Vaccination Is a Suitable Tool in the Control of Aujeszky's Disease Outbreaks in Pigs Using a Population Dynamics P Systems Model.

Aujeszky's disease is one of the main pig viral diseases and results in considerable economic losses in the pork production industry. The disease can be controlled using preventive measures such as improved stock management and vaccination throughout the pig-rearing period. We developed a stochastic model based on Population Dynamics P systems (PDP) models for a standard pig production system to differentiate between the effects of pig farm management regimes and vaccination strategies on the control of Aujeszky's disease under several different epidemiological scenarios. Our results suggest that after confirming the diagnosis, early vaccination of most of the population (>75%) is critical to decrease the spread of the virus and minimize its impact on pig productivity. The direct economic cost of an outbreak of Aujeszky's disease can be extremely high on a previously uninfected farm (from 352-792 Euros/sow/year) and highlights the positive benefits of investing in vaccination measures to control infections. We demonstrate the usefulness of computational models as tools in the evaluation of preventive medicine programs aimed at limiting the impact of disease on animal production.

Modeling the consequences of the demise and potential recovery of a keystone-species: wild rabbits and avian scavengers in Mediterranean landscapes.

Restoration of demised keystone-species populations is an overriding concern in conservation biology. However, since no population is independent of its environment, progress is needed in predicting the efficacy of restoration in unstable ecological contexts. Here, by means of Population Dynamics P-system Models (PDP), we studied long-term changes in the population size of Egyptian vultures (Neophron percnopterus) inhabiting a Natural Park, northern Spain, to changes in the numbers of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), a keystone-species of Mediterranean ecosystems that have suffered >90% population decline after a hemorrhagic disease outbreak. Low availability of rabbit carcasses leads Egyptian vultures to extend their foraging activities to unprotected areas with higher non-natural mortality whereas growing numbers of griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus), a dominant competitor, progressively monopolize trophic resources resulting in a focal population decrease. Modeling shows that, even if keystone-species populations recover in core protected areas, the return to the original studied population size may be unfeasible, due to both the high non-natural mortality rates in humanized areas and long-term changes in the scavenger guild structure. Policy decisions aimed to restore keystone-species should rely on holistic approaches integrating the effects of spatial heterogeneity on both producer and consumer populations as well as within-guild processes.

Population Dynamics P system (PDP) models: a standardized protocol for describing and applying novel bio-inspired computing tools.

Today, the volume of data and knowledge of processes necessitates more complex models that integrate all available information. This handicap has been solved thanks to the technological advances in both software and hardware. Computational tools available today have allowed developing a new family of models, known as computational models. The description of these models is difficult as they can not be expressed analytically, and it is therefore necessary to create protocols that serve as guidelines for future users. The Population Dynamics P systems models (PDP) are a novel and effective computational tool to model complex problems, are characterized by the ability to work in parallel (simultaneously interrelating different processes), are modular and have a high computational efficiency. However, the difficulty of describing these models therefore requires a protocol to unify the presentation and the steps to follow. We use two case studies to demonstrate the use and implementation of these computational models for population dynamics and ecological process studies, discussing briefly their potential applicability to simulate complex ecosystem dynamics.

Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations? An empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model.

BACKGROUND: The reduction in the amount of food available for European avian scavengers as a consequence of restrictive public health policies is a concern for managers and conservationists. Since 2002, the application of several sanitary regulations has limited the availability of feeding resources provided by domestic carcasses, but theoretical studies assessing whether the availability of food resources provided by wild ungulates are enough to cover energetic requirements are lacking. METHODOLOGY/FINDINGS: We assessed food provided by a wild ungulate population in two areas of NE Spain inhabited by three vulture species and developed a P System computational model to assess the effects of the carrion resources provided on their population dynamics. We compared the real population trend with to a hypothetical scenario in which only food provided by wild ungulates was available. Simulation testing of the model suggests that wild ungulates constitute an important food resource in the Pyrenees and the vulture population inhabiting this area could grow if only the food provided by wild ungulates would be available. On the contrary, in the Pre-Pyrenees there is insufficient food to cover the energy requirements of avian scavenger guilds, declining sharply if biomass from domestic animals would not be available. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results suggest that public health legislation can modify scavenger population trends if a large number of domestic ungulate carcasses disappear from the mountains. In this case, food provided by wild ungulates could be not enough and supplementary feeding could be necessary if other alternative food resources are not available (i.e. the reintroduction of wild ungulates), preferably in European Mediterranean scenarios sharing similar and socio-economic conditions where there are low densities of wild ungulates. Managers should anticipate the conservation actions required by assessing food availability and the possible scenarios in order to make the most suitable decisions.