ABSTRACT
Three studies conducted in Vermont yielded data on 82 sexual recidivists' index offenses (Time 1) and sexual reoffenses (Time 2) across 16 modus operandi (MO) characteristics. The current study examines the stability of these 16 characteristics between Time 1 and Time 2 offenses. Probabilities of Time 1-Time 2 characteristic combinations are reported, including when controlling for static risk as measured by the Static-99R and Vermont Assessment of Sex Offender Risk-2 (VASOR-2). Overall, considerable stability of offenders' MO was evident between Time 1 and Time 2 offenses. Victim characteristics and offense behaviors were the most stable MO characteristics, and degree of force used and victim injury were less stable and trended toward less forceful and less injurious reoffenses. Controlling for static risk had little impact on the patterns of MO stability.
Subject(s)
Criminals/statistics & numerical data , Sex Offenses/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , Humans , Male , Risk Assessment , Vermont , Young AdultABSTRACT
The present study aimed to revise the Vermont Assessment of Sex Offender Risk (VASOR) Reoffense Risk Scale, a commonly used sex offender risk assessment tool. The revised tool was named the VASOR-2. Among models tested to revise the scale, a logistic regression model showed the best balance between simplicity of use, goodness of fit, and internal validity (as tested with K-10 cross-validation), and maximized predictive accuracy. Predictive accuracy was tested using four meta-analytically combined data sets drawn from Canada and Vermont (N = 1,581). At 5-year fixed follow-up, the predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism for VASOR-2 (AUC = .74) was similar to the VASOR (AUC = .71). The findings show the VASOR-2 is well calibrated with observed recidivism rates for all but the highest risk sex offenders. The instrument showed good interrater reliability (ICC = .88). An advantage of the VASOR-2 is that it has fewer items and simpler scoring instructions than the VASOR. Norms are presented for a contemporary, nonselected, routine sample of Vermont sex offenders (n = 887).
Subject(s)
Actuarial Analysis , Criminals , Risk Assessment , Sex Offenses , Adult , Canada , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Reproducibility of Results , Vermont , Young AdultABSTRACT
The Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS) is a 16-item rating scale designed to assess dynamic risk among adult male sex offenders and degree of change at 6-month intervals during treatment. The purpose of the present study was to examine the psychometric properties of the SOTIPS in a construction sample of 759 adult male sex offenders who were under correctional supervision and enrolled in cognitive-behavioral community treatment in Vermont between 2001 and 2007. The scale showed acceptable interrater reliability. SOTIPS scores at 1, 7, and 13 months after participants began treatment predicted sexual, violent, and any recidivism, and return to prison at fixed 1- and 3-year follow-up periods (AUCs = .60 to .85). Combined SOTIPS and Static-99R scores predicted all recidivism types (AUCs = .67 to .89) and outperformed either instrument alone when both instruments had similar predictive power. Participants who demonstrated treatment progress, as reflected by reductions in SOTIPS scores, showed lower rates of recidivism than those who did not.
Subject(s)
Child Abuse, Sexual/rehabilitation , Risk Assessment/standards , Sex Offenses/prevention & control , Surveys and Questionnaires/standards , Adult , Child , Child Abuse, Sexual/diagnosis , Child Abuse, Sexual/prevention & control , Criminal Psychology/standards , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Psychometrics , Reproducibility of Results , Research Design , Research Subjects , Risk Factors , Young AdultABSTRACT
This study compared a group of 104 adult male sex offenders who received community cognitive-behavioral treatment, correctional supervision, and periodic polygraph compliance exams with a matched group of 104 sex offenders who received the same type of treatment and supervision services but no polygraph exams. Polygraph exams focused on whether participants were following their conditions of community supervision and treatment and had avoided committing new sexual offenses. The two groups were exact pair-wise matched on three variables: (1) Static-99 risk score (Hanson & Thornton 2000, Law and Human Behavior, 24, 119-136), (2) status as a completer of prison sex offender treatment, and (3) date placed in the community. At fixed 5-year follow-up periods, the number of individuals in the polygraph group charged with committing a new non-sexual violent offense was significantly lower than in the no polygraph group (2.9% versus 11.5%). However, there were no significant between-group differences for the number of individuals charged for new sexual (5.8% versus 6.7%), any sexual or violent (8.7% versus 16.3%), or any criminal offense (39.4% versus 34.6%). The results are discussed in terms of their clinical and research implications.
