Sparse spatially clustered coefficient model via adaptive regularization.

Large spatial datasets with many spatial covariates have become ubiquitous in many fields in recent years. A question of interest is to identify which covariates are likely to influence a spatial response, and whether and how the effects of these covariates vary across space, including potential abrupt changes from region to region. To solve this question, a new efficient regularized spatially clustered coefficient (RSCC) regression approach is proposed, which could achieve variable selection and identify latent spatially heterogeneous covariate effects with clustered patterns simultaneously. By carefully designing the regularization term of RSCC as a chain graph guided fusion penalty plus a group lasso penalty, the RSCC model is computationally efficient for large spatial datasets while still achieving the theoretical guarantees for estimation. RSCC also adopts the idea of adaptive learning to allow for adaptive weights and adaptive graphs in its regularization terms and further improves the estimation performance. RSCC is applied to study the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines using county-level data in the United States and discover the determinants of vaccination acceptance with varying effects across counties, revealing important within-state and across-state spatially clustered patterns of covariates effects.

Two Wrongs Make a Right: Addressing Underreporting in Binary Data from Multiple Sources.

Media-based event data-i.e., data comprised from reporting by media outlets-are widely used in political science research. However, events of interest (e.g., strikes, protests, conflict) are often underreported by these primary and secondary sources, producing incomplete data that risks inconsistency and bias in subsequent analysis. While general strategies exist to help ameliorate this bias, these methods do not make full use of the information often available to researchers. Specifically, much of the event data used in the social sciences is drawn from multiple, overlapping news sources (e.g., Agence France-Presse, Reuters). Therefore, we propose a novel maximum likelihood estimator that corrects for misclassification in data arising from multiple sources. In the most general formulation of our estimator, researchers can specify separate sets of predictors for the true-event model and each of the misclassification models characterizing whether a source fails to report on an event. As such, researchers are able to accurately test theories on both the causes of and reporting on an event of interest. Simulations evidence that our technique regularly out performs current strategies that either neglect misclassification, the unique features of the data-generating process, or both. We also illustrate the utility of this method with a model of repression using the Social Conflict in Africa Database.