Improving our understanding of predictive bias in testing.

Predictive bias (i.e., differential prediction) means that regression equations predicting performance differ across groups based on protected status (e.g., ethnicity, sexual orientation, sexual identity, pregnancy, disability, and religion). Thus, making prescreening, admissions, and selection decisions when predictive bias exists violates principles of fairness based on equal treatment and opportunity. First, we conducted a two-part study showing that different types of predictive bias exist. Specifically, we conducted a Monte Carlo simulation showing that out-of-sample predictions provide a more precise understanding of the nature of predictive bias-whether it is based on intercept and/or slope differences across groups. Then, we conducted a college admissions study based on 29,734 Black and 304,372 White students, and 35,681 Latinx and 308,818 White students and provided evidence about the existence of both intercept- and slope-based predictive bias. Third, we discuss the nature and different types of predictive bias and offer analytical work to explain why each type exists, thereby providing insights into the causes of different types of predictive bias. We also map the statistical causes of predictive bias onto the existing literature on likely underlying psychological and contextual mechanisms. Overall, we hope our article will help reorient future predictive bias research from whether it exists to the why of different types of predictive bias. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Restricted Latent Class Models for Nominal Response Data: Identifiability and Estimation.

Restricted latent class models (RLCMs) provide an important framework for diagnosing and classifying respondents on a collection of multivariate binary responses. Recent research made significant advances in theory for establishing identifiability conditions for RLCMs with binary and polytomous response data. Multiclass data, which are unordered nominal response data, are also widely collected in the social sciences and psychometrics via forced-choice inventories and multiple choice tests. We establish new identifiability conditions for parameters of RLCMs for multiclass data and discuss the implications for substantive applications. The new identifiability conditions are applicable to a wealth of RLCMs for polytomous and nominal response data. We propose a Bayesian framework for inferring model parameters, assess parameter recovery in a Monte Carlo simulation study, and present an application of the model to a real dataset.

A sequential exploratory diagnostic model using a Pólya-gamma data augmentation strategy.

Cognitive diagnostic models provide a framework for classifying individuals into latent proficiency classes, also known as attribute profiles. Recent research has examined the implementation of a Pólya-gamma data augmentation strategy binary response model using logistic item response functions within a Bayesian Gibbs sampling procedure. In this paper, we propose a sequential exploratory diagnostic model for ordinal response data using a logit-link parameterization at the category level and extend the Pólya-gamma data augmentation strategy to ordinal response processes. A Gibbs sampling procedure is presented for efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods. We provide results from a Monte Carlo study for model performance and present an application of the model.

Social Expectations are Primarily Rooted in Reciprocity: An Investigation of Fairness, Cooperation, and Trustworthiness.

Social expectations guide people's evaluations of others' behaviors, but the origins of these expectations remain unclear. It is traditionally thought that people's expectations depend on their past observations of others' behavior, and people harshly judge atypical behavior. Here, we considered that social expectations are also influenced by a drive for reciprocity, and people evaluate others' actions by reflecting on their own decisions. To compare these views, we performed four studies. Study 1 used an Ultimatum Game task where participants alternated Responder and Proposer roles. Modeling participants' expectations suggested they evaluated the fairness of received offers via comparisons to their own offers. Study 2 replicated these findings and showed that observing selfish behavior (lowball offers) only promoted acceptance of selfishness if observers started acting selfishly themselves. Study 3 generalized the findings, demonstrating that they also arise in the Public Goods Game, emerge cross-culturally, and apply to antisocial punishment whereby selfish players punish generosity. Finally, Study 4 introduced the Trust Game and showed that participants trusted players who reciprocated their behavior, even if it was selfish, as much as they trusted generous players. Overall, this research shows that social expectations and evaluations are rooted in drives for reciprocity. This carries theoretical implications, speaking to a parallel in the mechanisms driving both decision-making and social evaluations, along with practical importance for understanding and promoting cooperation.

