Time-critical social mobilization.

The World Wide Web is commonly seen as a platform that can harness the collective abilities of large numbers of people to accomplish tasks with unprecedented speed, accuracy, and scale. To explore the Web's ability for social mobilization, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) held the DARPA Network Challenge, in which competing teams were asked to locate 10 red weather balloons placed at locations around the continental United States. Using a recursive incentive mechanism that both spread information about the task and incentivized individuals to act, our team was able to find all 10 balloons in less than 9 hours, thus winning the Challenge. We analyzed the theoretical and practical properties of this mechanism and compared it with other approaches.

Power law signature of media exposure in human response waiting time distributions.

We study the humanitarian response to the destruction brought by the tsunami generated by the Sumatra earthquake of December 26, 2004, as measured by donations, and find that it decays in time as a power law ∼1/tα with α=2.5 ± 0.1 . This behavior is suggested to be the rare outcome of a priority queuing process in which individuals execute tasks at a rate slightly faster than the rate at which new tasks arise. We believe this to be an empirical evidence documenting the recently predicted [G. Grinstein and R. Linsker, Phys. Rev. E 77, 012101 (2008)] regime, and provide additional independent evidence that suggests that this "highly attentive regime" arises as a result of the intense focus placed on this donation "task" by the media.

Effect of social group dynamics on contagion.

Despite the many works on contagion phenomena in both well-mixed systems and heterogeneous networks, there is still a lack of understanding of the intermediate regime where social group structures evolve on a similar time scale to individual-level transmission. We address this question by considering the process of transmission through a model population comprising social groups which follow simple dynamical rules for growth and breakup. Despite the simplicity of our model, the profiles produced bear a striking resemblance to a wide variety of real-world examples--in particular, empirical data that we have obtained for social (i.e., YouTube), financial (i.e., currency markets), and biological (i.e., colds in schools) systems. The observation of multiple resurgent peaks and abnormal decay times is qualitatively reproduced within the model simply by varying the time scales for group coalescence and fragmentation. We provide an approximate analytic treatment of the system and highlight a novel transition which arises as a result of the social group dynamics.

Robust dynamic classes revealed by measuring the response function of a social system.

We study the relaxation response of a social system after endogenous and exogenous bursts of activity using the time series of daily views for nearly 5 million videos on YouTube. We find that most activity can be described accurately as a Poisson process. However, we also find hundreds of thousands of examples in which a burst of activity is followed by an ubiquitous power-law relaxation governing the timing of views. We find that these relaxation exponents cluster into three distinct classes and allow for the classification of collective human dynamics. This is consistent with an epidemic model on a social network containing two ingredients: a power-law distribution of waiting times between cause and action and an epidemic cascade of actions becoming the cause of future actions. This model is a conceptual extension of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem to social systems [Ruelle, D (2004) Phys Today 57:48-53] and [Roehner BM, et al., (2004) Int J Mod Phys C 15:809-834], and provides a unique framework for the investigation of timing in complex systems.