Prevalence of clinical forms of Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis - data from the RAISE study.

Background: There is a lack of up-to-date estimates about the prevalence of Chagas disease (ChD) clinical presentations and, therefore, we aimed to assess the prevalence of clinical forms of ChD among seropositive adults, pooling available data. Methods: A systematic review was conducted in Medline, Embase, Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde and Cochrane databases looking for studies published from 1990 to August 2023, which investigated the prevalence of ChD clinical forms among seropositive adults, including: (i) indeterminate phase, (ii) chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCM), (iii) digestive and (iv) mixed (CCM + digestive) forms. Pooled estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using random-effects models. Studies quality and risk of bias was assessed with the Leboeuf-Yde and Lauritsen tool. Heterogeneity was assessed with the I2 statistic. The study was registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42022354237). Findings: 1246 articles were selected for screening and 73 studies were included in the final analysis (17,132 patients, 44% men). Most studies were conducted with outpatients (n = 50), followed by population-based studies (n = 15). The pooled prevalence of the ChD clinical forms was: indeterminate 42.6% (95% CI: 36.9-48.6), CCM 42.7% (95% CI: 37.3-48.3), digestive 17.7% (95% CI: 14.9-20.9), and mixed 10.2% (95% CI: 7.9-13.2). In population-based studies, prevalence was lower for CCM (31.2%, 95% CI: 24.4-38.9) and higher for indeterminate (47.2%, 95% CI: 39.0-55.5) form. In meta-regression, age was inversely associated with the prevalence of indeterminate (ß = -0.05, P < 0.001) form, and directly associated with CCM (ß = 0.06, P < 0.001) and digestive (ß = 0.02, P < 0.001) forms. Heterogeneity was overall high. Interpretation: Compared to previous publications, our pooled estimates show a higher prevalence of CCM among ChD seropositive patients, but similar rates of the digestive form. Funding: This study was funded by the World Heart Federation, through a research collaboration with Novartis Pharma AG.

The Burden of Chagas Disease in the Contemporary World: The RAISE Study.

Chagas disease (ChD), a Neglected Tropical Disease, has witnessed a transformative epidemiological landscape characterized by a trend of reduction in prevalence, shifting modes of transmission, urbanization, and globalization. Historically a vector-borne disease in rural areas of Latin America, effective control measures have reduced the incidence in many countries, leading to a demographic shift where most affected individuals are now adults. However, challenges persist in regions like the Gran Chaco, and emerging oral transmission in the Amazon basin adds complexity. Urbanization and migration from rural to urban areas and to non-endemic countries, especially in Europe and the US, have redefined the disease's reach. These changing patterns contribute to uncertainties in estimating ChD prevalence, exacerbated by the lack of recent data, scarcity of surveys, and reliance on outdated models. Besides, ChD's lifelong natural history, marked by acute and chronic phases, introduces complexities in diagnosis, particularly in non-endemic regions where healthcare provider awareness is low. The temporal dissociation of infection and clinical manifestations, coupled with underreporting, has rendered ChD invisible in health statistics. Deaths attributed to ChD cardiomyopathy often go unrecognized, camouflaged under alternative causes. Understanding these challenges, the RAISE project aims to reassess the burden of ChD and ChD cardiomyopathy. The project is a collaborative effort of the World Heart Federation, Novartis Global Health, the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, and a team of specialists coordinated by Brazil's Federal University of Minas Gerais. Employing a multidimensional strategy, the project seeks to refine estimates of ChD-related deaths, conduct systematic reviews on seroprevalence and prevalence of clinical forms, enhance existing modeling frameworks, and calculate the global economic burden, considering healthcare expenditures and service access. The RAISE project aspires to bridge knowledge gaps, raise awareness, and inform evidence-based health policies and research initiatives, positioning ChD prominently on the global health agenda.

Exposure to and Burden of Major Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors in Brazil and its States, 1990-2019: The Global Burden of Disease Study.

