ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: The time required to reach clinical remission varies in patients with chronic urticaria (CU). The objective of this study is to develop a predictive model using a machine learning methodology to predict time to clinical remission for patients with CU. METHODS: Adults with ≥ 2 ICD-9/10 relevant CU diagnosis codes/CU-related treatment > 6 weeks apart were identified in the Optum deidentified electronic health record dataset (January 2007 to June 2019). Clinical remission was defined as ≥ 12 months without CU diagnosis/CU-related treatment. A random survival forest was used to predict time from diagnosis to clinical remission for each patient based on clinical and demographic features available at diagnosis. Model performance was assessed using concordance, which indicates the degree of agreement between observed and predicted time to remission. To characterize clinically relevant groups, features were summarized among cohorts that were defined based on quartiles of predicted time to remission. RESULTS: Among 112,443 patients, 73.5% reached clinical remission, with a median of 336 days from diagnosis. From 1876 initial features, 176 were retained in the final model, which predicted a median of 318 days to remission. The model showed good performance with a concordance of 0.62. Patients with predicted longer time to remission tended to be older with delayed CU diagnosis, and have more comorbidities, more laboratory tests, higher body mass index, and polypharmacy during the 12-month period before the first CU diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Applying machine learning to real-world data enabled accurate prediction of time to clinical remission and identified multiple relevant demographic and clinical variables with predictive value. Ongoing work aims to further validate and integrate these findings into clinical applications for CU management.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Suicidal ideation or behavior are core symptoms of major depressive disorder (MDD). This study aimed to understand heterogeneity among patients with MDD and acute suicidal ideation or behavior. METHODS: Adults with a diagnosis of MDD on the same day or 6 months before a claim for suicidal ideation or behavior (index date) were identified in the MarketScan® Databases (10/01/2014-04/30/2019). A mathematical algorithm was used to cluster patients on characteristics of care measured pre-index. Patient care pathways were described by cluster during the 12-month pre-index period and up to 12 months post-index. RESULTS: Among 38,876 patients with MDD and acute suicidal ideation or behavior, three clusters were identified. Across clusters, pre-index exposure to mental healthcare was revealed as a key differentiator: Cluster 1 (N = 16,025) was least exposed, Cluster 2 (N = 5640) moderately exposed, and Cluster 3 (N = 17,211) most exposed. Patients whose MDD diagnosis was first observed during their index event comprised 86.0% and 72.8% of Clusters 1 and 2, respectively; in Cluster 3, all patients had an MDD diagnosis pre-index. Within 30 days post-index, in Clusters 1, 2, and 3, respectively, 79.3%, 85.2%, and 88.2% used mental health services, including outpatient visits for MDD. Within 12 months post-index, 61.5%, 91.5%, and 84.6% had one or more antidepressant claim, respectively. Per-patient index event costs averaged $5614, $6645, and $5853, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with MDD and acute suicidal ideation or behavior least exposed to the healthcare system pre-index similarly received the least care post-index. An opportunity exists to optimize treatment and follow-up with mental health services.
