Predictive Modeling Identifies Total Bleeds at 12-Weeks Postswitch to N8-GP Prophylaxis as a Predictor of Treatment Response.

BACKGROUND: Predicting annualized bleeding rate (ABR) during factor VIII (FVIII) prophylaxis for severe hemophilia A (SHA) is important for long-term outcomes. This study used supervised machine learning-based predictive modeling to identify predictors of long-term ABR during prophylaxis with an extended half-life FVIII. METHODS: Data were from 166 SHA patients who received N8-GP prophylaxis (50 IU/kg every 4 days) in the pathfinder 2 study. Predictive models were developed to identify variables associated with an ABR of ≤1 versus >1 during the trial's main phase (median follow-up of 469 days). Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC). Pre-N8-GP prophylaxis models learned from data collected at baseline; post-N8-GP prophylaxis models learned from data collected up to 12-weeks postswitch to N8-GP, and predicted ABR at the end of the outcome period (final year of treatment in the main phase). RESULTS: The predictive model using baseline variables had moderate performance (AUROC = 0.64) for predicting observed ABR. The most performant model used data collected at 12-weeks postswitch (AUROC = 0.79) with cumulative bleed count up to 12 weeks as the most informative variable, followed by baseline von Willebrand factor and mean FVIII at 30 minutes postdose. Univariate cumulative bleed count at 12 weeks performed equally well to the 12-weeks postswitch model (AUROC = 0.75). Pharmacokinetic measures were indicative, but not essential, to predict ABR. CONCLUSION: Cumulative bleed count up to 12-weeks postswitch was as informative as the 12-week post-switch predictive model for predicting long-term ABR, supporting alterations in prophylaxis based on treatment response.

Efficacy, Safety, and Mechanistic Insights of Cotadutide, a Dual Receptor Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 and Glucagon Agonist.

CONTEXT: Cotadutide is a dual receptor agonist with balanced glucagon-like peptide-1 and glucagon activity. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate different doses of cotadutide and investigate underlying mechanisms for its glucose-lowering effects. DESIGN/SETTING: Randomized, double-blind, phase 2a study conducted in 2 cohorts at 5 clinical trial sites. PATIENTS: Participants were 65 adult overweight/obese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus; 63 completed the study; 2 were withdrawn due to AEs. INTERVENTION: Once-daily subcutaneous cotadutide or placebo for 49 days. Doses (50-300 µg) were uptitrated weekly (cohort 1) or biweekly (cohort 2). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Co-primary end points (cohort 1) were percentage changes from baseline to end of treatment in glucose (area under the curve from 0 to 4 hours [AUC0-4h]) post-mixed-meal tolerance test (MMTT) and weight. Exploratory measures included postprandial insulin and gastric emptying time (GET; cohort 2). RESULTS: Patients received cotadutide (cohort 1, n = 26; cohort 2, n = 20) or placebo (cohort 1, n = 13; cohort 2, n = 6). Significant reductions were observed with cotadutide vs placebo in glucose AUC0-4h post MMTT (least squares mean [90% CI], -21.52% [-25.68, -17.37] vs 6.32% [0.45, 12.20]; P < 0.001) and body weight (-3.41% [-4.37, -2.44] vs -0.08% [-1.45, 1.28]; P = 0.002). A significant increase in insulin AUC0-4h post MMTT was observed with cotadutide (19.3 mU.h/L [5.9, 32.6]; P = 0.008) and GET was prolonged on day 43 with cotadutide vs placebo (t½: 117.2 minutes vs -42.9 minutes; P = 0.0392). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that the glucose-lowering effects of cotadutide are mediated by enhanced insulin secretion and delayed gastric emptying. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03244800.