Not all patients meet the 1day per percent burn rule: A simple method for predicting hospital length of stay in patients with burn.

INTRODUCTION: Hospital length of stay (LOS) is utilized to estimate resource utilization and quality of care. In burns the LOS estimation is 1day per percent total body surface area burn (1day/%TBSA). Our purpose was to evaluate the 1day/%TBSA burn rule and develop simple accurate formulas to predict LOS. METHODS: The American Burn Association National Burn Repository (NBR) from 2000 to 2013 was utilized to collate data on patients >18 years. We divided 106,543 records in half, utilizing one set to develop a model (training set) and the other to test the model (test set). We calculated the difference between observed and predicted LOS for all patients, and then examined the effect of inhalation injury and age using a linear regression model containing TBSA, age, inhalation injury and all two-way interactions. We compared predictive performance of the linear regression model to the 1day/%TBSA rule. Finally, we developed and validated three simple formulas to more accurately predict LOS than the 1day/% TBSA rule. RESULTS: LOS was significantly associated with patient age, TBSA, inhalation injury, and all two-way interactions. For patients <40 years without inhalation injury the main effect of TBSA was 0.71. For each decade increase in age, LOS increased by 0.74days/TBSA burn; inhalation injury added 1.70days. LOS was highly variable among patients with similar burn size, age and inhalation injury due to concomitant trauma, complications, and comorbidities. We developed 3 formulas to estimate patient LOS: (1) inhalation injury present, regardless of age (2) no inhalation injury and ≥40 years old (3) no inhalation injury and <40 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Traditional LOS estimates of 1day/%TBSA burn rule is biased, underestimating LOS, particularly for patients >40 years with inhalation injury. The following formulas applied at admission can accurately estimate hospital LOS, improve prediction over 1day/%TBSA, and provide results comparable to complicated models.

Real-Time Prediction for Burn Length of Stay Via Median Residual Hospital Length of Stay Methodology.

Hospital length of stay (LOS) after burn injury is commonly estimated as 1 day per percent burn, but LOS often exceeds that estimate. The purpose of this study is to develop a novel method for estimating burn hospital LOS at any time during hospitalization. The authors used the American Burn Association National Burn Repository from 2000 to 2009 to directly estimate the median residual LOS (MRLOS) of patients hospitalized for burn injuries and who survived to discharge. The MRLOS is the median of how many more days a burn patient will be hospitalized given that the person has been in hospital for a specified time period. The authors also estimated the 25th and 75th percentiles of residual life and quantified the relationship between MRLOS and LOS with ordinary least squares for all burn patients, by burn size and by presence of inhalation injury. MRLOS increased with increasing LOS, confirming that discharge estimates change over time. Patients with inhalation injury had longer MRLOS than patients without inhalation injury in the first 100 hospital days. Patients with large burns (>25%) had large MRLOS consistent with prolonged hospitalization, but patients with small burns (<25%) also had steadily increasing MRLOS during hospitalization (ie, the longer the patient was in the hospital, the longer the predicted LOS regardless of initial LOS estimate). Estimating remaining hospital LOS at any time during admission has been problematic; MRLOS can be used to provide an estimate of remaining hospital LOS and resource utilization to families, administrators, and other medical professionals.

A competing risk analysis for hospital length of stay in patients with burns.

IMPORTANCE: Current outcome predictors for illness and injury are measured at a single time point-admission. However, patient prognosis often changes during hospitalization, limiting the usefulness of those predictions. Accurate depiction of the dynamic interaction between competing events during hospitalization may enable real-time outcome assessment. OBJECTIVE: To determine how the effects of burn outcome predictors (ie, age, total body surface area burn, and inhalation injury) and the outcomes of interest (ie, mortality and length of stay) vary as a function of time throughout hospitalization. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this retrospective study, we used the American Burn Association's National Burn Repository, containing outcomes and patient and injury characteristics, to identify 95 579 patients admitted with an acute burn injury to 80 tertiary American Burn Association burn centers from 2000 through 2009. We applied competing risk statistical methods to analyze patient outcomes. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: We estimated the cause-specific hazard rates for death and discharge to assess how the instantaneous risk of these events changed across time. We further evaluated the varying effects of patient age, total body surface area burn, and inhalation injury on the probability of discharge and death across time. RESULTS: Maximum length of stay among patients who died was 270 days and 731 days among those discharged. Total body surface area, age, and inhalation injury had significant effects on the subdistribution hazard for discharge (P < .001); these effects varied across time (P < .002). Burn size (coefficient -0.046) determined early outcomes, while age (coefficient -0.034) determined outcomes later in the hospitalization. Inhalation injury (coefficient -0.622) played a variable role in survival and hospital length of stay. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Real-time measurement of dynamic interrelationships among burn outcome predictors using competing risk analysis demonstrated that the key factors influencing outcomes differed throughout hospitalization. Further application of this analytic technique to other injury or illness types may improve assessment of outcomes.

