Insurance payor status and risk of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events after metabolic and bariatric surgery.

BACKGROUND: Patients with Medicare/Medicaid insurance receive metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) at lower rates than privately insured (PI) patients. Although studies on some surgical procedures report that Medicare/Medicaid insurance confers increased postoperative complication rates and a longer length of stay, less is known about these outcomes after MBS. Among often-feared postoperative complications are major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACEs). Although these events are rare after MBS, they have a significant impact on morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the effect of insurance payor status on MACEs after MBS. SETTING: The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS). METHODS: HCUP-NIS was queried for cases including sleeve gastrectomy or Roux-en-Y gastric bypass between 2012 and 2019. Bivariate associations between patient-level factors and MACEs were assessed via Rao-Scott χ2 tests. Adjusted and unadjusted risks of insurance payor status for MACEs were evaluated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Incidence of MACEs was higher in both Medicare (.75% versus .11%; P < .001) and Medicaid (.15% versus .11%; P < .001) groups than in the PI group. After adjustment for high-risk demographics, high-risk co-morbidities, socioeconomic variables, and hospital factors, insurance status of Medicare (odds ratio [OR]: 1.60, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23, 2.07; P = .0026) or Medicaid (OR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.16; P = .0026) remained an independent risk factor for MACEs. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the significance of Medicaid/Medicare payor status as an independent predictor of postoperative MACEs in MBS. The results of this study can have a significant impact on deepening our understanding of socioeconomic and health system-related issues that can be targeted to improve outcomes in both MBS and other surgical specialties.

Limitations of the 2015-2021 Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program database for emergency bariatric operations.

BACKGROUND: The Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Quality Improvement Project (MBSAQIP) is the largest bariatric surgery-specific clinical data set. OBJECTIVES: In 2020, the definition of emergency cases was altered to include only revisional or conversion cases and not primary cases. The aim of this study was to examine how this change affects the utility of the data set for emergency case tracking. SETTING: MBSAQIP database. METHODS: Emergency cases were extracted from available MBSAQIP data (2015-2021). A comparison of co-morbidity profiles was done, specifically before and after the recent change to how "emergency" is defined in the data set. RESULTS: Eleven thousand and twenty-nine of the 1,048,575 total cases were coded as "emergency cases." From 2015 to 2019, 10,574 emergency cases were performed (∼2115 cases/yr), markedly decreasing in 2020 and 2021 to 455 cases (∼228 cases/yr). Before 2020, the most common procedures were the unlisted procedure of the stomach (45.14%, n = 3101), gastric band removal (25.3%, n = 2676), and reduction of internal hernia (11.8%, n = 1244). Between 2020 and 2021, this distribution changed with Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), the most common emergency procedure (29.23%, n = 133). As expected from the change that captured only revisional cases, the average operative length was greater between 2020 and 2021 (127.6 versus 86.5 min). CONCLUSIONS: Capturable emergency cases declined in 2020, a trend related to changing the definition of emergency as part of MBSAQIP standards. This change excludes data on internal hernia reduction and does not likely reflect a real change in the prevalence of emergency bariatric cases. Because capture for emergency cases has diminished, so has any prior utility of using MBSAQIP data for studying emergency cases.

Late-stage borreliosis and substance abuse.

