A Retrospective Cohort Study of Clinical Factors Associated with Transitions of Care among COVID-19 Patients.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an international health crisis. In this article, we report on patient characteristics associated with care transitions of: 1) hospital admission from the emergency department (ED) and 2) escalation to the intensive care unit (ICU). Analysis of data from the electronic medical record (EMR) was performed for patients with COVID-19 seen in the ED of a large Western U.S. Health System from April to August of 2020, totaling 10,079 encounters. Of these, 5172 resulted in admission as an inpatient within 72 h. Inpatient encounters (n = 6079) were also considered for patients with positive COVID-19 test results, of which 970 resulted in a transfer to the ICU or in-hospital mortality. Laboratory results, vital signs, symptoms, and comorbidities were investigated for each of these care transitions. Different top risk factors were found, but two factors common to hospital admission and ICU transfer were respiratory rate and the need for oxygen support. Comorbidities common to both settings were cerebrovascular disease and congestive heart failure. Regarding laboratory results, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was associated with transitions to higher levels of care, along with the ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT).

Optimizing the efficiency of tuberculosis active case-finding in health facilities and communities.

SETTING: Efficient tuberculosis (TB) active case-finding strategies are important in settings with high TB burdens and limited resources, such as those in western Kenya.OBJECTIVE: To guide efforts to optimize screening efficiency, we identified the predictors of TB among people screened in health facilities and communities.DESIGN: During February 2015-June 2016, adults aged ≥15 years reporting any TB symptom were identified in health facilities and community mobile screening units, and evaluated for TB. We assessed the predictors of TB using a modified Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations to account for clustering according to screening site.RESULTS: TB was diagnosed in 484 (20.3%) of 2394 symptomatic adults in health facilities and 39 (3.4%) of 1424 in communities. In health facilities, >10% of symptomatic adults in all demographic groups had TB, and no predictors were associated with a ≥2-fold increased risk. In communities, the independent predictors of TB were male sex (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 4.26, 95%CI 2.43-7.45), HIV infection (aPR 2.37, 95%CI 1.18-4.77), and household TB contact in the last 2 years (aPR 2.84, 95%CI 1.62-4.96).CONCLUSION: Our findings support the notion of general TB screening in health facilities and evaluation of the adult household contacts of TB patients.

Lessons learned from community-based tuberculosis case-finding in western Kenya.

SETTING: Although Kenya has a high burden of tuberculosis (TB), only 46% of cases were diagnosed in 2016. OBJECTIVE: To identify strategies for increasing attendance at community-based mobile screening units. DESIGN: We analysed operational data from a cluster-randomised trial, which included community-based mobile screening implemented during February 2015-April 2016. Community health volunteers (CHVs) recruited individuals with symptoms from the community, who were offered testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and sputum collection for Xpert® MTB/RIF testing. We compared attendance across different mobile unit sites using Wilcoxon rank-sum test. RESULTS: A total of 1424 adults with symptoms were screened at 25 mobile unit sites. The median total attendance among sites was 54 (range 6-134, interquartile range [IQR] 24-84). The median yields of TB diagnoses and new HIV diagnoses were respectively 2.4% (range 0.0-16.7, IQR 0.0-5.3) and 2.5% (range 0.0-33.3, IQR 1.2-4.2). Attendance at urban sites was variable; attendance at rural sites where CHVs were paid a daily minimum wage was significantly higher than at rural sites where CHVs were paid a nominal monthly stipend (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Mobile units were most effective and efficient when implemented as a single event with community health workers who are paid a daily wage.

Spatial epidemiology of tuberculosis in the high-burden counties of Kisumu and Siaya, Western Kenya, 2012-2015.

BACKGROUND: Effective management of tuberculosis (TB) and reduction of TB incidence relies on knowledge of where, when and to what degree the disease is present. METHODS: In a retrospective cross-sectional study, we analysed the spatial distribution of notified TB incidence from 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2015 in Siaya and Kisumu Counties, Western Kenya. TB data were obtained from the Division of Leprosy, Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Nairobi, Kenya, as part of an approved TB case detection study. Cases were linked to their corresponding geographic location using physical address identifiers. Spatial analysis techniques were used to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of TB. Assessment of spatial clustering was carried out following Moran's I method of spatial autocorrelation and the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. RESULTS: The notified TB incidence varied from 638.0 to 121.4 per 100 000 at the small area level. Spatial analysis identified 16 distinct geographic regions with high TB incidence clustering (GiZScore 2.58, P < 0.01). There was a positive correlation between population density and TB incidence that was statistically significant (rs = 0.5739, P = 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The present study presents an opportunity for targeted interventions in the identified subepidemics to supplement measures aimed at the general population.

A large Great Britain-wide outbreak of STEC O157 phage type 8 linked to handling of raw leeks and potatoes.

