Volcanic soil gas 4He/CO2 ratio: a useful geochemical tool for real-time eruption forecasting.

At many dormant volcanoes, magmatic gases are not channeled through preferential degassing routes as fumaroles and only percolate through the flanks of the volcano in a diffuse way. This type of volcanic gas emission provides valuable information, even though the soil matrix contains an important atmospheric component. This study aimed to demonstrate that chemical ratios such as He/CO2 in soil gases provide excellent information on the evolution of volcanic unrest episodes and help forecast the volcanic eruption onset. Before and during the occurrence of the October 2011-March 2012 submarine of El Hierro, Canary Islands, more than 8500 soil He analyses and diffuse CO2 emission measurements were performed. The results show that the soil He/CO2 emission ratio began increasing drastically one month before eruption onset, reaching the maximum value 10 days before. During the eruptive period, this ratio also showed a maximum value several days before the period with the highest magma emission rate. The He/CO2 ratio was also helpful in forecasting the eruption onset. We demonstrate that this tool can be applied in real-time during volcanic emergencies. Our results also encourage a reevaluation of the global He emission from the subaerial volcanism.

Toward a near real-time magma ascent monitoring by combined fluid inclusion barometry and ongoing seismicity.

Fluid inclusion microthermometry on olivines, clinopyroxenes, and amphiboles was used during a volcanic eruption, in combination with real-time seismic data and rapid petrographic observations, for petrological monitoring purposes. By applying this approach to the study of 18 volcanic samples collected during the eruption of Tajogaite volcano on La Palma Island (Canary Islands) in 2021, changes in the magma system were identified over time and space. Magma batches with distinct petrographic and geochemical characteristics emerged from source zones whose depth progressively increased from 27 to 31 kilometers. The rise of magma of deeper origin is attested by fluid inclusions made of N2 and CO, markers of mantle outgassing. Magma accumulation occurred over different durations at depths of 22 to 27 and 4 to 16 kilometers. Time-integrated magma ascent velocities (including ponding times) were estimated at between 0.01 and 0.1 meters per second. This method is cost-effective and quickly identifies changes in the magma system during an eruption, enhancing petrological monitoring procedures.

Geodetic imaging of magma ascent through a bent and twisted dike during the Tajogaite eruption of 2021 (La Palma, Canary Islands).

On Sept. 19th, 2021, the largest historical eruption on the island of La Palma began, which had a significant scientific, social, and economic impact. The 2021 Tajogaite eruption was characterised by short precursors, lasting only 8 days. The seismicity started on Sept. 11th with a westward and upward migration of hypocenters. Permanent GNSS stations started recording deformation on Sept. 12th on the island's western side, which reached more than 15 cm just before the eruption. After the eruption onset, the ground deformation increased, reaching a maximum on Sept. 22nd and showing a nearly steady deflation trend in the following months. To better understand the dynamics of the eruption, we exploited a joint dataset of GNSS and Sentinel-1 SBAS time series along both ascending and descending orbits. To obtain the geometry of the causative source of the ground deformation, we combined the result of a preliminary non-linear inversion and the precise location of the seismicity. The resulting geometry of the source is that of a twisted dike bending eastward. We performed inverse modelling to obtain the spatiotemporal kinematics of the opening function of the dike. The forward modelling has been realised using a 3D finite-element approach considering the island's topography. Our findings reveal a close correspondence between the magmatic intrusion and pre-eruptive seismicity. The ascent of the magma occurred along two branches, and the rheology of a previously identified ductile layer strongly affected the magma propagation process. Finally, we found evidence of an early shallow deformation, which we interpret as the effect of ascending hydrothermal fluids. Our findings highlight the need for advanced modelling to understand pre-eruptive processes in basaltic volcanoes.

Geothermal and structural features of La Palma island (Canary Islands) imaged by ambient noise tomography.