Background: Infectious diseases can contribute to substance abuse. Here, a fatal case of borreliosis and substance abuse is reported. This patient had a history of multiple tick bites and increasing multisystem symptoms, yet diagnosis and treatment were delayed. He experimented with multiple substances including phencyclidine (PCP), an N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonist that opposes NMDA agonism caused by Borrelia infection. During PCP withdrawal, he committed one homicide, two assaults, and suicide. Methods: Brain tissue was obtained from autopsy and stained for microglial activation and quinolinic acid (QA). Immunoflouresence (IFA) and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) were used to identify the presence of pathogens in autopsy tissue. Results: Autopsy tissue evaluation demonstrated Borrelia in the pancreas by IFA and heart by IFA and FISH. Activated microglia and QA were found in the brain, indicating neuroinflammation. It is postulated that PCP withdrawal may exacerbate symptoms produced by Borrelia-induced biochemical imbalances in the brain. This combination may have greatly increased his acute homicidal and suicidal risk. Patient databases also demonstrated the risk of homicide or suicide in patients diagnosed with borreliosis and confirmed multiple symptoms in these patients, including chronic pain, anxiety, and anhedonia. Conclusions: Late-stage borreliosis is associated with multiple symptoms that may contribute to an increased risk of substance abuse and addictive disorders. More effective diagnosis and treatment of borreliosis, and attention to substance abuse potential may help reduce associated morbidity and mortality in patients with borreliosis, particularly in endemic areas.

Dietary Fiber Intake and Risk of Advanced and Aggressive Forms of Prostate Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of 15 Prospective Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of an association between dietary fiber intake and risk of advanced and aggressive forms of prostate cancer (PC) and PC mortality is limited. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine associations between intakes of dietary fiber overall and by food source and risk of advanced and aggressive forms of PC. DESIGN: The study design was a pooled analysis of the primary data from 15 cohorts in 3 continents. Baseline dietary fiber intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire or diet history in each study. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: There were 842 149 men followed for up to 9 to 22 years between 1985 and 2009 across studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measures were advanced (stage T4, N1, or M1 or PC mortality), advanced restricted (excluded men with missing stage and those with localized PC who died of PC), and high-grade PC (Gleason score ≥8 or poorly differentiated/undifferentiated) and PC mortality. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PERFORMED: Study-specific multivariable hazard ratios (MVHR) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression and pooled using random effects models. RESULTS: Intake of dietary fiber overall, from fruits, and from vegetables was not associated with risk of advanced (n = 4863), advanced restricted (n = 2978), or high-grade PC (n = 9673) or PC mortality (n = 3097). Dietary fiber intake from grains was inversely associated with advanced PC (comparing the highest vs lowest quintile, MVHR 0.84; 95% CI 0.76-0.93), advanced restricted PC (MVHR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74-0.97), and PC mortality (MVHR 0.78; 95% CI 0.68-0.89); statistically significant trends were noted for each of these associations (P ≤ .03), and a null association was observed for high-grade PC for the same comparison (MVHR 1.00; 95% CI 0.93-1.07). The comparable results were 1.06 (95% CI 1.01-1.10; P value, test for trend = .002) for localized PC (n = 35,199) and 1.05 (95% CI 0.99-1.11; P value, test for trend = .04) for low/intermediate grade PC (n = 34 366). CONCLUSIONS: Weak nonsignificant associations were observed between total dietary fiber intake and risk of advanced forms of PC, high-grade PC, and PC mortality. High dietary fiber intake from grains was associated with a modestly lower risk of advanced forms of PC and PC mortality.

Connectome-driven neural inventory of a complete visual system.

Vision provides animals with detailed information about their surroundings, conveying diverse features such as color, form, and movement across the visual scene. Computing these parallel spatial features requires a large and diverse network of neurons, such that in animals as distant as flies and humans, visual regions comprise half the brain's volume. These visual brain regions often reveal remarkable structure-function relationships, with neurons organized along spatial maps with shapes that directly relate to their roles in visual processing. To unravel the stunning diversity of a complex visual system, a careful mapping of the neural architecture matched to tools for targeted exploration of that circuitry is essential. Here, we report a new connectome of the right optic lobe from a male Drosophila central nervous system FIB-SEM volume and a comprehensive inventory of the fly's visual neurons. We developed a computational framework to quantify the anatomy of visual neurons, establishing a basis for interpreting how their shapes relate to spatial vision. By integrating this analysis with connectivity information, neurotransmitter identity, and expert curation, we classified the ~53,000 neurons into 727 types, about half of which are systematically described and named for the first time. Finally, we share an extensive collection of split-GAL4 lines matched to our neuron type catalog. Together, this comprehensive set of tools and data unlock new possibilities for systematic investigations of vision in Drosophila, a foundation for a deeper understanding of sensory processing.

