A large-scale assessment of eastern whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferus) occupancy across a gradient of forest management intensity using autonomous recording units.

Conservationists spend considerable resources to create and enhance wildlife habitat. Monitoring how species respond to these efforts helps managers allocate limited resources. However, monitoring efforts often encounter logistical challenges that are exacerbated as geographic extent increases. We used autonomous recording units (ARUs) and automated acoustic classification to mitigate the challenges of assessing Eastern Whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferus) response to forest management across the eastern USA. We deployed 1263 ARUs in forests with varying degrees of management intensity. Recordings were processed using an automated classifier and the resulting detection data were used to assess occupancy. Whip-poor-wills were detected at 401 survey locations. Across our study region, whip-poor-will occupancy decreased with latitude and elevation. At the landscape scale, occupancy decreased with the amount of impervious cover, increased with herbaceous cover and oak and evergreen forests, and exhibited a quadratic relationship with the amount of shrub-scrub cover. At the site-level, occupancy was negatively associated with basal area and brambles (Rubus spp.) and exhibited a quadratic relationship with woody stem density. Implementation of practices that create and sustain a mosaic of forest age classes and a diverse range of canopy closure within oak (Quercus spp.) dominated landscapes will have the highest probability of hosting whip-poor-wills. The use of ARUs and a machine learning classifier helped overcome challenges associated with monitoring a nocturnal species with a short survey window across a large spatial extent. Future monitoring efforts that combine ARU-based protocols and mappable fine-resolution structural vegetation data would likely further advance our understanding of whip-poor-will response to forest management.

Frequent and strong cold-air pooling drives temperate forest composition.

Cold-air pooling is an important topoclimatic process that creates temperature inversions with the coldest air at the lowest elevations. Incomplete understanding of sub-canopy spatiotemporal cold-air pooling dynamics and associated ecological impacts hinders predictions and conservation actions related to climate change and cold-dependent species and functions. To determine if and how cold-air pooling influences forest composition, we characterized the frequency, strength, and temporal dynamics of cold-air pooling in the sub-canopy at local to regional scales in New England, USA. We established a network of 48 plots along elevational transects and continuously measured sub-canopy air temperatures for 6-10 months (depending on site). We then estimated overstory and understory community temperature preferences by surveying tree composition in each plot and combining these data with known species temperature preferences. We found that cold-air pooling was frequent (19-43% seasonal occurrences) and that sites with the most frequent inversions displayed inverted forest composition patterns across slopes with more cold-adapted species, namely conifers, at low instead of high elevations. We also observed both local and regional variability in cold-air pooling dynamics, revealing that while cold-air pooling is common, it is also spatially complex. Our study, which uniquely focused on broad spatial and temporal scales, has revealed some rarely reported cold-air pooling dynamics. For instance, we discovered frequent and strong temperature inversions that occurred across seasons and in some locations were most frequent during the daytime, likely affecting forest composition. Together, our results show that cold-air pooling is a fundamental ecological process that requires integration into modeling efforts predicting future forest vegetation patterns under climate change, as well as greater consideration for conservation strategies identifying potential climate refugia for cold-adapted species.

Wind and small mammals are complementary fungal dispersers.

Following a disturbance, dispersal shapes community composition as well as ecosystem structure and function. For fungi, dispersal is often wind or mammal facilitated, but it is unclear whether these pathways are complementary or redundant in the taxa they disperse and the ecosystem functions they provide. Here, we compare the diversity and morphology of fungi dispersed by wind and three rodent species in recently harvested forests using a combination of microscopy and Illumina sequencing. We demonstrate that fungal communities dispersed by wind and small mammals differ in richness and composition. Most wind-dispersed fungi are wood saprotrophs, litter saprotrophs, and plant pathogens, whereas fungi dispersed in mammal scat are primarily mycorrhizal, soil saprotrophs, and unspecified saprotrophs. We note substantial dispersal of truffles and agaricoid mushrooms by small mammals, and dispersal of agaricoid mushrooms, crusts, and polypores by wind. In addition, we find mammal-dispersed spores are larger than wind-dispersed spores. Our findings suggest that wind- and small-mammal-facilitated dispersal are complementary processes and highlight the role of small mammals in dispersing mycorrhizal fungi, particularly following disturbances such as timber harvest.

