Improving access to healthcare in Ireland: an implementation failure.

There are significant barriers to accessing health and social care services in Ireland including high user charges, long waits and limited availability of some services. While a number of reform proposals have committed to improving access to health care, implementation of these proposals has been limited. The aim of this paper is to identify and discuss policy implementation failures concerned with improving access to health and social care services in Ireland. Four potential reasons for the repeated failure to implement stated reform proposals are identified including a failure to identify and address the practicalities of implementation, competing health care demands, the political cycle and stakeholder resistance. While there has been a shift in Irish health care policy documents in the last 10 years with increasing emphasis on ensuring access to health care based on need rather than ability to pay, a repeated failure to implement the proposed reforms raises questions as to whether there is a real commitment to improving access to health care.

Perinatal mortality in Ireland: inequalities by socio-economic group and country of birth.

BACKGROUND: While perinatal mortality rates have decreased in Ireland in recent years, it is not known if this reduction was shared equally among all groups. The aim of this study is to examine inequalities in perinatal mortality by country of birth and socio-economic group in Ireland between 2004 and 2019. METHODS: Data for the analysis was obtained from the National Perinatal Reporting System dataset, which includes all births (including stillbirths) in Ireland. The rate and risk ratios for perinatal death were calculated for mothers' socio-economic group and country of birth for two time periods (2004-11 and 2012-19). Adjustment was made for mothers' age, marital status, parity and country of birth/socio-economic group. A total of 995 154 births and 5710 perinatal deaths were included in the analysis. RESULTS: With the exception of African born mothers, the perinatal mortality rate decreased for all groups over time; however, inequalities persisted. Relative to Irish born mothers, the risk for African born mothers increased from 1.63 to 2.00 over time. Adjusting for other variables including socio-economic status reduced but did not eliminate this elevated relative risk. Mothers who were classified as unemployed or engaged in home duties had a higher risk of a perinatal death relative to higher professional mothers, with the relative risk remaining relatively constant over time. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing inequalities in health is a key objective of the Irish government. Further research is required to identify why perinatal mortality continues to be higher in some groups so that targeted action can be implemented.

Supporting sustainable long-term residential care in Ireland: a study protocol for the Sustainable Residential Care (SRC) project.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic brought to the fore deficiencies in the long-term residential care (LTRC) sector, including issues of governance, funding and staffing. Many of these issues pre-dated the pandemic and have contributed to concerns around the sustainability of the current model of LTRC in Ireland. The aim of the project detailed in this protocol is to provide an evidence base to help ensure the sustainability of the LTRC sector in Ireland within a new wider model of care for older people. The project includes three key objectives: (i) to describe and analyse the characteristics of LTRC homes across Ireland; (ii) to examine the association between LTRC home characteristics and COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths and (iii) to identify challenges to the sustainability of the LTRC sector within a COVID-19 environment and beyond. Bringing together the findings from these three objectives, the project will identify approaches and strategies which will help ensure the sustainability of LTRC that meets the needs of residents. The proposed research incorporates quantitative analyses and a review. Combining data from a variety of administration sources and using a variety of statistical techniques, the project will include a retrospective observational analysis of COVID-19 in LTRC homes in Ireland. Subsequently, a review will examine the current funding model of LTRC in Ireland, as well as the regulations and governance structure that underlie the system. The review will also examine international practices in these areas. Bringing together the findings from the quantitative analysis and the review and working with the knowledge users on the project, the project will build upon recent work in the area to identify the current challenges to the system of LTRC and possible solutions.

Palliative care interventions in advanced dementia.