Similar Risk of Kidney Failure among Patients with Blinding Diseases Who Receive Ranibizumab, Aflibercept, and Bevacizumab: An Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics Network Study.

PURPOSE: To characterize the incidence of kidney failure associated with intravitreal anti-VEGF exposure; and compare the risk of kidney failure in patients treated with ranibizumab, aflibercept, or bevacizumab. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study across 12 databases in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) network. SUBJECTS: Subjects aged ≥ 18 years with ≥ 3 monthly intravitreal anti-VEGF medications for a blinding disease (diabetic retinopathy, diabetic macular edema, exudative age-related macular degeneration, or retinal vein occlusion). METHODS: The standardized incidence proportions and rates of kidney failure while on treatment with anti-VEGF were calculated. For each comparison (e.g., aflibercept versus ranibizumab), patients from each group were matched 1:1 using propensity scores. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of kidney failure while on treatment. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to combine each database's hazard ratio (HR) estimate into a single network-wide estimate. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of kidney failure while on anti-VEGF treatment, and time from cohort entry to kidney failure. RESULTS: Of the 6.1 million patients with blinding diseases, 37 189 who received ranibizumab, 39 447 aflibercept, and 163 611 bevacizumab were included; the total treatment exposure time was 161 724 person-years. The average standardized incidence proportion of kidney failure was 678 per 100 000 persons (range, 0-2389), and incidence rate 742 per 100 000 person-years (range, 0-2661). The meta-analysis HR of kidney failure comparing aflibercept with ranibizumab was 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.47; P = 0.45), ranibizumab with bevacizumab 0.95 (95% CI, 0.68-1.32; P = 0.62), and aflibercept with bevacizumab 0.95 (95% CI, 0.65-1.39; P = 0.60). CONCLUSIONS: There was no substantially different relative risk of kidney failure between those who received ranibizumab, bevacizumab, or aflibercept. Practicing ophthalmologists and nephrologists should be aware of the risk of kidney failure among patients receiving intravitreal anti-VEGF medications and that there is little empirical evidence to preferentially choose among the specific intravitreal anti-VEGF agents. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES: Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Comparative Effectiveness of Second-line Antihyperglycemic Agents for Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Large-scale, Multinational, Federated Analysis of the LEGEND-T2DM Study.

Background: SGLT2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) reduce major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, their effectiveness relative to each other and other second-line antihyperglycemic agents is unknown, without any major ongoing head-to-head trials. Methods: Across the LEGEND-T2DM network, we included ten federated international data sources, spanning 1992-2021. We identified 1,492,855 patients with T2DM and established cardiovascular disease (CVD) on metformin monotherapy who initiated one of four second-line agents (SGLT2is, GLP1-RAs, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor [DPP4is], sulfonylureas [SUs]). We used large-scale propensity score models to conduct an active comparator, target trial emulation for pairwise comparisons. After evaluating empirical equipoise and population generalizability, we fit on-treatment Cox proportional hazard models for 3-point MACE (myocardial infarction, stroke, death) and 4-point MACE (3-point MACE + heart failure hospitalization) risk, and combined hazard ratio (HR) estimates in a random-effects meta-analysis. Findings: Across cohorts, 16·4%, 8·3%, 27·7%, and 47·6% of individuals with T2DM initiated SGLT2is, GLP1-RAs, DPP4is, and SUs, respectively. Over 5·2 million patient-years of follow-up and 489 million patient-days of time at-risk, there were 25,982 3-point MACE and 41,447 4-point MACE events. SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs were associated with a lower risk for 3-point MACE compared with DPP4is (HR 0·89 [95% CI, 0·79-1·00] and 0·83 [0·70-0·98]), and SUs (HR 0·76 [0·65-0·89] and 0·71 [0·59-0·86]). DPP4is were associated with a lower 3-point MACE risk versus SUs (HR 0·87 [0·79-0·95]). The pattern was consistent for 4-point MACE for the comparisons above. There were no significant differences between SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs for 3-point or 4-point MACE (HR 1·06 [0·96-1·17] and 1·05 [0·97-1·13]). Interpretation: In patients with T2DM and established CVD, we found comparable cardiovascular risk reduction with SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs, with both agents more effective than DPP4is, which in turn were more effective than SUs. These findings suggest that the use of GLP1-RAs and SGLT2is should be prioritized as second-line agents in those with established CVD. Funding: National Institutes of Health, United States Department of Veterans Affairs.

