Using orthopaedic health care resources efficiently: A cost analysis of day surgery for unicompartmental knee replacement.

BACKGROUND: Day surgery for unicompartmental knee replacement (UKR) could potentially reduce hospital costs. We aimed to measure the impact of introducing a day surgery UKR pathway on mean length of stay (LOS) and costs for the UK NHS, compared to an accelerated inpatient pathway. Secondly, the study aimed to compare the magnitude of costs using three costing approaches: top-down costing; simple micro-costing; and real-world costing. METHODS: We conducted an observational, before-and-after study of 2,111 UKR patients at one NHS hospital: 1,094 patients followed the day surgery pathway between September 2017 and February 2020; and 1,017 patients followed the accelerated inpatient pathway between September 2013 and February 2016. Top-down costs were estimated using Average NHS Costs. Simple micro-costing used the cost per bed-day. Real-world costs for this centre were estimated by costing actual changes in staffing levels. RESULTS: 532 (48.5%) patients in the day surgery pathway were discharged on the day of surgery compared with 36 (3.5%) patients in the accelerated inpatient pathway. The day surgery pathway reduced the mean LOS by 2.2 (95% CI: 1.81, 2.53) nights and was associated with an 18% decrease in Average NHS Costs (p < 0.001). Mean savings were £1,429 per patient with the Average NHS Costs approach, £905 per patient with the micro-costing approach, and £577 per patient with the "real-world" costing approach. Overall, moving NHS UKR surgeries to a day surgery pathway could save the NHS £8,659,740 per year. CONCLUSION: Day surgery for UKR could produce substantial cost savings for hospitals and the NHS.

Estimating Risk Factor Time Paths Among People with Type 2 Diabetes and QALY Gains from Risk Factor Management.

OBJECTIVES: Most type 2 diabetes simulation models utilise equations mapping out lifetime trajectories of risk factors [e.g. glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c)]. Existing equations, using historic data or assuming constant risk factors, frequently underestimate or overestimate complication rates. Updated risk factor time path equations are needed for simulation models to more accurately predict complication rates. AIMS: (1) Update United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model (UKPDS-OM2) risk factor time path equations; (2) compare quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) using original and updated equations; and (3) compare QALY gains for reference case simulations using different risk factor equations. METHODS: Using pooled contemporary data from two randomised trials EXSCEL and TECOS (n = 28,608), we estimated: dynamic panel models of seven continuous risk factors (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, HbA1c, haemoglobin, heart rate, blood pressure and body mass index); two-step models of estimated glomerular filtration rate; and survival analyses of peripheral arterial disease, atrial fibrillation and albuminuria. UKPDS-OM2-derived lifetime QALYs were extrapolated over 70 years using historical and the new risk factor equations. RESULTS: All new risk factor equation predictions were within 95% confidence intervals of observed values, displaying good agreement between observed and estimated values. Historical risk factor time path equations predicted trial participants would accrue 9.84 QALYs, increasing to 10.98 QALYs using contemporary equations. DISCUSSION: Incorporating updated risk factor time path equations into diabetes simulation models could give more accurate predictions of long-term health, costs, QALYs and cost-effectiveness estimates, as well as a more precise understanding of the impact of diabetes on patients' health, expenditure and quality of life. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01144338 and NCT00790205.

Stereotactic radiotherapy for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (STAR): a pivotal, randomised, double-masked, sham-controlled device trial.

