Clustering blood donors via mixtures of product partition models with covariates.

Motivated by the problem of accurately predicting gap times between successive blood donations, we present here a general class of Bayesian nonparametric models for clustering. These models allow for the prediction of new recurrences, accommodating covariate information that describes the personal characteristics of the sample individuals. We introduce a prior for the random partition of the sample individuals, which encourages two individuals to be co-clustered if they have similar covariate values. Our prior generalizes product partition models with covariates (PPMx) models in the literature, which are defined in terms of cohesion and similarity functions. We assume cohesion functions that yield mixtures of PPMx models, while our similarity functions represent the denseness of a cluster. We show that including covariate information in the prior specification improves the posterior predictive performance and helps interpret the estimated clusters in terms of covariates in the blood donation application.

Captive breeding programs based on family groups in polyploid sturgeons.

In species with long life cycles and discontinuous availability of individuals to reproduction, implementing a long-term captive breeding program can be difficult or impossible. In such cases, managing diversity among familiar groups instead of individuals could become a suitable approach to avoid inbreeding and increase the possibility to accomplish a breeding scheme. This is the case of several sturgeon species including the Adriatic sturgeon, whose recovery depends on the management of a few captive stocks directly descended from the same group of wild parents. In the present study, relatedness among 445 potential breeders was inferred with a novel software for pedigree reconstruction in tetraploids ("BreedingSturgeons"). This information was used to plan a breeding scheme considering familiar groups as breeding units and identifying mating priorities. A two-step strategy is proposed: a short-term breeding program, relying on the 13 remaining F0 individuals of certain wild origin; and a long-term plan based on F1 families. Simulations to evaluate the loss of alleles in the F2 generation under different pairing strategies and assess the number of individuals to breed, costs and logistical aquaculture constraints were performed. The strategy proposed is transferable to the several other tetraploid sturgeon species on the brink of extinction.