Stimuli-Responsive Polymers for Engineered Emulsions.

Emulsions are complex. Dispersing two immiscible phases, thus expanding an interface, requires effort to achieve and the resultant dispersion is thermodynamically unstable, driving the system toward coalescence. Furthermore, physical instabilities, including creaming, arise due to presence of dispersed droplets of different densities to a continuous phase. Emulsions allow the formulation of oils, can act as vehicles to solubilize both hydrophilic and lipophilic molecules, and can be tailored to desirable rheological profiles, including "gel-like" behavior and shear thinning. The usefulness of emulsions can be further expanded by imparting stimuli-responsive or "smart" behaviors by inclusion of a stimuli-responsive emulsifier, polymer or surfactant. This enables manipulation like gelation, breaking, or aggregation, by external triggers such as pH, temperature, or salt concentration changes. This platform generates functional materials for pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, oil recovery, and colloid engineering, combining both smart behaviors and intrinsic benefit of emulsions. However, with increased functionality comes greater complexity. This review focuses on the use of stimuli-responsive polymers for the generation of smart emulsions, motivated by the great adaptability of polymers for this application and their efficacy as steric stabilizers. Stimuli-responsive emulsions are described according to the trigger used to provide the reader with an overview of progress in this field.

Early Experience with the Senhance Surgical System in Bariatric Surgery.

Background and Objectives: Robotic-assisted surgery advancements have paralleled growing bariatric surgery demands. The Senhance robotic platform offers an alternative to the da Vinci surgical system but there are limited studies evaluating the Senhance system in bariatric surgery. This study aims to review a single surgeon's experience comparing outcomes between traditional laparoscopic and Senhance-assisted sleeve gastrectomy. Materials and Methods: All sleeve gastrectomies performed laparoscopically, Senhance-assisted, or da Vinci-assisted by a single surgeon at an academic center from January 2019 to July 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. Primary outcomes and quality measures were 30-day complications, operative times and length of stay. Results: A total of 268 patients, including 162 laparoscopic, 92 Senhance, and 14 da Vinci cases, were included. Operative times were significantly longer with Senhance (115.7 min) and da Vinci (122.7 min), compared to laparoscopic (94.8 min, P < .0001). Length of stay (measured in days) was significantly longer in the Senhance (1.8) and da Vinci (2.2) groups compared to laparoscopic cases (1.5, P < .0001). These differences remained significant after controlling for age, sex and body mass index. 30-day complication rates were 8.7% (n = 8) in the Senhance group, 7.1% (n = 1) in the da Vinci group and 2.5% (n = 4) in the laparoscopic group (P = .0567). Conclusion: Senhance-assisted sleeve gastrectomy is safe in bariatric surgery and comparable to laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy with respect to 30-day complications.

Improved survival for dose-intensive chemotherapy in primary mediastinal B-cell lymphoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 4,068 patients.