Identifiability of Hidden Markov Models for Learning Trajectories in Cognitive Diagnosis.

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been applied in various domains, which makes the identifiability issue of HMMs popular among researchers. Classical identifiability conditions shown in previous studies are too strong for practical analysis. In this paper, we propose generic identifiability conditions for discrete time HMMs with finite state space. Also, recent studies about cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) applied first-order HMMs to track changes in attributes related to learning. However, the application of CDMs requires a known [Formula: see text] matrix to infer the underlying structure between latent attributes and items, and the identifiability constraints of the model parameters should also be specified. We propose generic identifiability constraints for our restricted HMM and then estimate the model parameters, including the [Formula: see text] matrix, through a Bayesian framework. We present Monte Carlo simulation results to support our conclusion and apply the developed model to a real dataset.

Bayesian Inference for an Unknown Number of Attributes in Restricted Latent Class Models.

The specification of the [Formula: see text] matrix in cognitive diagnosis models is important for correct classification of attribute profiles. Researchers have proposed many methods for estimation and validation of the data-driven [Formula: see text] matrices. However, inference of the number of attributes in the general restricted latent class model remains an open question. We propose a Bayesian framework for general restricted latent class models and use the spike-and-slab prior to avoid the computation issues caused by the varying dimensions of model parameters associated with the number of attributes, K. We develop an efficient Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm to estimate K and the corresponding [Formula: see text] matrix simultaneously. The proposed algorithm uses the stick-breaking construction to mimic an Indian buffet process and employs a novel Metropolis-Hastings transition step to encourage exploring the sample space associated with different values of K. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method through a simulation study under different model specifications and apply the method to a real data set related to a fluid intelligence matrix reasoning test.

Extending exploratory diagnostic classification models: Inferring the effect of covariates.

Diagnostic models provide a statistical framework for designing formative assessments by classifying student knowledge profiles according to a collection of fine-grained attributes. The context and ecosystem in which students learn may play an important role in skill mastery, and it is therefore important to develop methods for incorporating student covariates into diagnostic models. Including covariates may provide researchers and practitioners with the ability to evaluate novel interventions or understand the role of background knowledge in attribute mastery. Existing research is designed to include covariates in confirmatory diagnostic models, which are also known as restricted latent class models. We propose new methods for including covariates in exploratory RLCMs that jointly infer the latent structure and evaluate the role of covariates on performance and skill mastery. We present a novel Bayesian formulation and report a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm for approximating the model parameter posterior distribution. We report Monte Carlo simulation evidence regarding the accuracy of our new methods and present results from an application that examines the role of student background knowledge on the mastery of a probability data set.

Inferring Latent Structure in Polytomous Data with a Higher-Order Diagnostic Model.

Researchers continue to develop and advance models for diagnostic research in the social and behavioral sciences. These diagnostic models (DMs) provide researchers with a framework for providing a fine-grained classification of respondents into substantively meaningful latent classes as defined by a multivariate collection of binary attributes. A central concern for DMs is advancing exploratory methods for uncovering the latent structure, which corresponds with the relationship between unobserved binary attributes and observed polytomous items with two or more response options. Multivariate behavioral polytomous data are often collected within a higher-order design where general factors underlying first-order latent variables. This study advances existing exploratory DMs for polytomous data by proposing a new method for inferring the latent structure underlying polytomous response data using a higher-order model to describe dependence among the discrete latent attributes. We report a novel Bayesian formulation that uses variable selection techniques for inferring the latent structure along with a higher-order factor model for attributes. We report evidence of accurate parameter recovery in a Monte Carlo simulation study and present results from an application to the 2012 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) problem-solving vignettes to demonstrate the method.

A Note on Weaker Conditions for Identifying Restricted Latent Class Models for Binary Responses.

