Accurate, Traceable, and Verifiable Time Synchronization for World Financial Markets.

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), through a collaboration with Perseus, a global provider of telecommunication services, is providing accurate, traceable, and verifiable time synchronization to stock exchanges in the United States, Europe, and Asia. The paper describes why accurate time is necessary for fair and equitable financial markets and summarizes current and proposed future synchronization requirements in the financial sector. We discuss reference time sources and provide a technical overview of how NIST transfers time to data center hosted stock exchange. We also discuss how Perseus distributes NIST time to financial market customers and describes how the time is verified. Measurement data are presented, along with a discussion of measurement uncertainty.

Preserving the Boltzmann ensemble in replica-exchange molecular dynamics.

We consider the convergence behavior of replica-exchange molecular dynamics (REMD) [Sugita and Okamoto, Chem. Phys. Lett. 314, 141 (1999)] based on properties of the numerical integrators in the underlying isothermal molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We show that a variety of deterministic algorithms favored by molecular dynamics practitioners for constant-temperature simulation of biomolecules fail either to be measure invariant or irreducible, and are therefore not ergodic. We then show that REMD using these algorithms also fails to be ergodic. As a result, the entire configuration space may not be explored even in an infinitely long simulation, and the simulation may not converge to the desired equilibrium Boltzmann ensemble. Moreover, our analysis shows that for initial configurations with unfavorable energy, it may be impossible for the system to reach a region surrounding the minimum energy configuration. We demonstrate these failures of REMD algorithms for three small systems: a Gaussian distribution (simple harmonic oscillator dynamics), a bimodal mixture of Gaussians distribution, and the alanine dipeptide. Examination of the resulting phase plots and equilibrium configuration densities indicates significant errors in the ensemble generated by REMD simulation. We describe a simple modification to address these failures based on a stochastic hybrid Monte Carlo correction, and prove that this is ergodic.

Statistical prediction and molecular dynamics simulation.

We describe a statistical approach to the validation and improvement of molecular dynamics simulations of macromolecules. We emphasize the use of molecular dynamics simulations to calculate thermodynamic quantities that may be compared to experimental measurements, and the use of a common set of energetic parameters across multiple distinct molecules. We briefly review relevant results from the theory of stochastic processes and discuss the monitoring of convergence to equilibrium, the obtaining of confidence intervals for summary statistics corresponding to measured quantities, and an approach to validation and improvement of simulations based on out-of-sample prediction. We apply these methods to replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations of a set of eight helical peptides under the AMBER potential using implicit solvent. We evaluate the ability of these simulations to quantitatively reproduce experimental helicity measurements obtained by circular dichroism. In addition, we introduce notions of statistical predictive estimation for force-field parameter refinement. We perform a sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters of the potential, and introduce Bayesian updating of these parameters. We demonstrate the effect of parameter updating applied to the internal dielectric constant parameter on the out-of-sample prediction accuracy as measured by cross-validation.