ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Despite a surge of 15,000 deaths caused by the 2003 heat wave in France, the annual winter excess mortality rate remains a recurring phenomenon that is quantitatively greater than the isolated summer event. METHODS: Coefficients of Seasonal Variations in Mortality (CSVMs) were calculated using monthly mortality data from 1998 to 2007 in France. CSVM was a percentage representing the excess death rate from December to March inclusively, against average, monthly mortality from the other 8 non-winter months. Sociodemographic parameters and environmental factors were also obtained. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors of increased winter mortality. RESULTS: The data revealed an annual winter excess death of 23,836 (± 7951) (mean ± 1 standard deviation) cases. On average, CSVM in France was +14.94% (13.54 [12.03; 19.70]) (mean, median, and interquartile intervals). Multivariate analysis results revealed that several factors contributed to the CSVM: sociodemographics, such as age (CSVM higher for the population older than 75) and death location (CSVM higher in nursing homes), environmental factors, such as the severity of the winter season (per monthly minimal temperature), and estimated number of influenza-like illnesses (ILI). Correlation between observed and predicted CSVMs was extremely consistent (R(2) = 0.91). CONCLUSION: There was a fundamental belief that residents in nursing homes were well protected from cold spells and their consequences. Our results revealed this to be a mere misperception.
Subject(s)
Climate , Cold Temperature/adverse effects , Mortality/trends , Residential Facilities , Respiratory Tract Infections/mortality , Seasons , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , France/epidemiology , Humans , Infant , Influenza, Human , Male , Middle Aged , Multivariate Analysis , Respiratory Tract Infections/virology , Young AdultABSTRACT
Pneumonias in elderly are frequent and severe. They require an accurate assessment following clinical, biological and radiological steps. Each of them can contribute to give answers to the following questions: does this patient need emergency hospitalisation? Is the infection really bacterial and pulmonary? Should antibiotics be started? Which others treatments should be associated for the infection itself and for comorbid conditions? Concerning prevention, every effort must be done to decrease the incidence of these infections, especially vaccination. Pulmonary infections in nursing home need specific attention: cumulation of bad prognosis factors, risk of epidemic propagation, and vaccination of all people caring patients when required.
