Economic Evaluation of the Protecting Teeth @ 3 Randomized Controlled Trial.

INTRODUCTION: An economic evaluation (EE) was conducted alongside a randomized controlled trial (the Protecting Teeth @ 3 Study [PT@3]), exploring the additional preventive value of fluoride varnish (FV) application at 6-monthly intervals in nursery schools compared to treatment as usual (TAU) in the same nurseries. TAU represented a multicomponent national child oral health improvement intervention, the Childsmile program, apart from nursery FV. METHODS: The EE was a within-trial cost-utility analysis (CUA) comparing the FV and TAU groups. The CUA was conducted from a National Health Service perspective and followed relevant methods guidance. Within-trial costs included intervention costs and health care resource use costs. Health outcomes were expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) accrued over the 2-y follow-up period. The Child Health Utility 9 Dimensions questionnaire was used to obtain utility scores. National reference costs were used, a discount rate of 1.5% for public health interventions was adopted, multiple imputation methods for missing data were employed, sensitivity analyses were conducted, and incremental cost-utility ratios were calculated. RESULTS: Data from 534 participants from the 2014-2015 PT@3 intake were used in the EE analyses, n = 265 (50%) in the FV arm and n = 269 (50%) in the TAU arm. Mean incremental cost per child in the FV arm was £68.37 (P = 0.382; 95% confidence interval [CI], -£18.04 to £143.82). Mean incremental QALY was -0.004 (P = 0.636; 95% CI, -0.016 to 0.007). The probability that the FV intervention was cost-effective at the UK £20,000 threshold was 11.3%. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that applying FV in nurseries in addition to TAU (all other components of Childsmile, apart from nursery FV) would not be deemed cost-effective given current UK thresholds. In view of previously proven clinical effectiveness and economic worthiness of the universal nursery toothbrushing component of Childsmile, continuation of the additional, targeted nursery FV component in its pre-COVID-19 form should be reviewed given its low probability of cost-effectiveness. KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT: The results of this study can be used by child oral health policy makers and dental public health professionals. They can form part of the evidence to inform the Scottish, UK, and international guidance on community-based child oral health promotion programs.

A Health Inequalities Impact Assessment of the surveillance of COVID-19 in asymptomatic patients attending dental settings in Scotland.

INTRODUCTION: A key aspect of the public health response to COVID-19 in Scotland was enhanced community surveillance, including testing in dental settings. Across Scotland, dental settings offered patients over 5-years-old the opportunity to participate in community surveillance of COVID-19. METHODS: A Health Inequalities Impact Assessment (HIIA) was conducted to understand the differential impacts the programme would have on the population and to improve the accessibility of the programme. HIIA is a tool to allow the assessment, understanding, and mitigation of impacts on people of a proposed policy or practice. It fulfils an organisational duty to meet the requirements of the Equality Act and Fairer Scotland Duty. The HIIA was conducted rapidly in parallel with the programme development. An action research approach included an online workshop, consultation, review of population data and a literature search. RESULTS: Adjustments were required to improve the programme's accessibility. Stakeholders, including dental teams from across Scotland were involved in the consultation and brought their front-line experience in different settings. Common issues identified included digital literacy and access, language and cultural barriers to participation, and issues relating to the implications of a positive COVID-19 result. Literature indicated limited evidence on the acceptability, accessibility, and equity of asymptomatic COVID-19 surveillance. CONCLUSION: This HIIA was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. As an example of good practice in tackling inequalities in access to programmes it should represent the benchmark for other similar initiatives.

SARS-CoV-2 Positivity in Asymptomatic-Screened Dental Patients.

