsening socioeconomic circumstances observed for rural-staying (disproportionately female) and returning populations, while continuing migrants fared relatively better. It is vital that a COVID-19 response considers the potentially heterogeneous impact of the pandemic on mobile and stable populations. Policy responses may include targeting migrants at their destinations in health promotion of COVID-19 messaging, and strengthening health care and social support in origin communities in recognition that these areas receive return migrants into their catchment population.

The Crucial Role of Mothers and Siblings in Child Survival: Evidence From 29 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa.

A considerable body of research has studied the effects of siblings on child mortality through birth intervals. This research has commonly focused on older siblings. We argue that birth intervals with younger siblings may have equal or stronger effects on child mortality, even during a mother's pregnancy. Moreover, we contend that birth interval effects need to be considered only when siblings are coresident. Using longitudinal data from 29 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems across sub-Saharan Africa, covering more than 560,000 children, we examine the proximate role of siblings and mothers in child mortality. We find that a birth interval of 24 months or more is advantageous for both older and younger siblings. The effect of a younger sibling on child mortality is more pronounced than that of an older sibling and adds to the effect of an older sibling. Moreover, child mortality is particularly low during a mother's subsequent pregnancy, contrasting the shock resulting from a younger sibling's birth. Further, we find that a mother's or sibling's absence from the household results in a higher risk of mortality, and the death of either reduces child survival up to six months before the death.

Migrant health penalty: evidence of higher mortality risk among internal migrants in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: Despite the greater attention given to international migration, internal migration accounts for the majority of movements globally. However, research on the effects of internal migration on health is limited, with this relationship examined predominantly in urban settings among working-age adults, neglecting rural populations and younger and older ages.Objectives: Using longitudinal data from 29 mostly rural sub-Saharan African Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS), this study aims to explore life-course differences in mortality according to migration status and duration of residence.MethodsCox proportional hazards models are employed to analyse the relationship between migration and mortality in the 29 HDSS areas. The analytical sample includes 3 836,173 people and the analysis spans 25 years, from 1990 to 2015. We examine the risk of death by sex across five broad age groups (from ages 1 to 80), and consider recent and past in- and return migrants.Results: In-migrants have a higher risk of mortality compared to permanent rural residents, with return migrants at greater risk than in-migrants across all age-groups. Female migrants have lower survival chances than males, with greater variability by age. Risk of dying is highest among recent return migrant females aged 30-59: 1.86 (95% CI 1.69-2.06) times that of permanent residents. Only among males aged 15-29 who move to urban areas is there evidence of a 'healthy migrant' effect (HR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.51-0.77). There is clear evidence of an adaptation effect across all ages, with the risk of mortality reducing with duration following migration.Conclusions: Findings suggest that adult internal migrants, particularly females, suffer greater health disadvantages associated with migration. Policy makers should focus on improving migrant's interface with health services, and support the development of health education and promotion interventions to create awareness of localised health risks for migrants.

Protective Behaviors and Secondary Harms Resulting From Nonpharmaceutical Interventions During the COVID-19 Epidemic in South Africa: Multisite, Prospective Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: In March 2020, South Africa implemented strict nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the spread of COVID-19. Over the subsequent 5 months, NPI policies were eased in stages according to a national strategy. COVID-19 spread throughout the country heterogeneously; the disease reached rural areas by July and case numbers peaked from July to August. A second COVID-19 wave began in late 2020. Data on the impact of NPI policies on social and economic well-being and access to health care are limited. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine how rural residents in three South African provinces changed their behaviors during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave. METHODS: The South African Population Research Infrastructure Network nodes in the Mpumalanga (Agincourt), KwaZulu-Natal, (Africa Health Research Institute) and Limpopo (Dikgale-Mamabolo-Mothiba) provinces conducted up to 14 rounds of longitudinal telephone surveys among randomly sampled households from rural and periurban surveillance populations every 2-3 weeks. Interviews included questions on the following topics: COVID-19-related knowledge and behaviors, the health and economic impacts of NPIs, and mental health. We analyzed how responses varied based on NPI stringency and household sociodemographics. RESULTS: In total, 5120 households completed 23,095 interviews between April and December 2020. Respondents' self-reported satisfaction with their COVID-19-related knowledge and face mask use rapidly rose to 85% and 95%, respectively, by August. As selected NPIs were eased, the amount of travel increased, economic losses were reduced, and the prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms fell. When the number of COVID-19 cases spiked at one node in July, the amount of travel dropped rapidly and the rate of missed daily medications doubled. Households where more adults received government-funded old-age pensions reported concerns about economic matters and medication access less often. CONCLUSIONS: South Africans complied with stringent, COVID-19-related NPIs despite the threat of substantial social, economic, and health repercussions. Government-supported social welfare programs appeared to buffer interruptions in income and health care access during local outbreaks. Epidemic control policies must be balanced against the broader well-being of people in resource-limited settings and designed with parallel support systems when such policies threaten peoples' income and access to basic services.