INTRODUCTION: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) have become the main cause of disease burden in Brazil. Our objective was to describe trends (1990 to 2019) in prevalence and attributable burden of five modifiable risk factors and related metabolic risk factors in Brazil and its states. METHODS: In Global Burden of Disease 2019 analyses, we described trends in prevalence of modifiable risk factors and their metabolic mediators as percentage change in Summary Exposure Value (SEV). We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to the risk factors. RESULTS: Age-adjusted exposures to alcohol [41.0%, Uncertainty Interval (UI): 24.2 - 63.4], red meat (61.2%, UI: 42.4-92.3), low physical activity (3.9%, UI: -5-17.5) and ambient particulate matter pollution (3.3%, UI: -48.9-128.0) have worsened. Those for smoking (-51.4%, UI: -54.7- - 47.8), diet low in fruits (-28.1%, UI: -39.1- -18.7) and vegetables (-19.6%, UI: -32.7 - -8.7), and household air pollution (-85.3%, UI: -92.9- -74.3) have improved. All mediating metabolic risk factors, except high blood pressure (0.7%, UI: -6.9-8.3), have worsened: BMI (110.2%, UI: 78.6-161.7), hyperglycemia (15.1%, UI: 9.3-21.2), kidney dysfunction (12.0%, UI: 8.4-17.2), and high LDL-c (11.8%, UI: 6.9-17.2). CONCLUSIONS: A variable pattern of progress and failure in controlling modifiable risk factors has been accompanied by major worsening in most metabolic risk factors. The mixed success in public health measures to control modifiable risk factors for NCDs, when gauged by the related trends in metabolic risk factors, alert to the need for stronger actions to control NCDs in the future.

Premature mortality due to four main non-communicable diseases and suicide in Brazil and its states from 1990 to 2019: A Global Burden of Disease Study.

INTRODUCTION: The goal of reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires close monitoring. Our objective is to characterize the decline of premature NCD mortality in Brazil based on Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019 estimates. METHODS: We used GBD 2019 data to estimate death rates of the four main NCDs - cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases. We estimated the unconditional probability of death between ages 30 to 69, as recommended by the World Health Organization, as well as premature crude- and age-standardized death rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost for these conditions. We also estimated trends in suicide (self-harm) death rates. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized unconditional probability of premature death declined -1.4%/year (UI: -1.7%;-1.0%) . Age-standardized death rates declined -1.5%/year (UI: -1.9%; -1.2%), and crude death rates -0.6%/year (UI: (-1.0%; -0.2%). Level of development correlated strongly with the rate of decline, with greatest declines occurring in the Southeast, Center West and South regions. Age-standardized mortality from self-harm declined, most notably in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: Premature mortality due to the main NCDs has declined from 1990 in Brazil, although at a diminishing rate over time. The unconditional probability of death and the age-standardized mortality rate produced similar estimates of decline for the four main NCDs, and mirror well decline in mortality from all NCDs. Declines, especially more recent ones, fall short of the international goals. Strategic public health actions are needed. The challenge to implement them will be great, considering the political and economic instability currently faced by Brazil.

Premature mortality due to four main non-communicable diseases and suicide in Brazil and its states from 1990 to 2019: A Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract INTRODUCTION: The goal of reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires close monitoring. Our objective is to characterize the decline of premature NCD mortality in Brazil based on Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019 estimates. METHODS: We used GBD 2019 data to estimate death rates of the four main NCDs - cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases. We estimated the unconditional probability of death between ages 30 to 69, as recommended by the World Health Organization, as well as premature crude- and age-standardized death rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost for these conditions. We also estimated trends in suicide (self-harm) death rates. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized unconditional probability of premature death declined -1.4%/year (UI: -1.7%;-1.0%) . Age-standardized death rates declined -1.5%/year (UI: -1.9%; -1.2%), and crude death rates -0.6%/year (UI: (-1.0%; -0.2%). Level of development correlated strongly with the rate of decline, with greatest declines occurring in the Southeast, Center West and South regions. Age-standardized mortality from self-harm declined, most notably in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: Premature mortality due to the main NCDs has declined from 1990 in Brazil, although at a diminishing rate over time. The unconditional probability of death and the age-standardized mortality rate produced similar estimates of decline for the four main NCDs, and mirror well decline in mortality from all NCDs. Declines, especially more recent ones, fall short of the international goals. Strategic public health actions are needed. The challenge to implement them will be great, considering the political and economic instability currently faced by Brazil.

