PETRORISK: a risk assessment framework for petroleum substances.

PETRORISK is a modeling framework used to evaluate environmental risk of petroleum substances and human exposure through these routes due to emissions under typical use conditions as required by the European regulation for the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH). Petroleum substances are often complex substances comprised of hundreds to thousands of individual hydrocarbons. The physicochemical, fate, and effects properties of the individual constituents within a petroleum substance can vary over several orders of magnitude, complicating risk assessment. PETRORISK combines the risk assessment strategies used on single chemicals with the hydrocarbon block approach to model complex substances. Blocks are usually defined by available analytical characterization data on substances that are expressed in terms of mass fractions for different structural chemical classes that are specified as a function of C number or boiling point range. The physicochemical and degradation properties of the blocks are determined by the properties of representative constituents in that block. Emissions and predicted exposure concentrations (PEC) are then modeled using mass-weighted individual representative constituents. Overall risk for various environmental compartments at the regional and local level is evaluated by comparing the PECs for individual representative constituents to corresponding predicted no-effect concentrations (PNEC) derived using the Target Lipid Model. Risks to human health are evaluated using the overall predicted human dose resulting from multimedia environmental exposure to a substance-specific derived no-effect level (DNEL). A case study is provided to illustrate how this modeling approach has been applied to assess the risks of kerosene manufacture and use as a fuel.

Skin sensitization: modeling based on skin metabolism simulation and formation of protein conjugates.

A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) system for estimating skin sensitization potency has been developed that incorporates skin metabolism and considers the potential of parent chemicals and/or their activated metabolites to react with skin proteins. A training set of diverse chemicals was compiled and their skin sensitization potency assigned to one of three classes. These three classes were, significant, weak, or nonsensitizing. Because skin sensitization potential depends upon the ability of chemicals to react with skin proteins either directly or after appropriate metabolism, a metabolic simulator was constructed to mimic the enzyme activation of chemicals in the skin. This simulator contains 203 hierarchically ordered spontaneous and enzyme controlled reactions. Phase I and phase II metabolism were simulated by using 102 and 9 principal transformations, respectively. The covalent interactions of chemicals and their metabolites with skin proteins were described by 83 reactions that fall within 39 alerting groups. The SAR/QSAR system developed was able to correctly classify about 80% of the chemicals with significant sensitizing effect and 72% of nonsensitizing chemicals. For some alerting groups, three-dimensional (3D)-QSARs were developed to describe the multiplicity of physicochemical, steric, and electronic parameters. These 3D-QSARs, so-called pattern recognition-type models, were applied each time a latent alerting group was identified in a parent chemical or its generated metabolite(s). The concept of the mutual influence amongst atoms in a molecule was used to define the structural domain of the skin sensitization model. The utility of the structural model domain and the predictability of the model were evaluated using sensitization potency data for 96 chemicals not used in the model building. The TIssue MEtabolism Simulator (TIMES) software was used to integrate a skin metabolism simulator and 3D-QSARs to evaluate the reactivity of chemicals thus predicting their likely skin sensitization potency.

Guidelines for developing and using quantitative structure-activity relationships.

Numerous quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) have been developed to predict properties, fate, and effects of mostly discrete organic chemicals. As the demand for different types of regulatory testing increases and the cost of experimental testing escalates, there is a need to evaluate the use of QSARs and provide some guidance to avoid their misuse, especially as QSARs are being considered for regulatory purposes. This paper provides some guidelines that will promote the proper development and use of QSARs. While this paper uses examples of QSARs to predict toxicity, the proposed guidelines are applicable to QSARs used to predict physical or chemical properties, environmental fate, ecological effects and health effects.

Quantitative structure-activity relationships for predicting potential ecological hazard of organic chemicals for use in regulatory risk assessments.

The use of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) for deriving the predicted no-effect concentration of discrete organic chemicals for the purposes of conducting a regulatory risk assessment in Europe and the United States is described. In the United States, under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the TSCA Interagency Testing Committee and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) use SARs to estimate the hazards of existing and new chemicals. Within the Existing Substances Regulation in Europe, QSARs may be used for data evaluation, test strategy indications, and the identification and filling of data gaps. To illustrate where and when QSARs may be useful and when their use is more problematic, an example, methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), is given and the predicted and experimental data are compared. Improvements needed for new QSARs and tools for developing and using QSARs are discussed.