Restricted latent class models (RLCMs) are an important class of methods that provide researchers and practitioners in the educational, psychological, and behavioral sciences with fine-grained diagnostic information to guide interventions. Recent research established sufficient conditions for identifying RLCM parameters. A current challenge that limits widespread application of RLCMs is that existing identifiability conditions may be too restrictive for some practical settings. In this paper we establish a weaker condition for identifying RLCM parameters for multivariate binary data. Although the new results weaken identifiability conditions for general RLCMs, the new results do not relax existing necessary and sufficient conditions for the simpler DINA/DINO models. Theoretically, we introduce a new form of latent structure completeness, referred to as dyad-completeness, and prove identification by applying Kruskal's Theorem for the uniqueness of three-way arrays. The new condition is more likely satisfied in applied research, and the results provide researchers and test-developers with guidance for designing diagnostic instruments.

Exploratory Restricted Latent Class Models with Monotonicity Requirements under PÒLYA-GAMMA Data Augmentation.

Restricted latent class models (RLCMs) provide an important framework for supporting diagnostic research in education and psychology. Recent research proposed fully exploratory methods for inferring the latent structure. However, prior research is limited by the use of restrictive monotonicity condition or prior formulations that are unable to incorporate prior information about the latent structure to validate expert knowledge. We develop new methods that relax existing monotonicity restrictions and provide greater insight about the latent structure. Furthermore, existing Bayesian methods only use a probit link function and we provide a new formulation for using the exploratory RLCM with a logit link function that has an additional advantage of being computationally more efficient for larger sample sizes. We present four new Bayesian formulations that employ different link functions (i.e., the logit using the Pòlya-gamma data augmentation versus the probit) and priors for inducing sparsity in the latent structure. We report Monte Carlo simulation studies to demonstrate accurate parameter recovery. Furthermore, we report results from an application to the Last Series of the Standard Progressive Matrices to illustrate our new methods.

Inferring the Number of Attributes for the Exploratory DINA Model.

Diagnostic classification models (DCMs) are widely used for providing fine-grained classification of a multidimensional collection of discrete attributes. The application of DCMs requires the specification of the latent structure in what is known as the [Formula: see text] matrix. Expert-specified [Formula: see text] matrices might be biased and result in incorrect diagnostic classifications, so a critical issue is developing methods to estimate [Formula: see text] in order to infer the relationship between latent attributes and items. Existing exploratory methods for estimating [Formula: see text] must pre-specify the number of attributes, K. We present a Bayesian framework to jointly infer the number of attributes K and the elements of [Formula: see text]. We propose the crimp sampling algorithm to transit between different dimensions of K and estimate the underlying [Formula: see text] and model parameters while enforcing model identifiability constraints. We also adapt the Indian buffet process and reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate [Formula: see text]. We report evidence that the crimp sampler performs the best among the three methods. We apply the developed methodology to two data sets and discuss the implications of the findings for future research.

A Restricted Four-Parameter IRT Model: The Dyad Four-Parameter Normal Ogive (Dyad-4PNO) Model.

Recently, there has been a renewed interest in the four-parameter item response theory model as a way to capture guessing and slipping behaviors in responses. Research has shown, however, that the nested three-parameter model suffers from issues of unidentifiability (San Martín et al. in Psychometrika 80:450-467, 2015), which places concern on the identifiability of the four-parameter model. Borrowing from recent advances in the identification of cognitive diagnostic models, in particular, the DINA model (Gu and Xu in Stat Sin https://doi.org/10.5705/ss.202018.0420 , 2019), a new model is proposed with restrictions inspired by this new literature to help with the identification issue. Specifically, we show conditions under which the four-parameter model is strictly and generically identified. These conditions inform the presentation of a new exploratory model, which we call the dyad four-parameter normal ogive (Dyad-4PNO) model. This model is developed by placing a hierarchical structure on the DINA model and imposing equality constraints on a priori unknown dyads of items. We present a Bayesian formulation of this model, and show that model parameters can be accurately recovered. Finally, we apply the model to a real dataset.

