Morphologic patterns observed in prostate biopsy cases with discrepant grade group and molecular risk classification.

BACKGROUND: Molecular-based risk classifier tests are increasingly being utilized by urologists and radiation oncologists to guide clinical decision making. The Decipher prostate biopsy test is a 22-gene RNA biomarker assay designed to predict likelihood of high-grade disease at radical prostatectomy and risk of metastasis and mortality. The test provides a risk category of low, intermediate, or high. We investigated histologic features of biopsies in which the Grade Group (GG) and Decipher risk category (molecular risk) were discrepant. METHODS: Our institutional urologic outcomes database was searched for men who underwent prostate biopsies with subsequent Decipher testing from 2016 to 2020. We defined discrepant GG and molecular risk as either GG1-2 with high Decipher risk category or GG ≥ 3 with low Decipher risk category. The biopsy slide on which Decipher testing was performed was re-reviewed for GG and various histologic features, including % Gleason pattern 4, types of Gleason pattern 4 and 5, other "high risk" features (e.g., complex papillary, ductal carcinoma, intraductal carcinoma [IDC]), and other unusual and often "difficult to grade" patterns (e.g., atrophic carcinoma, mucin rupture, pseudohyperplastic carcinoma, collagenous fibroplasia, foamy gland carcinoma, carcinoma with basal cell marker expression, carcinoma with prominent vacuoles, and stromal reaction). Follow-up data was also obtained from the electronic medical record. RESULTS: Of 178 men who underwent prostate biopsies and had Decipher testing performed, 41 (23%) had discrepant GG and molecular risk. Slides were available for review for 33/41 (80%). Of these 33 patients, 23 (70%) had GG1-2 (GG1 n = 5, GG2 n = 18) with high Decipher risk, and 10 (30%) had GG ≥ 3 with low Decipher risk. Of the 5 GG1 cases, one case was considered GG2 on re-review; no other high risk features were identified but each case showed at least one of the following "difficult to grade" patterns: 3 atrophic carcinoma, 1 collagenous fibroplasia, 1 carcinoma with mucin rupture, and 1 carcinoma with basal cell marker expression. Of the 18 GG2 high Decipher risk cases, 2 showed GG3 on re-review, 5 showed large cribriform and/or other high risk features, and 10 showed a "difficult to grade" pattern. Of the 10 GG ≥ 3 low Decipher risk cases, 5 had known high risk features including 2 with large cribriform, 1 with IDC, and 1 with Gleason pattern 5. CONCLUSIONS: In GG1-2 high Decipher risk cases, difficult to grade patterns were frequently seen in the absence of other known high risk morphologic features; whether these constitute true high risk cases requires further study. In the GG ≥ 3 low Decipher risk cases, aggressive histologic patterns such as large cribriform and IDC were observed in half (50%) of cases; therefore, the molecular classifier may not capture all high risk histologic patterns.

Plant-Based Diets and Disease Progression in Men With Prostate Cancer.

Importance: Plant-based diets are associated with many health and environmental benefits, including primary prevention of fatal prostate cancer, but less is known about postdiagnostic plant-based diet patterns in individuals with prostate cancer. Objective: To examine whether postdiagnostic plant-based dietary patterns are associated with risk of prostate cancer progression and prostate cancer-specific mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal observational cohort study included men with biopsy-proven nonmetastatic prostate cancer (stage ≤T3a) from the diet and lifestyle substudy within the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) enrolled at 43 urology practices across the US from 1999 to 2018. Participants completed a comprehensive diet and lifestyle questionnaire (including a validated food frequency questionnaire [FFQ]) between 2004 and 2016. Data were analyzed from August 2022 to April 2023. Exposures: Overall plant-based diet index (PDI) and healthful plant-based diet index (hPDI) scores were calculated from the FFQ. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was prostate cancer progression (recurrence, secondary treatment, bone metastases, or prostate cancer-specific mortality). The secondary outcome was prostate cancer-specific mortality. Results: Among 2062 participants (median [IQR] age, 65.0 [59.0-70.0] years), 61 (3%) identified as African American, 3 (<1%) identified as American Indian or Alaska Native, 9 (<1%) identified as Asian or Pacific Islander, 15 (1%) identified as Latino, and 1959 (95%) identified as White. Median (IQR) time from prostate cancer diagnosis to FFQ was 31.3 (15.9-62.0) months after diagnosis. During a median (IQR) follow-up of 6.5 (1.3-12.8) years after the FFQ, 190 progression events and 61 prostate cancer-specific mortality events were observed. Men scoring in the highest vs lowest quintile of PDI had a 47% lower risk of progression (HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.37-0.74; P for trend = .003). The hPDI was not associated with risk of progression overall. However, among 680 individuals with Gleason grade 7 or higher at diagnosis, the highest hPDI quintile was associated with a 55% lower risk of progression compared with the lowest hPDI quintile (HR 0.45; 95% CI, 0.25-0.81; P for trend = .01); no association was observed in individuals with Gleason grade less than 7. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of 2062 men with prostate cancer, higher intake of plant foods after prostate cancer diagnosis was associated with lower risk of cancer progression. These findings suggest nutritional assessment and counseling may be recommended to patients with prostate cancer to help establish healthy dietary practices and support well-being and overall health.

