The prediction of violence and homicide in young men.

In this prospective study, the authors predicted violence and homicide in 3 representative school samples (N = 1,517). Participants were part of a longitudinal, multiple cohort study on the development of delinquency in boys from late childhood to early adulthood in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Thirty-three participants were convicted of homicide, 193 participants were convicted of serious violence, whereas another 498 participants self-reported serious violence. Predictors of violence included risk factors in the domains of child, family, school, and demographic characteristics. Boys with 4 or more violence risk factors were 6 times more likely to later commit violence in comparison with boys with fewer than 4 risk factors (odds ratio [OR] = 6.05). A subset of risk factors related to violence also predicted homicide among violent offenders. Boys with 4 or more risk factors for homicide were 14 times more likely to later commit homicide than violent individuals with fewer than 4 risk factors (OR = 14.48). Implications for the prevention of violence and homicide are discussed.

Parallel developmental trajectories of sensation seeking and regular substance use in adolescents.

This study applied piecewise latent growth modeling to longitudinal survey data from 2 different samples of adolescents (N=1,002 and N=1,206) to examine the hypothesis that development of sensation seeking in middle school would predict development of substance use (cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana) in middle school and high school. Results showed that sensation seeking had strong predictive value for both concurrent and distal marijuana and alcohol use in both samples; however, initial level of sensation seeking predicted initial level of cigarette use during high school in 1 sample only. White participants scored consistently higher on both initial level and rate of increase in sensation seeking than did participants of other ethnicities. Advantages of this methodology are discussed in the context of substance use research.