BACKGROUND: Neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) is a leading cause of blindness. The first-line therapy is anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) agents delivered by intravitreal injection. Ionising radiation mitigates key pathogenic processes underlying nAMD, and therefore has therapeutic potential. STAR aimed to assess whether stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) reduces the number of anti-VEGF injections required, without sacrificing visual acuity. METHODS: This pivotal, randomised, double-masked, sham-controlled trial enrolled participants with pretreated chronic active nAMD from 30 UK hospitals. Participants were randomly allocated in a 2:1 ratio to 16-Gray (Gy) SRT delivered using a robotically controlled device or sham SRT, stratified by treatment centre. Eligible participants were aged 50 years or older and had chronic active nAMD, with at least three previous anti-VEGF injections, including at least one in the last 4 months. Participants and all trial and image reading centre staff were masked to treatment allocation, except one unmasked statistician. The primary outcome was the number of intravitreal ranibizumab injections required over 2 years, tested for superiority (fewer injections). The main secondary outcome was Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study visual acuity at two years, tested for non-inferiority (five-letter margin). The primary analysis used the intention-to-treat principle, and safety was analysed per-protocol on participants with available data. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02243878) and is closed for recruitment. FINDINGS: 411 participants enrolled between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 27, 2019, and 274 were randomly allocated to the 16-Gy SRT group and 137 to the sham SRT group. 240 (58%) of all participants were female, and 171 (42%) of all participants were male. 241 participants in the 16-Gy SRT group and 118 participants in the sham group were included in the final analysis, and 409 patients were treated and formed the safety population, of whom two patients allocated to sham treatment erroneously received 16-Gy SRT. The SRT group received a mean of 10·7 injections (SD 6·3) over 2 years versus 13·3 injections (5·8) with sham, a reduction of 2·9 injections after adjusting for treatment centre (95% CI -4·2 to -1·6, p<0·0001). The SRT group best-corrected visual acuity change was non-inferior to sham (adjusted mean letter loss difference between groups, -1·7 letters [95% CI -4·2 to 0·8]). Adverse event rates were similar across groups, but reading centre-detected microvascular abnormalities occurred in 77 SRT-treated eyes (35%) and 13 (12%) sham-treated eyes. Overall, eyes with microvascular abnormalities tended to have better best-corrected visual acuity than those without. Fewer ranibizumab injections offset the cost of SRT, saving a mean of £565 per participant (95% CI -332 to 1483). INTERPRETATION: SRT can reduce ranibizumab treatment burden without compromising vision. FUNDING: Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health and Care Research Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation Programme.

Co-aggregation with Apolipoprotein E modulates the function of Amyloid-ß in Alzheimer's disease.

Which isoforms of apolipoprotein E (apoE) we inherit determine our risk of developing late-onset Alzheimer's Disease (AD), but the mechanism underlying this link is poorly understood. In particular, the relevance of direct interactions between apoE and amyloid-ß (Aß) remains controversial. Here, single-molecule imaging shows that all isoforms of apoE associate with Aß in the early stages of aggregation and then fall away as fibrillation happens. ApoE-Aß co-aggregates account for ~50% of the mass of diffusible Aß aggregates detected in the frontal cortices of homozygotes with the higher-risk APOE4 gene. We show how dynamic interactions between apoE and Aß tune disease-related functions of Aß aggregates throughout the course of aggregation. Our results connect inherited APOE genotype with the risk of developing AD by demonstrating how, in an isoform- and lipidation-specific way, apoE modulates the aggregation, clearance and toxicity of Aß. Selectively removing non-lipidated apoE4-Aß co-aggregates enhances clearance of toxic Aß by glial cells, and reduces secretion of inflammatory markers and membrane damage, demonstrating a clear path to AD therapeutics.

Radiological outcomes following surgical fixation with wires versus moulded cast for patients with a dorsally displaced fracture of the distal radius: a radiographic analysis from the DRAFFT2 trial.

Aims: The primary aim of this study was to report the radiological outcomes of patients with a dorsally displaced distal radius fracture who were randomized to a moulded cast or surgical fixation with wires following manipulation and closed reduction of their fracture. The secondary aim was to correlate radiological outcomes with patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in the year following injury. Methods: Participants were recruited as part of DRAFFT2, a UK multicentre clinical trial. Participants were aged 16 years or over with a dorsally displaced distal radius fracture, and were eligible for the trial if they needed a manipulation of their fracture, as recommended by their treating surgeon. Participants were randomly allocated on a 1:1 ratio to moulded cast or Kirschner wires after manipulation of the fracture in the operating theatre. Standard posteroanterior and lateral radiographs were performed in the radiology department of participating centres at the time of the patient's initial assessment in the emergency department and six weeks postoperatively. Intraoperative fluoroscopic images taken at the time of fracture reduction were also assessed. Results: Patients treated with surgical fixation with wires had less dorsal angulation of the radius versus those treated in a moulded cast at six weeks after manipulation of the fracture; the mean difference of -4.13° was statistically significant (95% confidence interval 5.82 to -2.45). There was no evidence of a difference in radial shortening. However, there was no correlation between these radiological measurements and PROMs at any timepoint in the 12 months post-injury. Conclusion: For patients with a dorsally displaced distal radius fracture treated with a closed manipulation, surgical fixation with wires leads to less dorsal angulation on radiographs at six weeks compared with patients treated in a moulded plaster cast alone. However, the difference in dorsal angulation was small and did not correlate with patient-reported pain and function.