Between December 2010 and July 2011, 252 cases of STEC O157 PT8 stx1 + 2 infection were reported in England, Scotland and Wales. This was the largest outbreak of STEC reported in England and the second largest in the UK to date. Eighty cases were hospitalized, with two cases of haemolytic uraemic syndrome and one death reported. Routine investigative data were used to generate a hypothesis but the subsequent case-control study was inconclusive. A second, more detailed, hypothesis generation exercise identified consumption or handling of vegetables as a potential mode of transmission. A second case-control study demonstrated that cases were more likely than controls to live in households whose members handled or prepared leeks bought unwrapped [odds ratio (OR) 40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·08-769·4], and potatoes bought in sacks (OR 13·13, 95% CI 1·19-145·3). This appears to be the first outbreak of STEC O157 infection linked to the handling of leeks.

A multi-country outbreak of Salmonella Newport gastroenteritis in Europe associated with watermelon from Brazil, confirmed by whole genome sequencing: October 2011 to January 2012.

In November 2011, the presence of Salmonella Newport in a ready-to-eat watermelon slice was confirmed as part of a local food survey in England. In late December 2011, cases of S. Newport were reported in England, Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Ireland and Germany. During the outbreak, 63 confirmed cases of S. Newport were reported across all six countries with isolates indistinguishable by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis from the watermelon isolate.A subset of outbreak isolates were whole-genome sequenced and were identical to, or one single nucleotide polymorphism different from the watermelon isolate.In total, 46 confirmed cases were interviewed of which 27 reported watermelon consumption. Further investigations confirmed the outbreak was linked to the consumption of watermelon imported from Brazil.Although numerous Salmonella outbreaks associated with melons have been reported in the United States and elsewhere, this is the first of its kind in Europe.Expansion of the melon import market from Brazil represents a potential threat for future outbreaks. Whole genome sequencing is rapidly becoming more accessible and can provide a compelling level of evidence of linkage between human cases and sources of infection,to support public health interventions in global food markets.

Identifying the seasonal origins of human campylobacteriosis.

Human campylobacteriosis exhibits a distinctive seasonality in temperate regions. This paper aims to identify the origins of this seasonality. Clinical isolates [typed by multi-locus sequence typing (MLST)] and epidemiological data were collected from Scotland. Young rural children were found to have an increased burden of disease in the late spring due to strains of non-chicken origin (e.g. ruminant and wild bird strains from environmental sources). In contrast the adult population had an extended summer peak associated with chicken strains. Travel abroad and UK mainland travel were associated with up to 17% and 18% of cases, respectively. International strains were associated with chicken, had a higher diversity than indigenous strains and a different spectrum of MLST types representative of these countries. Integrating empirical epidemiology and molecular subtyping can successfully elucidate the seasonal components of human campylobacteriosis. The findings will enable public health officials to focus strategies to reduce the disease burden.

An outbreak of food-borne botulism in Scotland, United Kingdom, November 2011.

An investigation is currently underway to explain an outbreak of food-borne botulism in Scotland. Three children in the same family were confirmed as having botulism following consumption of a meal made with a jar of korma sauce. Residual sauce from the jar, the jar lid and a remnant of the meal, all tested positive for Clostridium botulinum type A toxin. The children are recovering, although two remain ventilated and in intensive care unit.

Salmonella enterica serovar Agona European outbreak associated with a food company.

We investigated an international outbreak of Salmonella Agona with a distinct PFGE pattern associated with an Irish Food company (company X) producing pre-cooked meat products sold in various food outlet chains in Europe. The outbreak was first detected in Ireland. We undertook national and international case-finding, food traceback and microbiological investigation of human, food and environmental samples. We undertook a matched case-control study on Irish cases. In total, 163 cases in seven European countries were laboratory-confirmed. Consumption of food from food outlet chains supplied by company X was significantly associated with being a confirmed case (mOR 18·3, 95% CI 2·2-149·2) in the case-control study. The outbreak strain was isolated from the company's pre-cooked meat products and production premises. Sufficient evidence was gathered to infer the vehicles of infection and sources of the outbreak and to justify the control measures taken, which were plant closure and food recall.

A foodborne outbreak of Salmonella Bareilly in the United Kingdom, 2010.

We report the preliminary findings of the investigation of an outbreak of foodborne Salmonella Bareilly. Between August and November 2010, there were 231 laboratory-confirmed reports of S. Bareilly in the United Kingdom. A case­control study showed that consumption of bean sprouts was significantly associated with illness. The investigation concluded that raising public awareness to ensure the correct preparation of raw bean sprouts during cooking was the principal means of preventing further cases.

Putative household outbreaks of campylobacteriosis typically comprise single MLST genotypes.

During a 15-month period in Scotland a small but important number of human Campylobacter cases (3·2%) arose from 91 putative household outbreaks. Of the 26 outbreaks with known strain composition, 89% were composed of the same MLST which supports the potential use of MLST in public health epidemiology. The number of cases associated with household outbreaks is much larger than general outbreaks and there is some evidence to indicate that there may be secondary transmission, although this is relatively rare.

The use of a new virtual cohort study design to investigate an outbreak of E. coli O157 linked to a supermarket delicatessen.