A Sparse Latent Class Model for Cognitive Diagnosis.

Cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) are latent variable models developed to infer latent skills, knowledge, or personalities that underlie responses to educational, psychological, and social science tests and measures. Recent research focused on theory and methods for using sparse latent class models (SLCMs) in an exploratory fashion to infer the latent processes and structure underlying responses. We report new theoretical results about sufficient conditions for generic identifiability of SLCM parameters. An important contribution for practice is that our new generic identifiability conditions are more likely to be satisfied in empirical applications than existing conditions that ensure strict identifiability. Learning the underlying latent structure can be formulated as a variable selection problem. We develop a new Bayesian variable selection algorithm that explicitly enforces generic identifiability conditions and monotonicity of item response functions to ensure valid posterior inference. We present Monte Carlo simulation results to support accurate inferences and discuss the implications of our findings for future SLCM research and educational testing.

A Multivariate Probit Model for Learning Trajectories: A Fine-Grained Evaluation of an Educational Intervention.

Advances in educational technology provide teachers and schools with a wealth of information about student performance. A critical direction for educational research is to harvest the available longitudinal data to provide teachers with real-time diagnoses about students' skill mastery. Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) offer educational researchers, policy makers, and practitioners a psychometric framework for designing instructionally relevant assessments and diagnoses about students' skill profiles. In this article, the authors contribute to the literature on the development of longitudinal CDMs, by proposing a multivariate latent growth curve model to describe student learning trajectories over time. The model offers several advantages. First, the learning trajectory space is high-dimensional and previously developed models may not be applicable to educational studies that have a modest sample size. In contrast, the method offers a lower dimensional approximation and is more applicable for typical educational studies. Second, practitioners and researchers are interested in identifying factors that cause or relate to student skill acquisition. The framework can easily incorporate covariates to assess theoretical questions about factors that promote learning. The authors demonstrate the utility of their approach with an application to a pre- or post-test educational intervention study and show how the longitudinal CDM framework can provide fine-grained assessment of experimental effects.

An Exploratory Diagnostic Model for Ordinal Responses with Binary Attributes: Identifiability and Estimation.

Diagnostic models (DMs) provide researchers and practitioners with tools to classify respondents into substantively relevant classes. DMs are widely applied to binary response data; however, binary response models are not applicable to the wealth of ordinal data collected by educational, psychological, and behavioral researchers. Prior research developed confirmatory ordinal DMs that require expert knowledge to specify the underlying structure. This paper introduces an exploratory DM for ordinal data. In particular, we present an exploratory ordinal DM, which uses a cumulative probit link along with Bayesian variable selection techniques to uncover the latent structure. Furthermore, we discuss new identifiability conditions for structured multinomial mixture models with binary attributes. We provide evidence of accurate parameter recovery in a Monte Carlo simulation study across moderate to large sample sizes. We apply the model to twelve items from the public-use, Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-1999 approaches to learning and self-description questionnaire and report evidence to support a three-attribute solution with eight classes to describe the latent structure underlying the teacher and parent ratings. In short, the developed methodology contributes to the development of ordinal DMs and broadens their applicability to address theoretical and substantive issues more generally across the social sciences.

High-Stakes Testing Case Study: A Latent Variable Approach for Assessing Measurement and Prediction Invariance.