Rationing in an Era of Multiple Tight Constraints: Is Cost-Utility Analysis Still Fit for Purpose?

Cost-utility analysis may not be sufficient to support reimbursement decisions when the assessed health intervention requires a large proportion of the healthcare budget or when the monetary healthcare budget is not the only resource constraint. Such cases include joint replacement, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) interventions and settings where all resources are constrained (e.g. post-COVID-19 or in low/middle-income countries). Using literature on health technology assessment, rationing and reimbursement in healthcare, we identified seven alternative frameworks for simultaneous decisions about (dis)investment and proposed modifications to deal with multiple resource constraints. These frameworks comprised constrained optimisation; cost-effectiveness league table; 'step-in-the-right-direction' approach; heuristics based on effective gradients; weighted cost-effectiveness ratios; multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA); and programme budgeting and marginal analysis (PBMA). We used numerical examples to demonstrate how five of these alternative frameworks would operate. The modified frameworks we propose could be used in local commissioning and/or health technology assessment to supplement standard cost-utility analysis for interventions that have large budget impact and/or are subject to additional constraints.

Health poverty among people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Malaysia.

In the context of the escalating burden of diabetes in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is a pressing concern about the widening disparities in care and outcomes across socioeconomic groups. This paper estimates health poverty measures among individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Malaysia. Using data from the National Diabetes Registry between 2009 and 2018, the study linked 932,855 people with T2DM aged 40-75 to death records. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the 5-year survival probabilities for each patient, stratified by age and sex, while controlling for comorbidities and area-based indicators of socio-economic status (SES), such as district-level asset-based indices and night-time luminosity. Measures of health poverty, based on the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) measures, were employed to capture excessive risk of premature mortality. Two poverty line thresholds were used, namely a 5% and 10% reduction in survival probability compared to age and sex-adjusted survival probability of the general population. Counterfactual simulations estimated the extent to which comorbidities contribute to health poverty. 43.5% of the sample experienced health poverty using the 5% threshold, and 8.9% were health poor using the 10% threshold. Comorbidities contribute 2.9% for males and 5.4% for females, at the 5% threshold. At the 10% threshold, they contribute 7.4% for males and 3.4% for females. If all patients lived in areas of highest night-light intensity, poverty would fall by 5.8% for males and 4.6% for females at the 5% threshold, and 4.1% for males and 0.8% for females at the 10% threshold. In Malaysia, there is a high incidence of health poverty among people with diabetes, and it is strongly associated with comorbidities and area-based measures of SES. Expanding the application of health poverty measurement, through a combination of clinical registries and open spatial data, can facilitate simulations for health poverty alleviation.

Trends in all-cause mortality among adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes in West Malaysia: 2010 - 2019.

AIMS: We determined 10-year all-cause mortality trends in diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) population in West Malaysia, a middle-income country in the Western-Pacific region. METHODS: One million T2D people aged 40-79 registered in the National Diabetes Registry (2009-2018) were linked to death records (censored on 31 December 2019). Standardized absolute mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated relative to the Malaysian general population, and standardized to the 2019 registry population with respect to sex, age group, and disease duration. RESULTS: Overall all-cause standardized mortality rates were unchanged in both sexes. Rates increased in males aged 40-49 (annual average percent change [AAPC]: 2.46 % [95 % CI 0.42 %, 4.55 %]) and 50-59 (AAPC: 1.91 % [95 % CI 0.73 %, 3.10 %]), and females aged 40-49 (AAPC: 3.39 % [95 % CI 1.32 %, 5.50 %]). In both sexes, rates increased among those with 1) > 15 years disease duration, 2) prior cardiovascular disease, and 3) Bumiputera (Malay/native) ethnicity. The overall SMR was 1.83 (95 % CI 1.80, 1.86) for males and 1.85 (95 % CI 1.82, 1.89) for females, being higher in younger age groups and showed an increasing trend in those with either > 15 years disease duration or prior cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality trends worsened in certain T2D population in Malaysia.

Cost-effectiveness of replacing versus discarding the nail in children with nail bed injury.

Every year in the UK, around 10 000 children need to have operations to mend injuries to the bed of their fingernails. Currently, most children have their fingernail placed back on the injured nail bed after the operation. The NINJA trial found that children were slightly less likely to have an infection if the nail was thrown away rather than being put back, but the difference between groups was small and could have be due to chance. This study looked at whether replacing the nail is cost-effective compared with throwing it away. Using data from the NINJA trial, we compared costs, healthcare use, and quality of life and assessed the cost-effectiveness of replacing the nail. It was found that throwing the nail away after surgery would save the National Health Service (NHS) £75 (€85) per operation compared with placing the nail back on the nail bed. Changing clinical practice could save the NHS in England £720 000 (€819 000) per year.