Seedbed not rescue effect buffer the role of extreme precipitation on temperate forest regeneration.

Alterations in global climate via extreme precipitation will have broadscale implications on ecosystem functioning. The increased frequency of drought, coupled with heavy, episodic rainfall are likely to generate impacts on biotic and abiotic processes across aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Despite the demonstrated shifts in global precipitation, less is known how extreme precipitation interacts with biophysical factors to control future demographic processes, especially those sensitive to climate extremes such as organismal recruitment and survival. We utilized a field-based precipitation manipulation experiment in 0.1 ha forest canopy openings to test future climate scenarios characterized by extreme precipitation on temperate tree seedling survival. The effects of planting seedbeds (undisturbed leaf litter/organic material vs. scarified, exposed mineral soils), seedling ontogeny, species, and functional traits were examined against four statistically defined precipitation scenarios. Results indicated that seedlings grown within precipitation treatments characterized by heavy, episodic rainfall preceded by prolonged drying responded similarly to drought treatments lacking episodic inputs. Moreover, among all treatment conditions tested, scarified seedbeds most strongly affected seedling survivorship (odds ratio 6.9). Compared with any precipitation treatment, the effect size (predicted probabilities) of the seedbed was more than twice as important in controlling seedling survivorship. However, the interaction between precipitation and seedbed resulted in a 27.9% improvement in survivorship for moisture-sensitive species. Seedling sensitivity to moisture was variable among species, and most closely linked with functional traits such as seed mass. For instance, under dry moisture regimes, survivorship increased linearly with seed mass (log transformed; adjusted R2 = 0.72, p < 0.001), yet no relationship was apparent under wet moisture regimes. Although precipitation influenced survival, extreme rainfall events were not enough to offset moisture deficits nor provide a rescue effect under drought conditions. The relationships reported here highlight the importance of plant seedbeds and species (e.g., functional traits) as edaphic and biotic controls that modify the influence of extreme future precipitation on seedling survival in temperate forests. Finally, we demonstrated the biophysical factors that were most influential to early forest development and that may override the negative effects of increasingly variable precipitation. This work contributes to refinements of species distribution models and can inform reforestation strategies intended to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function under increasing climate extremes.

Carbon conundrums: Do United States' current carbon market baselines represent an undesirable ecological threshold?

Relative frequency distribution of observed annual mortality expressed in aboveground (AG) carbon (C) (Mg CO2 e ha-1 year-1 ) summarized across supersections by forest type [Hardwood (HW) vs. Softwood (SW)] and site class (Low vs. High) based on approximately 130,000 remeasured USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plots across the US. Top panel summarizes conditions in plots that do and do not meet the California Air Resources Board standards based on total basal area, whereas bottom panel summarizes conditions in plots falling inside and outside of optimum relative density levels. The latter represents a biophysically-informed approach accounting for changes in tree (and carbon) packing over forest development.

Cold-air pools as microrefugia for ecosystem functions in the face of climate change.

Cold-air pooling is a global phenomenon that frequently sustains low temperatures in sheltered, low-lying depressions and valleys and drives other key environmental conditions, such as soil temperature, soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit, frost frequency, and winter dynamics. Local climate patterns in areas prone to cold-air pooling are partly decoupled from regional climates and thus may be buffered from macroscale climate change. There is compelling evidence from studies across the globe that cold-air pooling impacts plant communities and species distributions, making these decoupled microclimate areas potentially important microrefugia for species under climate warming. Despite interest in the potential for cold-air pools to enable species persistence under warming, studies investigating the effects of cold-air pooling on ecosystem processes are scarce. Because local temperatures and vegetation composition are critical drivers of ecosystem processes like carbon cycling and storage, cold-air pooling may also act to preserve ecosystem functions. We review research exploring the ecological impacts of cold-air pooling with a focus on vegetation, and then present a new conceptual framework in which cold-air pooling creates feedbacks between species and ecosystem properties that generate unique hotspots for carbon accrual in some systems relative to areas more vulnerable to regional climate change impacts. Finally, we describe key steps to motivate future research investigating the potential for cold-air pools to serve as microrefugia for ecosystem functions under climate change.

Removal of invasive Scotch broom increases its negative effects on soil chemistry and plant communities.

