Improving the management procedures in farms infected with the Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome virus using PDP models.

Pig meat production need to be built up in the future due to the increase of the human population worldwide. To address this challenge, there is plenty of room for improvement in terms of pig production efficiency that could be severely hampered by the presence of diseases. In this sense, Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus (PRRSV) is one of the most costly disease present in industrial pork production in Europe and North America. We have developed a model to analyze the effect of different management procedures to control this important virus in different epidemiological scenarios. Our results clearly suggest that no cross-fostering during lactation and the maintaining of litter integrity significantly decrease the number of sick and dead animals during the rearing period compared to scenarios where cross-fostering and no litter integrity are practiced. These results highlight the relevance of different management strategies to control PRRSV and quantify the effect of limiting cross-fostering and avoiding mixing animals from different litters in PRRSV positive farms to optimize animal production. Our findings will allow pig farmers to apply these management procedures to control this disease under field conditions in a very cost-effective way.

Changes in eggshell thickness and ultrastructure in the Bearded Vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) Pyrenean population: A long-term analysis.

The Spanish Bearded Vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population has suffered from negative trends in a number of reproductive parameters that could jeopardize its long-term viability. From 1989 to 2012, 27 entire eggs and 63 eggshell fragments were collected from nests after breeding failure and/or fledging. Longer-term changes in eggshell thickness were made by examining 69 eggs collected in Spain from 1858 to 1911, and now held in European museums. Low levels of contamination with organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls were found in whole eggs and in conjunction with the high fertility rates observed in the field (66.7%) do not indicate a population suffering from the effects of organochlorine contamination. However, a decrease in the Ratcliffe Index and eggshell thickness were observed in eggs collected since 2001, increasingly so in samples post-2004, indicating an abrupt loss of egg quality. We found no significant relationship between organochlorine residues and eggshell in any of the variables measured. In contrast, we found a positive relationship between food availability and the Ratcliffe Index, eggshell thickness and eggshell surface area. A density-dependent explanation of reduced egg quality could arise from ecological constraints as the decrease of food resources. The impact of sudden changes in food availability due to sanitary regulations between 2006 and 2011 could be related with the loss of Bearded Vulture egg quality.

Assessing the impact of removal scenarios on population viability of a threatened, long-lived avian scavenger.

The removal of eggs or chicks from wild populations to create captive populations, reinforce free-ranging populations or reintroduce species into the wild is a restoration tool that requires an assessment of potential detrimental effects upon the donor population. This is an absolute prerequisite when wild donor populations are scarce and small. Here, we forecast the population trend of the largest European population of the bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) over the next 30 years under different demographic and management scenarios (removal of eggs, chicks or fledglings). Projections derived from the combination of a PDP model (Population Dynamic P-system) and a Box-Behnken design would lead to a decline in 77% of all 57 scenarios analysed. Among the 13 scenarios predicting a population increase, only 4 seem realistic in terms of growth rate (0.04%-1.01%), at least if current age at first breeding and productivity would remain constant over time. Our simulations thus suggest that most extraction scenarios would have detrimental effects on the demography of the donor population. Release of captive-born young or removal of only the second hatched chick for subsequent captive rearing and translocation into the wild appear to represent much better supplementation and reintroduction options in this threatened species.

Man-induced activities modify demographic parameters in a long-lived species: effects of poisoning and health policies.

Recent changes in sanitary policies within the European Union (EU) concerning disposal of carcasses of domestic animals and the increase of non-natural mortality factors, such as illegal poisoning, are threatening European vultures. However, the effects of anthropogenic activities on demographic parameters are poorly studied. Using a long-term study (1994-2011) of the threatened Pyrenean Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus population, we assess the variation in the proportion of breeding pairs, egg-laying dates, clutch size, breeding success, and survival following a sharp reduction in food availability in 2005 due to the application of restrictive sanitary policies decreasing livestock carcass availability. We found a delay in laying dates and a regressive trend in clutch size, breeding success, and survival following policy change. The maintenance of specific supplementary feeding stations for Bearded Vultures probably reduced the negative effects of illegal poisoning and food shortages, which mainly affected subadult survival. A drop in food availability may have produced changes in demographic parameters and an increase in mortality due to an increased exposure to contaminated food. As a result, supplementary feeding as a precautionary measure can be a useful tool to reduce illegal poisoning and declines in demographic parameters until previous food availability scenarios are achieved. This study shows how anthropogenic activities through human health regulations that affect habitat quality can suddenly modify demographic parameters in long-lived species, including those, such as survival, with high sensitivity to population growth rate.

Modelling the effects of sanitary policies on European vulture conservation.

Biodiversity losses are increasing as a consequence of negative anthropogenic effects on ecosystem dynamics. However, the magnitude and complexity of these effects may still be greatly underestimated. Most Old World vultures have experienced rapid population declines in recent years. In Europe, their immediate conservation depends on changes in health regulations affecting the availability of food provided by domestic carcasses. Information is lacking on the effects of a hypothetical food shortage on the population dynamics of vultures, and is necessary to assess the potential impacts of policy decisions on future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services. A novel computational model (P-systems) was used to model these effects, forecasting a rapid decline in the Eurasian griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus). By contrast, vulture species with greater plasticity in their dietary range appeared less sensitive to declining food availability. This study extends our understanding of vulture ecosystem services, which have social and economic implications.