Effectiveness of nail bed repair in children with or without replacing the fingernail: NINJA multicentre randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Surgery for nail bed injuries in children is common. One of the key surgical decisions is whether to replace the nail plate following nail bed repair. The aim of this RCT was to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of nail bed repair with fingernail replacement/substitution compared with repair without fingernail replacement. METHODS: A two-arm 1 : 1 parallel-group open multicentre superiority RCT was performed across 20 secondary-care hospitals in the UK. The co-primary outcomes were surgical-site infection at around 7 days after surgery and cosmetic appearance summary score at a minimum of 4 months. RESULTS: Some 451 children presenting with a suspected nail bed injury were recruited between July 2018 and July 2019; 224 were allocated to the nail-discarded arm, and 227 to the nail-replaced arm. There was no difference in the number of surgical-site infections at around 7 days between the two interventions or in cosmetic appearance. The mean total healthcare cost over the 4 months after surgery was €84 (95 per cent c.i. 34 to 140) lower for the nail-discarded arm than the nail-replaced arm (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: After nail bed repair, discarding the fingernail was associated with similar rates of infection and cosmesis ratings as replacement of the finger nail, but was cost saving. Registration number: ISRCTN44551796 (http://www.controlled-trials.com).

Cost-effectiveness of adalimumab for early-stage Dupuytren's disease : an economic evaluation based on a randomized controlled trial and individual-patient simulation model.

AIMS: To estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of adalimumab compared with standard care alone for the treatment of early-stage Dupuytren's disease (DD) and the value of further research from an NHS perspective. METHODS: We used data from the Repurposing anti-TNF for Dupuytren's disease (RIDD) randomized controlled trial of intranodular adalimumab injections in patients with early-stage progressive DD. RIDD found that intranodular adalimumab injections reduced nodule hardness and size in patients with early-stage DD, indicating the potential to control disease progression. A within-trial cost-utility analysis compared four adalimumab injections with no further treatment against standard care alone, taking a 12-month time horizon and using prospective data on EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) and resource use from the RIDD trial. We also developed a patient-level simulation model similar to a Markov model to extrapolate trial outcomes over a lifetime using data from the RIDD trial and a literature review. This also evaluated repeated courses of adalimumab each time the nodule reactivated (every three years) in patients who initially responded. RESULTS: The within-trial economic evaluation found that adalimumab plus standard care cost £503,410 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained versus standard care alone over a 12-month time horizon. The model-based extrapolation suggested that, over a lifetime, repeated courses of adalimumab could cost £14,593 (95% confidence interval £7,534 to £42,698) per QALY gained versus standard care alone. If the NHS was willing to pay £20,000/QALY gained, there is a 77% probability that adalimumab with retreatment is the best value for money. CONCLUSION: Repeated courses of adalimumab are likely to be a cost-effective treatment for progressive early-stage DD. The value of perfect parameter information that would eliminate all uncertainty around the parameters estimated in RIDD and the duration of quiescence was estimated to be £105 per patient or £272 million for all 2,584,411 prevalent cases in the UK. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(11):898-906.

Small soluble α-synuclein aggregates are the toxic species in Parkinson's disease.

Soluble α-synuclein aggregates varying in size, structure, and morphology have been closely linked to neuronal death in Parkinson's disease. However, the heterogeneity of different co-existing aggregate species makes it hard to isolate and study their individual toxic properties. Here, we show a reliable non-perturbative method to separate a heterogeneous mixture of protein aggregates by size. We find that aggregates of wild-type α-synuclein smaller than 200 nm in length, formed during an in vitro aggregation reaction, cause inflammation and permeabilization of single-liposome membranes and that larger aggregates are less toxic. Studying soluble aggregates extracted from post-mortem human brains also reveals that these aggregates are similar in size and structure to the smaller aggregates formed in aggregation reactions in the test tube. Furthermore, we find that the soluble aggregates present in Parkinson's disease brains are smaller, largely less than 100 nm, and more inflammatory compared to the larger aggregates present in control brains. This study suggests that the small non-fibrillar α-synuclein aggregates are the critical species driving neuroinflammation and disease progression.