In outbreaks of foodborne disease associated with retail outlets, the outlet often closes as a precaution before the specific food vehicle has been identified. Suspect food vehicles may be named as part of general control measures. A conventional case-control study cannot be performed because both cases and potential controls are likely to be aware of the hypothesis and therefore potentially biased. Modern sales recording systems in many food retail outlets may provide a basis for constructing a virtual cohort and allow a statistical inference to be made about various possible vehicles of infection. In 2007, an outbreak of E. coli O157 infection in Paisley, Scotland, was linked to cooked meat from a supermarket delicatessen using descriptive epidemiology. Construction of a virtual cohort allowed a relative risk and confidence interval to be estimated which supported the hypothesis of cooked beef topside being the vehicle of infection. This novel method could be valuable in the investigation of future outbreaks.

Temperature-dependent transmission of rotavirus in Great Britain and The Netherlands.

In Europe, rotavirus gastroenteritis peaks in late winter or early spring suggesting a role for weather factors in transmission of the virus. In this study, multivariate regression models adapted for time-series data were used to investigate effects of temperature, humidity and rainfall on reported rotavirus infections and the infection-rate parameter, a derived measure of infection transmission that takes into account population immunity, in England, Wales, Scotland and The Netherlands. Delayed effects of weather were investigated by introducing lagged weather terms into the model. Meta-regression was used to pool together country-specific estimates. There was a 13 per cent (95% confidence interval (CI), 11-15%) decrease in reported infections per 1 degrees C increase in temperature above a threshold of 5 degrees C and a 4 per cent (95% CI, 3-5%) decrease in the infection-rate parameter per 1 degrees C increase in temperature across the whole temperature range. The effect of temperature was immediate for the infection-rate parameter but delayed by up to four weeks for reported infections. There was no overall effect of humidity or rainfall. There is a direct and simple relationship between cold weather and rotavirus transmission in Great Britain and The Netherlands. The more complex and delayed temperature effect on disease incidence is likely to be mediated through the effects of weather on transmission.

Campylobacter immunity and coinfection following a large outbreak in a farming community.

An outbreak of campylobacteriosis affected approximately one-half of 165 people attending an annual farmers' dance in Montrose, Scotland, in November 2005. Epidemiological investigations, including a cohort study (n = 164), identified chicken liver paté as the most likely vehicle of infection. Paté preparation involved deliberate undercooking of chicken livers by flash-frying, followed by mechanical homogenization. Typing of 32 Campylobacter strains (isolated from submitted stools) by multilocus sequence typing identified four distinct clades of Campylobacter jejuni. There was good agreement when isolates were typed by Penner serotyping, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, and flaA short variable region sequencing but poorer agreement with phage and antibiotic susceptibility testing. At least three attendees were coinfected with two Campylobacter strains each. The outbreak was probably due to several livers contributing Campylobacter strains that survived undercooking and were dispersed throughout the paté. The study highlights improper culinary procedures as a potential human health risk and provides a striking counterexample to the "dominant outbreak strain" view of point source outbreaks of food-borne infections. It also demonstrates that previous exposure to biologically plausible sources of Campylobacter may confer protection against subsequent infection.

A continuous common-source outbreak of campylobacteriosis associated with changes to the preparation of chicken liver pâté.

In December 2006 an outbreak of Campylobacter infection occurred in Forth Valley, Scotland, affecting 48 people over a 3-week period. All cases dined at restaurant A. We conducted a cohort study in a party of 30 who ate lunch at restaurant A on 21 December to identify the vehicle of infection. Of 29 respondents, the attack rate in those who ate chicken liver pâté was 86% (6/7) compared to 0% (0/22) for those who did not. Between 1 December and 1.30 p.m. on 21 December the restaurant had used a different method of cooking the pâté. No cases reported dining at the restaurant after this time. The outbreak's duration suggested a continuous source. This is the first continuous source outbreak of Campylobacter documented in Scotland. Chicken liver pâté was the most likely vehicle of infection. This outbreak illustrates the hazards associated with undercooking Campylobacter-contaminated food.

Demographic determinants for Campylobacter infection in England and Wales: implications for future epidemiological studies.

Despite a significant public health burden the epidemiology of human Campylobacter infection remains blurred. The identification of demographic determinants for Campylobacter infection is therefore essential for identifying potential areas for intervention. Demographic data from an active, population-based sentinel surveillance system for Campylobacter infection (from 2000 until 2003, n=15 907) were compared with appropriate denominator data from the 2001 United Kingdom Census. Incidence was higher in males from birth until the late teens and in females from 20 to 36 years. Age- and gender-specific differences in Campylobacter incidence were observed in different ethnic and socioeconomic groups and hence are all major drivers for Campylobacter infection. Epidemiological studies on Campylobacter infection need to take these factors into consideration during design and analysis. The collation of detailed epidemiological data and its comparison with appropriate denominator data provides a valuable epidemiological tool for studying infection.