BACKGROUND: Dementia is a chronic, progressive and ultimately fatal neurodegenerative disease. Advanced dementia is characterised by profound cognitive impairment, inability to communicate verbally and complete functional dependence. Usual care of people with advanced dementia is not underpinned universally by a palliative approach. Palliative care has focused traditionally on care of people with cancer, but for more than a decade, there have been calls worldwide to extend palliative care services to include all people with life-limiting illnesses in need of specialist care, including people with dementia. This review is an updated version of a review first published in 2016. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of palliative care interventions in advanced dementia. SEARCH METHODS: We searched ALOIS, the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group's Specialised Register on 7 October 2020. ALOIS contains records of clinical trials identified from monthly searches of several major healthcare databases, trial registries and grey literature sources. We ran additional searches across MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), four other databases and two trial registries on 7 October 2020 to ensure that the searches were as comprehensive and as up-to-date as possible. SELECTION CRITERIA: We searched for randomised (RCTs) and non-randomised controlled trials (nRCTs), controlled before-and-after studies and interrupted time series studies evaluating the impact of palliative care interventions for adults with advanced dementia of any type. Participants could be people with advanced dementia, their family members, clinicians or paid care staff. We included clinical interventions and non-clinical interventions. Comparators were usual care or another palliative care intervention. We did not exclude studies based on outcomes measured. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: At least two review authors (SW, EM, PC) independently assessed all potential studies identified in the search against the review inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted data from eligible studies. Where appropriate, we estimated pooled treatment effects in a fixed-effect meta-analysis. We assessed the risk of bias of included studies using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and the overall certainty of the evidence for each outcome using GRADE. MAIN RESULTS: Nine studies (2122 participants) met the review inclusion criteria. Two studies were individually-randomised RCTs, six were cluster-randomised RCTs and one was a controlled before-and-after study. We conducted two separate comparisons: organisation and delivery of care interventions versus usual care (six studies, 1162 participants) and advance care planning interventions versus usual care (three studies, 960 participants). Two studies were carried out in acute hospitals and seven in nursing homes or long-term care facilities. For both comparisons, we found the included studies to be sufficiently similar to conduct meta-analyses. Changes to the organisation and delivery of care for people with advanced dementia may increase comfort in dying (MD 1.49, 95% CI 0.34 to 2.64; 5 studies, 335 participants; very low certainty evidence). However, the evidence is very uncertain and unlikely to be clinically significant. These changes may also increase the likelihood of having a palliative care plan in place (RR 5.84, 95% CI 1.37 to 25.02; 1 study, 99 participants; I2 = 0%; very low certainty evidence), but again the evidence is very uncertain. Such interventions probably have little effect on the use of non-palliative interventions (RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.72; 2 studies, 292 participants; I2 = 0%; moderate certainty evidence). They may also have little or no effect on documentation of advance directives (RR 1.46, 95% CI 0.50 to 4.25; 2 studies, 112 participants; I2 = 52%; very low certainty evidence), or whether discussions take place about advance care planning (RR 1.08, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.18; 1 study, 193 participants; I2 = 0%; very low certainty evidence) and goals of care (RR 2.36, 95% CI 1.00 to 5.54; 1 study, 13 participants; I2 = 0%; low certainty evidence). No included studies assessed adverse effects. Advance care planning interventions for people with advanced dementia probably increase the documentation of advance directives (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.41; 2 studies, 384; moderate certainty evidence) and the number of discussions about goals of care (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.59; 2 studies, 384 participants; moderate certainty evidence). They may also slightly increase concordance with goals of care (RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.79; 1 study, 63 participants; low certainty evidence). On the other hand, they may have little or no effect on perceived symptom management (MD -1.80, 95% CI -6.49 to 2.89; 1 study, 67 participants; very low certainty evidence) or whether advance care planning discussions occur (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.24; 1 study, 67 participants; low certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence on palliative care interventions in advanced dementia is limited in quantity and certainty. When compared to usual care, changes to the organisation and delivery of care for people with advanced dementia may lead to improvements in comfort in dying, but the evidence for this was of very low certainty. Advance care planning interventions, compared to usual care, probably increase the documentation of advance directives and the occurrence of discussions about goals of care, and may also increase concordance with goals of care. We did not detect other effects. The uncertainty in the evidence across all outcomes in both comparisons is mainly driven by imprecision of effect estimates and risk of bias in the included studies.

Insurance status and waiting times for hospital-based services in Ireland.