Primary mediastinal B-cell lymphoma (PMBCL) is a distinct clinicopathologic entity. Currently, there is a paucity of randomized prospective data to inform on optimal front-line chemoimmunotherapy (CIT) and use of consolidative mediastinal radiation (RT). To assess if distinct CIT approaches are associated with disparate survival outcomes, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing dose-intensive (DI-CIT) versus standard CIT for the front-line treatment of PMBCL. Standard approach (S-CIT) was defined as R-CHOP-21/CHOP-21, with or without RT. DI-CIT were defined as regimens with increased frequency, dose, and/or number of systemic agents. We reviewed data on 4,068 patients (2,517 DI-CIT; 1,551 S-CIT) with a new diagnosis of PMBCL. Overall survival for DI-CIT patients was 88% (95% CI: 85-90) compared to 80% for the S-CIT cohort (95% CI: 74-85). Meta-regression revealed an 8% overall survival (OS) benefit for the DI-CIT group (P<0.01). Survival benefit was maintained when analyzing rituximab only regimens; OS was 91% (95% CI: 89-93) for the rituximab-DI-CIT arm compared to 86% (95% CI: 82-89) for the R-CHOP-21 arm (P=0.03). Importantly, 55% (95% CI: 43-65) of the S-CIT group received RT compared to 22% (95% CI: 15-31) of DI-CIT patients (meta-regression P<0.01). To our knowledge, this is the largest meta-analysis reporting efficacy outcomes for the front-line treatment of PMBCL. DI-CIT demonstrates a survival benefit, with significantly less radiation exposure, curtailing long-term toxicities associated with radiotherapy. As we await results of randomized prospective trials, our study supports the use of dose-intensive chemoimmunotherapy for the treatment of PMBCL.

Branched copolymer surfactants impart thermoreversible gelation to LAPONITE® gels.

This investigation seeks to integrate LAPONITE® clay gels with thermoresponsive branched copolymer surfactants (BCSs) to develop advanced functional materials with temperature-induced sol-gel behaviour. It is known that a diverse range of molecules adsorb strongly to clays which may be used to control liberation of the species in healthcare applications, and as such the development of polymer/clay hybrid materials which can add function to the native clay behaviour are of great interest. BCS were synthesised with a structure that encompasses poly(ethylene glycol)methacrylate (PEGMA), ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EGDMA), and dodecanethiol (DDT), conferring versatile and tuneable thermoresponsive attributes. Systematic modulation of the monomer : DDT/initiator ratio was used to facilitate the synthesis of BCS architectures spanning a range of molecular weights. Through application of small-amplitude oscillatory shear (SAOS) rheology and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) in conjunction with controlled temperature variations, the sol-gel transition dynamics of these nanocomposite materials were elucidated. Complementary insights into the mechanisms underpinning this transition and temperature-induced alterations in the constituents are gleaned through the utilization of SANS techniques employing contrast-matching methodologies to mitigate clay and polymer scattering interference. It is found that heating systems from room- to body- temperature induces self-assembly of BCS in the bulk aqueous phase with concurrent structuration of clay in gel-forming samples with lower number average molecular weight (Mn). SANS study unpicks this phenomenon to find that gelation occurs with concurrent aggregation of BCS in the bulk, inducing clay-clay interactions only in lower Mn BCS systems with large nanoaggregates.

Lessons from assembling a microbial natural product and pre-fractionated extract library in an academic laboratory.

Microbial natural products are specialized metabolites that are sources of many bioactive compounds including antibiotics, antifungals, antiparasitics, anticancer agents, and probes of biology. The assembly of libraries of producers of natural products has traditionally been the province of the pharmaceutical industry. This sector has gathered significant historical collections of bacteria and fungi to identify new drug leads with outstanding outcomes-upwards of 60% of drug scaffolds originate from such libraries. Despite this success, the repeated rediscovery of known compounds and the resultant diminishing chemical novelty contributed to a pivot from this source of bioactive compounds toward more tractable synthetic compounds in the drug industry. The advent of advanced mass spectrometry tools, along with rapid whole genome sequencing and in silico identification of biosynthetic gene clusters that encode the machinery necessary for the synthesis of specialized metabolites, offers the opportunity to revisit microbial natural product libraries with renewed vigor. Assembling a suitable library of microbes and extracts for screening requires the investment of resources and the development of methods that have customarily been the proprietary purview of large pharmaceutical companies. Here, we report a perspective on our efforts to assemble a library of natural product-producing microbes and the establishment of methods to extract and fractionate bioactive compounds using resources available to most academic labs. We validate the library and approach through a series of screens for antimicrobial and cytotoxic agents. This work serves as a blueprint for establishing libraries of microbial natural product producers and bioactive extract fractions suitable for screens of bioactive compounds. ONE-SENTENCE SUMMARY: Natural products are key to discovery of novel antimicrobial agents: Here, we describe our experience and lessons learned in constructing a microbial natural product and pre-fractionated extract library.