La Palma island is located in the NW of the Canary Islands and is one of the most volcanically active of the archipelago, therefore the existence of geothermal resources on the island is highly probable. The main objective of this work is to detect velocity anomalies potentially related to active geothermal reservoirs on La Palma island, by achieving a high-resolution seismic velocity model of the first few kilometres of the crust using Ambient Noise Tomography (ANT). The obtained ANT model is merged with a recent local earthquake tomography model. Our findings reveal two high-velocity zones in the island's northern and southern parts, that could be related to a plutonic intrusion and old oceanic crust materials. Conversely, four low-velocity zones are imaged in the southern part of the island. Two of them can be related to hydrothermal alteration zones located beneath the Cumbre Vieja volcanic complex. This hypothesis is reinforced by comparing the S-wave velocity model with the seismicity recorded during the pre-eruptive phase of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption, which revealed an aseismic volume coinciding with these low-velocity zones. Another low-velocity zone is observed in the southern part of the island, which we interpret as highly fractured rocks which could favour the ascent of hot fluids. A last low-velocity zone is observed in the central part of the island and associated with loose deposits generated by the Aridane valley mega landslide.

Spatio-temporal velocity variations observed during the pre-eruptive episode of La Palma 2021 eruption inferred from ambient noise interferometry.

On Sept. 19th, 2021, a volcanic eruption began on the island of La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain). The pre-eruptive episode was characterized by seismicity and ground deformation that started only 9.5 days before the eruption. In this study, we applied seismic interferometry to the data recorded by six broadband seismic stations, allowing us to estimate velocity variations during the weeks preceding the eruption. About 9.5 days before the eruption, we observed a reduction in the seismic velocities is registered next to the eruptive centers that opened later. Furthermore, this zone overlaps with the epicenters of a cluster of volcano-tectonic earthquakes located at shallow depth (< 4 km) and detached from the main cluster of deeper seismicity. We interpret the decrease in seismic velocities and the occurrence of such a shallow earthquake cluster as the effect of hydrothermal fluid released by the ascending magma batch and reaching the surface faster than the magma itself.

Elastic interaction between Mauna Loa and Kilauea evidenced by independent component analysis.

The contrasting dynamics between Mauna Loa and Kilauea have been studied over the last 100 years from multiple viewpoints. The fact that dynamic changes of one volcano trigger a dynamic response of the other volcano indicates a connection may exist. Petrological works show a direct relationship between the magmatic systems of these two volcanoes is not possible. We analysed DInSAR data and GPS measurements of ground deformation patterns associated with the activity of Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes. The DInSAR SBAS dataset spans the interval between 2003 and 2010, and was acquired along ascending and descending orbits of the ENVISAT (ESA) satellite under different look angles. Of the 10 tracks that cover the Big Island (Hawai'i), 4 cover both volcanic edifices. Using GPS measurements, we computed the areal strain on 15 triplets of stations for Kilauea volcano and 11 for Mauna Loa volcano. DInSAR data was analysed by applying Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to decompose the time-varying ground deformation pattern of both volcanoes. The results revealed anticorrelated ground deformation behaviour of the main calderas of Mauna Loa and Kilauea, meaning that the opposite response is seen in the ground deformation of one volcano with respect to the other. At the same time, Kilauea exhibits a more complex pattern, with an additional component, which appears not to be correlated with the dynamics of Mauna Loa. The GPS areal strain time series support these findings. To corroborate and help interpret the results, we performed inverse modelling of the observed ground deformation pattern using analytical source models. The results indicate that the ground deformation of Mauna Loa is associated with a dike-shaped source located at 6.2 km depth. In comparison, the anticorrelated ground deformation of Kilauea is associated with a volumetric source at 1.2 km depth. This excludes a hydraulic connection as a possible mechanism to explain the anticorrelated behaviour; instead, we postulate a stress-transfer mechanism. To support this hypothesis, we performed a 3D numerical modelling of stress and strain fields in the study area, determining the elastic interaction of each source over the others. The most relevant finding is that the Mauna Loa shallow plumbing system can affect the shallowest magmatic reservoir of Kilauea, while the opposite scenario is unlikely. Conversely, the second independent component observed at Kilauea is associated to a sill-shaped source located at a depth of 3.5 km, which is less affected by this interaction process.