The impact of genomic biomarkers on a clinical risk prediction model for upgrading/upstaging among men with favorable-risk prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: The challenge of distinguishing indolent from aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) complicates decision-making for men considering active surveillance (AS). Genomic classifiers (GCs) may improve risk stratification by predicting end points such as upgrading or upstaging (UG/US). The aim of this study was to assess the impact of GCs on UG/US risk prediction in a clinicopathologic model. METHODS: Participants had favorable-risk PCa (cT1-2, prostate-specific antigen [PSA] ≤15 ng/mL, and Gleason grade group 1 [GG1]/low-volume GG2). A prediction model was developed for 864 men at the University of California, San Francisco, with standard clinical variables (cohort 1), and the model was validated for 2267 participants from the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) registry (cohort 2). Logistic regression was used to compute the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to develop a prediction model for UG/US at prostatectomy. A GC (Oncotype Dx Genomic Prostate Score [GPS] or Prolaris) was then assessed to improve risk prediction. RESULTS: The prediction model included biopsy GG1 versus GG2 (odds ratio [OR], 5.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.73-9.10); PSA (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01-1.20; per 1 ng/mL), percent positive cores (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.01-1.02; per 1%), prostate volume (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.99; per mL), and age (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.07; per year), with AUC 0.70 (cohort 1) and AUC 0.69 (cohort 2). GPS was associated with UG/US (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06; p < .01) and AUC 0.72, which indicates a comparable performance to the prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: GCs did not substantially improve a clinical prediction model for UG/US, a short-term and imperfect surrogate for clinically relevant disease outcomes.

Large cribriform glands (> 0.25 mm diameter) as a predictor of adverse pathology in men with Grade Group 2 prostate cancer.

AIMS: A recent outcome-based, radical prostatectomy study defined > 0.25 mm diameter to distinguish large versus small cribriform glands, with > 0.25 mm associated with worse recurrence-free survival. This study evaluates whether identification of > 0.25 mm cribriform glands in Grade Group 2 patients at biopsy is associated with adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy. METHODS AND RESULTS: Tumours containing biopsy slides for 133 patients with Grade Group 2 prostate cancer with subsequent radical prostatectomy were re-reviewed for large cribriform glands (diameter > 0.25 mm). The primary outcome was adverse pathology (Grade Groups 3-5; stage pT3a or greater, or pN1). The secondary outcome was recurrence-free survival. Cribriform pattern was present in 52 of 133 (39%) patients; of these, 16 of 52 (31%) had large cribriform glands and 36 of 52 (69%) had only small cribriform glands. Patients with large cribriform glands had significantly more adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy compared to patients with small cribriform glands and no cribriform glands (large = 11 of 16, 69%; small = 12 of 36, 33%; no cribriform = 25 of 81, 31%; χ2 P-value 0.01). On multivariate analysis, large cribriform glands were also associated with adverse pathology, independent of age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA)/PSA density at diagnosis, year of diagnosis and biopsy cores percentage positive (global P-value 0.02). Large cribriform glands were also associated with increased CAPRA-S surgical risk score (Kruskal-Wallis P-value 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Large cribriform glands using a diameter > 0.25 mm definition in Grade Group 2 patients on biopsy are associated with increased risk of adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy. The presence of large cribriform histology should be considered when offering active surveillance for those with Grade Group 2 disease.

Multi-institutional Development and External Validation of a Machine Learning Model for the Prediction of Distant Metastasis in Patients Treated by Salvage Radiotherapy for Biochemical Failure After Radical Prostatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Up to 40% of patients with prostate cancer may develop biochemical recurrence after surgery, with salvage radiation therapy (SRT) being the only curative option. In 2016, Tendulkar et al. (Contemporary update of a multi-institutional predictive nomogram for salvage radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy. J Clin Oncol 2016;34:3648-54) published a nomogram to predict distant metastasis in a cohort of patients treated with SRT with pre-SRT prostate-specific antigen (PSA) of 0.5 ng/ml after radical prostatectomy. In modern practice, SRT is delivered at lower PSA values. OBJECTIVE: To train and externally validate a machine learning model to predict the risk of distant metastasis at 5 yr in a contemporary cohort of patients receiving SRT. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We trained a machine learning model on data from 2418 patients treated with SRT at one institution, with a median PSA value of 0.27 ng/ml. External validation was done in 475 patients treated at two different institutions. Patients with cM1, pN1, or pT4 disease were excluded, as were patients with PSA >2 ng/ml or PSA 0, and patients with radiation dose <60 or ≥80 Gy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Model performance was assessed using calibration and time-dependent area under the receiver operating curve (tAUC). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Our model had better calibration and showed improved discrimination (tAUC = 0.72) compared with the Tendulkar model (tAUC = 0.60, p < 0.001). The main limitations of this study are its retrospective design and lack of validation on patients who received hormone therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The updated model can be used to provide more individualized risk assessments to patients treated with SRT at low PSA values, improving decision-making. PATIENT SUMMARY: Up to 40% of patients with prostate cancer may develop biochemical recurrence after surgery, with salvage radiation therapy as the only potentially curative option. We trained and validated a machine learning model using clinical and surgical data to predict a patient's risk of distant metastasis at 5 yr after treatment. Our model outperformed the reference tool and can improve clinical decision-making by providing more personalized risk assessment.

