Determinants of imminent fracture risk in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis.

In elderly women with osteoporosis, prior fracture, low BMD, impaired physical functioning, poorer general health, and recent falls were all direct predictors of imminent (in next year) fracture risk. Prior fracture, older age, worse health, impaired cognitive functioning, and recent falls indirectly increased imminent risk by reducing physical functioning/general health. INTRODUCTION: This study was designed to examine determinants of imminent risk of osteoporotic fracture (i.e., next 1-2 years) in postmenopausal women. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from Caucasian women age 65 or older with osteoporosis who participated in the observational Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). We examined potential direct and indirect predictors of hip and nonvertebral fractures in 1-year follow-up intervals including anthropometric measures, bone mineral density (T-score), fracture since age 50, physical function, cognition, medical conditions, recent (past year) falls, and lifestyle factors. Clinically related variables were grouped into constructs via factor analysis. These constructs and selected individual variables were incorporated into a theoretical structural equation model to evaluate factors that influence imminent risk. RESULTS: Among 2261 patients, 19.4% had a nonvertebral fracture and 5.5% had a hip fracture within 1 year of a study visit between 1992 and 2008. Prior fracture, lower T-scores, lower physical functioning, and recent falls all directly increased 1-year risk of nonvertebral fracture. For both nonvertebral and hip fractures, prior fracture and recent falls influenced risk indirectly through general health, while cognition influenced risk via physical functioning. Age influenced both physical functioning and general health. CONCLUSIONS: Several established risk factors for 10-year fracture risk also played a role in predicting imminent risk of fracture (e.g., T-scores, prior fracture), as did falls, cognition, physical functioning, and general health. Fracture risk assessments should also consider falls and fall risk factors as well as established bone-related risk factors in assessing imminent fracture risk.

Predictors of near-term fracture in osteoporotic women aged ≥65 years, based on data from the study of osteoporotic fractures.

Using data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), several clinical characteristics predictive of near-term (1-year) risk of hip and non-vertebral fracture among elderly osteoporotic women were identified, and a subset of those for hip fracture was incorporated into a risk assessment tool. Additional research is needed to validate study findings. INTRODUCTION: While several risk factors are known to contribute to long-term fracture risk in women with osteoporosis, factors predicting fracture risk over a shorter time horizon, such as over a 1-year period, are less well-established. METHODS: We utilized a repeated-observations design and data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures to identify factors contributing to near-term risk of hip fracture and any non-vertebral fracture, respectively, among osteoporotic women aged ≥65 years. Potential predictors of hip fracture and any non-vertebral fracture over the 1-year period subsequent to each qualifying SOF exam were examined using multivariable frailty models. Because the discriminative ability of the hip fracture model was acceptable, a corresponding risk-prediction tool was also developed. RESULTS: Study population included 2499 women with osteoporosis, who contributed 6811 observations. Incidence of fracture in the 1-year period subsequent to each exam was 2.2% for hip fracture and 6.6% for any non-vertebral fracture. Independent predictors of hip fracture included low total hip T-score, prior fracture, and risk factors for falls (multivariable model c-statistic = 0.71 (95% CI 0.67-0.76)). Independent predictors of any non-vertebral fracture included age, total hip T-score, prior falls, prior fracture, walking speed, Parkinson's disease or stroke, and smoking (multivariable model c-statistic = 0.62 (0.59-0.65)). CONCLUSIONS: Several clinical characteristics predictive of hip and non-vertebral fracture within a 1-year follow-up period among elderly women with osteoporosis were identified, and a subset of those for hip fracture was incorporated into a risk assessment tool. Assessment of these risk factors may help guide osteoporosis treatment choices by identifying patients in whom there is urgency to treat. Additional research is needed to validate the findings of this study and the accuracy of the risk assessment tool.

Predicting imminent risk for fracture in patients aged 50 or older with osteoporosis using US claims data.

UNLABELLED: Patient characteristics contributing to imminent risk for fracture, defined as risk of near-term fracture within the next 12 to 24 months, have not been well defined. In patients without recent fracture, we identified factors predicting imminent risk for vertebral/nonvertebral fracture, including falls, age, comorbidities, and other potential fall risk factors. PURPOSE: Several factors contribute to long-term fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis, including age, bone mineral density, and fracture history. Some patients may be at imminent risk for fracture, defined here as a risk of near-term fracture within 12-24 months. Many patient characteristics contributing to imminent risk for fracture have not been well defined. This case-control study used US commercial and Medicare supplemental insured data for women and men without recent fracture to identify factors associated with imminent risk for fracture. METHODS: Patients included were aged ≥50 with osteoporosis, had a vertebral or nonvertebral fracture claim (index date; fracture group) or no fracture claim (control group) from January 1, 2006, to September 30, 2012, continuously enrolled and without fracture in the 24 months before index. Potential risk factors during the period before fracture were assessed. RESULTS: Using data from 12 months before fracture, factors significantly associated with imminent risk for fracture were previous falls, older age, poorer health status, specific comorbidities (psychosis, Alzheimer's disease, central nervous system disease), and other fall risk factors (wheelchair use, psychoactive medication use, mobility impairment). Similar findings were observed with data from 24 months before fracture. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with osteoporosis and no recent fracture, falls, older age, poorer health status, comorbidities, and other potential fall risk factors were predictive of imminent risk for fracture. Identification of factors associated with imminent risk for vertebral/nonvertebral fracture may help identify and risk stratify those patients most in need of immediate and appropriate treatment to decrease fracture risk.