In Ireland long waits for public hospital services are a feature of the healthcare system, with limited evidence that waits for private hospital services (delivered in both public and private hospitals) are shorter. In 2008, in an attempt to ensure more equitable access to hospital-based services, a 'common waiting list' for all patients within public hospitals was proposed. The aim of this paper is to analyse waiting times in Ireland for hospital services for patients with and without private health insurance (PHI) and to examine whether the 2008 reform reduced the differential in waiting. The analysis used data from the 2007 and 2010 health module of the Quarterly National Household survey (QNHS). The impact of insurance status on waiting times was analysed for the period before and after the reforms. A higher proportion of those without PHI were waiting more than three months for hospital services relative to those with PHI. There was no evidence that the 2008 reforms reduced the differential. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the proposals were not fully implemented, although expansion of capacity for private patients' treatment in private hospitals is a possible confounding factor.

The great convergence? Mortality in Ireland and Europe, 1956-2014.

BACKGROUND: Until recently, Irish age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were amongst the highest in the EU-15. This study examines changes in ASMRs in Ireland from 1956 to 2014. METHODS: Using data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database, we compare ASMRs in Ireland to other EU-15 countries from 1956 to 2014. ASMRS are used to plot the relative ranking of Ireland within the EU-15, and illustrate trends in which Ireland diverged with, and converged to, the EU-15 average. ASMRS are estimated across sex, age groups (15-64 and 65+ years) and cause of death. RESULTS: Between 1956 and 1999, ASMRs in Ireland were amongst the highest in the EU-15. ASMRs in Ireland saw slower improvements during this period as compared to other EU-15 countries. However, post-2000, a sharp reduction in Irish ASMRs resulted in an accelerated convergence to the EU-15 average. As a consequence of improvements in ASMRs between 2000 and 2014, there were an estimated 15 300 fewer deaths in 2014. The majority of these averted deaths were due to lower mortality rates for diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory system. CONCLUSIONS: Rather than converging to the EU-15 average during the latter half of the 20th century, there was a divergence in ASMRs between Ireland and the EU-15. However, in recent years, Ireland experienced accelerated improvements in mortality rates with large reductions in mortality observed for diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory system, especially amongst older people.

Re-thinking unmet need for health care: introducing a dynamic perspective.

There is an increasing interest in assessing unmet need for health care services particularly in European countries. Despite this there has been relatively little analysis of unmet need in the European or wider international setting. It remains a challenge to pin down what types of unmet need can and should be addressed by health care policymakers, and how to go about identifying and quantifying those unmet needs. The objective of this paper is to propose a new way of thinking about unmet need for health care which can in turn guide analysis of unmet need in terms of potential data sources and analytic approaches. Unmet need is shown to be a complex multi-faceted concept that cannot be captured by a single indicator or measurement. To advance the literature in this field, this paper considers what happens to unmet need over time. By introducing a dynamic perspective, three alternative trajectories for health care needs are outlined: non-use of health care, delayed use of health care and sub-optimal use of health care. These trajectories are discussed with a view to improving the focus, and policy applicability, of empirical research in this field.

Economics of dementia: A review of methods.

Given the expected increase in the number of people with dementia in the coming years, it is anticipated that the resources necessary to support those with dementia will significantly increase. There will therefore likely be increased emphasis on how best to use limited resources across a number of domains including prevention, diagnosis, treatment and supporting informal caregivers. There has been increasing use of economic methods in dementia in the past number of years, in particular, cost-of-illness analysis and economic evaluation. This paper reviews the aforementioned methods and identities a number of methodological issues that require development. Addressing these methodological issues will enhance the quality of economic analysis in dementia and provide some useful insights about the best use of limited resources for dementia.

A European late starter: lessons from the history of reform in Irish health care.

