Mechanistic population models for ecological risk assessment and decision support: The importance of good conceptual model diagrams.

The use of mechanistic population models as research and decision-support tools in ecology and ecological risk assessment (ERA) is increasing. This growth has been facilitated by advances in technology, allowing the simulation of more complex systems, as well as by standardized approaches for model development, documentation, and evaluation. Mechanistic population models are particularly useful for simulating complex systems, but the required model complexity can make them challenging to communicate. Conceptual diagrams that summarize key model elements, as well as elements that were considered but not included, can facilitate communication and understanding of models and increase their acceptance as decision-support tools. Currently, however, there are no consistent standards for creating or presenting conceptual model diagrams (CMDs), and both terminology and content vary widely. Here, we argue that greater consistency in CMD development and presentation is an important component of good modeling practice, and we provide recommendations, examples, and a free web app (pop-cmd.com) for achieving this for population models used for decision support in ERAs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-9. © 2023 SETAC.

New approaches to modeling primate socioecology: Does small female group size BEGET loyal males?

Humans are unusual in having stable male-female breeding bonds within multi-level societies. Such societies are not found in other apes, but have evolved independently in other primates, including several African papionins: hamadryas and Guinea baboons and gelada monkeys. Stable breeding bonds have been proposed to evolve either (1) because males can monopolize females when food distribution forces females to forage in small groups or (2) because females exchange exclusive mating for male services, such as protection from infanticide. Comparative studies are needed to test these hypotheses. In the meantime, we used an agent-based computer model to test the plausibility of these hypotheses. We simulated primates living in social groups within a larger population using a model we call BEGET (Behavior, Ecology, Genetics, Evolution, and Tradeoffs), which employed decision vectors, experimental evolution, realistic trade-offs, and phenotypic plasticity. We employed experimental evolution to generate male genotypes that varied in their competitive ability and in their long-term mating strategy. "Rover" males searched for and mated with any sexually receptive females whereas "Loyalist" males formed stable associations with particular groups of females. Much like living primates, the virtual primates exhibited tradeoffs between contest and scramble competition for access to females: Loyalists evolved larger body size than Rovers. We tested the effect of female foraging group size and the presence of infanticide and infant protection on the relative success of these strategies. We found that Loyalists achieved greater reproductive success than Rovers only when females were in groups smaller than four. Both Rovers and Loyalists sometimes evolved infanticidal behavior, but the presence of infanticide benefited Rovers rather than Loyalists, suggesting that the evolution of stable breeding bonds depends on the spatial distribution of females, rather than the risk of infanticide.

Humans as a model species for sexual selection research.

Ever since Darwin, questions about humans have driven sexual selection research. While studies of other organisms are often justified as useful for improving understanding of humans, humans themselves can be useful models. Although humans present some drawbacks as model organisms (complicated societies, slow reproduction and strong ethical constraints on experimental options), humans nonetheless offer many advantages (being abundant, accessible and having detailed historical records for some populations). As an additional challenge, humans exhibit a rather puzzling combination of traits. Some traits (pair-bonding, biparental care and modest sexual dimorphism in body size) suggest selection for monogamous mating, while other traits (including sexual dimorphism in body composition and appearance) suggest selection for polygyny. Such puzzles have motivated research on other species, resulting in a rich set of comparative data that provides insights into humans and other species. Recent studies of visual trait dimorphism suggest that human appearance reflects adaptation for multi-level societies, rather than high levels of polygyny. In addition to biological traits, human cultural traits have undergone rapid evolution. Changes in subsistence strategies profoundly affect opportunities for sexual selection. The enormous variability of human behaviour and ecology provides abundant opportunities to test key hypotheses, and poses challenging puzzles for future research.

Effects of low carbohydrate diets high in red meats or poultry, fish and shellfish on plasma lipids and weight loss.

BACKGROUND: Low carbohydrate diets (LCDs) have been demonstrated to be effective tools for promoting weight loss and an improved plasma lipid profile. Such diets are often associated with increased meat consumption, either poultry, fish, and shellfish (PFS), which are generally high in polyunsaturated fat (PUFA) or red meats (RM), generally high in saturated fat (SFA). The fatty acid profile and content of a diet may influence the plasma lipid profile of humans. This study examined whether the type of meat consumed could influence the outcome of an LCD. METHODS: Moderately obese subjects consumed two different LCDs as part of a weight loss regimen: 1) a diet high in foods of mammalian origin (RM) intended to contain more SFA, or 2) a diet high in PFS intended to contain more PUFA. Diet dependent changes in body weight, nutritional intake, and plasma lipids were evaluated during a 28 day study period. RESULTS: Both diets were associated with significant weight loss after 28 days, -5.26 +/- 0.84 kg and -5.74 +/- 0.63 kg for RM and PFS groups, respectively. The PFS diet was associated with a significantly higher intake of PUFA and cholesterol. Despite high cholesterol and fat intakes, neither diet was associated with significant changes in plasma cholesterol or the plasma lipoprotein cholesterol profile. While plasma triglycerides were reduced in both groups, the effect was only statistically significant for the PFS diet.