ABSTRACT
Background: Non-invasive prediction of significant liver fibrosis and gastro-esophageal varices during mass treatment for HCV is crucial.The aim is to validate the accuracy of FIB-4 & APRI for predicting significant fibrosis in chronic HCV patients during mass treatment with directly acting anti-viral agents (DAAs) & their validity for predicting varices.Methods: We did a search in a database of 21,617 patients with chronic HCV infection recruited to one of the national HCV treatment centers to find out those with fibrosis assessment by recent liver biopsies &/or liver stiffness to serve as a gold standard. The diagnostic accuracy of FIB-4 and APRI values were assessed against the gold standard. Demographics and relevant laboratory data of 3144 patients (14.5%) were retrieved.Results: Significant fibrosis (F3-F4) was detected in 1585 (50.4%). AUROCs for detecting significant fibrosis (F3-F4) were 0.76 (0.75-0.78) for FIB-4 and 0.72 (0.72-0.75) for APRI. To diagnose liver cirrhosis, AUROCs were higher; 0.82 (0.80-0.83) for FIB-4 and 0.78 (0.76-0.79) for APRI, p < 0.001. Prediction of gastro-oesophageal varices; AUROC for FIB-4 and APRI, were 0.65 and 0.62 respectively.Conclusion: FIB-4 and APRI are reliable methods in predicting cirrhosis during mass HCV treatment. Their role in predicting gastro-oesophageal varices is less remarkable.