Transcriptomic Heterogeneity of Expansile Cribriform and Other Gleason Pattern 4 Prostate Cancer Subtypes.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancers featuring an expansile cribriform (EC) pattern are associated with worse clinical outcomes following radical prostatectomy (RP). However, studies of the genomic characteristics of Gleason pattern 4 subtypes are limited. OBJECTIVE: To explore transcriptomic characteristics and heterogeneity within Gleason pattern 4 subtypes (fused/poorly formed, glomeruloid, small cribriform, EC/intraductal carcinoma [IDC]) and the association with biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free survival. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a retrospective cohort study including 165 men with grade group 2-4 prostate cancer who underwent RP at a single academic institution (2016-2020) and Decipher testing of the RP specimen. Patients with Gleason pattern 5 were excluded. IDC and EC patterns were grouped. Median follow-up was 2.5 yr after RP for patients without BCR. OUTCOMES MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Prompted by heterogeneity within pattern 4 subtypes identified via exploratory analyses, we investigated transcriptomic consensus clusters using partitioning around medoids and hallmark gene set scores. The primary clinical outcome was BCR, defined as two consecutive prostate-specific antigen measurements >0.2 ng/ml at least 8 wk after RP, or any additional treatment. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used to determine factors associated with BCR-free survival. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: In this cohort, 99/165 patients (60%) had EC and 67 experienced BCR. Exploratory analyses and clustering demonstrated transcriptomic heterogeneity within each Gleason pattern 4 subtype. In the multivariable model controlled for pattern 4 subtype, margin status, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Post-Surgical score, and Decipher score, a newly identified steroid hormone-driven cluster (hazard ratio 2.35 95% confidence interval 1.01-5.47) was associated with worse BCR-free survival. The study is limited by intermediate follow-up, no validation cohort, and lack of accounting for intratumoral and intraprostatic heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: Transcriptomic heterogeneity was present within and across each Gleason pattern 4 subtype, demonstrating there is additional biologic diversity not captured by histologic subtypes. This heterogeneity can be used to develop novel signatures and to classify transcriptomic subtypes, which may help in refining risk stratification following RP to further guide decision-making on adjuvant and salvage treatments. PATIENT SUMMARY: We studied prostatectomy specimens and found that tumors with similar microscopic appearance can have genetic differences that may help to predict outcomes after prostatectomy for prostate cancer. Our results demonstrate that further gene expression analysis of prostate cancer subtypes may improve risk stratification after prostatectomy. Future studies are needed to develop novel gene expression signatures and validate these findings in independent sets of patients.

The Impact of Delayed Radical Prostatectomy on Recurrence Outcomes After Initial Active Surveillance: Results from a Large Institutional Cohort.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Active surveillance (AS) of prostate cancer (PCa) involves regular monitoring for disease progression. The aim is to avoid unnecessary treatment while ensuring appropriate and timely treatment for those whose disease progresses. AS has emerged as the standard of care for low-grade (Gleason grade 1, GG 1) PCa. Opponents are concerned that initial undersampling and delay of definitive management for patients with GG 2 disease may lead to adverse outcomes. We sought to determine whether the timing for definitive management of GG 2 PCa, either upfront or after initial AS, affects recurrence outcomes after radical prostatectomy (RP). METHODS: Participants were diagnosed with cT1-2N0/xM0/x, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) <20 ng/ml, and GG 1-2 PCa between 2000 and 2020 and underwent immediate RP for GG 2 or AS followed by delayed RP on upgrading to GG 2. The outcome was recurrence-free survival (RFS) after surgery, with recurrence defined as either biochemical failure (2 PSA measurements ≥0.2 ng/ml) or a second treatment. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to calculate associations between the timing for definitive RP and the risk of recurrence, adjusted for age at diagnosis, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPC), PSA density, PSA before RP, year of diagnosis, surgical margins, genomic risk score, and prostate MRI findings. KEY FINDINGS: Of the 1259 men who met the inclusion criteria, 979 underwent immediate RP after diagnosis of GG 2, 190 underwent RP within 12 mo of upgrading to GG 2 on AS, and 90 men underwent RP >12 mo after upgrading to GG 2. The 5-yr RFS rates were 81% for the immediate RP group, 80% for the delayed RP ≤12 mo, and 70% for the delayed RP >12 mo group (univariate log-rank p = 0.03). Cox multivariable regression demonstrated no difference in RFS outcomes between immediate RP for GG 2 disease and delayed RP after upgrading on AS. PPC (hazard ratio [HR] per 10% increment 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.15; p = 0.01) and PSA before RP (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.09; p < 0.01) were significantly associated with the risk of recurrence. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: PPC and PSA before RP, but not the timing of definitive surgery after upgrade to GG 2, were associated with the risk of PCa recurrence after RP on multivariable analysis. These findings support the safety of AS and delayed definitive therapy for a subset of patients with GG 2 disease. PATIENT SUMMARY: In a large group of 1259 patients with low-grade prostate cancer, we found that delaying surgical treatment after an initial period of active surveillance resulted in no differences in prostate cancer recurrence. Our results support the safety of active surveillance for low-grade prostate cancer.