Enhanced community surveillance is a key pillar of the public health response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Asymptomatic carriage of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a potentially significant source of transmission, yet remains relatively poorly understood. Disruption of dental services continues with significantly reduced capacity. Ongoing precautions include preappointment and/or at appointment COVID-19 symptom screening and use of enhanced personal protective equipment (PPE). This study aimed to investigate SARS-CoV-2 infection in dental patients to inform community surveillance and improve understanding of risks in the dental setting. Thirty-one dental care centers across Scotland invited asymptomatic-screened patients aged over 5 y to participate. Following verbal consent and completion of sociodemographic and symptom history questionnaire, trained dental teams took a combined oropharyngeal and nasal swab sample using standardized Viral Transport Medium-containing test kits. Samples were processed by the Lighthouse Lab and patients informed of their results by SMS/email with appropriate self-isolation guidance in the event of a positive test. All positive cases were successfully followed up by the national contact tracing program. Over a 13-wk period (from August 3, 2020, to October 31, 2020), 4,032 patients, largely representative of the population, were tested. Of these, 22 (0.5%; 95% CI, 0.5%-0.8%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. The positivity rate increased over the period, commensurate with uptick in community prevalence identified across all national testing monitoring data streams. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a COVID-19 testing survey in asymptomatic-screened patients presenting in a dental setting. The positivity rate in this patient group reflects the underlying prevalence in community at the time. These data are a salient reminder, particularly when community infection levels are rising, of the importance of appropriate ongoing infection prevention control and PPE vigilance, which is relevant as health care team fatigue increases as the pandemic continues. Dental settings are a valuable location for public health surveillance.

A Prospective Cohort Study of Human Papillomavirus-Driven Oropharyngeal Cancers: Implications for Prognosis and Immunisation.

AIMS: Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is increasing on a global scale, including the component driven by high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV); contemporary data that provides insight into the prognosis of this disease in addition to the fraction attributable to HR-HPV are essential to inform primary and secondary disease management strategies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A population-based cohort of 235 patients diagnosed with OPC between 2013 and 2015 in Scotland was assessed for HPV status using molecular genotyping. Associations between HR-HPV status and key clinical and demographic variables were estimated using the Pearson chi-squared test. Rates of overall survival and progression-free survival were estimated and visualised using Kaplan-Meier curves. RESULTS: HPV DNA (largely HPV 16) was identified in 60% of cases. After adjustment for age, gender, deprivation, smoking, alcohol consumption and tumour stage, patients with HR-HPV-positive OPC had an 89% reduction in the risk of death (hazard ratio = 0.11, 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.25) and an 85% reduction in the risk of disease progression (hazard ratio = 0.15, 95% confidence interval 0.07-0.30). HPV positivity was not associated with age, deprivation or smoking status, whereas those who reported excess alcohol consumption were less likely to be positive for HR-HPV. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of HR-HPV-associated OPC is high in Scotland and strongly associated with dramatically improved clinical outcomes, including survival. Demographic/behavioural variables did not reliably predict HPV positivity in this cohort, which underlines the importance of laboratory confirmation. Finally, the dominance of HPV 16 in OPC indicates the significant impact of prophylactic immunisation on this disease.

The changing epidemiology of oral cancer: definitions, trends, and risk factors.

Objective: This review has three objectives, namely: (i) to discuss how oral cancer is and ought to be defined and recorded; (ii) to present up-to-date data on the incidence burden of the disease in the four countries of the UK, and review recent analyses of trends in the disease; and (iii) to summarise recent evidence on risk factors of the disease. Methods: Cancer definitions were clarified by the International Classification of Diseases accounting for anatomical and aetiological differences; descriptive epidemiology included international / UK literature review and information requests for incidence data from the UK cancer registries (2000-2016); analytical epidemiology focused on reviewing the findings of the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium, which has pooled data from multiple case-control studies providing the best estimates of risk factors. Results: Emerging evidence of the role played by risk factors in different anatomical sites means that oral cavity cancer and oropharynx cancer should be considered distinct disease entities ­ and a standardised attribution of anatomical subsites will be helpful in ensuring consistency in how data are presented. In 2016, over 3,700 people were diagnosed with oral cavity cancer and over 3,500 people were diagnosed with oropharyngeal cancer in the UK. Incidence of oropharyngeal cancer is rapidly rising across the UK. Rates of oral cavity cancer are higher in Northern Ireland and higher still (and relatively stable) in Scotland, but rising in England and Wales. INHANCE data show that while the consumption of alcohol and tobacco are the prime risk factors for oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancers, they provide greater certainty in the preventive benefits of reducing these risk factors. The role played by other factors such as low socioeconomic status, genetics, oral health, and human papillomavirus (only for oropharyngeal cancer) have become clearer. Conclusions: This epidemiology provides a strong foundation for designing and managing both population and individual oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer control strategies.