Rapid magma ascent beneath La Palma revealed by seismic tomography.

For the first time, we obtained high-resolution images of Earth's interior of the La Palma volcanic eruption that occurred in 2021 derived during the eruptive process. We present evidence of a rapid magmatic rise from the base of the oceanic crust under the island to produce an eruption that was active for 85 days. This eruption is interpreted as a very accelerated and energetic process. We used data from 11,349 earthquakes to perform travel-time seismic tomography. We present high-precision earthquake relocations and 3D distributions of P and S-wave velocities highlighting the geometry of magma sources. We identified three distinct structures: (1) a shallow localised region (< 3 km) of hydrothermal alteration; (2) spatially extensive, consolidated, oceanic crust extending to 10 km depth and; (3) a large sub-crustal magma-filled rock volume intrusion extending from 7 to 25 km depth. Our results suggest that this large magma reservoir feeds the La Palma eruption continuously. Prior to eruption onset, magma ascended from 10 km depth to the surface in less than 7 days. In the upper 3 km, melt migration is along the western contact between consolidated oceanic crust and altered hydrothermal material.

High-resolution Digital Surface Model of the 2021 eruption deposit of Cumbre Vieja volcano, La Palma, Spain.

Identifying accurate topographic variations associated with volcanic eruptions plays a key role in obtaining information on eruptive parameters, volcano structure, input data for volcano processes modelling, and civil protection and recovery actions. The 2021 eruption of Cumbre Vieja volcano is the largest eruptive event in the recorded history for La Palma Island. Over the course of almost 3 months, the volcano produced profound morphological changes in the landscape affecting both the natural and the anthropic environment over an area of tens of km2. We present the results of a UAS (Unoccupied Aircraft System) survey consisting of >12,000 photographs coupled with Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry that allowed us to produce a very-high-resolution (0.2 m/pixel) Digital Surface Model (DSM). We characterised the surface topography of the newly formed volcanic landforms and produced an elevation difference map by differencing our survey and a pre-event surface, identifying morphological changes in detail. The present DSM, the first one with such a high resolution to our knowledge, represents a relevant contribution to both the scientific community and the local authorities.

Magma injection beneath the urban area of Naples: a new mechanism for the 2012-2013 volcanic unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera.

We found the first evidence, in the last 30 years, of a renewed magmatic activity at Campi Flegrei caldera from January 2012 to June 2013. The ground deformation, observed through satellite interferometry and GPS measurements, have been interpreted as the effect of the intrusion at shallow depth (3090 ± 138 m) of 0.0042 ± 0.0002 km(3) of magma within a sill. This interrupts about 28 years of dominant hydrothermal activity and occurs in the context of an unrest phase which began in 2005 and within a more general ground uplift that goes on since 1950. This discovery has implications on the evaluation of the volcanic risk and in the volcanic surveillance of this densely populated area.

Petrological and seismic precursors of the paroxysmal phase of the last Vesuvius eruption on March 1944.

Abrupt transitions in style and intensity are common during volcanic eruptions, with an immediate impact on the surrounding territory and its population. Defining the factors trigger such sudden shifts in the eruptive behavior as well as developing methods to predict such changes during volcanic crises are crucial goals in volcanology. In our research, the combined investigation of both petrological and seismic indicators has been applied for the first time to a Vesuvius eruption, that of March 1944 that caused the present dormant state of the volcano. Our results contribute to elucidate the evolution of the conduit dynamics that generated a drastic increase in the Volcanic Explosivity Index, associated to the ejection of huge amount of volcanic ash. Remarkably, our study shows that the main paroxysm was announced by robust changes in petrology consistent with seismology, thus suggesting that the development of monitoring methods to assess the nature of ejected juvenile material combined with conventional geophysical techniques can represent a powerful tool for forecasting the evolution of an eruption towards violent behavior. This in turn is a major goal in volcanology because this evidence can help decision-makers to implement an efficient safety strategy during the emergency (scale and pace of evacuation).