Exposure to and Burden of Major Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors in Brazil and its States, 1990-2019: The Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) have become the main cause of disease burden in Brazil. Our objective was to describe trends (1990 to 2019) in prevalence and attributable burden of five modifiable risk factors and related metabolic risk factors in Brazil and its states. METHODS: In Global Burden of Disease 2019 analyses, we described trends in prevalence of modifiable risk factors and their metabolic mediators as percentage change in Summary Exposure Value (SEV). We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to the risk factors. RESULTS: Age-adjusted exposures to alcohol [41.0%, Uncertainty Interval (UI): 24.2 - 63.4], red meat (61.2%, UI: 42.4-92.3), low physical activity (3.9%, UI: -5-17.5) and ambient particulate matter pollution (3.3%, UI: -48.9-128.0) have worsened. Those for smoking (-51.4%, UI: -54.7- - 47.8), diet low in fruits (-28.1%, UI: -39.1- -18.7) and vegetables (-19.6%, UI: -32.7 - -8.7), and household air pollution (-85.3%, UI: -92.9- -74.3) have improved. All mediating metabolic risk factors, except high blood pressure (0.7%, UI: -6.9-8.3), have worsened: BMI (110.2%, UI: 78.6-161.7), hyperglycemia (15.1%, UI: 9.3-21.2), kidney dysfunction (12.0%, UI: 8.4-17.2), and high LDL-c (11.8%, UI: 6.9-17.2). CONCLUSIONS: A variable pattern of progress and failure in controlling modifiable risk factors has been accompanied by major worsening in most metabolic risk factors. The mixed success in public health measures to control modifiable risk factors for NCDs, when gauged by the related trends in metabolic risk factors, alert to the need for stronger actions to control NCDs in the future.

The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections and observed evolution, May-August, 2020. / A pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil: a série de projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada, maio a agosto de 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. METHODS: The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. RESULTS: The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.

Epidemiology of chronic back pain among adults and elderly from Southern Brazil: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic back pain (CBP) can negatively affect one's quality of life and health condition, posing significant social and economic burdens. OBJECTIVES: (1) To determine the prevalence of CBP and analyze associated factors in adult and elderly individuals in a municipality in southern Brazil; (2) to verify who sought medical attention or missed work because of back pain; and (3) to estimate the impact of CBP on selected health outcomes. METHODS: This was a population-based cross-sectional study conducted with individuals aged 18 years and older. CBP was defined as "pain for three consecutive months in the cervical, thoracic, or lumbar regions in the last year." Demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral, and physical and mental health information was collected. The impact of CBP was assessed by the etiological fraction method. RESULTS: The prevalence of CBP was 20.7% (95% CI: 18.3, 23.0) among the 1300 study participants. The factors associated with CBP were women, elderly, smokers, obesity, and sleeping fewer hours per night, as well as those with higher mental stress levels, history of fracture, arthritis/rheumatism, and work-related musculoskeletal disorder/repetitive strain injury. One-third of those with CBP missed work (31%) and 68% visited the physician over a 12-month period. All health outcomes analyzed (poor or very poor sleep quality, regular or poor health perception, worsened quality of life, depressive symptoms, perceived sadness) were significantly associated with CBP. CONCLUSION: One in five adults or elderly reported having CBP over the previous 12 months. This condition was associated with poorer health perception, poorer quality of life, and depressive symptoms.

A pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil: a série de projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada, maio a agosto de 2020 / La Pandemia de COVID-19 en Brasil: Serie de Proyecciones del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation y la Evolución Observada, desde mayo hasta agosto, 2020 / The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections and observed evolution, May-August, 2020

Objetivo: Descrever as projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados, apresentar sua acurácia e discutir suas implicações. Métodos: As previsões do IHME de maio a agosto de 2020, para o Brasil e alguns estados, foram comparadas ao número de mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados: A projeção prevê 182.809 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1º de dezembro de 2020 no Brasil. O aumento no uso de máscara poderia poupar ~17 mil óbitos. O erro médio no número acumulado de óbitos em duas, quatro e seis semanas das projeções foi de 13%, 18% e 22% respectivamente. Conclusão: Projeções de curto e médio prazo dispõem dados importantes e acurácia suficiente para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e sociedade geral. Após trajeto difícil até agosto, a pandemia, conforme as projeções, terá declínio sustentado, embora demorado, causando em média 400 óbitos/dia no início de dezembro.