Recovery of ecosystem properties following removal of invasive plants likely varies with characteristics of the plant and the relative soil quality at a given site. These factors may influence the occurrence of soil legacies and secondary invasions, hindering the effectiveness of restoration strategies. We assessed the potential for ecosystem recovery following removal of N-fixing Scotch broom for 4 years at two sites that contrasted strongly in soil quality in western Washington and Oregon, USA. Comparisons were made among plots, where Scotch broom was never present (uninvaded), retained, or removed. Scotch broom removal increased PAR and soil temperature but had limited effects on soil moisture. Concentrations of soil Ca, Mg, K, and P were significantly lower with Scotch broom removal, with the effect being most pronounced at the low-quality site. NMS ordinations indicated that the treatments differed in vegetation composition, with limited recovery following broom removal. Non-native and native species varied inversely in their abundance responses, where non-native species abundance was greatest in the removal treatment, intermediate in the retained treatment, and lowest in the uninvaded treatment, indicating occurrence of a secondary invasion following removal. As with the soil response, effects were more pronounced at the low-quality site. Our findings indicate that Scotch broom removal exacerbates negative effects on soil chemistry and plant communities, with little evidence of recovery over our study period. These findings highlight the importance of controlling Scotch broom invasions immediately after the species establishes, especially on low-quality sites that are more susceptible to Scotch broom invasion.

Forest density intensifies the importance of snowpack to growth in water-limited pine forests.

Warming climate and resulting declines in seasonal snowpack have been associated with drought stress and tree mortality in seasonally snow-covered watersheds worldwide. Meanwhile, increasing forest density has further exacerbated drought stress due to intensified tree-tree competition. Using a uniquely detailed data set of population-level forest growth (n = 2,495 sampled trees), we examined how inter-annual variability in growth relates to snow volume across a range of forest densities (e.g., competitive environments) in sites spanning a broad aridity gradient across the United States. Forest growth was positively related to snowpack in water-limited forests located at low latitude, and this relationship was intensified by forest density. However, forest growth was negatively related to snowpack in a higher latitude more energy-limited forest, and this relationship did not interact with forest density. Future reductions in snowpack may have contrasting consequences, as growth may respond positively in energy-limited forests and negatively in water-limited forests; however, these declines may be mitigated by reducing stand density through forest thinning.

Retention forestry influences understory diversity and functional identity.

In recent decades, a paradigm shift in forest management and associated policies has led to greater emphasis on harvest practices that retain mature, overstory trees in forest stands that would otherwise be clear-cut. While it is often assumed that the maintenance of compositional and structural complexity, such as that achieved through retention forestry approaches, will also mitigate negative impacts to functional diversity, empirical evidence of this relationship is sparse. We examined the effects of an aggregated retention system on taxonomic and functional diversity in a regenerating aspen-dominated forest. Sampling was conducted along transects arranged to capture the transition from harvested (regenerating) forest to mature, unharvested forest (both intact forest stands and 0.1 ha retention aggregates). We then assessed the magnitude and distance of edge effects on multiple indices of taxonomic and functional diversity as well as functional identity. Twelve years after harvest, the distance and magnitude of edge effects on functional and taxonomic diversity did not differ between the two unharvested patch sizes (intact vs. aggregate); however, intact forest exhibited greater resistance to edge effects and greater depth of edge influence into harvested areas for some traits compared to aggregates. Analyses relying on functional traits were generally applicable across sites within a highly variable forest type, and our results demonstrate the promise of using functional traits to assess management impacts on plant diversity across a landscape. Aggregates maintained some functional attributes associated with interior forest and influenced adjacent regeneration. However, trends in some traits (i.e., shade tolerance and seed mass), particularly in the seedling layer, suggest aggregates of this size provide primarily edge habitat.

Assessing the ecological impacts of biomass harvesting along a disturbance severity gradient.