The Irish health care system is unusual within Europe in not providing universal, equitable access to either primary or acute hospital care. The majority of the population pays out-of-pocket fees to access primary health care. Due to long waits for public hospital care, many purchase private health insurance, which facilitates faster access to public and private hospital services. The system has been the subject of much criticism and repeated reform attempts. Proposals in 2011 to develop a universal health care system, funded by Universal Health Insurance, were abandoned in 2015 largely due to cost concerns. Despite this experience, there remains strong political support for developing a universal health care system. By applying an historical institutionalist approach, the paper develops an understanding of why Ireland has been a European outlier. The aim of the paper is to identify and discuss issues that may arise in introducing a universal healthcare system to Ireland informed by an understanding of previous unsuccessful reform proposals. Challenges in system design faced by a late-starter country like Ireland, including overcoming stakeholder resistance, achieving clarity in the definition of universality and avoiding barriers to access, may be shared by countries whose universal systems have been compromised in the period of austerity.

Unmet healthcare needs in Ireland: Analysis using the EU-SILC survey.

The analysis used the 2013 Survey of Income and Living Conditions to examine the extent and causes of unmet need for healthcare services in Ireland. The analysis found that almost four per cent of participants reported an unmet need for medical care. Overall, lower income groups, those with poorer health status and those without free primary care and/or private insurance were more likely to report an unmet healthcare need. The impact of income on the likelihood of reporting an unmet need was particularly strong for those without free primary care and/or private insurance, suggesting a role for the health system in eradicating income based inequalities in unmet need. Factors associated with the healthcare system - cost and waiting lists - accounted for the majority of unmet needs. Those with largely free public healthcare entitlement were more likely than all other eligibility categories to report that their unmet need was due to waiting lists (rather than cost). While not possible to explicitly examine in this analysis, it is probable that unmet need due to cost is picking up on the relatively high out-of-pocket payments for primary care for those who must pay for GP visits; while unmet need due to waiting is identifying the relatively long waiting times within the acute hospital sector for those within the public system.

Palliative care interventions in advanced dementia.

BACKGROUND: Dementia is a chronic, progressive and ultimately fatal neurodegenerative disease. Advanced dementia is characterised by profound cognitive impairment, inability to communicate verbally and complete functional dependence. Usual care of people with advanced dementia is not underpinned universally by a palliative approach. Palliative care has focused traditionally on care of people with cancer but for more than a decade, there have been increased calls worldwide to extend palliative care services to include all people with life-limiting illnesses in need of specialist care, including people with dementia. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of palliative care interventions in advanced dementia and to report on the range of outcome measures used. SEARCH METHODS: We searched ALOIS, the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group's Specialized Register on 4 February 2016. ALOIS contains records of clinical trials identified from monthly searches of several major healthcare databases, trial registries and grey literature sources. We ran additional searches across MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), PsycINFO (OvidSP), CINAHL (EBSCOhost), LILACS (BIREME), Web of Science Core Collection (ISI Web of Science), ClinicalTrials.gov and the World Health Organization ICTRP trial portal to ensure that the searches were as comprehensive and as up-to-date as possible. SELECTION CRITERIA: We searched for randomised (RCT) and non-randomised controlled trials (nRCT), controlled before-and-after studies (CBA) and interrupted time series studies evaluating the impact of palliative care interventions for adults with dementia of any type, staged as advanced dementia by a recognised and validated tool. Participants could be people with advanced dementia, their family members, clinicians or paid care staff. We included clinical interventions and non-clinical interventions. Comparators were usual care or another palliative care intervention. We did not exclude studies on the basis of outcomes measured and recorded all outcomes measured in included studies. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed for inclusion all the potential studies we identified as a result of the search strategy. We resolved any disagreement through discussion or, when required, consulted with the rest of the review team. We independently extracted data and conducted assessment of methodological quality, using standard Cochrane methods. MAIN RESULTS: We identified two studies of palliative care interventions for people with advanced dementia. We did not pool data due to the heterogeneity between the two trials in terms of the interventions and the settings. The two studies measured 31 different outcomes, yet they did not measure the same outcome. There are six ongoing studies that we expect to include in future versions of this review.Both studies were at high risk of bias, in part because blinding was not possible. This and small sample sizes meant that the overall certainty of all the evidence was very low.One individually randomised RCT (99 participants) evaluated the effect of a palliative care team for people with advanced dementia hospitalised for an acute illness. While this trial reported that a palliative care plan was more likely to be developed for participants in the intervention group (risk ratio (RR) 5.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37 to 25.02), the plan was only adopted for two participants, both in the intervention group, while in hospital. The palliative care plan was more likely to be available on discharge in the intervention group (RR 4.50, 95% CI 1.03 to 19.75). We found no evidence that the intervention affected mortality in hospital (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.53 to 2.13), decisions to forgo cardiopulmonary resuscitation in hospital or the clinical care provided during hospital admission, but for the latter, event rates were low and the results were associated with a lot of uncertainty.One cluster RCT (256 participants, each enrolled with a family carer) evaluated the effect of a decision aid on end-of-life feeding options on surrogate decision-makers of nursing home residents with advanced dementia. Data for 90 participants (35% of the original study) met the definition of advanced dementia for this review and were re-analysed for the purposes of the review. In this subset, intervention surrogates had lower scores for decisional conflict measured on the Decisional Conflict Scale (mean difference -0.30, 95% CI -0.61 to 0.01, reduction of 0.3 to 0.4 units considered meaningful) and were more likely than participants in the control group to discuss feeding options with a clinician (RR 1.57, 95% CI 0.93 to 2.64), but imprecision meant that there was significant uncertainty about both results. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Very little high quality work has been completed exploring palliative care interventions in advanced dementia. There were only two included studies in this review, with variation in the interventions and in the settings that made it impossible to conduct a meta-analysis of data for any outcome. Thus, we conclude that there is insufficient evidence to assess the effect of palliative care interventions in advanced dementia. The fact that there are six ongoing studies at the time of this review indicates an increased interest in this area by researchers, which is welcome and needed.