Does testosterone influence the association between sleep and frailty in men: results from the European Male Aging Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested an association between sleep disturbance and frailty. The mechanism is unknown, although it has been suggested that hormonal factors may play a role. METHODS: The aim was to determine the association between sleep duration, sleep quality and frailty, and to determine whether testosterone influenced this association. Males aged 40-79 years were recruited from eight European centres to the European Male Aging Study (EMAS). Subjects completed an interviewer-assisted questionnaire including questions regarding sleep quality and duration. Sleep quality was scored 0-20 and categorised as 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-20, with higher scores indicating poorer quality. A 39-component frailty index (FI) was constructed. Total testosterone levels were measured. The association between sleep duration, sleep quality and the FI was assessed using negative binomial regression, with adjustment for putative confounders including testosterone level. RESULTS: Two thousand three hundred ninety-three participants contributed data to the analysis. The mean age was 63.3 years and mean sleep duration was 7.01 h. The mean frailty index was 0.15. Mean testosterone levels declined with decreasing sleep quality. After adjustment, compared to those with a sleep score of 0-4, the FI was 57% (95% CI 38%, 78%) higher among those with a sleep score of 15-20. After adjustment compared to those with normal sleep duration (6-9 h), those with a short (< 6 h) and long (≥ 9 h) sleep duration had a 16% (95% CI 6%, 28%) and 11% (95% CI 0%, 23%) higher FI, respectively. Adjustment for testosterone did not influence the strength of either association. CONCLUSION: Frailty is associated with impaired sleep quality and sleep duration. The association cannot, however, be explained by variation in testosterone levels.

Hepatic Vagotomy in Patients With Obesity Leads to Improvement of the Cholesterol to High-Density Lipoprotein Ratio.

INTRODUCTION/PURPOSE: The obesity epidemic is rapidly growing, and visceral adiposity is associated with metabolic consequences secondary to peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-induced inter-organ signaling pathways. PPARs are ligand-activated transcription factors that modulate vagal pathways which can improve blood pressure, arterial remodeling, cholesterol levels, and insulin sensitivity. However, an obesity-induced inflammatory milieu can interfere with the beneficial effects of PPAR activity, suggesting that a dysregulated PPAR-vagus pathway may play a role in the pathogenesis of obesity-related hypertension. Therefore, we hypothesized that hepatic vagotomy (HV) in patients with obesity would result in a significant reduction in blood pressure and/or the number of hypertension medications compared to control. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective chart review of 160 patients undergoing laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. Patients were divided into HV and control groups, and information was collected at each clinic visit. RESULTS: At six-months post-operation, the HV group was found to have significantly lower total cholesterol (TC)/high-density lipoprotein (HDL) ratios than the control group. The HV group also had a numerically better blood profile for TC, HDL, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), triglycerides, C-reactive protein, and LDL/HDL ratio. Hypertensive patients in the HV group showed numerically lower hypertension medication counts after six weeks when compared to control. CONCLUSION: We present the first study to report clinically significant changes related to HV in human subjects. Our results did not support our initial hypothesis but did demonstrate an improvement of the TC/HDL ratio with HV in patients with obesity. Future studies should confirm these findings in a randomized control trial.

A Novel and Accurate Method for Estimating Deaths and Cases During Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases Including COVID-19.