Long-term Prostate Cancer-specific Mortality After Prostatectomy, Brachytherapy, External Beam Radiation Therapy, Hormonal Therapy, or Monitoring for Localized Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The optimal treatment of localized prostate cancer (PCa) remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: To compare long-term survival among men who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP), brachytherapy (BT), external beam radiation therapy (EBRT), primary androgen deprivation therapy (PADT), or monitoring (active surveillance [AS]/watchful waiting [WW]) for PCa. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This is a cohort study with long-term follow-up from the multicenter, prospective, largely community-based Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) registry. Men with biopsy-proven, clinical T1-3aN0M0, localized PCa were consecutively accrued within 6 mo of diagnosis and had clinical risk data and at least 12 mo of follow-up after diagnosis available. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: PCa risk was assessed, and multivariable analyses were performed to compare PCa-specific mortality (PCSM) and all-cause mortality by primary treatment, with extensive adjustment for age and case mix using the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score and a well-validated nomogram. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Among 11 864 men, 6227 (53%) underwent RP, 1645 (14%) received BT, 1462 (12%) received EBRT, 1510 (13%) received PADT, and 1020 (9%) were managed with AS/WW. At a median of 9.4 yr (interquartile range 5.8-13.7) after treatment, 764 men had died from PCa. After adjusting for CAPRA score, the hazard ratios for PCSM with RP as the reference were 1.57 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24-1.98; p < 0.001) for BT, 1.55 (95% CI 1.26-1.91; p < 0.001) for EBRT, 2.36 (95% CI 1.94-2.87; p < 0.001) for PADT, and 1.76 (95% CI 1.30-2.40; p < 0.001) for AS/WW. In models for long-term outcomes, PCSM differences were negligible for low-risk disease and increased progressively with risk. Limitations include the evolution of diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for PCa over time. In this nonrandomized study, the possibility of residual confounding remains salient. CONCLUSIONS: In a large, prospective cohort of men with localized PCa, after adjustment for age and comorbidity, PCSM was lower after local therapy for those with higher-risk disease, and in particular after RP. Confirmation of these results via long-term follow-up of ongoing trials is awaited. PATIENT SUMMARY: We evaluated different treatment options for localized prostate cancer in a large group of patients who were treated mostly in nonacademic medical centers. Results from nonrandomized trials should be interpret with caution, but even after careful risk adjustment, survival rates for men with higher-risk cancer appeared to be highest for patients whose first treatment was surgery rather than radiotherapy, hormones, or monitoring.

Ten-year work burden after prostate cancer treatment.

INTRODUCTION: We aim to characterize the magnitude of the work burden (weeks off from work) associated with prostate cancer (PCa) treatment over a 10-year period after PCa diagnosis and identify those at greatest risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified men diagnosed with PCa treated with radical prostatectomy, radiation therapy, or active surveillance/watchful waiting within CaPSURE. Patients self-reported work burden and SF36 general health scores via surveys before and 1,3,5, and 10 years after treatment. Using multivariate repeated measures generalized estimating equation modeling we examined the association between primary treatment with risk of any work weeks lost due to care. RESULTS: In total, 6693 men were included. The majority were White (81%, 5% Black, and 14% Other) with CAPRA low- (60%) or intermediate-risk (32%) disease and underwent surgery (62%) compared to 29% radiation and 9% active surveillance. Compared to other treatments, surgical patients were more likely to report greater than 7 days off work in the first year, with relatively less time off over time. Black men (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.54-0.77) and those undergoing radiation (vs. surgery, RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.41-0.51) were less likely to report time off from work over time. Mean baseline GH score (73 [SD 18]) was similar between race and treatment groups, and stable over time. CONCLUSIONS: The work burden of cancer care continued up to 10 years after treatment and varied across racial groups and primary treatment groups, highlighting the multifactorial nature of this issue and the call to leverage greater resources for those at greatest risk.