Anti-tumour necrosis factor therapy for early-stage Dupuytren's disease (RIDD): a phase 2b, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Background: Dupuytren's disease is a common fibrotic condition that causes the fingers to flex irreversibly into the palm. Treatments for late-stage disease all have limitations, and there is no approved treatment for early-stage disease. We identified tumour necrosis factor as a therapeutic target in Dupuytren's disease, and in a dose ranging trial found 40 mg adalimumab in 0·4 mL to be most efficacious. Here we aimed to assess the effects of intranodular injection of adalimumab in early-stage disease. Methods: In this phase 2b, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial adults with early-stage Dupuytren's disease and an established clinically distinct nodule with a clear history of progression in the preceding 6 months were recruited from two clinical centres in the UK and were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive four injections of adalimumab or saline every 3 months. Participants and assessors were masked. The primary outcome was nodule hardness measured with a durometer at 12 months. Data were analysed by linear mixed effects regression models in the intention-to-treat population with multiple imputation for missing primary outcome data. The trial is registered at the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN 27786905 and is complete. Findings: Between Feb 17, 2017, and Jan 11, 2019, 284 participants were screened in the UK and 140 were enrolled. 47 (34%) participants were female and 93 (66%) were male. Mean age of participants was 59·7 years (SD 10·0). Primary outcome data were available from 113 participants. Nodule hardness was lower (-4·6 AU [95% CI -7·1 to -2·2], p=0·0002) in the adalimumab compared with the saline group at 12 months. There were no related serious adverse events; the most common adverse events were minor injection site reactions. Interpretation: Intranodular injections of adalimumab in participants with early-stage Dupuytren's disease resulted in softening and reduction in size of the nodules. Longer follow-up would be required to assess the effect of tumour necrosis factor inhibition on disease progression, extension deficit and hand function.

Moulded cast compared with K-wire fixation after manipulation of an acute dorsally displaced distal radius fracture: the DRAFFT 2 RCT.

BACKGROUND: Patients with a displaced fracture of the distal radius are frequently offered surgical fixation. Manipulation of the fracture and moulded plaster casting is an alternative treatment that avoids metal implants, but evidence of its effectiveness is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To compare functional outcomes, quality-of-life outcomes, complications and resource use among patients with a dorsally displaced fracture of the distal radius treated with manipulation and surgical fixation with Kirschner wires (K-wires) and those treated with manipulation and moulded cast. DESIGN: Pragmatic, superiority, multicentre, randomised controlled trial with a health economic evaluation. SETTING: A total of 36 orthopaedic trauma centres in the UK NHS. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (aged ≥ 16 years) treated for an acute dorsally displaced fracture of the distal radius were potentially eligible. Patients were excluded if their injury had occurred > 2 weeks previously, if the fracture was open, if it extended > 3 cm from the radiocarpal joint or if it required open reduction, or if the participant was unable to complete questionnaires. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomly assigned in theatre (1 : 1) to receive a moulded cast (i.e. the cast group) or surgical fixation with K-wires (i.e. the K-wire group) after fracture manipulation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation score at 12 months, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. Health-related quality of life was recorded using the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version, and resource use was recorded from a health and personal social care perspective. RESULTS: Between January 2017 and March 2019, 500 participants (mean age 60 years, 83% women) were randomly allocated to receive a moulded cast (n = 255) or surgical fixation with K-wire (n = 245) following a manipulation of their fracture. A total of 395 (80%) participants were included in the primary analysis at 12 months. There was no difference in the Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation score at 1 year post randomisation [cast group: n = 200, mean score 21.2 (standard deviation 23.1); K-wire group: n = 195, mean score 20.7 (standard deviation 22.3); adjusted mean difference -0.34 (95% confidence interval -4.33 to 3.66); p = 0.87]. A total of 33 (13%) participants in the cast group required surgical fixation for loss of fracture position in the first 6 weeks, compared with one participant in the K-wire group (odds ratio 0.02, 95% confidence interval 0.001 to 0.10). The base-case cost-effectiveness analysis showed that manipulation and surgical fixation with K-wires had a higher mean cost than manipulation and a moulded cast, despite similar mean effectiveness. The use of K-wires is unlikely to be cost-effective, and sensitivity analyses found this result to be robust. LIMITATIONS: Because the interventions were identifiable, neither patients nor clinicians could be blind to their treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical fixation with K-wires was not found to be superior to moulded casting following manipulation of a dorsally displaced fracture of the distal radius, as measured by Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation score. However, one in eight participants treated in a moulded cast required surgery for loss of fracture reduction in the first 6 weeks. After a successful closed reduction, clinicians may consider a moulded cast as a safe and cost-effective alternative to surgical fixation with K-wires. FUTURE WORK: Further research should focus on optimal techniques for immobilisation and manipulation of this type of fracture, including optimal analgesia, and for rehabilitation of the patient after immobilisation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as ISRCTN11980540 and UKCRN Portfolio 208830. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Many patients with a wrist fracture can be treated with a simple cast or splint. However, if the broken bones have moved out of position, patients are frequently offered a manipulation of the fracture to restore the position of the broken bones. The bones may then be held in place with metal implants while they heal. A moulded plaster cast, shaped to support the bones, is an alternative treatment that avoids metal implants, but there is little research to suggest which treatment is better. The Distal Radius Acute Fracture Fixation Trial 2 (DRAFFT 2) study compared surgical fixation with metal wires with a moulded cast for patients with a broken wrist. Half of the patients underwent surgical fixation and half were given the moulded cast. The decision about which treatment patients were given was made by chance using a computer to ensure a fair comparison. The patients in both groups described their own wrist function and quality of life in the first year after their treatment and these descriptions were compared. A total of 500 patients took part at 36 NHS hospitals in the UK. The patients treated with a moulded cast reported very similar wrist function and quality of life to that of the patients treated with surgical fixation. However, one in eight patients treated with the moulded cast later required surgery because their broken bones had fallen back out of position. This study showed that a moulded cast is as good as, but costs less than, surgical fixation for patients with a broken wrist in terms of wrist function. However, a small proportion of the patients treated with a moulded cast may require later surgery if the broken bones cannot be held in position by the cast alone.