Objetivo: Describir las proyecciones del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation para COVID-19 en Brasil y sus estados, presentar su precisión y discutir sus implicaciones. Métodos Las previsiones del IHME de mayo a agosto de 2020 para Brasil y algunos estados, se compararon con las muertes acumuladas observadas. Resultados La proyección prevé 182.809 muertes por la pandemia hasta el 1º de diciembre de 2020 en Brasil. Un aumento en el uso de mascarillas podría evitar ~17.000 muertes. El error medio en el número acumulado de muertes en 2, 4 y 6 semanas de las proyecciones fue de 13%, 18% y 22%. Conclusión: Las proyecciones de corto y medio plazo proporcionan datos importantes y con suficiente precisión para informar a los administradores de salud, autoridades electas y a la sociedad. Después de un camino difícil hasta agosto, la pandemia, según las proyecciones, tendrá una disminución sostenida, pero lenta, y seguirá causando alrededor de 400 muertes/día a principios de diciembre.

Objective: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods: The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively. Conclusion: Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.

Epidemiologia das cirurgias traumato-ortopédicas em dois hospitais do extremo sul do Brasil / Epidemiology of trauma and orthopaedic surgery in two hospitals from Southern Brazil / Epidemiología de las cirugías traumatológicas y ortopédicas en dos hospitales del extremo sur de Brasil

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o perfil dos pacientes submetidos a cirurgias traumato-ortopédicas. Trata-se de um estudo transversal, incluindo todos os pacientes submetidos a cirurgias traumato-ortopédicas em hospitais centro de referência estadual na cidade do Rio Grande (RS), no ano de 2014. Os dados foram coletados a partir dos prontuários dos pacientes. Foram coletadas informações de 1.791 cirurgias. Os resultados demonstraram que 57,7% dos pacientes eram do sexo masculino e a média de idade foi de 46,1 anos (DP = 22,2). As cirurgias foram realizadas predominantemente nos membros inferiores (60,6%) e a lesão mais frequente foi a fratura (61,1%). A maior parte das lesões teve causa traumática (66,3%), e as quedas representaram 54,2% dessas causas. A mediana do tempo de internação foi de três dias (média = 5,8). As informações obtidas a partir deste estudo poderão contribuir para um maior conhecimento do tipo de serviço prestado, auxiliando na gestão, no planejamento e no direcionamento de políticas públicas.

This study evaluates the profile of patients undergoing trauma and orthopedic surgery. A cross-sectional research was conducted with all patients undergoing trauma and orthopedic surgery in two state reference center hospitals in the city of Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in 2014. Data were collected from patient medical records, totaling 1,791 surgeries. Results showed that 57.7% of patients were men, with an mean age of 46.1 years (SD = 22.2). Surgeries were performed predominantly in the lower limbs (60.6%), the most common injury was fractures (61.1%). Most injuries were traumatic (66.3%), and falls accounted for 54.2% of these causes. The median length of hospitalization was three days (mean = 5.8). These findings may contribute to a better understanding of the type of service provided, helping in the management, planning and direction of public policy.

El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar el perfil de los pacientes sometidos a cirugías traumatológicas y ortopédicas. Se trata de un estudio transversal, que incluyó a todos los pacientes sometidos a cirugías traumatológicas y ortopédicas en hospitales centros de referencia estaduales de la ciudad de Rio Grande, en Rio Grande do Sul (Brasil), en 2014. Los datos se recogieron de las historias clínicas de los pacientes. Se recopiló información de 1.791 cirugías. Los resultados mostraron que el 57,7% de los pacientes eran del sexo masculino y que la edad media fue de 46,1 años (DE = 22,2). Las cirugías se realizaron predominantemente en los miembros inferiores (60,6%), y la lesión más frecuente fue la fractura (61,1%). La mayoría de las lesiones tuvo una causa traumática (66,3%), y las caídas representaron el 54,2% de estas causas. La mediana de estancia de hospitalización fue de tres días (media = 5,8). La información recabada en este estudio puede contribuir a una mejor comprensión del tipo de servicio que se brinda, ayudando en la gestión, planificación y orientación de las políticas públicas.

The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: the Series of Projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and the Ensuing Evolution, from May to August, 2020 / La Pandemia de COVID-19 en Brasil: Serie de Proyecciones del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation y la Evolución Observada, desde Maio hasta Agosto, 2020 / A pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil: a série de projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada, maio ­ agosto de 2020

Objective: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods: We describe projections from May to August, 2020 for Brazil and selected states, comparing them with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The average error in projections of the cumulative number of deaths in 2, 4 and 6 weeks was 13%, 18% and 22%. Conclusion: IHME short, and medium term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. After presenting a very troublesome course to August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily and slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.

