Case Study Part 2: Probabilistic modelling of long-term effects of pesticides on individual breeding success in birds and mammals.

Long term exposure of skylarks to a fictitious insecticide and of wood mice to a fictitious fungicide were modelled probabilistically in a Monte Carlo simulation. Within the same simulation the consequences of exposure to pesticides on reproductive success were modelled using the toxicity-exposure-linking rules developed by R.S. Bennet et al. (2005) and the interspecies extrapolation factors suggested by R. Luttik et al. (2005). We built models to reflect a range of scenarios and as a result were able to show how exposure to pesticide might alter the number of individuals engaged in any given phase of the breeding cycle at any given time and predict the numbers of new adults at the season's end.

Case Study Part 1: How to calculate appropriate deterministic long-term toxicity to exposure ratios (TERs) for birds and mammals.

In the European Union, first-tier assessment of the long-term risk to birds and mammals from pesticides is based on calculation of a deterministic long-term toxicity/exposure ratio (TER(lt)). The ratio is developed from generic herbivores and insectivores and applied to all species. This paper describes two case studies that implement proposed improvements to the way long-term risk is assessed. These refined methods require calculation of a TER for each of five identified phases of reproduction (phase-specific TERs) and use of adjusted No Observed Effect Levels (NOELs) to incorporate variation in species sensitivity to pesticides. They also involve progressive refinement of the exposure estimate so that it applies to particular species, rather than generic indicators, and relates spraying date to onset of reproduction. The effect of using these new methods on the assessment of risk is described. Each refinement did not necessarily alter the calculated TER value in a way that was either predictable or consistent across both case studies. However, use of adjusted NOELs always reduced TERs, and relating spraying date to onset of reproduction increased most phase-specific TERs. The case studies suggested that the current first-tier TER(lt )assessment may underestimate risk in some circumstances and that phase-specific assessments can help identify appropriate risk-reduction measures. The way in which deterministic phase-specific assessments can currently be implemented to enhance first-tier assessment is outlined.

Risk assessment of UK skylark populations using life-history and individual-based landscape models.

Following a workshop exercise, two models, an individual-based landscape model (IBLM) and a non-spatial life-history model were used to assess the impact of a fictitious insecticide on populations of skylarks in the UK. The chosen population endpoints were abundance, population growth rate, and the chances of population persistence. Both models used the same life-history descriptors and toxicity profiles as the basis for their parameter inputs. The models differed in that exposure was a pre-determined parameter in the life-history model, but an emergent property of the IBLM, and the IBLM required a landscape structure as an input. The model outputs were qualitatively similar between the two models. Under conditions dominated by winter wheat, both models predicted a population decline that was worsened by the use of the insecticide. Under broader habitat conditions, population declines were only predicted for the scenarios where the insecticide was added. Inputs to the models are very different, with the IBLM requiring a large volume of data in order to achieve the flexibility of being able to integrate a range of environmental and behavioural factors. The life-history model has very few explicit data inputs, but some of these relied on extensive prior modelling needing additional data as described in Roelofs et al. (2005, this volume). Both models have strengths and weaknesses; hence the ideal approach is that of combining the use of both simple and comprehensive modeling tools.

Estimating the exposure of birds and mammals to pesticides in long-term risk assessments.

This paper reviews current EU pesticide risk assessment guidance [European Commission (2002) Guidance document on risk assessment for birds and mammals under council directive 91/414/EEC, SANCO/4145/2000EC 2002], and examines some of its assumptions and problems arising from them. Issues associated with obtaining data that adequately describes exposure over the appropriate time-scale are common to both acute and long-term risk assessments but are probably less problematic for long-term exposure. Improvements in problem formulation and ways in which temporal and spatial factors might be incorporated into long-term risk assessments are suggested. The most important temporal issue for long-term risk is how best to model the degree to which wildlife habits are predictable from day to day. In relation to spatial factors, it is suggested that long-term risk assessments could make better use of pesticide usage data that sample usage patterns throughout the UK. The usefulness of detailed simulated farming landscapes populated by wildlife represented as agent-based models, should be explored.

The effects of sex, birth order and admission to a special care baby unit on the fear of strangers reaction of infants.

The fear-of-stranger reaction was studied in 65 babies at seven, eight and nine months of age. It was more marked in first-born babies and in girls, and developed earlier in girls than boys. The type of response was independent of the sex of the stranger. Babies who had been in the Special Care Baby Unit (SCBU) tended to show less fear of strangers than controls, especially at seven months, and whereas later-born control girls were significantly more fearful of strangers than later-born control boys, this difference was not apparent in the group who had been in the SCBU. It is suggested that the difference is due to later-born girls who had been admitted to SCBU receiving relatively more social stimulation from their mothers.