Is detecting oral cancer in general dental practices a realistic expectation? A population-based study using population linked data in Scotland.

Aims: To examine, for the first time on a population-basis via data linkage, whether early detection by general dental practices (GDP) is a realistic expectation by i) estimating the number of OC cases/year a dentist in Scotland may encounter over time, accounting for the deprivation level of practice location and dental registration/attendance rates, and ii) assessing whether patients attended GDPs two years pre-diagnosis. Materials and methods: Scottish Cancer Registry data on all OC cases (2010-2012), published NHS Scotland dental workforce and registration/participation statistics, and individual patient data linked with NHS dental service activity were analysed. Results: Dentists were estimated to potentially encounter one case of OC every 10 years, OCC every 16.7 years, and OPC every 25 years. However, 53.7% of OC patients had made no dental contact two years pre-diagnosis. Conclusion: Strategies for early detection must consider the rarity of OC incidence and poor dental attendance patterns. These results highlight the importance of improving access and uptake of dental services among those at highest risk to increase the opportunities for early detection.

Predictors of oropharyngeal cancer survival in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) patients experience better outcomes compared to HPV16-negative patients. Currently, strategies for treatment de-escalation are based on HPV status, smoking history and disease stage. However, the appropriate cut-point for smoking and the role of other non-clinical factors in OPC survival remains uncertain. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We examined factors associated with OPC outcome in 321 patients recruited in a large European multi-center study. Seropositivity for HPV16 E6 was used as a marker of HPV16 positive cancer. Hazard ratios (HR) and confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional models adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Overall 5-year survival following OPC diagnosis was 50%. HPV16-positive OPC cases were at significantly lower risk of death (aHR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.32-0.80). A significant effect on OPC survival was apparent for female sex (aHR 0.50: 95% CI: 0.29-0.85) and being underweight at diagnosis (aHR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.38-4.21). A 10 pack year smoking history was not associated with overall survival. Higher stage at diagnosis appeared as the only factor significantly associated with OPC recurrence (aHR: 4.88, 95% CI: 2.12-11.21). CONCLUSION: This study confirms that HPV16 status is an independent prognostic factor for OPC survival while female sex lowers risk of death and being underweight at diagnosis increases the risk of death. Smoking was not an independent predictor of OPC survival.

Presenting symptoms and long-term survival in head and neck cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To assess how type and number of symptoms are related to survival in patients with head and neck cancer. DESIGN: Patients were followed up for over 10 years from the Scottish Audit of Head and Neck Cancer (national cohort of head and neck cancer patients in Scotland 1999-2001). September 2013, cohort was linked to national mortality data. First, second and third presenting symptoms were recorded at diagnosis. SETTING: National prospective audit-Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: A subset of 1589 patients, from the original cohort of 1895, who had cancer arising from one of the four main subsites; larynx, oropharynx, oral cavity and hypopharynx. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Median survival in relation to patients' presenting symptoms. RESULTS: A total of 1146 (72%) males and 443 (28%) females, mean age at diagnosis 64 years (13-95). There was a significant difference in survival in relation to the number of the patient's presenting symptoms; one symptom had a median survival of 5.3 years compared with 1.1 years for three symptoms. Patients who presented with weight loss had a median survival of 0.8 years, compared to 4.2 years if they did not (P < .001). Patients who presented with hoarseness had a median survival of 5.9 years compared to 2.6 years without (P < .001). There was no significant difference in long-term survival for patients who presented with an ulcer, compared to those that did not (P = .105). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of patients' presenting symptoms, giving valuable information in highlighting appropriate "red flag" symptoms and subsequent treatment planning and prognosis.