Objetivo: Descrever as projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados, apresentar sua acurácia e discutir suas implicações. Métodos: As previsões do IHME de maio a agosto de 2020, para o Brasil e alguns estados, foram comparadas ao número de mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados: A projeção prevê 182.809 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1o de dezembro de 2020 no Brasil. O aumento no uso de máscara poderia poupar ~17.000 óbitos. O erro médio no número acumulado de óbitos em duas, quatro e seis semanas das projeções foi de 13%, 18% e 22% respectivamente. Conclusão: Projeções de curto e médio prazo dispõem dados importantes e acurácia suficiente para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e sociedade geral. Após trajeto difícil até agosto, a pandemia, conforme as projeções, terá declínio sustentado, embora demorado, causando em média 400 óbitos/dia no início de dezembro.

Physical inactivity as a risk factor for all-cause mortality in Brazil (1990-2017).

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the mortality from all causes as a result of physical inactivity in Brazil and in Brazilian states over 28 years (1990-2017). METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for Brazil and states were used. The metrics used were the summary exposure value (SEV), the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rates, and the fraction of population risk attributable to physical inactivity. RESULTS: The Brazilian population presented risk of exposure to physical inactivity of (age-standardized SEV) of 59% (95% U.I. 22-97) in 1990 and 59% in 2017 (95% U.I. 25-99). Physical inactivity contributed a significant number of deaths (1990, 22,537, 95% U.I. 12,157-34,745; 2017, 32,410, 95% U.I. 17,976-49,657) in the analyzed period. These values represented mortality rates standardized by age (per 100,000 inhabitants) of 31 (95% U.I. 17-48) in 1990 and 15 (95% U.I. 8-23) in 2017. From 1990 to 2017, a decrease in standardized death rate from all causes attributable to physical inactivity was observed in Brazil (- 52%, 95% U.I. - 54 to - 49). The Brazilian states with better socioeconomic conditions presented greater reductions in age-standardized mortality (male: rho = 0.80; female: rho 0.84) over the period of 28 years. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the promotion of physical activity in the Brazilian population for the prevention of early mortality.

The burden of disease among Brazilian older adults and the challenge for health policies: results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Brazil is the world's fifth most populous nation, and is currently experimenting a fast demographic aging process in a context of scarce resources and social inequalities. To understand the health profile of older adults in Brazil is fundamental for planning public policies. METHODS: The estimates were derived from data obtained through the collaboration between the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics provided the population estimates. Data on causes of death came from the Mortality Information System. To calculate morbidity, population-based studies on the prevalence of diseases in Brazil were comprehensively searched, in addition to information obtained from national databases such as the Hospital Information System, the Outpatient Information System, and the Injury Information System. We presented the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates among Brazilian older adults (60+ years old) for life expectancy at birth (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE), cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), from 2000 to 2017. RESULTS: LE at birth significantly increased from 71.3 years (95% UI to 70.9-71.8) to 75.2 years (95% UI 74.7-75.7). There was a trend of increasing HALE, from 62.2 years (95% UI 59.54-64.5) to 65.5 years (95% UI 62.6-68.0). The proportion of DALYs among older adults increased from 7.3 to 10.3%. Chronic noncommunicable diseases are the leading cause of death among middle aged and older adults, while Alzheimer's disease is a leading cause only among older adults. Mood disorders, musculoskeletal pain, and hearing or vision losses are among the leading causes of disability. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in LE and the decrease of the DALYs rates are probably results of the improvement of social conditions and health policies. However, the smaller increase of HALE than LE means that despite living more, people spend a substantial time of their old age with disability and illness. Preventable or potentially controllable diseases are responsible for most of the burden of disease among Brazilian older adults. Health investments are necessary to obtain longevity with quality of life in Brazil.