Internal migration and health in South Africa: determinants of healthcare utilisation in a young adult cohort.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, human geographic mobility is high as people engage in both permanent and temporary relocation, predominantly from rural to urban areas. Such mobility can compromise healthcare access and utilisation. The objective of this paper is to explore healthcare utilisation and its determinants in a cohort of internal migrants and permanent residents (non-migrants) originating from the Agincourt sub-district in South Africa's rural northeast. METHODS: A 5-year cohort study of 3800 individuals aged 18 to 40 commenced in 2017. Baseline data have been collected from 1764 Agincourt residents and 1334 temporary, mostly urban-based, migrants, and are analysed using bivariate analyses, logistic and multinomial regression models, and propensity score matching analysis. RESULTS: Health service utilisation differs sharply by migrant status and sex. Among those with a chronic condition, migrants had 0.33 times the odds of non-migrants to have consulted a health service in the preceding year, and males had 0.32 times the odds of females of having used health services. Of those who utilised services, migration status was further associated with the type of healthcare utilised, with 97% of non-migrant rural residents having accessed government facilities, while large proportions of migrants (31%) utilised private health services or consulted traditional healers (25%) in migrant destinations. The multinomial logistic regression analysis indicated that, in the presence of controls, migrants had 8.12 the relative risk of non-migrants for utilising private healthcare (versus the government-services-only reference category), and 2.40 the relative risk of non-migrants for using a combination of public and private sector facilities. These findings of differential utilisation hold under statistical adjustment for relevant controls and for underlying propensity to migrate. CONCLUSIONS: Migrants and non-migrants in the study population in South Africa were found to utilise health services differently, both in overall use and in the type of healthcare consulted. The study helps improve upon the limited stock of knowledge on how migrants interface with healthcare systems in low and middle-income country settings. Findings can assist in guiding policies and programmes to be directed more effectively to the populations most in need, and to drive locally adapted approaches to universal health coverage.

Health and demographic surveillance systems in low- and middle-income countries: history, state of the art and future prospects.

Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) have been developed in several low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Africa and Asia. This paper reviews their history, state of the art and future potential and highlights substantial areas of contribution by the late Professor Peter Byass.Historically, HDSS appeared in the second half of the twentieth century, responding to a dearth of accurate population data in poorly resourced settings to contextualise the study of interventions to improve health and well-being. The progress of the development of this network is described starting with Pholela, and progressing through Gwembe, Balabgarh, Niakhar, Matlab, Navrongo, Agincourt, Farafenni, and Butajira, and the emergence of the INDEPTH Network in the early 1990'sThe paper describes the HDSS methodology, data, strengths, and limitations. The strengths are particularly their temporal coverage, detail, dense linkage, and the fact that they exist in chronically under-documented populations in LMICs where HDSS sites operate. The main limitations are generalisability to a national population and a potential Hawthorne effect, whereby the project itself may have changed characteristics of the population.The future will include advances in HDSS data harmonisation, accessibility, and protection. Key applications of the data are to validate and assess bias in other datasets. A strong collaboration between a national HDSS network and the national statistics office is modelled in South Africa and Sierra Leone, and it is possible that other low- to middle-income countries will see the benefit and take this approach.

Protective behaviours and secondary harms from non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa: a multisite prospective longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: In March 2020 South Africa implemented strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain Covid-19. Over the subsequent five months NPIs were eased in stages according to national strategy. Covid-19 spread throughout the country heterogeneously, reaching rural areas by July and peaking in July-August. Data on the impact of NPI policies on social and economic wellbeing and access to healthcare is limited. We therefore analysed how rural residents of three South African provinces changed their behaviour during the first epidemic wave. METHODS: The South African Population Research Infrastructure Network (SAPRIN) nodes in Mpumalanga (Agincourt), KwaZulu-Natal (AHRI) and Limpopo (DIMAMO) provinces conducted longitudinal telephone surveys among randomly sampled households from rural and peri-urban surveillance populations every 2-3 weeks. Interviews included questions on: Covid-19 knowledge and behaviours; health and economic impact of NPIs; and mental health. RESULTS: 2262 households completed 10,966 interviews between April and August 2020. By August, self-reported satisfaction with Covid-19 knowledge had risen from 48% to 85% and facemask use to over 95%. As selected NPIs were eased mobility increased, and economic losses and anxiety and depression symptoms fell. When Covid-19 cases spiked at one node in July, movement dropped rapidly, and missed daily medication rates doubled. Economic concerns and mental health symptoms were lower in households receiving a greater number of government-funded old-age pensions. CONCLUSIONS: South Africans reported complying with stringent Covid-19 NPIs despite the threat of substantial social, economic and health repercussions. Government-supported social welfare programmes appeared to buffer interruptions in income and healthcare access during local outbreaks. Epidemic control policies must be balanced against impacts on wellbeing in resource-limited settings and designed with parallel support systems where they threaten income and basic service access.