The 2011 proposal for Universal Health Insurance in Ireland: Potential implications for healthcare expenditure.

The Irish healthcare system has long been criticised for a number of perceived weaknesses, including access to healthcare based on ability-to-pay rather than need. Consequently, in 2011, a newly elected government committed to the development of a universal, single-tier system based on need and financed through Universal Health Insurance (UHI). This article draws on the national and international evidence to identify the potential impact of the proposed model on healthcare expenditure in Ireland. Despite a pledge that health spending under UHI would be no greater than in the current predominantly tax-funded model, the available evidence is suggestive that the proposed model involving competing insurers would increase healthcare expenditure, in part due to an increase in administrative costs and profits. As a result the proposed model of UHI appears to be no longer on the political agenda. Although the Government has been criticised for abandoning its model of UHI, it has done so based on national and international evidence about the relatively high additional costs associated with this particular model.

End-of-life management in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Most health-care professionals are trained to promote and maintain life and often have difficulty when faced with the often rapid decline and death of people with terminal illnesses such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). By contrast, data suggest that early and open discussion of end-of-life issues with patients and families allows time for reflection and planning, can obviate the introduction of unwanted interventions or procedures, can provide reassurance, and can alleviate fear. Patients' perspectives regarding end-of-life interventions and use of technologies might differ from those of the health professionals involved in their care, and health-care professionals should recognise this and respect the patient's autonomy. Advance care directives can preserve autonomy, but their legal validity and use varies between countries. Clinical management of the end of life should aim to maximise quality of life of both the patient and caregiver and, when possible, incorporate appropriate palliation of distressing physical, psychosocial, and existential distress. Training of health-care professionals should include the development of communication skills that help to sensitively manage the inevitability of death. The emotional burden for health-care professionals caring for people with terminal neurological disease should be recognised, with structures and procedures developed to address compassion, fatigue, and the moral and ethical challenges related to providing end-of-life care.

Health and social care costs of managing amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS): an Irish perspective.

The aim of this study was to quantify the health and social care costs associated with managing amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in Ireland. Resource use of a representative group of deceased ALS patients attending a multidisciplinary ALS clinic was identified from a retrospective chart review and telephone interview with the main caregiver. Unit cost estimates were applied to each resource to identify the cost per patient. Cost drivers were identified using multivariate linear regression. Results showed that from time of diagnosis to death, the cost per month was €1795, 21% of which was attributable to costs associated with the multidisciplinary clinic, 72% to community based care and 7% to aids and appliances. Higher monthly cost was associated with shorter survival and use of gastrostomy and non-invasive ventilation. In conclusion, ALS imposes a significant cost burden on the health services. More work is required to quantify the costs in other sectors, including informal care and productivity losses.

