Parallel prediction of dengue cases with different risks in Mexico using an artificial neural network model considering meteorological data.

In 2022, Mexico registered an increase in dengue cases compared to the previous year. On the other hand, the amount of precipitation reported annually was slightly less than the previous year. Similarly, the minimum-mean-maximum temperatures recorded annually were below the previous year. In the literature, it is possible to find studies focused on the spread of dengue only for some specific regions of Mexico. However, given the increase in the number of cases during 2022 in regions not considered by previously published works, this study covers cases reported in all states of the country. On the other hand, determining a relationship between the dynamics of dengue cases and climatic factors through a computational model can provide relevant information on the transmission of the virus. A multiple-learning computational approach was developed to simulate the number of the different risks of dengue cases according to the classification reported per epidemiological week by considering climatic factors in Mexico. For the development of the model, the data were obtained from the reports published in the Epidemiological Panorama of Dengue in Mexico and in the National Meteorological Service. The classification of non-severe dengue, dengue with warning signs, and severe dengue were modeled in parallel through an artificial neural network model. Five variables were considered to train the model: the monthly average of the minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures, the precipitation, and the number of the epidemiological week. The selection of variables in this work is focused on the spread of the different risks of dengue once the mosquito begins transmitting the virus. Therefore, temperature and precipitation were chosen as climatic factors due to the close relationship between the density of adult mosquitoes and the incidence of the disease. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was applied to fit the coefficients during the learning process. In the results, the ANN model simulated the classification of the different risks of dengue with the following precisions (R2): 0.9684, 0.9721, and 0.8001 for non-severe dengue, with alarm signs and severe, respectively. Applying a correlation matrix and a sensitivity analysis of the ANN model coefficients, both the average minimum temperature and precipitation were relevant to predict the number of dengue cases. Finally, the information discovered in this work can support the decision-making of the Ministry of Health to avoid a syndemic between the increase in dengue cases and other seasonal diseases.

Rehabilitation of social cognition impairment after traumatic brain injury: a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Many studies have described the presence of difficulty processing and generating social behaviour in patients who have suffered a traumatic brain injury (TBI). These difficulties in social cognition (SC) deteriorate personal relationships in the family, at work, or in the community. However, therapeutic programmes aiming to improve SC continue to be an outstanding issue in clinical practice. We performed a systematic review of the existing literature on the recovery of SC in patients with TBI, assessing the methodological quality of the included studies and the therapeutic effectiveness of the rehabilitation strategies used. DEVELOPMENT: We performed a bibliographic search of papers published before June 2018 in the Medline/PubMed, Google Scholar, PsycINFO, and ClinicalTrials.gov databases. Of the 198 potentially relevant articles, 10 met our eligibility criteria. Two of the authors independently and blindly assessed the methodological quality of these studies using the PEDro scale. CONCLUSIONS: The articles included in this systematic review essentially studied the effect of different interventions aimed at the rehabilitation of SC in patients with chronic TBIs. The analysis showed adequate methodological quality and an acceptable level of evidence. Future research should analyse the effect of these interventions in patients with TBIs in the sub- and post-acute phases.

Rehabilitación de la cognición social en el traumatismo craneoencefálico: una revisión sistemática / Rehabilitation of social cognition impairment after traumatic brain injury: A systematic review

Introducción: Múltiples estudios han descrito la presencia de dificultades para procesar y generar conductas de tipo social en pacientes que han sufrido un traumatismo craneoencefálico (TCE). Tales dificultades, englobadas bajo el término genérico de cognición social (CS), provocan un deterioro en las relaciones personales, tanto a nivel familiar como laboral o comunitario. No obstante, los programas terapéuticos dirigidos a la mejora de la CS continúan siendo una asignatura pendiente en la práctica clínica. El objetivo de este trabajo es realizar una revisión sistemática de la literatura existente sobre rehabilitación de la CS en pacientes con TCE, valorar su calidad metodológica y la efectividad terapéutica de las estrategias rehabilitadoras empleadas.DesarrolloSe realizó una búsqueda bibliográfica hasta junio de 2018 en las bases de datos Medline/PubMed, Google Scholar, PsycInfo y ClinicalTrials.gov. De los 198 artículos potencialmente interesantes, 10 cumplieron los criterios de elegibilidad. Dos de los autores evaluaron, de forma independiente y ciega, la calidad metodológica de los estudios incluidos en la revisión mediante la escala PEDro.ConclusionesLos artículos incluidos en esta revisión sistemática han estudiado esencialmente el efecto de diferentes intervenciones dirigidas a la rehabilitación de la CS en pacientes con TCEs en fase crónica. El análisis muestra que su calidad metodológica es adecuada y que el nivel de evidencia es aceptable. Se constata la necesidad de analizar el efecto de estas intervenciones en pacientes con TCE en fases subaguda y postaguda. (AU)

Introduction: Many studies have described the presence of difficulty processing and generating social behaviour in patients who have suffered a traumatic brain injury (TBI). These difficulties in social cognition (SC) deteriorate personal relationships in the family, at work, or in the community. However, therapeutic programmes aiming to improve SC continue to be an outstanding issue in clinical practice. We performed a systematic review of the existing literature on the recovery of SC in patients with TBI, assessing the methodological quality of the included studies and the therapeutic effectiveness of the rehabilitation strategies used.DevelopmentWe performed a bibliographic search of papers published before June 2018 in the Medline/PubMed, Google Scholar, PsycINFO, and ClinicalTrials.gov databases. Of the 198 potentially relevant articles, 10 met our eligibility criteria. Two of the authors independently and blindly assessed the methodological quality of these studies using the PEDro scale.ConclusionsThe articles included in this systematic review essentially studied the effect of different interventions aimed at the rehabilitation of SC in patients with chronic TBIs. The analysis showed adequate methodological quality and an acceptable level of evidence. Future research should analyse the effect of these interventions in patients with TBIs in the sub- and post-acute phases. (AU)

Comparison of an artificial neural network and Gompertz model for predicting the dynamics of deaths from COVID-19 in México.