Long-term complications and health-related quality of life outcomes after radical prostatectomy with or without subsequent radiation treatment for prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: To report objective long-term complications and health related quality of life (HRQOL) outcomes after radical prostatectomy (RP) with and without radiation therapy (RT) for prostate cancer (CaP). METHODS: We analyzed patients diagnosed with CaP who underwent RP from the UCSF Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) registry between 1995 and 2020. Cox proportional hazards were used to assess risk of postoperative complications which included cystitis, gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity, incontinence requiring a surgical procedure, ureteral injury and urinary stricture. Repeated measures mixed models were used to assess the effects of radiation and complications on patient-reported urinary, bowel, and sexual function after surgery. RESULTS: Of 6,258 men who underwent RP, cumulative incidence of EBRT was 9.1% at 5 years after surgery. Patients who received postoperative radiation were at increased risk for onset of cystitis (HR 5.60, 95% CI 3.40-9.22, P < 0.01). Receipt of RT was not associated with other complications. In repeated measures analysis, postoperative RT was associated with worsening general health scores, adjusting for complications of incontinence, urinary stricture, GI toxicity or ureteral injury, independent of whether patients had those complications. CONCLUSIONS: RT after RP was associated with an increase in the risk of cystitis and worse general health in the long term. Other complications and HRQOL outcomes did not demonstrate differences by whether patients had RT or not. While post-operative RT is the only curative option for CaP after RP, patients and providers should be aware of the increased risks when making treatment decisions.

The Long-term Incidence and Quality of Life Outcomes Associated With Treatment-Related Toxicities of External Beam Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the long-term incidence of treatment-related toxicities and quality of life (QOL) outcomes associated with toxicity after external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) for prostate cancer. METHODS: We identified all men who had EBRT between 1994 and 2017 from Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE), a longitudinal, nationwide prostate cancer registry. CaPSURE was queried for patient-reported and International Classification of Diseases-9/10 and Current Procedural Terminology codes. The Medical Outcomes Studies Short Form 36 and the University of California, Los Angeles Prostate Cancer Index were used to provide measures of general health, sexual, urinary, and bowel function. Repeated measures mixed models were used to determine QOL change after onset of toxicity. RESULTS: From a total of 15,332, 1744 (11.4%) men had EBRT. The median follow-up was 7.9years (interquartile range [IQR] 4.3-12.7). The median time to onset of any toxicity including urinary pad usage in 265 (15.4% at 8years) men was 4.3years (IQR 1.8-8.0). The most frequent toxicity was hemorrhagic cystitis (104, 5.9% at 8years) after a median of 3.7years (1.3-7.8), gastrointestinal (48, 2.7% at 8years) after a median of 4.2years (IQR 1.3-7.8), followed by urethral stricture (47, 2.4% at 8years) after a median of 3.7years (IQR 1.9-9.1). Repeated measures mixed models found that onset of hemorrhagic cystitis was associated with change in general health over time. CONCLUSION: EBRT for prostate cancer is associated with distinct treatment-related toxicities which can occur many years after treatment and can affect QOL. These results may help men understand the long-term implications of treatment decisions.

Post-diagnostic health behaviour scores and risk of prostate cancer progression and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Individual behaviours are associated with prostate cancer (PC) progression. Behavioural scores, comprised of multiple risk factors, allow assessment of the combined impact of multiple behaviours. METHODS: We examined the association between six a priori scores and risk of PC progression and mortality among 2156 men with PC in the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) cohort: two scores developed based on the PC survivorship literature ('2021 Score [+ Diet]'); a score developed based on pre-diagnostic PC literature ('2015 Score'); and three scores based on US recommendations for cancer prevention ('WCRF/AICR Score') and survival ('ACS Score [+ Alcohol]'). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for progression and PC mortality via parametric survival models (interval censoring) and Cox models, respectively. RESULTS: Over a median (IQR) of 6.4 (1.3, 13.7) years, we observed 192 progression and 73 PC mortality events. Higher (i.e., healthier) 2021 Score + Diet and WCRF/AICR Scores were inversely associated with risk of PC progression (2021 + Diet: HRcontinuous = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63-0.90. WCRF/AICR: HRcontinuous = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.67-1.02) and mortality (2021 + Diet: HRcontinuous = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.45-0.93. WCRF/AICR: HRcontinuous = 0.71; 95% CI: 0.57-0.89). The ACS Score + Alcohol was only associated with progression (HRcontinuous = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.81-0.98) while the 2021 Score was only associated with PC mortality (HRcontinuous = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.45-0.85). The 2015 was not associated with PC progression or mortality. CONCLUSION: Findings strengthen the evidence that behavioural modifications following a prostate cancer diagnosis may improve clinical outcomes.