Introduction: Epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases plays an important role in driving public health policy. Commonly used models are described, including those based on exponential growth (Laplace and related distributions); susceptible-infected-removed; the Gompertz distribution; and the skew-reflected-Gompertz distribution. These are all sensitive to the timing of peak infection. The development of a novel method for forecasting the number of deaths occurring during epidemics of infectious diseases is described. Methods: The mathematical development of the authors' novel asymmetric difference model is detailed in this paper. Its predictions for mortality rates associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for 14 countries were compared with the corresponding published mortality data. Results: Forecasts by the asymmetric difference model of deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in different countries, actual recorded deaths to 30th June 2020, and corresponding errors included UK (42,700; 55,904; -24%); Poland (1490; 1444; +3%); Denmark (580; 605; -4%); Netherlands (6510; 6189; +5%); France (34,280; 29,836; +15%); Canada (1500; 8591; -78%); USA (44,540; 124,734; -64%); and Italy (22,020; 34,980; -37%). The model output was dependent upon forecast date accuracy for the peak of the disease outbreak. For Spain, the forecast date was one day early and for 10 (71%) countries the forecast peak occurred within seven days (inclusive) of the actual date. Discussion: Mortality prediction by the asymmetric difference model is relatively accurate. Furthermore, this new model does not appear to be as unduly sensitive to the timing of peak infection as other models. Indeed, its prediction of peak infection also appears to be relatively accurate.

Multinational patterns of second line antihyperglycaemic drug initiation across cardiovascular risk groups: federated pharmacoepidemiological evaluation in LEGEND-T2DM.

Objective: To assess the uptake of second line antihyperglycaemic drugs among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who are receiving metformin. Design: Federated pharmacoepidemiological evaluation in LEGEND-T2DM. Setting: 10 US and seven non-US electronic health record and administrative claims databases in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics network in eight countries from 2011 to the end of 2021. Participants: 4.8 million patients (≥18 years) across US and non-US based databases with type 2 diabetes mellitus who had received metformin monotherapy and had initiated second line treatments. Exposure: The exposure used to evaluate each database was calendar year trends, with the years in the study that were specific to each cohort. Main outcomes measures: The outcome was the incidence of second line antihyperglycaemic drug use (ie, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, and sulfonylureas) among individuals who were already receiving treatment with metformin. The relative drug class level uptake across cardiovascular risk groups was also evaluated. Results: 4.6 million patients were identified in US databases, 61 382 from Spain, 32 442 from Germany, 25 173 from the UK, 13 270 from France, 5580 from Scotland, 4614 from Hong Kong, and 2322 from Australia. During 2011-21, the combined proportional initiation of the cardioprotective antihyperglycaemic drugs (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors) increased across all data sources, with the combined initiation of these drugs as second line drugs in 2021 ranging from 35.2% to 68.2% in the US databases, 15.4% in France, 34.7% in Spain, 50.1% in Germany, and 54.8% in Scotland. From 2016 to 2021, in some US and non-US databases, uptake of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors increased more significantly among populations with no cardiovascular disease compared with patients with established cardiovascular disease. No data source provided evidence of a greater increase in the uptake of these two drug classes in populations with cardiovascular disease compared with no cardiovascular disease. Conclusions: Despite the increase in overall uptake of cardioprotective antihyperglycaemic drugs as second line treatments for type 2 diabetes mellitus, their uptake was lower in patients with cardiovascular disease than in people with no cardiovascular disease over the past decade. A strategy is needed to ensure that medication use is concordant with guideline recommendations to improve outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Heterogeneous genetic architectures and evolutionary genomics of prostate cancer in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Men of African descent have the highest prostate cancer (CaP) incidence and mortality rates, yet the genetic basis of CaP in African men has been understudied. We used genomic data from 3,963 CaP cases and 3,509 controls recruited in Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Uganda, to infer ancestry-specific genetic architectures and fine-mapped disease associations. Fifteen independent associations at 8q24.21, 6q22.1, and 11q13.3 reached genome-wide significance, including four novel associations. Intriguingly, multiple lead SNPs are private alleles, a pattern arising from recent mutations and the out-of-Africa bottleneck. These African-specific alleles contribute to haplotypes with odds ratios above 2.4. We found that the genetic architecture of CaP differs across Africa, with effect size differences contributing more to this heterogeneity than allele frequency differences. Population genetic analyses reveal that African CaP associations are largely governed by neutral evolution. Collectively, our findings emphasize the utility of conducting genetic studies that use diverse populations.