The burden of low back pain in Brazil: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and burden of musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions are growing around the world, and low back pain (LBP) is the most significant of the five defined MSK disorders in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. LBP has been the leading cause of non-fatal health loss for the last three decades. The objective of this study is to describe the current status and trends of the burden due to LBP in Brazil based on information drawn from the GBD 2017 study. METHODS: We estimated prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for LBP by Brazilian federative units, sex, age group, and age-standardized between 1990 and 2017 and conducted a decomposition analysis of changes in age- and sex-specific YLD rates attributable to total population growth and population ageing for the purpose of understanding the drivers of changes in LBP YLDs rates in Brazil. Furthermore, we analyzed the changes in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rankings for this disease over the period. RESULTS: The results show high prevalence and burden of LBP in Brazil. LBP prevalence increased 26.83% (95% UI 23.08 to 30.41) from 1990 to 2017. This MSK condition represents the most important cause of YLDs in Brazil, where the increase in burden is mainly related to increase in population size and ageing. The LBP age-standardized YLDs rate are similar among Brazilian federative units. LBP ranks in the top three causes of DALYs in Brazil, even though it does not contribute to mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study show LBP to be the most important cause of YLDs and the 3rd leading cause of DALYs in Brazil. The Brazilian population is ageing, and the country has been experiencing a rapid epidemiological transition, which generates an increasing number of people who need chronic care. In this scenario, more attention should be paid to the burden of non-fatal health conditions.

The burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil: a global burden of disease study 2017.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017 database permits an up-to-date evaluation of the frequency and burden of diabetes at the state level in Brazil and by type of diabetes. The objective of this report is to describe, using these updated GBD data, the current and projected future burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil, as well as its variation over time and space. METHODS: We derived all estimates using the GBD 2016 and 2017 databases to characterize disease burden related to diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil, from 1990 to 2040, using standard GBD methodologies. RESULTS: The overall estimated prevalence of diabetes in Brazil in 2017 was 4.4% (95%UI 4.0-4.9%), with 4.0% of those with diabetes being identified as having type 1 disease. While the crude prevalence of type 1 disease has remained relatively stable from 1990, type 2 prevalence has increased 30% for males and 26% for females. In 2017, approximately 3.3% of all disability-adjusted life years lost were due to diabetes and 5.9% to hyperglycemia. Diabetes prevalence and mortality were highest in the Northeast region and growing fastest in the North, Northeast, and Center-West regions. Over this period, despite a slight decrease in age-standardized incidence of type 2 diabetes, crude overall burden due to hyperglycemia has increased 19%, with population aging being a main cause for this rise. Cardiovascular diseases, responsible for 38.3% of this burden in 1990, caused only 25.9% of it in 2017, with premature mortality attributed directly to diabetes causing 31.6% of the 2017 burden. Future projections suggest that the diabetes mortality burden will increase 144% by 2040, more than twice the expected increase in crude disease burden overall (54%). By 2040, diabetes is projected to be Brazil's third leading cause of death and hyperglycemia its third leading risk factor, in terms of deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden in Brazil attributable to diabetes and hyperglycemia, already large, is predicted by GBD estimates to more than double to 2040. Strong actions by the Ministry of Health are necessary to counterbalance the major deleterious effects of population aging.

Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring and reducing premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a global priority of Agenda 2030. This study aimed to describe the mortality trends and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to NCDs between 1990 and 2017 for Brazil and to project those for 2030 as well as the risk factors (RFs) attributed deaths according to estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study. METHODS: We analyzed cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, neoplasms, and diabetes, and compared the mortality rates in 1990 and 2017 for all of Brazil and states. The study used the definition of premature mortality (30-69 years) that is used by the World Health Organization. The number of deaths, mortality rates, DALYs, and years of life lost (YLL) were used to compare 1990 and 2017. We analyzed the YLL for NCDs attributable to RFs. RESULTS: There was a reduction of 35.3% from 509.1 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (1990) to 329.6 deaths/100,000 inhabitants due to NCDs in 2017. The DALY rate decreased by 33.6%, and the YLL rate decreased by 36.0%. There were reductions in NCDs rates in all 27 states. The main RFs related to premature deaths by NCDs in 2017 among women were high body mass index (BMI), dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, and among men, dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, tobacco, and high BMI. Trends in mortality rates due to NCDs declined during the study period; however, after 2015, the curve reversed, and rates fluctuated and tended to increase. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlighted a decline in premature mortality rates from NCDs nationwide and in all states. There was a greater reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases, followed by respiratory diseases, and we observed a minor reduction for those from diabetes and neoplasms. The observed fluctuations in mortality rates over the last 3 years indicate that if no further action is taken, we may not achieve the NCD Sustainable Development Goals. These findings draw attention to the consequences of austerity measures in a socially unequal setting with great regional disparities in which the majority of the population is dependent on state social policies.

The burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to high BMI in Brazil, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and burden of disease resulting from obesity have increased worldwide. In Brazil, more than half of the population is now overweight. However, the impact of this growing risk factor on disease burden remains inexact. Using the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) results, this study sought to estimate mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to non-communicable diseases caused by high body mass index (BMI) in both sexes and across age categories. This study also aimed to describe the prevalence of overweight and obesity throughout the states of Brazil. METHODS: Age-standardized prevalence of overweight and obesity were estimated between 1990 and 2017. A comparative risk assessment was applied to estimate DALYs and deaths for non-communicable diseases and for all causes linked to high BMI. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased during the period of analysis. Overall, age-standardized prevalence of obesity in Brazil was higher in females (29.8%) than in males (24.6%) in 2017; however, since 1990, males have presented greater rise in obesity (244.1%) than females (165.7%). Increases in prevalence burden were greatest in states from the North and Northeast regions of Brazil. Overall, burden due to high BMI also increased from 1990 to 2017. In 2017, high BMI was responsible for 12.3% (8.8-16.1%) of all deaths and 8.4% (6.3-10.7%) of total DALYs lost to non-communicable diseases, up from 7.2% (4.1-10.8%), and 4.6% (2.4-6.0%) in 1990, respectively. Change due to risk exposure is the leading contributor to the growth of BMI burden in Brazil. In 2017, high BMI was responsible for 165,954 deaths and 5,095,125 DALYs. Cardiovascular disease and diabetes have proven to be the most prevalent causes of deaths, along with DALYs caused by high BMI, regardless of sex or state. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates increasing age-standardized prevalence of obesity in all Brazilian states. High BMI plays an important role in disease burdens in terms of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and all causes of mortality. Assessing levels and trends in exposures to high BMI and the resulting disease burden highlights the current priority for primary prevention and public health action initiatives focused on obesity.

Association between firearms and mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2017: a global burden of disease Brazil study.

BACKGROUND: Brazil leads the world in number of firearm deaths and ranks sixth by country in rate of firearm deaths per 100,000 people. This study aims to analyze trends in and burden of mortality by firearms, according to age and sex, for Brazil, and the association between these deaths and indicators of possession and carrying of weapons using data from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study (GBD) 2017. METHODS: We used GBD 2017 estimates of mortality due to physical violence and self-harm from firearms for Brazil to analyze the association between deaths by firearms and explanatory variables. RESULTS: Deaths from firearms increased in Brazil from 25,819 in 1990 to 48,493 in 2017. Firearm mortality rates were higher among men and in the 20-24 age group; the rate was 20 times higher than for women in the same age group. Homicide rates increased during the study period, while mortality rates for suicides and accidental deaths decreased. The group of Brazilian federation units with the highest firearm collection rate (median = 7.5) showed reductions in the rate of total violent deaths by firearms. In contrast, the group with the lowest firearm collection rate (median = 2.0) showed an increase in firearm deaths from 2000 to 2017. An increase in the rate of voluntary return of firearms was associated with a reduction in mortality rates of unintentional firearm deaths (r = -0.364, p < 0.001). An increase in socio-demographic index (SDI) was associated with a reduction in all firearm death rates (r = -0.266, p = 0.008). An increase in the composite index of firearms seized or collected was associated with a reduction in rates of deaths by firearm in the subgroup of females, children, and the elderly (r = -0.269, p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: There was a change in the trend of firearms deaths after the beginning of the collection of weapons in 2004. Federation units that collected more guns have reduced rates of violent firearm deaths.

COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Projections and the Ensuing Evolution / Pandemia de COVID-19 en Brasil: Proyecciones del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation y la Evolución Observada / Pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil: Projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a Evolução Observada

Objective: To describe IHME projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states and discuss their accuracy and implications for different scenarios. Methods: We describe and estimate the accuracy of these predictions for Brazil by comparing them with the ensuing reported cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 192,511 deaths by December 1, 2020. Continued relaxation of mandated physical isolation despite rising deaths could cause >63,000 additional deaths, while rapid increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~25,000. Several states will likely be obliged to reinstitute mandated restrictions.  Differences between IHME projections up to 6 weeks and recorded deaths ranged from -11% to 48% for Brazil. Conclusion: IHME short to medium term projections of deaths provide sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. They suggest a prolonged pandemic course, with major mortality and probable necessity of renewed restrictions.