PSA density does not improve predictive accuracy of the UCSF-CAPRA score.

INTRODUCTION: The University of California, San Francisco Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score is a validated tool using factors at diagnosis to predict prostate cancer outcomes after radical prostatectomy (RP). This study evaluates whether substitution of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) density for serum PSA improves predictive performance of the clinical CAPRA model. METHODS: Participants were diagnosed in 2000-2019 with stage T1/T2 cancer, underwent RP, with at least a 6-month follow-up. We computed standard CAPRA score using diagnostic age, Gleason grade, percent positive cores, clinical T stage, and serum PSA, and an alternate score using similar variables but substituting PSA density for PSA. We reported CAPRA categories as low (0-2), intermediate (3-5), and high (6-10) risk. Recurrence was defined as two consecutive PSA ≥ 0.2 ng/mL or receipt of salvage treatment. Life table and Kaplan-Meier analysis evaluated recurrence-free survival after prostatectomy. Cox proportional hazards regression models tested associations of standard or alternate CAPRA variables with recurrence risk. Additional models tested associations between standard or alternate CAPRA score with recurrence risk. Cox log-likelihood ratio test (-2 LOG L) assessed model accuracy. RESULTS: A total of 2880 patients had median age 62 years, GG1 30% and GG2 31%, median PSA 6.5, and median PSA density 0.19. Median postoperative follow-up was 45 months. Alternate CAPRA model was associated with shifts in risk scores, with 16% of patients increasing and 7% decreasing (p < 0.01). Recurrence-free survival after RP was 75% at 5 years and 62% at 10 years. Both CAPRA component models were associated with recurrence risk after RP on Cox regression. Covariate fit statistics showed better fit for standard CAPRA model versus alternate (p < 0.01). Standard (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.61) and alternate (HR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.44-1.55) CAPRA scores were associated with recurrence risk, with better fit for standard model (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In a 2880 patient cohort followed for median 45 months after RP, alternate CAPRA model using PSA density was associated with higher biochemical recurrence (BCR) risk, but performed inferior to standard CAPRA at predicting BCR. While PSA density is an established prognostic variable in prediagnostic settings and sub-stratifying low-risk disease, it does not improve BCR model predictive accuracy when applied across a range of cancer risk.

Stability of Prognostic Estimation Using the CAPRA Score Incorporating Imaging-based vs Physical Exam-based Staging.

PURPOSE: Although official T-staging criteria for prostate cancer are based on digital rectal examination findings, providers increasingly rely on transrectal US and MRI to define pragmatic clinical stage to guide management. We assessed the impact of incorporating imaging findings into T-staging on performance of a well-validated prognostic instrument. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients who underwent radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer diagnosed between 2000 and 2019 with stage ≤cT3a on both digital rectal examination and imaging (transrectal US/MRI) were included. The University of California, San Francisco CAPRA (Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment) score was computed 2 ways: (1) incorporating digital rectal examination-based T stage and (2) incorporating imaging-based T stage. We assessed for risk changes across the 2 methods and associations of CAPRA (by both methods) with biochemical recurrence, using unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Model discrimination and net benefit were assessed with time-dependent area under the curve and decision curve analysis, respectively. RESULTS: Of 2,222 men included, 377 (17%) increased in CAPRA score with imaging-based staging (P < .01). Digital rectal examination-based (HR 1.54; 95% CI 1.48-1.61) and imaging-based (HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.46-1.58) CAPRA scores were comparably accurate for predicting recurrence with similar discrimination and decision curve analyses. On multivariable Cox regression, positive digital rectal examination at diagnosis (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.09-1.53) and imaging-based clinical T3/4 disease (HR 1.72; 95% CI 1.43-2.07) were independently associated with biochemical recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: The CAPRA score remains accurate whether determined using imaging-based staging or digital rectal examination-based staging, with relatively minor discrepancies and similar associations with biochemical recurrence. Staging information from either modality can be used in the CAPRA score calculation and still reliably predict risk of biochemical recurrence.

Limited Relevance of the Very Low Risk Prostate Cancer Classification in the Modern Era: Results from a Large Institutional Active Surveillance Cohort.