Burn center volume makes a difference for burned children.

OBJECTIVES: Determine the relationship between the volume of burn admissions and outcomes for children with burns. DESIGN: Retrospective review of the National Burn Repository from 2000-2009 using mixed effect logistic regression modeling. SETTING: Tertiary burn centers in the United States. PATIENTS: All children <18 years of age admitted with burn injury to a burn center submitting data to the National Burn Repository. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of the 210,683 records in the NBR from 2000-2009, 33,115 records for children ≤ 18 years of age met criteria for analysis; 26,280 had burn sizes smaller than 10%; only 32 of these children died. Volume of children treated varied greatly among facilities. Age, total body surface area burn, inhalation injury, and burn center volume influenced mortality (p < 0.05) An increase in the median yearly admissions of 100 decreased the odds of mortality by approximately 40%. High volume centers (admitting >200 pediatric patients/year) had the lowest mortality when adjusting for age and injury characteristics (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Higher volume pediatric burn centers had lower mortality, particularly at larger burn sizes. The lower mortality of children a high volume centers could reflect greater experience, resource, and specialized expertise in treating pediatric patients.

Predicting mortality from burns: the need for age-group specific models.

Traditional burn mortality models are derived using all age groups. We hypothesized that age variably impacts mortality after burn and that age-specific models for children, adults, and seniors will more accurately predict mortality than an all-ages model. We audited data from the American Burn Association (ABA) National Burn Repository (NBR) from 2000 to 2009 and used mixed effect logistic regression models to assess the influence of age, total body surface area (TBSA) burn, and inhalation injury on mortality. Mortality models were constructed for all ages and age-specific models: children (<18 years), adults (18-60 years), and seniors (>60 years). Model performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Main effect and two-way interactions were used to construct age-group specific mortality models. Each age-specific model was compared to the All Ages model. Of 286,293 records 100,051 had complete data. Overall mortality was 4% but varied by age (17% seniors, <1% children). Age, TBSA, and inhalation injury were significant mortality predictors for all models (p<0.05). Differences in predicted mortality between the All Ages model and the age-specific models occurred in children and seniors. In the age-specific pediatric model, predicted mortality decreased with age; inhalation injury had greater effect on mortality than in the All Ages model. In the senior model mortality increased with age. Seniors had greater increase in mortality per 1% increment in burn size and 1 year increase in age than other ages. The predicted mortality in seniors using the senior-specific model was higher than in the All Ages model. "One size fits all" models for predicting burn outcomes do not accurately reflect the outcomes for seniors and children. Age-specific models for children and seniors may be advisable.

A validity review of the National Burn Repository.

Health-related registries arose because of clinicians' desires to improve patient quality of care for a specific disorder. As such, disease registries differ from administrative registries in concept, organization, purpose, data recording, and results. Because of their voluntary nature, health-related disease registries are not regularly audited, have a narrow focus, and are designed for clinicians, not administrators. As part of a Department of Defense initiative, we conducted an intensive qualitative review of the American Burn Association's National Burn Repository (NBR). Our objectives are to inform future users of the NBR of issues that could affect statistical analyses and inferences and assist efforts to improve data collection. We obtained a deidentified copy of the 2009 release of the NBR containing 286,293 records. We reviewed this data set for 1) records lacking vital patient information (age, burn size, survival, gender); 2) inconsistencies between data in different fields of the database; and 3) duplicate values. By restricting our review to records with an admission year of 2000 or later, we found that vital patient information was missing or invalid for about 60,000 records. Data inconsistencies were found in hospital admission status (initial admission or readmission) for about 12,000 records, survival for about 950 records, and burn injury for about 5500 records. Depending on the criterion used to identify duplicate records, we found at least 4000 duplicate records but as many as 14,000 in the database. Finally, significant data quality issues were found for facilities not using the Trauma Registry for the American College of Surgeons (TRACS) software. All health-related disease registries, unlike administrative databases, are voluntary. Anonymity of data is vital, and data auditing and reporting are challenging. The data contained in the NBR is disease-specific, and, as such, has the potential to provide valuable epidemiologic, treatment, and outcome data as reported by clinicians, not registrars. The NBR provides substantive data on burn injury; however, data review needs to precede data analysis. Revisions to NBR data collection have improved the quality of data submitted, yet data quality issues remain in the current database. Investigators are cautioned to thoroughly assess all fields before conducting analyses using the NBR.

