Measuring trends in age at first sex and age at marriage in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVE: To identify reporting biases and to determine the influence of inconsistent reporting on observed trends in the timing of age at first sex and age at marriage. METHODS: Longitudinal data from three rounds of a population-based cohort in eastern Zimbabwe were analysed. Reports of age at first sex and age at marriage from 6837 individuals attending multiple rounds were classified according to consistency. Survival analysis was used to identify trends in the timing of first sex and marriage. RESULTS: In this population, women initiate sex and enter marriage at younger ages than men but spend much less time between first sex and marriage. Among those surveyed between 1998 and 2005, median ages at first sex and first marriage were 18.5 years and 21.4 years for men and 18.2 years and 18.5 years, respectively, for women aged 15-54 years. High levels of reports of both age at first sex and age at marriage among those attending multiple surveys were found to be unreliable. Excluding reports identified as unreliable from these analyses did not alter the observed trends in either age at first sex or age at marriage. Tracing birth cohorts as they aged revealed reporting biases, particularly among the youngest cohorts. Comparisons by birth cohorts, which span a period of >40 years, indicate that median age at first sex has remained constant over time for women but has declined gradually for men. CONCLUSIONS: Although many reports of age at first sex and age at marriage were found to be unreliable, inclusion of such reports did not result in artificial generation or suppression of trends.

Comparative assessment of the quality of age-at-event reporting in three HIV cohort studies in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES: To assess inconsistencies in reported age at first sex (AFS) and age at first marriage (AFM) in three African cohorts, and consider their implications for interpreting trends in sexual and marital debut. METHODS: Data were analysed from population-based cohort studies in Zimbabwe, Uganda and South Africa with 3, 10 and 4 behavioural survey rounds, respectively. Three rounds over a similar time frame were selected from each site for comparative purposes. The consistency of AFS and AFM reports was assessed for each site by comparing responses made by participants in multiple surveys. Respondents were defined as unreliable if less than half of all their age-at-event reports were the same. Kaplan-Meier functions were used to describe the cumulative proportion (1) having had sex and (2) married by age, stratified by sex, birth cohort and site, to compare the influence of reporting inconsistencies on these estimates. RESULTS: Among participants attending all three comparable rounds, the percentage with unreliable AFS reports ranged from 30% among South African women to 56% among Zimbabwean men, with similar patterns observed for AFM. Inclusion of unreliable reports had little effect on estimates of median age-at-event in all sites. There was some evidence from the 1960-9 birth cohort that women in Uganda and both sexes in South Africa reported later AFS as they aged. CONCLUSION: Although reporting quality is unlikely to affect comparisons of AFS and AFM between settings, care should be taken not to overinterpret small changes in reported age-at-event over time within each site.

Trends in marriage and time spent single in sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative analysis of six population-based cohort studies and nine Demographic and Health Surveys.

OBJECTIVES: To describe trends in age at first sex (AFS), age at first marriage (AFM) and time spent single between events and to compare age-specific trends in marital status in six cohort studies. METHODS: Cohort data from Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were analysed. Life table methods were used to calculate median AFS, AFM and time spent single. In each study, two surveys were chosen to compare marital status by age and identify changes over time. RESULTS: Median AFM was much higher in South Africa than in the other sites. Between the other populations there were considerable differences in median AFS and AFM (AFS 17-19 years for men and 16-19 years for women, AFM 21-24 years and 18-19 years, respectively, for the 1970-9 birth cohort). In all surveys, men reported a longer time spent single than women (median 4-7 years for men and 0-2 years for women). Median years spent single for women has increased, apart from in Manicaland. For men in Rakai it has decreased slightly over time but increased in Kisesa and Masaka. The DHS data showed similar trends to those in the cohort data. The age-specific proportion of married individuals has changed little over time. CONCLUSIONS: Median AFS, AFM and time spent single vary considerably among these populations. These three measures are underlying determinants of sexual risk and HIV infection, and they may partially explain the variation in HIV prevalence levels between these populations.

Reported number of sexual partners: comparison of data from four African longitudinal studies.

OBJECTIVE: To compare reported numbers of sexual partners in Eastern and Southern Africa. METHODS: Sexual partnership data from four longitudinal population-based surveys (1998-2007) in Zimbabwe, Uganda and South Africa were aggregated and overall proportions reporting more than one lifetime sexual partner calculated. A lexis-style table was used to illustrate the average lifetime sexual partners by site, sex, age group and birth cohort. The male-to-female ratio of mean number of partnerships in the last 12 months was calculated by site and survey. For each single year of age, the proportion sexually active in the past year, the mean number of partners in the past year and the proportion with more than one partner in the past year were calculated. RESULTS: Over 90% of men and women between 25 and 45 years of age reported being sexually active during the past 12 months, with most reporting at least one sexual partner. Overall, men reported higher numbers of lifetime sexual partners and partners in the last year than women. The male-to-female ratio of mean partnerships in the last year ranged from 1.41 to 1.86. In southern African cohorts, individuals in later birth cohorts reported fewer sexual partners and a lower proportion reported multiple partnerships compared with earlier birth cohorts, whereas these behavioural changes were not observed in the Ugandan cohorts. Across the four sites, reports of sexual partnerships followed a similar pattern for each sex. CONCLUSIONS: The longitudinal results show that reductions in the number of partnerships were more evident in southern Africa than in Uganda.

The role of testing and counselling for HIV prevention and care in the era of scaling-up antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: HIV Testing and Counselling (TC) programmes are being scaled-up as part of efforts to provide universal access to antiretroviral treatment (ART). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Mathematical modelling of TC in Zimbabwe shows that if universal access is to be sustained, TC must include prevention counselling that enables behaviour change among infected and uninfected individuals. The predicted impact TC is modest, but improved programmes could generate substantial reductions in incidence, reducing need for ART in the long-term. CONCLUSIONS: TC programmes that focus only on identifying those in need of treatment will not be sufficient to bring the epidemic under control.