Model-based prediction of nephropathia epidemica outbreaks based on climatological and vegetation data and bank vole population dynamics.

Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases in general are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses more specifically cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, while understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics pose numerous unsolved challenges. Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus, which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). The objective of this study was to develop a method that allows model-based predicting 3 months ahead of the occurrence of NE epidemics. Two data sets were utilized to develop and test the models. These data sets were concerned with NE cases in Finland and Belgium. In this study, we selected the most relevant inputs from all the available data for use in a dynamic linear regression (DLR) model. The number of NE cases in Finland were modelled using data from 1996 to 2008. The NE cases were predicted based on the time series data of average monthly air temperature (°C) and bank voles' trapping index using a DLR model. The bank voles' trapping index data were interpolated using a related dynamic harmonic regression model (DHR). Here, the DLR and DHR models used time-varying parameters. Both the DHR and DLR models were based on a unified state-space estimation framework. For the Belgium case, no time series of the bank voles' population dynamics were available. Several studies, however, have suggested that the population of bank voles is related to the variation in seed production of beech and oak trees in Northern Europe. Therefore, the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium was predicted based on a DLR model by using remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests, together with the oak and beech seed categories and average monthly air temperature (°C) using data from 2001 to 2009. Our results suggest that even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host population, the time variation in NE outbreaks in Finland could be predicted 3 months ahead with a 34% mean relative prediction error (MRPE). This took into account solely the population dynamics of the carrier species (bank voles). The time series analysis also revealed that climate change, as represented by the vegetation index, changes in forest phenology derived from satellite images and directly measured air temperature, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission. NE outbreaks in Belgium were predicted 3 months ahead with a 40% MRPE, based only on the climatological and vegetation data, in this case, without any knowledge of the bank vole's population dynamics. In this research, we demonstrated that NE outbreaks can be predicted using climate and vegetation data or the bank vole's population dynamics, by using dynamic data-based models with time-varying parameters. Such a predictive modelling approach might be used as a step towards the development of new tools for the prevention of future NE outbreaks.

Relating land cover and spatial distribution of nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis in Belgium.

Lyme borreliosis (LB) and nephropathia epidemica (NE) are zoonoses resulting from two different transmission mechanisms and the action of two different pathogens: the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi and the Puumala virus, respectively. The landscape configuration is known to influence the spatial spread of both diseases by affecting vector demography and human exposure to infection. Yet, the connections between landscape and disease have rarely been quantified, thereby hampering the exploitation of land cover data sources to segment areas in function of risk. This study implemented a data-driven approach to relate land cover metrics and an indicator of NE/LB risk at different scales of observation of the landscape. Our results showed the suitability of the modeling approach (r² > 0.75, ρ < 0.001) and highlighted the relevance of the scale of observation in the set of landscape attributes found to influence disease risk as well as common and specific risk factors of NE and LB.

Allometry and evaluation of in situ optical LAI determination in Scots pine: a case study in Belgium.

We evaluated several optical methods for in situ estimation of leaf area index (LAI) in a Belgian Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stand. The results obtained were compared with LAI determined from allometric relationships established in the same stand. We found high correlations between branch cross-sectional area, diameter at breast height (DBH) and basal area as dependent variables, and leaf mass, needle area and crown projection as independent variables. We then compared LAI estimated by allometry with LAI determined by three optical methods (LAI-2000, TRAC and digital hemispherical photography) both before and after corrections for blue light scattering, clumping and non-leafy material. Estimates of stand LAI of Scots pine ranged from 1.52 for hemispherical photography to 3.57 for the allometric estimate based on DBH. There was no significant difference (alpha = 0.01) between the allometric LAI estimates and the optical LAI values corrected for blue light scattering, clumping and interception by non-leafy material. However, we observed high sensitivity of the optical LAI estimates to the various conversion factors, particularly to the clumping factor, indicating the need for caution when correcting LAI measured by optical methods.

Geographical and genetic distances among zooplankton populations in a set of interconnected ponds: a plea for using GIS modelling of the effective geographical distance.

In systems of interconnected ponds or lakes, the dispersal of zooplankton may be mediated by the active population component, with rivulets and overflows functioning as dispersal pathways. Using a landscape-based approach, we modelled the effective geographical distance among a set of interconnected ponds (De Maten, Genk, Belgium) in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. The first model (the Landscape Model; LM) corrects for the presence of direct connections among ponds and was based on the existing landscape structure (i.e. network of connecting elements among ponds, travelling distance and direction of the current). A second model (the Flow Rate Model; FRM) also incorporated field data on flow rates in the connecting elements as the driving force for the passive dispersal of the active zooplankton population component. Finally, the third model (the Dispersal Rate Model; DRM) incorporated field data on zooplankton dispersal rates. An analysis of the pattern of genetic differentiation among Daphnia ambigua populations inhabiting 10 ponds in the pond complex reveals that the effective geographical distance as modelled by the flow rate and the dispersal rate model provide a better approximation of the true rates of genetic exchange among populations than mere Euclidean geographical distances or the landscape model that takes into account solely the presence of physical connections.

A possible misdiagnosis in patients presenting with acute HBsAg-negative hepatitis: the role of hepatitis delta virus.

We describe here two cases of delta hepatitis (a coinfection and a superinfection) presenting as acute HBsAg-negative hepatitis. The first patient, a parenteral drug abuser, had a biphasic course of the disease, with HBsAg detectable transiently only during the relapse. Testing for delta markers on stored sera gave evidence of HBV/HDV coinfection. The other patient, a hospital nurse, chronic asymptomatic carrier of HBsAg, developed fulminant hepatitis with the transient appearance of antibody to HBsAg. She survived massive liver necrosis, and serological analysis of HDV markers documented a hepatitis delta virus superinfection. These cases demonstrate the possible substantial repression of HBV gene products exerted by the replication of delta virus, with a likely misdiagnosis if delta markers are not determined in serial serum samples.

Clinical observations on the use of ketamine hydrochloride in wild carnivores.

Ketamine hydrochloride was administered intramuscularly to 171 individual animals of five carnivore species. The drug was used in doses which resulted in a range of effects from simple immobilization to a surgical plane of anesthesia during which minor operations were conducted. The drug was found to have a wide margin of safety, was easily administered by syringe, and took effect rapidly. Undesirable side effects of excessive salivation and maintenance of muscle tone were readily controlled by combining ketamine hydrochloride with other drugs.