Test, test, test for COVID-19 antibodies: the importance of sensitivity, specificity and predictive powers.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody tests of varying specificity and sensitivity are now available. For informing individuals whether they have had coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), they need to be very accurate. For measuring population prevalence of past infection, the numbers of false positives and negatives need to be roughly equal. With a series of worked examples for a notional population of 100,000 people, we show that even test systems with a high specificity can yield a large number of false positive results, especially where the population prevalence is low. For example, at a true population prevalence of 5%, using a test with 99% sensitivity and specificity, 16% of positive results will be false and thus 950 people will be incorrectly informed they have had the infection. Further confirmatory testing may be needed. Giving false reassurance on which personal or societal decisions might be based could be harmful for individuals, undermine public confidence and foster further outbreaks.

Parallel habitat acclimatization is realized by the expression of different genes in two closely related salamander species (genus Salamandra).

The utilization of similar habitats by different species provides an ideal opportunity to identify genes underlying adaptation and acclimatization. Here, we analysed the gene expression of two closely related salamander species: Salamandra salamandra in Central Europe and Salamandra infraimmaculata in the Near East. These species inhabit similar habitat types: 'temporary ponds' and 'permanent streams' during larval development. We developed two species-specific gene expression microarrays, each targeting over 12 000 transcripts, including an overlapping subset of 8331 orthologues. Gene expression was examined for systematic differences between temporary ponds and permanent streams in larvae from both salamander species to establish gene sets and functions associated with these two habitat types. Only 20 orthologues were associated with a habitat in both species, but these orthologues did not show parallel expression patterns across species more than expected by chance. Functional annotation of a set of 106 genes with the highest effect size for a habitat suggested four putative gene function categories associated with a habitat in both species: cell proliferation, neural development, oxygen responses and muscle capacity. Among these high effect size genes was a single orthologue (14-3-3 protein zeta/YWHAZ) that was downregulated in temporary ponds in both species. The emergence of four gene function categories combined with a lack of parallel expression of orthologues (except 14-3-3 protein zeta) suggests that parallel habitat adaptation or acclimatization by larvae from S. salamandra and S. infraimmaculata to temporary ponds and permanent streams is mainly realized by different genes with a converging functionality.

The genomics of incompatibility factors and sex determination in hybridizing species of Cottus (Pisces).

Cottus rhenanus and Cottus perifretum have formed hybrid lineages and narrow hybrid zones that can be best explained through the action of natural selection. However, the underlying selective forces as well as their genomic targets are not well understood. This study identifies genomic regions in the parental species that cause hybrid incompatibilities and tests whether these manifest in a sex-specific manner to learn about processes that affect natural hybridization in Cottus. Interspecific F2 crosses were analyzed for 255 markers for genetic mapping and to detect transmission distortion as a sign for genetic incompatibilities. The Cottus map consists of 24 linkage groups with a total length of 1575.4 cM. A male heterogametic (XY) sex determination region was found on different linkage groups in the two parental species. Genetic incompatibilities were incomplete, varied among individuals and populations and were not associated with the heterogametic sex. The variance between populations and individuals makes it unlikely that there are species-specific incompatibility loci that could affect the gene pool of natural hybrids in a simple and predictable way. Conserved synteny with sequenced fish genomes permits to genetically study the Cottus genome through the transfer of genomic information from the model fish species. Homology relationships of candidate genomic regions in Cottus indicate that sex determination is not based on the same genomic regions found in other fish species. This suggests a fast evolutionary turnover of the genetic basis of sex determination that, together with the small size of the heterogametic regions, may contribute to the absence of fitness effects related to the Haldane's rule.