Saturday-morning television: do sponsors promote high-risk behavior for burn injury?

Television has become an important tool for learning and socialization in children. Although television violence has been associated with adverse effects, data on depiction of fire and burn injury are lacking. We sought to determine whether Saturday-morning television programming, viewed primarily by children, depicts fire and burn injury as safe or without consequence, thus potentially increasing the incidence of burn injury in children. This was a prospective observational study. Saturday-morning children's television programs were videotaped from 7 AM to 11 AM for eight different television networks during a 6-month period. Tapes were scored for scenes depicting fire or smoke by independent observers. Recorded items included show category, scene type, gender target, context of fire, and outcome after exposure to flame. Fire events were documented during programs and their associated commercials. A total of 108 hours of children's programs, 16 hours per network, were recorded. Scenes depicting fire or smoke were identified 1960 times, with 39% of events occurring during the program itself and 61% in commercials. Fire was depicted as either safe or without consequence in 64% of incidents. Action adventure stories accounted for 56% of flame depictions. Overall, one incident involving flame and fire was portrayed for each 3 minutes of television programming. Saturday-morning television programming frequently depicts fire as safe, empowering, or exciting. The incidence of flame use in programming varies between stations but is most prevalent in action/adventure stories. Television commercials, although brief, provide the majority of the misinformation regarding fire. Medical professional societies should alert the public to this potential hazard and recommend responsible portrayal of fire in children's television programming.

The circle of safety: a campfire burn prevention campaign expanding nationwide.

Camping is a popular family activity, especially during the spring and summer months. Campfires are a common activity among campers. They offer a source of recreation but also pose a risk for severe burns. The rising number of children with campfire burns seen at our institution triggered a quest for a campaign for the prevention of these injuries. A chart review was performed to study the characteristics and the circumstances of burn injuries of all children treated for campfire-related injuries over a 4-year period between 1997 and 2001. Thirty-two children sustained campfire-related burn injuries, with 88% being under the age of 7. The children had either fallen into the campfire or walked into simmering coals. All accidents would have been prevented if the children had kept a safe distance from the campfire. Normal growth charts were used to determine the average height of 7-year-old children as being 48 inches. A campaign was started to encourage families to keep a safe distance of 4 feet from their campfires by drawing a "circle of safety" with a stick on the ground 4 feet away from the fire.

Playing with fire: images of fire on toy packaging.

Despite prevention efforts designed to teach children that fire is not a toy, each year hundreds of children, primarily male, are injured while playing with fire. Mass-produced toys and games shape children's behaviors, and the fire images on toy packaging may send the message that fire is fun rather than dangerous. The purpose of this study was to determine the frequency of male fire-related injuries at our burn center and to investigate the use of fire images in toy packaging. An aisle-by-aisle search was conducted at a national toy store. Toys with fire images on their packaging were identified. Target gender and the setting in which the fire was displayed also were recorded. Only toys with clearly visible flames on their packaging were included. We reviewed our TRACS database from April 1997 to May 1999 for fire-related injuries to children admitted to our institution as a result of playing with fire. Review of toy stores revealed 404 toys with packaging containing fire images. Of these, 97% (393 of 404) were targeted to males. Video games were the leading category of flame-related packaging (208 of 404), followed by toy car/truck displays (84 of 404). Packaging for girls' toys had safe and contained settings, whereas boys' toys used settings that were uncontrolled and associated with speed and weapons. A total of 59 children, 52 males and 7 females, with a mean age of 10 +/- 0.6 years and mean TBSA burn of 12.3 +/- 2.1% were admitted to our facility with fire-related injuries during the study interval. Children imitate life with toys and use play to experiment with new behavior. Boys are receiving a powerful, consistent message from images of fire on toy packaging. These advertisements may help to contribute to the higher incidence of fire-related injuries in boys.