The existence of differences in prediction systems involving test scores across demographic groups continues to be a thorny and unresolved scientific, professional, and societal concern. Our case study uses a two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator to jointly assess measurement invariance and prediction invariance in high-stakes testing. So, we examined differences across groups based on latent as opposed to observed scores with data for 176 colleges and universities from The College Board. Results showed that evidence regarding measurement invariance was rejected for the SAT mathematics (SAT-M) subtest at the 0.01 level for 74.5% and 29.9% of cohorts for Black versus White and Hispanic versus White comparisons, respectively. Also, on average, Black students with the same standing on a common factor had observed SAT-M scores that were nearly a third of a standard deviation lower than for comparable Whites. We also found evidence that group differences in SAT-M measurement intercepts may partly explain the well-known finding of observed differences in prediction intercepts. Additionally, results provided evidence that nearly a quarter of the statistically significant observed intercept differences were not statistically significant at the 0.05 level once predictor measurement error was accounted for using the 2SLS procedure. Our joint measurement and prediction invariance approach based on latent scores opens the door to a new high-stakes testing research agenda whose goal is to not simply assess whether observed group-based differences exist and the size and direction of such differences. Rather, the goal of this research agenda is to assess the causal chain starting with underlying theoretical mechanisms (e.g., contextual factors, differences in latent predictor scores) that affect the size and direction of any observed differences.

Estimating the Cognitive Diagnosis [Formula: see text] Matrix with Expert Knowledge: Application to the Fraction-Subtraction Dataset.

Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are an important psychometric framework for classifying students in terms of attribute and/or skill mastery. The [Formula: see text] matrix, which specifies the required attributes for each item, is central to implementing CDMs. The general unavailability of [Formula: see text] for most content areas and datasets poses a barrier to widespread applications of CDMs, and recent research accordingly developed fully exploratory methods to estimate Q. However, current methods do not always offer clear interpretations of the uncovered skills and existing exploratory methods do not use expert knowledge to estimate Q. We consider Bayesian estimation of [Formula: see text] using a prior based upon expert knowledge using a fully Bayesian formulation for a general diagnostic model. The developed method can be used to validate which of the underlying attributes are predicted by experts and to identify residual attributes that remain unexplained by expert knowledge. We report Monte Carlo evidence about the accuracy of selecting active expert-predictors and present an application using Tatsuoka's fraction-subtraction dataset.

A Hidden Markov Model for Learning Trajectories in Cognitive Diagnosis With Application to Spatial Rotation Skills.

The increasing presence of electronic and online learning resources presents challenges and opportunities for psychometric techniques that can assist in the measurement of abilities and even hasten their mastery. Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are ideal for tracking many fine-grained skills that comprise a domain, and can assist in carefully navigating through the training and assessment of these skills in e-learning applications. A class of CDMs for modeling changes in attributes is proposed, which is referred to as learning trajectories. The authors focus on the development of Bayesian procedures for estimating parameters of a first-order hidden Markov model. An application of the developed model to a spatial rotation experimental intervention is presented.

An Improved Strategy for Bayesian Estimation of the Reduced Reparameterized Unified Model.

A Bayesian formulation for a popular conjunctive cognitive diagnosis model, the reduced reparameterized unified model (rRUM), is developed. The new Bayesian formulation of the rRUM employs a latent response data augmentation strategy that yields tractable full conditional distributions. A Gibbs sampling algorithm is described to approximate the posterior distribution of the rRUM parameters. A Monte Carlo study supports accurate parameter recovery and provides evidence that the Gibbs sampler tended to converge in fewer iterations and had a larger effective sample size than a commonly employed Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The developed method is disseminated for applied researchers as an R package titled "rRUM."

Bayesian Estimation of the DINA Q matrix.

Cognitive diagnosis models are partially ordered latent class models and are used to classify students into skill mastery profiles. The deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate model (DINA) is a popular psychometric model for cognitive diagnosis. Application of the DINA model requires content expert knowledge of a Q matrix, which maps the attributes or skills needed to master a collection of items. Misspecification of Q has been shown to yield biased diagnostic classifications. We propose a Bayesian framework for estimating the DINA Q matrix. The developed algorithm builds upon prior research (Chen, Liu, Xu, & Ying, in J Am Stat Assoc 110(510):850-866, 2015) and ensures the estimated Q matrix is identified. Monte Carlo evidence is presented to support the accuracy of parameter recovery. The developed methodology is applied to Tatsuoka's fraction-subtraction dataset.