Apparent Declining Prognostic Value of a Negative Stress Echocardiography Based on Regional Wall Motion Abnormalities in Patients With Normal Resting Left Ventricular Function Due to the Changing Referral Profile of the Population Under Study.

Background Cardiology guidelines identify the low-risk response during stress echocardiography as the absence of regional wall motion abnormalities. Methods From 1983 to 2016, we enrolled 5817 patients (age 63±12 years; 2830 males) with suspected coronary artery disease, normal regional, and global left ventricular function at rest and during stress (exercise in 692, dipyridamole in 4291, and dobutamine in 834). Based on timing of enrollment, 4 groups were identified in chronological order of recruitment: years 1983 to 1989, group 1 (n=211); years 1990 to 1999, group 2 (n=1491); years 2000 to 2009, group 3 (n=3285); and years 2010 to 2016, group 4 (n=830). Results There were 240 (4%) events (119 deaths and 121 infarctions) in the follow-up. At 1-year follow-up, the event rate was 0.5% (95% CI, 0.05-0.95), 1.5% (95% CI, -1.18 to 1.82), 1.9% (95% CI, 1.63-2.17), and 1.7% (95% CI, 1.01-2.39; χ2, 9.0; P=0.03) in groups 1 to 4, respectively. At multivariable Cox analysis, independent predictors of future events were age (hazard ratio (HR), 1.05; 95% CI, 1.04-1.07; P<0.0001), male sex (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.20-2.04; P=0.001), diabetes mellitus (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.34-2.37; P<0.0001), smoking habit (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.05-1.85; P=0.02), and ongoing anti-ischemic therapy (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.15-1.97; P=0.003) Conclusions Over the past 3 decades, we observed a progressive decline in the prognostic value of a negative test based on regional wall motion abnormalities, likely reflecting both an increase in risk in patients, as well as a potential decrease in test performance due to concomitant anti-ischemic therapy.

Drop-off in positivity rate of stress echocardiography based on regional wall motion abnormalities over the last three decades.

Previous studies have suggested a decline in positivity of stress cardiac imaging based on regional wall motion abnormalities (RWMA). To assess the rate of RWMA positivity of stress echocardiography (SE) over 3 decades in the same primary care SE lab. We retrospectively assessed the rate of SE positivity in 7626 SE tests (dipyridamole in 5053, dobutamine in 2496, exercise in 77) in consecutive patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease and /or heart failure who performed SE in a primary care referral center from April 1991 to May 2018. Starting April 2005, SE based on RWMA was complemented by assessment of coronary flow velocity reserve (CFVR) of the left anterior descending coronary artery. Starting October 2016, we added left ventricular contractile reserve (LVCR). Starting October 2016, we also added B-lines by lung ultrasound. There was a progressive decline over time in the rate of SE positivity based on RWMA from 24% (1991-1999) to 10% (2000-2009) down to 4% (2010-2018) (p < 0.0001). Positivity rate was 29% with CFVR, 16% with LVCR, and 12% with B-lines. Over three decades, we observed a dramatic decline in SE positivity rate based on classical RWMA. In the last decade, the positivity rate rose sharply thanks to the stepwise introduction of CFVR, LVCR and B-lines as additional positivity criteria in integrated quadruple SE.