The risk of malaria infection for travelers visiting the Brazilian Amazonian region: A mathematical modeling approach.

BACKGROUND: Human mobility between malaria endemic and malaria-free areas can hinder control and elimination efforts in the Amazon basin, maintaining Plasmodium circulation and introduction to new areas. METHODS: The analysis begins by estimating the incidence of malaria in areas of interest. Then, the risk of infection as a function of the duration of stay after t0 was calculated as the number of infected travelers over the number of arrived travelers. Differential equations were employed to estimate the risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria in Amazonian municipalities. Risk was calculated as a result of the force of the infection in terms of local dynamics per time of arrival and duration of visit. RESULTS: Maximum risk occurred at the peak or at the end of the rainy season and it was nonlinearly (exponentially) correlated with the fraction of infected mosquitoes. Relationship between the risk of malaria and duration of visit was linear and positively correlated. Relationship between the risk of malaria and the time of arrival in the municipality was dependent on local effects of seasonality. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria is not negligible and can maintain regional circulation of parasites, propagating introductions in areas where malaria has been eliminated.

Plasmodium falciparum in the southeastern Atlantic forest: a challenge to the bromeliad-malaria paradigm?

BACKGROUND: Recently an unexpectedly high prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum was found in asymptomatic blood donors living in the southeastern Brazilian Atlantic forest. The bromeliad-malaria paradigm assumes that transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium malariae involves species of the subgenus Kerteszia of Anopheles and only a few cases of P. vivax malaria are reported annually in this region. The expectations of this paradigm are a low prevalence of P. vivax and a null prevalence of P. falciparum. Therefore, the aim of this study was to verify if P. falciparum is actively circulating in the southeastern Brazilian Atlantic forest remains. METHODS: In this study, anophelines were collected with Shannon and CDC-light traps in seven distinct Atlantic forest landscapes over a 4-month period. Field-collected Anopheles mosquitoes were tested by real-time PCR assay in pools of ten, and then each mosquito from every positive pool, separately for P. falciparum and P. vivax. Genomic DNA of P. falciparum or P. vivax from positive anophelines was then amplified by traditional PCR for sequencing of the 18S ribosomal DNA to confirm Plasmodium species. Binomial probabilities were calculated to identify non-random results of the P. falciparum-infected anopheline findings. RESULTS: The overall proportion of anophelines naturally infected with P. falciparum was 4.4% (21/480) and only 0.8% (4/480) with P. vivax. All of the infected mosquitoes were found in intermixed natural and human-modified environments and most were Anopheles cruzii (22/25 = 88%, 18 P. falciparum plus 4 P. vivax). Plasmodium falciparum was confirmed by sequencing in 76% (16/21) of positive mosquitoes, whereas P. vivax was confirmed in only 25% (1/4). Binomial probabilities suggest that P. falciparum actively circulates throughout the region and that there may be a threshold of the forested over human-modified environment ratio upon which the proportion of P. falciparum-infected anophelines increases significantly. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that P. falciparum actively circulates, in higher proportion than P. vivax, among Anopheles mosquitoes of fragments of the southeastern Brazilian Atlantic forest. This finding challenges the classical bromeliad-malaria paradigm, which considers P. vivax circulation as the driver for the dynamics of residual malaria transmission in this region.

Distinct population structure for co-occurring Anopheles goeldii and Anopheles triannulatus in Amazonian Brazil.

To evaluate whether environmental heterogeneity contributes to the genetic heterogeneity in Anopheles triannulatus, larval habitat characteristics across the Brazilian states of Roraima and Pará and genetic sequences were examined. A comparison with Anopheles goeldii was utilised to determine whether high genetic diversity was unique to An. triannulatus. Student t test and analysis of variance found no differences in habitat characteristics between the species. Analysis of population structure of An. triannulatus and An. goeldii revealed distinct demographic histories in a largely overlapping geographic range. Cytochrome oxidase I sequence parsimony networks found geographic clustering for both species; however nuclear marker networks depicted An. triannulatus with a more complex history of fragmentation, secondary contact and recent divergence. Evidence of Pleistocene expansions suggests both species are more likely to be genetically structured by geographic and ecological barriers than demography. We hypothesise that niche partitioning is a driving force for diversity, particularly in An. triannulatus.

Distinct population structure for co-occurring Anopheles goeldii and Anopheles triannulatus in Amazonian Brazil

To evaluate whether environmental heterogeneity contributes to the genetic heterogeneity in Anopheles triannulatus, larval habitat characteristics across the Brazilian states of Roraima and Pará and genetic sequences were examined. A comparison with Anopheles goeldii was utilised to determine whether high genetic diversity was unique to An. triannulatus. Student t test and analysis of variance found no differences in habitat characteristics between the species. Analysis of population structure of An. triannulatus and An. goeldii revealed distinct demographic histories in a largely overlapping geographic range. Cytochrome oxidase I sequence parsimony networks found geographic clustering for both species; however nuclear marker networks depicted An. triannulatus with a more complex history of fragmentation, secondary contact and recent divergence. Evidence of Pleistocene expansions suggests both species are more likely to be genetically structured by geographic and ecological barriers than demography. We hypothesise that niche partitioning is a driving force for diversity, particularly in An. triannulatus.