Although the American Urological Association recently dropped the very low-risk (VLR) subcategory for low-risk prostate cancer (PCa) and the European Association of Urology does not substratify low-risk PCa, the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines still maintain this stratum, which is based on the number of positive biopsy cores, tumor extent in each core, and prostate-specific antigen density. This subdivision may be less applicable in the modern era in which imaging-targeted prostate biopsies are common practice. In our large institutional active surveillance cohort of patients diagnosed from 2000 to 2020 (n = 1276), the number of patients meeting NCCN VLR criteria decreased significantly in recent years, with no patient meeting VLR criteria after 2018. By contrast, the multivariable Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score effectively substratified patients over the same period and was predictive of upgrading on repeat biopsy to Gleason grade group ≥2 on multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling (hazard ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.39; p < 0.01), independent of age, genomic test results, and magnetic resonance imaging findings. These findings suggest that the NCCN VLR criteria are less applicable in the targeted biopsy era, and that the CAPRA score or similar instruments are better contemporary risk stratification tools for men on active surveillance. PATIENT SUMMARY: We investigated whether the National Comprehensive Cancer Network classification of very low risk (VLR) for prostate cancer is relevant in the modern era. We found that in a large group of patients on active surveillance, no man diagnosed after 2018 satisfied the VLR criteria. However, the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score discriminated patients by cancer risk at diagnosis and was predictive of outcomes on active surveillance, and thus may be a more relevant classification scheme in the modern era.

Prostate-Specific Antigen Level at the Time of Salvage Therapy After Radical Prostatectomy for Prostate Cancer and the Risk of Death.

PURPOSE: Both the performance characteristics of prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography and insurance approval improves with increasing prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level causing some physicians to delay post-radical prostatectomy salvage radiation therapy (sRT) after PSA failure. Yet, it is unknown for men with at most one high-risk factor (ie, pT3/4 or prostatectomy [p] Gleason score 8-10) whether a PSA level exists above which initiating sRT is associated with increased all-cause mortality (ACM)-risk and was investigated. METHODS: Using a multinational database of 25,551 patients with pT2-4N0 or NXM0 prostate cancer, multivariable Cox regression analysis evaluated whether an association with a significant increase in ACM-risk existed when sRT was delivered above a prespecified PSA level beginning at 0.10 ng/mL and in 0.05 increments up to 0.50 ng/mL versus at or below that level. The model was adjusted for age at and year of radical prostatectomy, established prostate cancer prognostic factors, institution, and the time-dependent use of androgen deprivation therapy. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 6.00 years, patients who received sRT at a PSA level >0.25 ng/mL had a significantly higher ACM-risk (AHR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.00; P = .008) compared with men who received sRT when the PSA was ≤0.25 mg/mL. This elevated ACM-risk remained significant for all PSA cutpoints up to 0.50 ng/mL but was not significant at PSA cutpoint values below 0.25 ng/mL. CONCLUSION: Among patients with at most one high-risk factor, initiating sRT above a PSA level of 0.25 ng/mL was associated with increased ACM-risk.

Development and External Validation of a Machine Learning Model for Prediction of Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients with Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) is the gold standard for diagnosis of lymph node involvement (LNI) in patients with prostate cancer. The Roach formula, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) calculator, and Briganti 2012 nomogram are elegant and simple traditional tools used to estimate the risk of LNI and select patients for PLND. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether machine learning (ML) can improve patient selection and outperform currently available tools for predicting LNI using similar readily available clinicopathologic variables. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective data for patients treated with surgery and PLND between 1990 and 2020 in two academic institutions were used. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We trained three models (two logistic regression models and one gradient-boosted trees-based model [XGBoost]) on data provided from one institution (n = 20267) with age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, clinical T stage, percentage positive cores, and Gleason scores as inputs. We externally validated these models using data from another institution (n = 1322) and compared their performance to that of the traditional models using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: LNI was present in 2563 patients (11.9%) overall, and in 119 patients (9%) in the validation data set. XGBoost had the best performance among all the models. On external validation, its AUC outperformed that of the Roach formula by 0.08 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.042-0.12), the MSKCC nomogram by 0.05 (95% CI 0.016-0.070), and the Briganti nomogram by 0.03 (95% CI 0.0092-0.051; all p < 0.05). It also had better calibration and clinical utility in terms of net benefit on DCA across relevant clinical thresholds. The main limitation of the study is its retrospective design. CONCLUSIONS: Taking all measures of performance together, ML using standard clinicopathologic variables outperforms traditional tools in predicting LNI. PATIENT SUMMARY: Determining the risk of cancer spread to the lymph nodes in patients with prostate cancer allows surgeons to perform lymph node dissection only in patients who need it and avoid the side effects of the procedure in those who do not. In this study, we used machine learning to develop a new calculator to predict the risk of lymph node involvement that outperformed traditional tools currently used by oncologists.

The natural history of a delayed detectable PSA after radical prostatectomy.