The impact of dementia on length of stay in acute hospitals in Ireland.

The outcomes for those with dementia admitted to acute hospitals are often poor, with higher mortality, increased risk of institutionalisation and longer length of stay. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of dementia on length of stay and the associated cost of care in acute hospitals in Ireland. People with a recorded diagnosis of dementia were found to have a significantly longer length of stay than those with no recorded dementia. Multiplying the excess length of stay by the number of dementia-related admissions gave an estimate of 246,908 additional hospital days per annum due to dementia at an associated additional annual cost of over €199 million. Improving the experience of those with dementia in acute hospitals will likely lead to cost savings for the health service; however, it will require a number of measures including: earlier diagnosis, training for medical professionals and improvements in the built environment.

The impact of reminiscence on the quality of life of residents with dementia in long-stay care.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing recognition of the potential use of reminiscence in maintaining or improving the quality of life of people with dementia. Despite being used widely in dementia care, evidence on the effectiveness of reminiscence remains uncertain. AIMS: This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a structured education-based reminiscence programme-the Dementia Education Programme Incorporating Reminiscence for Staff-for people with dementia residing in long-stay care settings in Ireland. METHODS: Dementia Education Programme Incorporating Reminiscence for Staff is a two-group, single-blind, cluster randomised trial conducted in long-stay residential care settings in Ireland. The primary outcome was the self-rated quality of life of residents as measured by the Quality of Life-Alzheimer's Disease instrument. RESULTS: Using an intention-to-treat analysis, we found that the estimated effect of the intervention on the quality of life of residents was a non-significant 3.54 (p = 0.1; 95% confidence interval -0.83, 7.90), expressed as the difference in mean improvement between the intervention and control groups. However, the per-protocol analysis yielded a significant effect for the intervention on the quality of life of residents of 5.22 (p = 0.04; 95% confidence interval 0.11, 10.34). CONCLUSIONS: Reminiscence may, in certain circumstances, be an effective care option for people with dementia in long-stay settings with potential to impact positively on the quality of life of residents.

Estimating the economic and social costs of dementia in Ireland.

Dementia is a costly condition and one that differs from other conditions in the significant cost burden placed on informal caregivers. The aim of this analysis was to estimate the economic and social costs of dementia in Ireland in 2010. With an estimate of 41,470 people with dementia, the total baseline annual cost was found to be over €1.69 billion, 48% of which was attributable to the opportunity cost of informal care provided by family and friends and 43% to residential care. Due to the impact of demographic ageing in the coming decades and the expected increase in the number of people with dementia, family caregivers and the general health and social care system will come under increasing pressure to provide adequate levels of care. Without a significant increase in the amount of resources devoted to dementia, it is unclear how the system will cope in the future.

Variation in mortality by country of birth in Northern Ireland: a record linkage study.

The study of health differences between those residing in the same country but originating in different countries is a potential source of insight into the causes of ill-health. Within Northern Ireland, those born in England, Wales, the Republic of Ireland and outside of the British Isles have a lower mortality risk than the Northern Ireland born; however, these differentials are largely explained by the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of these migrants. Conversely, the Scottish born residing in Northern Ireland have higher mortality than the Northern Ireland born, especially from ischemic heart disease, suggesting that the Scottish immigrants maintain the health disadvantage of their country of birth.

The effect of population movement on the spatial distribution of socio-economic and health status: analysis using the Northern Ireland mortality study.

This paper examines the impact of population movement on the spatial distribution of socio-economic and health status in Northern Ireland. Five percent of the population cohort changed decile of deprivation between 2000 and 2001, resulting in a net gain in more affluent deciles and a net loss in more deprived areas. In addition, there was a net gain of relatively more affluent people in the more affluent deciles and a net loss of such people from more deprived deciles. However, this selective mobility had a minimal impact on the spatial distribution of health. More pronounced effects may be observed in longer periods of follow-up.