Linking routinely collected social work, education and health data to enable monitoring of the health and health care of school-aged children in state care ('looked after children') in Scotland: a national demonstration project.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Children in state care ('looked after children') have poorer health than children who are not looked after. Recent developments in Scotland and elsewhere have aimed to improve services and outcomes for looked after children. Routine monitoring of the health outcomes of looked after children compared to those of their non-looked after peers is currently lacking. Developing capacity for comparative monitoring of population-based outcomes based on linkage of routinely collected administrative data has been identified as a priority. To our knowledge there are no existing population-based data linkage studies providing data on the health of looked after and non-looked after children at national level. Smaller scale studies that are available generally provide very limited information on linkage methods and hence do not allow scrutiny of bias that may be introduced through the linkage process. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: National demonstration project testing the feasibility of linking routinely collected looked after children, education and health data. PARTICIPANTS: All children in publicly funded school in Scotland in 2011/12. RESULTS: Linkage between looked after children data and the national pupil census classified 10,009 (1.5%) and 1757 (0.3%) of 670,952 children as, respectively, currently and previously looked after. Recording of the unique pupil identifier (Scottish Candidate Number, SCN) on looked after children returns is incomplete, with 66% of looked after records for 2011/12 for children of possible school age containing a valid SCN. This will have resulted in some under-ascertainment of currently and, particularly, previously looked after children within the general pupil population. Further linkage of the pupil census to the National Health Service Scotland master patient index demonstrated that a safe link to the child's unique health service (Community Health Index) number could be obtained for a very high proportion of children in each group (94%, 95% and 95% of children classified as currently, previously, and non-looked after, respectively). In general, linkage rates were higher for older children and those living in more affluent areas. Within the looked after group, linkage rates were highest for children with the fewest placements and for those in permanent fostering. CONCLUSIONS: This novel data linkage demonstrates the feasibility of monitoring population-based health outcomes of school-aged looked after and non-looked after children using linked routine administrative data. Improved recording of the unique pupil identifier number on looked after data returns would be beneficial. Extending the range of personal identifiers on looked after children returns would enable linkage to health data for looked after children who are not in publicly funded schooling (i.e. those who are preschool or postschool, home schooled or in independent schooling).

The potential role of dentists in HIV screening.

Recent evidence suggests there is a role for the dental team, particularly dentists, in offering chairside HIV screening to patients during dental appointments. HIV is no longer a death sentence with early diagnosis and effective treatment contributing to a good prognosis. Despite the availability of both venipuncture diagnostic and rapid saliva/finger prick screening tests for HIV infection, 25% of people living with HIV in the United Kingdom are undiagnosed and remain at risk of transmitting their infection if having unprotected sex. This paper highlights the international evidence that supports dentists' willingness to conduct HIV screening and dental patient acceptance, and explores whether this is an opportunity or a step too far.

Salivary antimicrobial proteins associate with age-related changes in streptococcal composition in dental plaque.

Secretion of antimicrobial proteins (AMPs) and salivary antibodies can modify biofilm formation at host body surfaces. In adolescents, associations have been reported between dental caries and salivary AMPs. AMPs demonstrate direct antimicrobial effects at high concentrations, and at lower more physiological concentrations they mediate changes in host cell defenses, which may alter the local environment and indirectly shape local biofilm formation. The expression of salivary AMPs in preschool children, at an age when the oral bacteria are known to change, has not been investigated. We sought to investigate salivary AMP expression in the context of previously well-documented changes in the oral cavities of this age group including salivary immunoglobulin A (IgA), oral bacteria and dental caries. Dental plaque and saliva were collected from 57 children aged 12-24 months at baseline, of whom 23 children were followed-up at 3 years of age. At each time, saliva was assessed for LL37, human neutrophil peptides 1-3, calprotectin, lactoferrin, salivary IgA, total plaque bacteria and Streptococcus mutans. Over time, concentrations of AMPs, S. mutans and bacteria-specific salivary IgA increased. Caries experience was also recorded when children were 3 years old. Concentrations of AMPs were highest in the saliva of 3-year-old children with the greatest burden of S. mutans. These data suggest that salivary AMPs are variable over time and between individuals, and are linked with bacterial colonization. At follow up, the majority of children remained caries free. Larger longitudinal studies are required to confirm whether salivary AMP levels are predictive of caries and whether their modulation offers therapeutic benefit.

National supervised toothbrushing program and dental decay in Scotland.