INTRODUCTION: Men with a detectable PSA after radical prostatectomy (RP) are often offered salvage therapy while those with an undetectable PSA are monitored. We aim to better characterize the natural history of men with an initially undetectable PSA who subsequently developed a detectable PSA > 6 months after RP. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of men who underwent RP for clinically localized prostate cancer at the University of California, San Francisco from 2000 to 2022. The primary outcome was biochemical recurrence, defined as 2 consecutive PSA > = 0.03 ng/mL starting 6 months after surgery. Secondary outcomes were salvage treatment, post-salvage treatment, metastasis free survival (MFS), prostate cancer specific mortality (PCSM), and all-cause mortality (ACM). This cohort was compared to a previously described cohort who had an immediately detectable post-operative PSA. RESULTS: From our cohort of 3348 patients, we identified 2868 men who had an undetectable post-op PSA. Subsequently, 642 men had a delayed detectable PSA at a median of 25 months (IQR 15, 43) with median follow-up of 72 months after RP. PSA at time of failure was <0.10 ng/mL for 65.7% of men. Of those with a delayed detectable PSA, 46% underwent salvage treatment within 10 years after RP at a median PSA of 0.08 ng/mL (IQR 0.05, 0.14). High CAPRA-S score (HR 1.09, CI 1.02-1.17, p = 0.02) and PSA doubling time (PSA-DT) of <6 months (HR 7.58, CI 5.42-10.6, p < 0.01) were associated with receiving salvage treatment. After salvage treatment, 62% of men had recurrent PSA failure within 10 years. Overall, MFS was 92%, PCSM 3%, and ACM 6% at 10 years. For those who received tertiary treatment for recurrent PSA failure, MFS was 54%, PCSM 23% and ACM 23% at 10 years' time. CONCLUSIONS: Men who develop a detectable PSA > 6 months post-operatively may have excellent long-term outcomes, even in the absence of salvage therapy.

Prostate cancer disparities among American Indians and Alaskan Natives in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Americans Indians and Alaska Natives face disparities in cancer care with lower rates of screening, limited treatment access, and worse survival. Prostate cancer treatment access and patterns of care remain unknown. METHODS: We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data to compare incidence, primary treatment, and cancer-specific mortality across American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian and Pacific Islander, Black, and White patients. Baseline characteristics included prostate-specific antigen (PSA), Gleason score (GS), tumor stage, 9-level Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment risk score, county characteristics, and health-care provider density. Primary outcomes were first definitive treatment and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). RESULTS: American Indian and Alaska Native patients were more frequently diagnosed with higher PSA, GS greater than or equal or 8, stage greater than or equal to cT3, high-risk disease overall (Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment risk score ≥ 6), and metastases at diagnosis than any other group. Adjusting for age, PSA, GS, and clinical stage, American Indian or Alaska Native patients with localized prostate cancer were more likely to undergo external beam radiation than radical prostatectomy and had the highest rates of no documented treatment. Five-year PCSM was higher among American Indian and Alaska Natives than any other racial group. However, after multivariable adjustment accounting for clinical and pathologic factors, county-level demographics, and provider density, American Indian and Alaska Native patient PCSM hazards were no different than those of White patients. CONCLUSIONS: American Indian or Alaska Native patients have more advanced prostate cancer, lower rates of definitive treatment, higher mortality, and reside in areas of less specialty care. Disparities in access appear to account for excess risks of PCSM. Focused health policy interventions are needed to address these disparities.

Gleason Grade 1 Prostate Cancer Volume at Biopsy Is Associated With Upgrading but Not Adverse Pathology or Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy: Results From a Large Institutional Cohort.

PURPOSE: Clinical guidelines suggest that for low-grade, clinically localized prostate cancer, patients with higher volume of disease at diagnosis may benefit from definitive therapy, although the data remain unclear. Our objective was to determine associations between low-grade prostate cancer volume and outcomes in men managed with primary radical prostatectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Men with cT1-2N0/xM0/x prostate cancer, prostate specific antigen at diagnosis <10 ng/mL, and Gleason grade group 1 pathology on diagnostic biopsy managed with primary radical prostatectomy were included. Outcomes were pathological upgrade at radical prostatectomy (≥Gleason grade group 2), University of California, San Francisco adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy (≥Gleason grade group 3, pT3/4, or pN1), alternate adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy (≥Gleason grade group 3, ≥pT3b, or pN1), and recurrence (biochemical failure with 2 prostate specific antigen ≥0.2 ng/mL or salvage treatment). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate associations between percentage of positive cores and risk of upgrade and adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate associations between percentage of positive cores and hazard of recurrence after radical prostatectomy. RESULTS: A total of 1,029 men met inclusion criteria. Multivariable logistic regression models demonstrated significant associations between percentage of positive cores and pathological upgrade (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.1-1.57, P < .01), but not University of California, San Francisco adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy (P = .84); percentage of positive cores was negatively associated with alternate adverse pathology (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.48-0.93, P = .02). Multivariable Cox regression models demonstrated no association between percentage of positive cores and hazard of recurrence after radical prostatectomy (P = .11). CONCLUSIONS: In men with Gleason grade group 1 prostate cancer, tumor volume may be associated with upgrading at radical prostatectomy, but not more clinically significant outcomes of adverse pathology or recurrence.