Evaluating Single-Spacecraft Observations of Planetary Magnetotails With Simple Monte Carlo Simulations: 1. Spatial Distributions of the Neutral Line.

A simple Monte Carlo model is presented that considers the effects of spacecraft orbital sampling on the inferred distribution of magnetic flux ropes, generated through magnetic reconnection in the magnetotail current sheet. When generalized, the model allows the determination of the number of orbits required to constrain the underlying population of structures: It is able to quantify this as a function of the physical parameters of the structures (e.g., azimuthal extent and probability of generation). The model is shown adapted to the Hermean magnetotail, where the outputs are compared to the results of a recent survey. This comparison suggests that the center of Mercury's neutral line is located dawnward of midnight by 0 . 3 7 - 1 . 02 + 1 . 21 R M and that the flux ropes are most likely to be wide azimuthally (∼50% of the width of the Hermean tail). The downtail location of the neutral line is not self-consistent or in agreement with previous (independent) studies unless dissipation terms are included planetward of the reconnection site; potential physical explanations are discussed. In the future the model could be adapted to other environments, for example, the dayside magnetopause or other planetary magnetotails.

Evaluating Single Spacecraft Observations of Planetary Magnetotails With Simple Monte Carlo Simulations: 2. Magnetic Flux Rope Signature Selection Effects.

A Monte Carlo method of investigating the effects of placing selection criteria on the magnetic signature of in situ encounters with flux ropes is presented. The technique is applied to two recent flux rope surveys of MESSENGER data within the Hermean magnetotail. It is found that the different criteria placed upon the signatures will preferentially identify slightly different subsets of the underlying population. Quantifying the selection biases first allows the distributions of flux rope parameters to be corrected, allowing a more accurate estimation of the intrinsic distributions. This is shown with regard to the distribution of flux rope radii observed. When accounting for the selection criteria, the mean radius of Hermean magnetotail quasi-force-free flux ropes is found to be 58 9 - 269 + 273  km. Second, it is possible to weight the known identifications in order to determine a rate of recurrence that accounts for the presence of the structures that will not be identified. In the case of the Hermean magnetotail, the average rate of quasi-force-free flux ropes is found to 0.12 min-1 when selection effects are accounted for (up from 0.05 min-1 previously inferred from observations).

What effect do substorms have on the content of the radiation belts?

Substorms are fundamental and dynamic processes in the magnetosphere, converting captured solar wind magnetic energy into plasma energy. These substorms have been suggested to be a key driver of energetic electron enhancements in the outer radiation belts. Substorms inject a keV "seed" population into the inner magnetosphere which is subsequently energized through wave-particle interactions up to relativistic energies; however, the extent to which substorms enhance the radiation belts, either directly or indirectly, has never before been quantified. In this study, we examine increases and decreases in the total radiation belt electron content (TRBEC) following substorms and geomagnetically quiet intervals. Our results show that the radiation belts are inherently lossy, shown by a negative median change in TRBEC at all intervals following substorms and quiet intervals. However, there are up to 3 times as many increases in TRBEC following substorm intervals. There is a lag of 1-3 days between the substorm or quiet intervals and their greatest effect on radiation belt content, shown in the difference between the occurrence of increases and losses in TRBEC following substorms and quiet intervals, the mean change in TRBEC following substorms or quiet intervals, and the cross correlation between SuperMAG AL (SML) and TRBEC. However, there is a statistically significant effect on the occurrence of increases and decreases in TRBEC up to a lag of 6 days. Increases in radiation belt content show a significant correlation with SML and SYM-H, but decreases in the radiation belt show no apparent link with magnetospheric activity levels.

Increases in plasma sheet temperature with solar wind driving during substorm growth phases.

During substorm growth phases, magnetic reconnection at the magnetopause extracts ∼1015 J from the solar wind which is then stored in the magnetotail lobes. Plasma sheet pressure increases to balance magnetic flux density increases in the lobes. Here we examine plasma sheet pressure, density, and temperature during substorm growth phases using 9 years of Cluster data (>316,000 data points). We show that plasma sheet pressure and temperature are higher during growth phases with higher solar wind driving, whereas the density is approximately constant. We also show a weak correlation between plasma sheet temperature before onset and the minimum SuperMAG AL (SML) auroral index in the subsequent substorm. We discuss how energization of the plasma sheet before onset may result from thermodynamically adiabatic processes; how hotter plasma sheets may result in magnetotail instabilities, and how this relates to the onset and size of the subsequent substorm expansion phase.