Detection of periodic peaks in Karenia brevis concentration consistent with the time-delay logistic equation.

The logistic equation models single-species population growth with a sigmoid curve that begins as exponential and ends with an asymptotic approach to a final population determined by natural system carrying capacity. But the population of a natural system often does not stabilize as it approaches carrying capacity. Instead, it exhibits periodic change, sometimes with very large amplitudes. The time-delay modification of the logistic equation accounts for this behavior by connecting the present rate of population growth to conditions at an earlier time. The periodic change in population with time can progress from a monotonic approach to the carrying capacity; to oscillation around the carrying capacity; to limit-cycle periodic change; and, finally, to chaotic change. The presence of multiple species and inadequate sampling frequency and spatial coverage hinder the application of the time-delay logistic equation to real-world populations. Blooms of Karenia brevis along the southwest Florida Gulf Coast, however, provide a unique opportunity in that blooms are nearly monospecific and are sampled frequently over a wide geographic region; they are good candidates for testing the time-delay logistic equation. We show that these blooms exhibit peaks in concentration with periods in the range of 40-100 days, consistent with that predicted by the time-delay logistic equation. Cell concentrations in the valleys between the peaks are at least 2-3 orders of magnitude lower than peak values, offering predictable windows of opportunity for potential mitigation efforts.

Precipitation, submarine groundwater discharge of nitrogen, and red tides along the southwest Florida Gulf coast.

Blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis occur almost every year along the southwest Florida Gulf coast. Long-duration blooms with especially high concentrations of K. brevis, known as red tides, destroy marine life through production of neurotoxins. Current hypotheses are that red tides originate in oligotrophic waters far offshore using nitrogen (N) from upwelling bottom water or, alternatively, from blooms of Trichodesmium, followed by advection to nearshore waters. But the amount of N available from terrestrial sources does not appear to be adequate to maintain a nearshore red tide. To explain this discrepancy, we hypothesize that contemporary red tides are associated with release of N from offshore submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) that has accumulated in benthic sediment biomass by dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA). The release occurs when sediment labile organic carbon (LOC), used as the electron donor in DNRA, is exhausted. Detritus from the resulting destruction of marine life restores the sediment LOC to continue the cycle of red tides. The severity of individual red tides increases with increased bloom-year precipitation in the geographic region where the SGD originates, while the severity of ordinary blooms is relatively unaffected.