The present work is focused on modeling and predicting the cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19 in México by comparing an artificial neural network (ANN) with a Gompertz model applying multiple optimization algorithms for the estimation of coefficients and parameters, respectively. For the modeling process, the data published by the daily technical report COVID-19 in Mexico from March 19th to September 30th were used. The data published in the month of October were included to carry out the prediction. The results show a satisfactory comparison between the real data and those obtained by both models with a R2 > 0.999. The Levenberg-Marquardt and BFGS quasi-Newton optimization algorithm were favorable for fitting the coefficients during learning in the ANN model due to their fast and precision, respectively. On the other hand, the Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm fitted the parameters of the Gompertz model faster by minimizing the sum of squares. Therefore, the ANN model better fits the real data using ten coefficients. However, the Gompertz model using three parameters converges in less computational time. In the prediction, the inverse ANN model was solved by a genetic algorithm obtaining the best precision with a maximum error of 2.22% per day, as opposed to the 5.48% of the Gompertz model with respect to the real data reported from November 1st to 15th. Finally, according to the coefficients and parameters obtained from both models with recent data, a total of 109,724 cumulative deaths for the inverse ANN model and 100,482 cumulative deaths for the Gompertz model were predicted for the end of 2020.

[The effect of traumatic brain injury on social decision making]. / Efecto del traumatismo craneoencefalico en la toma de decisiones sociales.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) can present difficulties in making decisions of a social nature. Such difficulties condition complicate their personal relationships. AIMS: To assess social decision-making in a sample of patients with moderate and severe TBI, and to empirically contrast if, as Ochsner's social-emotional processing model proposes, the ability to recognize and respond to socio-affective stimuli is related to the ability to regulate sensitive responses to the context based on the proposed assessment tests. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Twenty-one patients with a moderate and severe TBI (experimental group) matched by gender, age and years of education with 24 healthy subjects (control group). Social decision making was measured through the Social Decision Making Test (SDMT), and the ability to recognize and respond to socio-affective stimuli through the Pictures of Facial Affect (PoFA) test. RESULTS: Statistically significant differences in the SDMT were obtained between the experimental group and the control group. Regarding PoFA, the performance of the control group was also significantly better than that of the experimental group. However, no relationship was observed between the performance in the SDMT and the PoFA for any of the groups. CONCLUSIONS: The SDMT seems to be a sensitive test to detect alterations in social decision making in patients with moderate or severe TBI. No relationship was observed between the results in the SDMT and the PoFA.

TITLE: Efecto del traumatismo craneoencefalico en la toma de decisiones sociales.Introduccion. Los pacientes con traumatismo craneoencefalico (TCE) pueden presentar dificultades para tomar decisiones de tipo social. Tales dificultades condicionan un deterioro en sus relaciones personales. Objetivos. Valorar la toma de decisiones de tipo social en una muestra de pacientes con TCE moderado y grave y contrastar empiricamente si, como defiende el modelo de procesamiento socioemocional de Ochsner, la capacidad para reconocer y responder a estimulos socioafectivos se relaciona con la capacidad para regular respuestas sensibles al contexto basandose en las pruebas de valoracion propuestas. Sujetos y metodos. Muestra de 21 pacientes con TCE moderado y grave (grupo experimental), emparejados por sexo, edad y años de escolaridad con 24 sujetos sanos (grupo control). La toma de decisiones de tipo social se valoro mediante el Social Decision Making Test (SDMT), y la capacidad para reconocer y responder a estimulos socioafectivos, mediante el Pictures of Facial Affect (PoFA). Resultados. Se obtuvieron diferencias estadisticamente significativas entre el grupo experimental y el grupo control en el SDMT. Respecto al PoFA, el rendimiento del grupo control tambien fue sensiblemente mejor que el del grupo experimental. Sin embargo, no se observo relacion entre el rendimiento en el SDMT y el PoFA para ninguno de los grupos. Conclusiones. El SDMT parece ser una prueba sensible para detectar alteraciones en la toma de decisiones sociales en pacientes con TCE moderado o grave. No se ha observado relacion entre los resultados del SDMT y el PoFA.

Rehabilitation of social cognition impairment after traumatic brain injury: A systematic review. / Rehabilitación de la cognición social en el traumatismo craneoencefálico: una revisión sistemática.

INTRODUCTION: Many studies have described the presence of difficulty processing and generating social behaviour in patients who have suffered a traumatic brain injury (TBI). These difficulties in social cognition (SC) deteriorate personal relationships in the family, at work, or in the community. However, therapeutic programmes aiming to improve SC continue to be an outstanding issue in clinical practice. We performed a systematic review of the existing literature on the recovery of SC in patients with TBI, assessing the methodological quality of the included studies and the therapeutic effectiveness of the rehabilitation strategies used. DEVELOPMENT: We performed a bibliographic search of papers published before June 2018 in the Medline/PubMed, Google Scholar, PsycINFO, and ClinicalTrials.gov databases. Of the 198 potentially relevant articles, 10 met our eligibility criteria. Two of the authors independently and blindly assessed the methodological quality of these studies using the PEDro scale. CONCLUSIONS: The articles included in this systematic review essentially studied the effect of different interventions aimed at the rehabilitation of SC in patients with chronic TBIs. The analysis showed adequate methodological quality and an acceptable level of evidence. Future research should analyse the effect of these interventions in patients with TBIs in the sub- and post-acute phases.