Number of CAG repeats and mortality in middle aged and older men.

DESIGN: The androgen receptor (AR) mediates peripheral effects of testosterone. Previous data suggests an association between the number of CAG repeats in exon-1 of the AR gene and AR transcriptional activity. The aim of this analysis was to determine the association between the number of AR CAG repeats and all-cause mortality in men and the influence of testosterone level on the association. PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Follow-up data to 27 January 2018 were available for men aged 40-79 years recruited across six countries of the European Male Aging Study between 2003 and 2005. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine the association between CAG repeat number/mortality. Results were expressed as hazard ratios (HR)/95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: One thousand nine hundred and seventy-seven men were followed up. Mean baseline age was 60 ± 11.1 years. Mean duration of follow-up was 12.2 years. At follow up 25.1% of men had died. CAG repeat length ranged from 6 to 39, with the highest proportion of CAG repeat number at 21 repeats (16.4%). In a multivariable model, compared to men with 22-23 AR CAG repeats: for men with <22 and >23 AR CAG HR, 95% CI for mortality were, <22 CAG repeats 1.17 (0.93-1.49) and >23 CAG repeats 1.14 (0.88-1.47). In a post-hoc analysis, the association was significant for men in the lowest tertile of baseline testosterone (<14.2 nmol/L) with >23 CAG repeats: in the adjusted model for <22 and >23 CAG repeats, respectively, 1.49 (0.97-2.27) and 1.68 (1.06-2.67) versus 22-23 repeats. CONCLUSIONS: Our European-wide cohort data overall found no association of androgen receptor CAG repeat number and mortality in men. However, post hoc analysis suggested that an association might be present in men with lower baseline testosterone concentrations, which merits further investigation.

Supramolecular chemistry enables vat photopolymerization 3D printing of novel water-soluble tablets.

Vat photopolymerization has garnered interest from pharmaceutical researchers for the fabrication of personalised medicines, especially for drugs that require high precision dosing or are heat labile. However, the 3D printed structures created thus far have been insoluble, limiting printable dosage forms to sustained-release systems or drug-eluting medical devices which do not require dissolution of the printed matrix. Resins that produce water-soluble structures will enable more versatile drug release profiles and expand potential applications. To achieve this, instead of employing cross-linking chemistry to fabricate matrices, supramolecular chemistry may be used to impart dynamic interaction between polymer chains. In this study, water-soluble drug-loaded printlets (3D printed tablets) are fabricated via digital light processing (DLP) 3DP for the first time. Six formulations with varying ratios of an electrolyte acrylate monomer, [2-(acryloyloxy)ethyl]trimethylammonium chloride (TMAEA), and a co-monomer, 1-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone (NVP), were prepared to produce paracetamol-loaded printlets. 1H NMR spectroscopy analysis confirmed the integration of TMAEA and NVP in the polymer, and residual TMAEA monomers were found to be present only in trace amounts (0.71 - 1.37 %w/w). The apparent molecular mass of the photopolymerised polymer was found to exceed 300,000 Da with hydrodynamic radii of 15 - 20 nm, estimated based on 1H DOSY NMR measurements The loaded paracetamol was completely released from the printlets between 45 minutes to 5 hours. In vivo single-dose acute toxicity studies in rats suggest that the printlets did not cause any tissue damage. The findings reported in this study represent a significant step towards the adoption of vat photopolymerization-based 3DP to produce personalised medicines.