We aimed to assess the association between the roll-out of the national nursery toothbrushing program and a reduction in dental decay in five-year-old children in a Scotland-wide population study. The intervention was supervised toothbrushing in nurseries and distribution of fluoride toothpaste and toothbrushes for home use, measured as the percentage of nurseries participating in each health service administrative board area. The endpoint was mean d(3)mft in 99,071 five-year-old children, covering 7% to 25% of the relevant population (in various years), who participated in multiple cross-sectional dental epidemiology surveys in 1987 to 2009. The slope of the uptake in toothbrushing was correlated with the slope in the reduction of d(3)mft. The mean d(3)mft in Years -2 to 0 (relative to that in start-up Year 0) was 3.06, reducing to 2.07 in Years 10 to 12 (difference = -0.99; 95% CI -1.08, -0.90; p < 0.001). The uptake of toothbrushing correlated with the decline in d(3)mft (correlation = -0.64; -0.86, -0.16; p = 0.011). The result improved when one outlying Health Board was excluded (correlation = -0.90; -0.97, -0.70; p < 0.0001). An improvement in the dental health of five-year-olds was detected and is associated with the uptake of nursery toothbrushing.

Socioeconomic deprivation and NHS orthodontic treatment delivery in Scotland.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this observational study was to investigate the relationship between deprivation and the delivery of primary care NHS orthodontic services across Scotland. METHOD: Deprivation was measured using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). The Information Services Division, NHS National Services Scotland, supplied data on all claims for orthodontic treatments in Scotland for the years 2008 and 2009. Each claim was assigned to a SIMD quintile (SIMD 1 being the most deprived, and SIMD 5 the least deprived), and odds ratios were calculated. RESULTS: Uptake of orthodontic services is highest in the least deprived areas. Patients from the least deprived areas are nearly twice as likely to receive orthodontic treatment as those from the most deprived areas (odds ratio of 1.90 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.86 to 1.94). CONCLUSION: Patients from more the most deprived backgrounds are less likely to receive orthodontic treatment than those from more affluent backgrounds, which does not necessarily reflect need.

Role of medical history and medication use in the aetiology of upper aerodigestive tract cancers in Europe: the ARCAGE study.

BACKGROUND: The study aimed to investigate the role of medical history (skin warts, Candida albicans, herpetic lesions, heartburn, regurgitation) and medication use (for heartburn; for regurgitation; aspirin) in the aetiology of upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancer. METHODS: A multicentre (10 European countries) case-control study [Alcohol-Related CAncers and GEnetic susceptibility (ARCAGE) project]. RESULTS: There were 1779 cases of UADT cancer and 1993 controls. History of warts or C. albicans infection was associated with a reduced risk [odds ratio (OR) 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-0.94 and OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.60-0.89, respectively] but there was no association with herpetic lesions, heartburn, regurgitation or medication for related symptoms. Regurgitation was associated with an increased risk for cancer of the oesophagus (OR 1.47, 95% CI 0.98-2.21). Regular aspirin use was not associated with risk of UADT cancer overall but was associated with a reduced risk for cancer of oesophagus (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.28-0.96), hypopharynx (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.28-1.02) and larynx (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.54-1.01). CONCLUSIONS: A history of some infections appears to be a marker for decreased risk of UADT cancer. The role of medical history and medication use varied by UADT subsites with aspirin use associated with a decreased risk of oesophageal cancer and suggestive of a decreased risk of hypopharyngeal and laryngeal cancers.

Childsmile: the national child oral health improvement programme in Scotland. Part 1: Establishment and development.

This paper is the first of two reviewing the Childsmile programme. It sets out to describe the development and implementation of this national oral health improvement programme for children in Scotland over its initial three-year period (January 2006 to December 2008) and into its second phase of development. It outlines the context in which the initiative was conceived, the initial development of its various components, and how monitoring and evaluation are shaping the delivery and direction of the programme.

Childsmile: the national child oral health improvement programme in Scotland. Part 2: Monitoring and delivery.

This paper, the second of two reviewing the Childsmile programme, describes monitoring arrangements and summarises monitoring data covering the period 2006-2009. By mid-2009, around 28,000 infants in deprived areas of the West of Scotland had been given caries risk assessments by Health Visitors; 14,000 were enrolled with 142 Childsmile practices or clinics; and over 10,000 had begun making practice visits. The Childsmile Nursery and School programmes had provided 28,000 fluoride varnish treatments to nursery and primary school children. Daily supervised toothbrushing and distribution of oral health packs covered almost 100% of nursery schools and P1 and P2 classes in primary schools in the most deprived areas of Scotland. Feedback of monitoring information to programme managers is used to identify any variation or shortfall in programme coverage and delivery.

