Testing the hierarchy of predictability in grassland restoration across a gradient of environmental severity.

Ecological restoration is critical for recovering degraded ecosystems but is challenged by variable success and low predictability. Understanding which outcomes are more predictable and less variable following restoration can improve restoration effectiveness. Recent theory asserts that the predictability of outcomes would follow an order from most to least predictable from coarse to fine community properties (physical structure > taxonomic diversity > functional composition > taxonomic composition) and that predictability would increase with more severe environmental conditions constraining species establishment. We tested this "hierarchy of predictability" hypothesis by synthesizing outcomes along an aridity gradient with 11 grassland restoration projects across the United States. We used 1829 vegetation monitoring plots from 227 restoration treatments, spread across 52 sites. We fit generalized linear mixed-effects models to predict six indicators of restoration outcomes as a function of restoration characteristics (i.e., seed mixes, disturbance, management actions, time since restoration) and used variance explained by models and model residuals as proxies for restoration predictability. We did not find consistent support for our hypotheses. Physical structure was among the most predictable outcomes when the response variable was relative abundance of grasses, but unpredictable for total canopy cover. Similarly, one dimension of taxonomic composition related to species identities was unpredictable, but another dimension of taxonomic composition indicating whether exotic or native species dominated the community was highly predictable. Taxonomic diversity (i.e., species richness) and functional composition (i.e., mean trait values) were intermittently predictable. Predictability also did not increase consistently with aridity. The dimension of taxonomic composition related to the identity of species in restored communities was more predictable (i.e., smaller residuals) in more arid sites, but functional composition was less predictable (i.e., larger residuals), and other outcomes showed no significant trend. Restoration outcomes were most predictable when they related to variation in dominant species, while those responding to rare species were harder to predict, indicating a potential role of scale in restoration predictability. Overall, our results highlight additional factors that might influence restoration predictability and add support to the importance of continuous monitoring and active management beyond one-time seed addition for successful grassland restoration in the United States.

Ecological Restoration Practices within a Semi-arid Natural Gas Field Improve Insect Abundance and Diversity during Early and Late Growing Season.

Insects are critical components of terrestrial ecosystems and are often considered ecosystem engineers. Due to the vast amount of ecosystem services they provide, because statistically valid samples can be captured in short durations, and because they respond rapidly to environmental change, insects have been used as indicators of restoration success and ecosystem functionality. In Wyoming (USA), ecological restoration required on thousands of acres of land surface have been disturbed to extract natural gas. In this study, we compared early seral reclamation sites to reference areas at two points within a growing season. We compared insect abundance and family richness on 6 natural gas well pads with early season perennial forbs and 6 well pads with the late season to insect communities on adjacent reference areas. A total of 237 individual insects were found on early season reclaimed sites compared to 84 on reference sites, while 858 insects were found on late season reclaimed sites compared to 38 on reference sites. Insect abundance was significantly higher on reclaimed well pads compared to reference areas at both points in the growing season, while reclaimed sites had significantly higher Shannon Diversity Index in early season and significantly higher family richness in late season compared to their paired reference sites. We also found interesting differences in abundance at family levels.

Drivers of seedling establishment success in dryland restoration efforts.

Restoration of degraded drylands is urgently needed to mitigate climate change, reverse desertification and secure livelihoods for the two billion people who live in these areas. Bold global targets have been set for dryland restoration to restore millions of hectares of degraded land. These targets have been questioned as overly ambitious, but without a global evaluation of successes and failures it is impossible to gauge feasibility. Here we examine restoration seeding outcomes across 174 sites on six continents, encompassing 594,065 observations of 671 plant species. Our findings suggest reasons for optimism. Seeding had a positive impact on species presence: in almost a third of all treatments, 100% of species seeded were growing at first monitoring. However, dryland restoration is risky: 17% of projects failed, with no establishment of any seeded species, and consistent declines were found in seeded species as projects matured. Across projects, higher seeding rates and larger seed sizes resulted in a greater probability of recruitment, with further influences on species success including site aridity, taxonomic identity and species life form. Our findings suggest that investigations examining these predictive factors will yield more effective and informed restoration decision-making.

Ground-level Unmanned Aerial System Imagery Coupled with Spatially Balanced Sampling and Route Optimization to Monitor Rangeland Vegetation.

Rangeland ecosystems cover 3.6 billion hectares globally with 239 million hectares located in the United States. These ecosystems are critical for maintaining global ecosystem services. Monitoring vegetation in these ecosystems is required to assess rangeland health, to gauge habitat suitability for wildlife and domestic livestock, to combat invasive weeds, and to elucidate temporal environmental changes. Although rangeland ecosystems cover vast areas, traditional monitoring techniques are often time-consuming and cost-inefficient, subject to high observer bias, and often lack adequate spatial information. Image-based vegetation monitoring is faster, produces permanent records (i.e., images), may result in reduced observer bias, and inherently includes adequate spatial information. Spatially balanced sampling designs are beneficial in monitoring natural resources. A protocol is presented for implementing a spatially balanced sampling design known as balanced acceptance sampling (BAS), with imagery acquired from ground-level cameras and unmanned aerial systems (UAS). A route optimization algorithm is used in addition to solve the 'travelling salesperson problem' (TSP) to increase time and cost efficiency. While UAS images can be acquired 2-3x faster than handheld images, both types of images are similar to each other in terms of accuracy and precision. Lastly, the pros and cons of each method are discussed and examples of potential applications for these methods in other ecosystems are provided.