Disturbance is a central driver of forest development and ecosystem processes with variable effects within and across ecosystems. Despite the high levels of variation in disturbance severity often observed in forests following natural and anthropogenic disturbance, studies quantifying disturbance impacts often rely on categorical classifications, thus limiting opportunities to examine potential gradients in ecosystem response to a given disturbance or management regime. Given the potential increases in disturbance severity associated with global change, as well as shifts in management regimes related to procurement of biofuel feedstocks, there is an increasing need to quantitatively describe disturbance severity and associated responses of forest development, soil processes, and structural conditions. This study took advantage of two replicated large-scale studies of forest biomass harvesting in Populus tremuloides and Pinus bansksiana forests, respectively, to develop and test the utility of a continuous, quantitative, disturbance severity index (DSI) for describing postharvest response of plant communities and nutrient pools to different levels of biomass removal and legacy retention (i.e., live trees and coarse woody material). There was a high degree of variability in DSI within categorical treatments associated with different levels of legacy retention and regression models using DSI as a predictor explained a portion of the variation (>50%) for many of the ecosystem- and community-level responses to biomass harvesting examined. Nutrient losses associated with biomass harvesting were positively related to disturbance severity, particularly in P. tremuloides forests, with postharvest nutrient availability generally declining along the gradient of impacts. Consistent with expectations from ecological theory, species richness and diversity of woody plant communities were greatest at intermediate disturbance severities and regeneration densities of dominant trees species were most abundant at highest levels of disturbance. Although categorical benchmarks will continue to be the primary way through which management guidelines are conveyed to practitioners, evaluation of their effectiveness at sustaining ecosystem functioning should be through continuous analyses, such as the DSI approach used in this study, to allow for the more precise identification of thresholds that ensure a range of desirable outcomes exist across managed landscapes.

Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome.

Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001-2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions across the globe. Disturbances in protected areas are smaller and more complex in shape compared to their surroundings affected by human land use. This signal disappears in areas with high recent natural disturbance activity, underlining the potential of climate-mediated disturbance to transform forest landscapes.

Forested versus herbaceous wetlands: Can management mitigate ecohydrologic regime shifts from invasive emerald ash borer?

Wetlands self-organize through reciprocal controls between vegetation and hydrology, but external disturbance may disrupt these feedbacks with consequent changes to ecosystem state. Imminent and widespread emerald ash borer (EAB) infestation throughout North American forested wetlands has raised concern over possible ecosystem state shifts (i.e., wetter, more herbaceous systems) and loss of forest function, calling for informed landscape-scale management strategies. In response, we employed a large-scale manipulative study to assess the ecohydrologic response of black ash wetlands to three alternative EAB management strategies: 1) a do-nothing approach (i.e., simulated EAB infestation via tree girdling), 2) a preemptive, complete harvesting approach (i.e., clearcut), and 3) an overstory replacement approach via group selection. We analyzed six years of daily water table and evapotranspiration (ET) dynamics in six blocks comprising black ash wetlands (controls) and management strategy treatments to quantify potential for hydrologic change and subsequent recovery. In both the do-nothing approach and complete harvesting approach, we found persistent changes in hydrologic regime defined by shallower water tables and lower ET rates coupled with increased herbaceous vegetation growth, indicating ecosystem state shifts driven by vegetation-water table interactions. The do-nothing approach showed the least hydrologic recovery after five years, which we attribute to reduction in overstory transpiration as well as greater shade (via standing dead trees) that reduces open water evaporation and herbaceous layer transpiration compared to complete harvesting. We found no evidence of ecohydrologic disturbance in the overstory replacement approach, highlighting its potential as a management strategy to preserve forested wetland habitat if periodically executed over time before EAB infestation. Although the scale of potential disturbance is daunting, our findings provide a baseline assessment for forest managers to develop preemptive mitigation strategies to address the threat of EAB to ecological functions in black ash wetlands.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.

Threats to North American forests from southern pine beetle with warming winters.

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to ease range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects1-5. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change6. Here we present projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption of local ecosystem services7, shifts in forest structure8, and threats to native biodiversity9.

Long-term structural and biomass dynamics of virgin Tsuga canadensis-Pinus strobus forests after hurricane disturbance.