A training manual for event history analysis using longitudinal data.

OBJECTIVE: This research note reports on the activities of the Multi-centre Analysis of the Dynamics of Internal Migration And Health (MADIMAH) project aimed at collating and testing of a set of tools to conduct longitudinal event history analyses applied to standardised Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) datasets. The methods are illustrated using an example of longitudinal micro-data from the Agincourt HDSS, one of a number of open access datasets available through the INDEPTH iShare2 data repository. The research note documents the experience of the MADIMAH group in analysing HDSS data and demonstrates how complex analyses can be streamlined and conducted in an accessible way. These tools are aimed at aiding analysts and researchers wishing to conduct longitudinal data analysis of demographic events. RESULTS: The methods demonstrated in this research note may successfully be applied by practitioners to longitudinal micro-data from HDSS, as well as retrospective surveys or register data. The illustrations provided are accompanied by detailed, tested computer programs, which demonstrate the full potential of longitudinal data to generate both cross-sectional and longitudinal standard descriptive estimates as well as more complex regression estimates.

Dimensions of internal migration and their relationship to blood pressure in South Africa.

Hypertension prevalence is on the rise in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) like South Africa, and migration and its concomitant urbanization are often considered to be associated with this rise. However, relatively little is known about the relationship between blood pressure (BP) and internal migration - a highly prevalent population process in LMICs. This study employed data for a group of 194 adult men and women from an original pilot dataset drawn from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in north-east South Africa conducted in 2012. Migrants in the sample were identified, tracked and interviewed. The relationship between BP and migration distance and the number of months an individual spent away from his/her home village was estimated using robust OLS regression, controlling for a series of socioeconomic, health and behavioural characteristics. It was found that migrants who moved a longer distance and for longer durations had significantly higher systolic and diastolic blood pressures compared with shorter-term migrants and those who remained nearby or in their home village. These associations remained robust and statistically significant when adjusting for measures of socioeconomic conditions, as well as body mass index and the number of meals consumed per day. Migration, both in terms of distance and time away, explained significant variation in the blood pressure of migrants in this typical South African context. The findings suggest the need for further studies of the nutritional and psycho-social factors associated with geographic mobility that may be important to understand rising hypertension levels in LMICs.

Association between internal migration and epidemic dynamics: an analysis of cause-specific mortality in Kenya and South Africa using health and demographic surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Many low- and middle-income countries are facing a double burden of disease with persisting high levels of infectious disease, and an increasing prevalence of non-communicable disease (NCD). Within these settings, complex processes and transitions concerning health and population are underway, altering population dynamics and patterns of disease. Understanding the mechanisms through which changing socioeconomic and environmental contexts may influence health is central to developing appropriate public health policy. Migration, which involves a change in environment and health exposure, is one such mechanism. METHODS: This study uses Competing Risk Models to examine the relationship between internal migration and premature mortality from AIDS/TB and NCDs. The analysis employs 9 to 14 years of longitudinal data from four Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) of the INDEPTH Network located in Kenya and South Africa (populations ranging from 71 to 223 thousand). The study tests whether the mortality of migrants converges to that of non-migrants over the period of observation, controlling for age, sex and education level. RESULTS: In all four HDSS, AIDS/TB has a strong influence on overall deaths. However, in all sites the probability of premature death (45q15) due to AIDS/TB is declining in recent periods, having exceeded 0.39 in the South African sites and 0.18 in the Kenyan sites in earlier years. In general, the migration effect presents similar patterns in relation to both AIDS/TB and NCD mortality, and shows a migrant mortality disadvantage with no convergence between migrants and non-migrants over the period of observation. Return migrants to the Agincourt HDSS (South Africa) are on average four times more likely to die of AIDS/TB or NCDs than are non-migrants. In the Africa Health Research Institute (South Africa) female return migrants have approximately twice the risk of dying from AIDS/TB from the year 2004 onwards, while there is a divergence to higher AIDS/TB mortality risk amongst female migrants to the Nairobi HDSS from 2010. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that structural socioeconomic issues, rather than epidemic dynamics are likely to be associated with differences in mortality risk by migrant status. Interventions aimed at improving recent migrant's access to treatment may mitigate risk.