Objetivo: Describir las proyecciones del IHME para COVID-19 en Brasil y sus estados y discutir la precisión y las implicaciones en diferentes escenarios. Métodos: Describimos y estimamos la precisión de las previsiones para Brasil, comparándolos con las muertes acumuladas observadas. Resultados: La proyección predice 192.511 muertes por la pandemia al 1 de diciembre de 2020. La relajación continua del aislamiento físico obligatorio, a pesar del continuo aumento de muertes, puede causar >63.000 muertes adicionales; el rápido aumento en el uso de mascarillas puede reducir el número a ~25.000. Es posible que varios estados deban restablecer las restricciones. Las diferencias entre las proyecciones del IHME hasta las 6 semanas y las muertes registradas oscilaron entre -11% y 48% para Brasil. Conclusiones: Las proyecciones de corto a mediano plazo del IHME brindan información válida para informar a los administradores de salud, oficiales electos y la sociedad. Sugieren un curso prolongado, alta mortalidad y probablemente nuevas restricciones.

Objetivo: Descrever as projeções do IHME para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados e discutir acurácia e implicações em diferentes cenários. Métodos: Descrevemos e estimamos a acurácia das previsões para o Brasil, comparando-as com as mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados: A projeção prevê 192.511 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1 de dezembro de 2020. O relaxamento continuado do isolamento físico obrigatório, apesar do aumento continuado dos óbitos, pode causar >63.000 mortes adicionais; o rápido aumento no uso de máscara pode reduzir o número para ~25.000. Vários estados poderão ter que reinstituir restrições. As diferenças entre as projeções do IHME até 6 semanas e as mortes registradas variaram de -11% a 48% para o Brasil. Conclusões: As projeções de curto a médio prazo do IHME fornecem informações válidas para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e a sociedade em geral. Elas sugerem curso prolongado, grande mortalidade e prováveis novas restrições.

Dietary intake quality and associated factors in one year-old children seen by primary healthcare services. / Qualidade do consumo alimentar e fatores associados em crianças de um ano de vida na Atenção Primária à Saúde.

The purpose of this paper was to analyze the food intake quality in one year-old children seen by a primary healthcare (PHC) service. This is a cross-sectional studied nested within a child oral health cohort study which collected data regarding children born in 2013 and monitored in Porto Alegre for two years. We applied a questionnaire on maternal variables and frequency of pediatric appointments, weight and height measurements, and children's food intake. To that end, a score was generated based on the points assigned according to SISVAN (meaning 'food and nutrition monitoring system,' run by the Brazilian Ministry of Health). A multivariate model was calculated using Poisson regression with robust variance. The sample comprised 249 children. We found 30.5% (76) of poor/regular dietary quality, which in the multivariate model was associated to the guardian's educational background, considering up to incomplete high school (PR = 2.14, CI95% = 1.03-4.44) and complete high school (PR = 1.70, CI95% = 0.81-3.54), as well as their failure to see a dentist (PR = 2.54, CI95% = 1.33-4.84) or having seen one before the age of four months (PR = 1.94, CI95% = 1.01-3.72). It is our conclusion that failing to see a dentist within the first year of life and lower maternal schooling negatively impact on children's dietary quality.

O objetivo foi analisar a qualidade do consumo alimentar de crianças com um ano de idade acompanhadas por um serviço de Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS). Trata-se de estudo transversal aninhado a uma coorte de saúde bucal infantil em que foram coletados dados de crianças nascidas em 2013 e acompanhadas por 2 anos, em Porto Alegre. Foi aplicado um questionário sobre variáveis maternas e frequência de consultas de puericultura, medidas antropométricas e consumo alimentar da criança. Para tal, foi gerado um escore a partir da pontuação criada conforme o SISVAN (Sistema de Vigilância Alimentar e Nutricional). Foi calculado um modelo multivariado, por meio da Regressão de Poisson com variância robusta. A amostra consistiu de 249 crianças. Encontrou-se 30,5% (76) de qualidade ruim/regular da alimentação, que no modelo multivariado esteve associada com nível educacional do responsável, sendo até ensino médio incompleto (RP = 2,14, IC95% = 1,03-4,44) e ensino médio completo (RP = 1,70, IC95% = 0,81-3,54), assim como não ter consultado com dentista (RP = 2,54, IC95% = 1,33-4,84) ou ter consultado até o quarto mês de idade (RP = 1,94, IC95% = 1,01-3,72). Conclui-se que não consultar com dentista no primeiro ano de vida e menor escolaridade materna repercutem negativamente na qualidade alimentar infantil.