The development of old-growth forests in northeastern North America has largely been within the context of gap-scale disturbances given the rarity of stand-replacing disturbances. Using the 10-ha old-growth Harvard Tract and its associated 90-year history of measurements, including detailed surveys in 1989 and 2009, we document the long-term structural and biomass development of an old-growth Tsuga canadensis-Pinus strobus forest in southern New Hampshire, USA following a stand-replacing hurricane in 1938. Measurements of aboveground biomass pools were integrated with data from second- and old-growth T. canadensis forests to evaluate long-term patterns in biomass development following this disturbance. Ecosystem structure across the Tract prior to the hurricane exhibited a high degree of spatial heterogeneity with the greatest levels of live tree basal area (70-129 m2 /ha) on upper west-facing slopes where P. strobus was dominant and intermixed with T. canadensis. Live-tree biomass estimates for these stratified mixtures ranged from 159 to 503 Mg/ha at the localized, plot scale (100 m2 ) and averaged 367 Mg/ha across these portions of the landscape approaching the upper bounds for eastern forests. Live-tree biomass 71 years after the hurricane is more uniform and lower in magnitude, with T. canadensis currently the dominant overstory tree species throughout much of the landscape. Despite only one living P. strobus stem in the 2009 plots (and fewer than five stems known across the entire 10-ha area), the detrital legacy of this species is pronounced with localized accumulations of coarse woody debris exceeding 237.7-404.2 m3 /ha where this species once dominated the canopy. These patterns underscore the great sizes P. strobus attained in pre-European landscapes and its great decay resistance relative to its forest associates. Total aboveground biomass pools in this 71-year-old forest (255 Mg/ha) are comparable to those in modern old-growth ecosystems in the region that also lack abundant white pine. Results highlight the importance of disturbance legacies in affecting forest structural conditions over extended periods following stand-replacing events and underscore that post-disturbance salvage logging can alter ecosystem development for decades. Moreover, the dominant role of old-growth P. strobus in live and detrital biomass pools before and after the hurricane, respectively, demonstrate the disproportionate influence this species likely had on carbon storage at localized scales prior to the widespread, selective harvesting of large P. strobus across the region in the 18th and 19th centuries.

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States.

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: Is tree size, age, competition, or climate response most important?

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2 and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests' ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals' size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92-95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone.

Comparisons of allometric and climate-derived estimates of tree coarse root carbon stocks in forests of the United States.

BACKGROUND: Refined estimation of carbon (C) stocks within forest ecosystems is a critical component of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of projected climate change through forest C management. Specifically, belowground C stocks are currently estimated in the United States' national greenhouse gas inventory (US NGHGI) using nationally consistent species- and diameter-specific equations applied to individual trees. Recent scientific evidence has pointed to the importance of climate as a driver of belowground C stocks. This study estimates belowground C using current methods applied in the US NGHGI and describes a new approach for merging both allometric models with climate-derived predictions of belowground C stocks. RESULTS: Climate-adjusted predictions were variable depending on the region and forest type of interest, but represented an increase of 368.87 Tg of belowground C across the US, or a 6.4 % increase when compared to currently-implemented NGHGI estimates. Random forests regressions indicated that aboveground biomass, stand age, and stand origin (i.e., planted versus artificial regeneration) were useful predictors of belowground C stocks. Decreases in belowground C stocks were modeled after projecting mean annual temperatures at various locations throughout the US up to year 2090. CONCLUSIONS: By combining allometric equations with trends in temperature, we conclude that climate variables can be used to adjust the US NGHGI estimates of belowground C stocks. Such strategies can be used to determine the effects of future global change scenarios within a C accounting framework.

Montane forest ecotones moved downslope in northeastern USA in spite of warming between 1984 and 2011.

Ecotones are transition zones that form, in forests, where distinct forest types meet across a climatic gradient. In mountains, ecotones are compressed and act as potential harbingers of species shifts that accompany climate change. As the climate warms in New England, USA, high-elevation boreal forests are expected to recede upslope, with northern hardwood species moving up behind. Yet recent empirical studies present conflicting findings on this dynamic, reporting both rapid upward ecotonal shifts and concurrent increases in boreal species within the region. These discrepancies may result from the limited spatial extent of observations. We developed a method to model and map the montane forest ecotone using Landsat imagery to observe change at scales not possible for plot-based studies, covering mountain peaks over 39 000 km(2) . Our results show that ecotones shifted downward or stayed stable on most mountains between 1991 and 2010, but also shifted upward in some cases (13-15% slopes). On average, upper ecotone boundaries moved down -1.5 m yr(-1) in the Green Mountains, VT, and -1.3 m yr(-1) in the White Mountains, NH. These changes agree with remeasured forest inventory data from Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH, and suggest that processes of boreal forest recovery from prior red spruce decline, or human land use and disturbance, may swamp out any signal of climate-mediated migration in this ecosystem. This approach represents a powerful framework for evaluating similar ecotonal dynamics in other mountainous regions of the globe.