Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies.

Effective strategies of vaccine prioritization are essential to mitigate the impacts of severe infectious diseases. We investigate the role of infection fatality ratio (IFR) and social contact matrices on vaccination prioritization using a compartmental epidemic model fueled by real-world data of different diseases and countries. Our study confirms that massive and early vaccination is extremely effective to reduce the disease fatality if the contagion is mitigated, but the effectiveness is increasingly reduced as vaccination beginning delays in an uncontrolled epidemiological scenario. The optimal and least effective prioritization strategies depend non-linearly on epidemiological variables. Regions of the epidemiological parameter space, in which prioritizing the most vulnerable population is more effective than the most contagious individuals, depend strongly on the IFR age profile being, for example, substantially broader for COVID-19 in comparison with seasonal influenza. Demographics and social contact matrices deform the phase diagrams but do not alter their qualitative shapes.

Data-driven approach in a compartmental epidemic model to assess undocumented infections.

Nowcasting and forecasting of epidemic spreading rely on incidence series of reported cases to derive the fundamental epidemiological parameters for a given pathogen. Two relevant drawbacks for predictions are the unknown fractions of undocumented cases and levels of nonpharmacological interventions, which span highly heterogeneously across different places and times. We describe a simple data-driven approach using a compartmental model including asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic contagions that allows to estimate both the level of undocumented infections and the value of effective reproductive number R t from time series of reported cases, deaths, and epidemiological parameters. The method was applied to epidemic series for COVID-19 across different municipalities in Brazil allowing to estimate the heterogeneity level of under-reporting across different places. The reproductive number derived within the current framework is little sensitive to both diagnosis and infection rates during the asymptomatic states. The methods described here can be extended to more general cases if data is available and adapted to other epidemiological approaches and surveillance data.

Monitoring the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil at municipal and federative units level / Monitorando o número de casos e óbitos por COVID-19 no Brasil em nível munipal e de unidades federativas

We present a dataset containing the reported number of COVID-19 cases and deaths at municipal and federative units level in Brazil. Data is aggregated daily from official sources with the most updated numbers, providing a reliable, free and simple resource for researchers, health authorities and general public. Interactive pages in English and Portuguese are available, containing maps, graphs and tables with all the data. Data about recovered, suspected and tests made are also available for most federative units.

Apresentamos um banco de dados contendo o número de casos e óbitos reportados por COVID-19 no Brasil em nível municipal e de unidades federativas. Os dados são agregados diariamente a partir de fontes oficiais com os números mais atualizados, disponibilizando um recurso confiável, livre e simples para pesquisadores, autoridades desaúde e o público geral. Páginas interativas em inglês e português estão disponíveis, contendo mapa, gráficos e tabelas com todos os dados. Dados sobre recuperados, suspeitos e testes realizados também estão disponíveis para a maioria das unidades federativas.

Robustness and fragility of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic models on complex networks.

We analyze two alterations of the standard susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics that preserve the central properties of spontaneous healing and infection capacity of a vertex increasing unlimitedly with its degree. All models have the same epidemic thresholds in mean-field theories but depending on the network properties, simulations yield a dual scenario, in which the epidemic thresholds of the modified SIS models can be either dramatically altered or remain unchanged in comparison with the standard dynamics. For uncorrelated synthetic networks having a power-law degree distribution with exponent γ<5/2, the SIS dynamics are robust exhibiting essentially the same outcomes for all investigated models. A threshold in better agreement with the heterogeneous rather than quenched mean-field theory is observed in the modified dynamics for exponent γ>5/2. Differences are more remarkable for γ>3, where a finite threshold is found in the modified models in contrast with the vanishing threshold of the original one. This duality is elucidated in terms of epidemic lifespan on star graphs. We verify that the activation of the modified SIS models is triggered in the innermost component of the network given by a k-core decomposition for γ<3 while it happens only for γ<5/2 in the standard model. For γ>3, the activation in the modified dynamics is collective involving essentially the whole network while it is triggered by hubs in the standard SIS. The duality also appears in the finite-size scaling of the critical quantities where mean-field behaviors are observed for the modified but not for the original dynamics. Our results feed the discussions about the most proper conceptions of epidemic models to describe real systems and the choices of the most suitable theoretical approaches to deal with these models.

Griffiths phases in infinite-dimensional, non-hierarchical modular networks.

Griffiths phases (GPs), generated by the heterogeneities on modular networks, have recently been suggested to provide a mechanism, rid of fine parameter tuning, to explain the critical behavior of complex systems. One conjectured requirement for systems with modular structures was that the network of modules must be hierarchically organized and possess finite dimension. We investigate the dynamical behavior of an activity spreading model, evolving on heterogeneous random networks with highly modular structure and organized non-hierarchically. We observe that loosely coupled modules act as effective rare-regions, slowing down the extinction of activation. As a consequence, we find extended control parameter regions with continuously changing dynamical exponents for single network realizations, preserved after finite size analyses, as in a real GP. The avalanche size distributions of spreading events exhibit robust power-law tails. Our findings relax the requirement of hierarchical organization of the modular structure, which can help to rationalize the criticality of modular systems in the framework of GPs.

Griffiths effects of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on random power-law networks.

We provide numerical evidence for slow dynamics of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model evolving on finite-size random networks with power-law degree distributions. Extensive simulations were done by averaging the activity density over many realizations of networks. We investigated the effects of outliers in both highly fluctuating (natural cutoff) and nonfluctuating (hard cutoff) most connected vertices. Logarithmic and power-law decays in time were found for natural and hard cutoffs, respectively. This happens in extended regions of the control parameter space λ(1)<λ<λ(2), suggesting Griffiths effects, induced by the topological inhomogeneities. Optimal fluctuation theory considering sample-to-sample fluctuations of the pseudothresholds is presented to explain the observed slow dynamics. A quasistationary analysis shows that response functions remain bounded at λ(2). We argue these to be signals of a smeared transition. However, in the thermodynamic limit the Griffiths effects loose their relevancy and have a conventional critical point at λ(c)=0. Since many real networks are composed by heterogeneous and weakly connected modules, the slow dynamics found in our analysis of independent and finite networks can play an important role for the deeper understanding of such systems.