Life course social mobility and risk of upper aerodigestive tract cancer in men.

The aim of this study was to explore associations between social mobility and tumours of the upper aero-digestive tract (UADT), focussing on life-course transitions in social prestige (SP) based on occupational history. 1,796 cases diagnosed between 1993 and 2005 in ten European countries were compared with 1585 controls. SP was classified by the Standard International Occupational Prestige Scale (SIOPS) based on job histories. SIOPS was categorised in high (H), medium (M) and low (L). Time weighted average achieved and transitions between SP with nine trajectories: H --> H, H --> M, H --> L, M --> H, M --> M, M --> L, L --> H, L --> M and L --> L were analysed. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95%-confidence intervals [95%-CIs] were estimated with logistic regression models including age, consumption of fruits/vegetables, study centre, smoking and alcohol consumption. The adjusted OR for the lowest versus the highest of three categories (time weighted average of SP) was 1.28 [1.04-1.56]. The distance of SP widened between cases and controls during working life. The downward trajectory H --> L gave an OR of 1.71 [0.75-3.87] as compared to H --> H. Subjects with M --> M and L --> L trajectories ORs were also elevated relative to subjects with H --> H trajectories. The association between SP and UADT is not fully explained by confounding factors. Downward social trajectory during the life course may be an independent risk factor for UADT cancers.

Socioeconomic factors associated with risk of upper aerodigestive tract cancer in Europe.

INTRODUCTION: In the European Union, there are 180,000 new cases of upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancer cases per year--more than half of whom will die of the disease. Socioeconomic inequalities in UADT cancer incidence are recognised across Europe. We aimed to assess the components of socioeconomic risk both independently and through their influence on the known behavioural risk factors of smoking, alcohol consumption and diet. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A multicentre case-control study with 2198 cases of UADT cancer and 2141 controls from hospital and population sources was undertaken involving 14 centres from 10 countries. Personal interviews collected information on demographics, lifetime occupation history, smoking, alcohol consumption and diet. Socioeconomic status was measured by education, occupational social class and unemployment. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS: When controlling for age, sex and centre significantly increased risks for UADT cancer were observed for those with low versus high educational attainment OR=1.98 (95% CI 1.67, 2.36). Similarly, for occupational socioeconomic indicators--comparing the lowest versus highest International Socio-Economic Index (ISEI) quartile for the longest occupation gave OR=1.60 (1.28, 2.00); and for unemployment OR=1.64 (1.24, 2.17). Statistical significance remained for low education when adjusting for smoking, alcohol and diet behaviours OR=1.29 (1.06, 1.57) in the multivariate analysis. Inequalities were observed only among men but not among women and were greater among those in the British Isles and Eastern European countries than in Southern and Central/Northern European countries. Associations were broadly consistent for subsite and source of controls (hospital and community). CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic inequalities for UADT cancers are only observed among men and are not totally explained by smoking, alcohol drinking and diet.

Pascal's Wager, infective endocarditis and the "no-lose" philosophy in medicine.

Doctors and dentists have traditionally used antibiotic prophylaxis in certain patient groups in order to prevent infective endocarditis (IE). New guidelines, however, suggest that the risk to patients from using antibiotics is higher than the risk from IE. This paper analyses the relative risks of prescribing and not prescribing antibiotic prophylaxis against the background of Pascal's Wager, the infamous assertion that it is better to believe in God regardless of evidence, because of the prospective benefits should He exist. Many doctors seem to believe the parallel proposition that it is better to prescribe antibiotics, regardless of evidence, because of the prospective benefit conferred upon the patient. This has been called the "no lose philosophy" in medicine: better safe than sorry, even if the evidence inconveniently suggests that following this mantra is potentially more likely to result in sorry than safe. It transpires that, just as Pascal's Wager fails to convince because of a lack of evidence to support it and the costs incurred by trying to believe, so the "belts and braces" approach of prescribing antibiotic prophylaxis is unjustifiable given the actual evidence of potential risk and benefit to the patient. Ultimately, there is no no-lose if your clinical decisions, like Pascal's Wager, are based on faith rather than evidence.