Lifetime cost-effectiveness simulation of once-weekly exenatide in type 2 diabetes: A cost-utility analysis based on the EXSCEL trial.

AIMS: The Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) trial assessed once-weekly exenatide (EQW) vs. placebo, added to usual care in 14,752 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01144338). We assessed the lifetime cost-effectiveness of adding EQW vs. usual care alone from a healthcare perspective. METHODS: Medical resource use and EQ-5D utilities were collected throughout the study. Within-trial results were extrapolated to a lifetime horizon using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model version 2 (UKPDS-OM2), predicting predict cardiovascular and microvascular events. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated separately for US and UK settings, with outcomes measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS: EQW plus usual care gained 0.162 QALYs at an additional cost of $41,545/patient, compared with usual care in a US setting. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $259,223/QALY. In a UK setting, the QALY gain was 0.151 at an additional cost of £6357: an ICER of £42,589/QALY. Sensitivity analyses ranged between $34,369-$269,571 and £3430-£46,560 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: In a lifetime extrapolation, adding EQW to usual care increased QALYs and costs compared with usual care alone. The base-case ICERs exceeded the commonly-cited cost-effectiveness thresholds of $100,000/QALY and £20,000/QALY. However, ICERs were considerably lower in some subgroups, and in sensitivity analyses.

Progressive exercise compared with best-practice advice, with or without corticosteroid injection, for rotator cuff disorders: the GRASP factorial RCT.

BACKGROUND: Rotator cuff-related shoulder pain is very common, but there is uncertainty regarding which modes of exercise delivery are optimal and the long-term benefits of corticosteroid injections. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of progressive exercise compared with best-practice physiotherapy advice, with or without corticosteroid injection, in adults with a rotator cuff disorder. DESIGN: This was a pragmatic multicentre superiority randomised controlled trial (with a 2 × 2 factorial design). SETTING: Twenty NHS primary care-based musculoskeletal and related physiotherapy services. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged ≥ 18 years with a new episode of rotator cuff-related shoulder pain in the previous 6 months. INTERVENTIONS: A total of 708 participants were randomised (March 2017-May 2019) by a centralised computer-generated 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 allocation ratio to one of four interventions: (1) progressive exercise (n = 174) (six or fewer physiotherapy sessions), (2) best-practice advice (n = 174) (one physiotherapy session), (3) corticosteroid injection then progressive exercise (n = 182) (six or fewer physiotherapy sessions) or (4) corticosteroid injection then best-practice advice (n = 178) (one physiotherapy session). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was Shoulder Pain and Disability Index (SPADI) score over 12 months. Secondary outcomes included SPADI subdomains, the EuroQol 5 Dimensions, five-level version, sleep disturbance, fear avoidance, pain self-efficacy, return to activity, Global Impression of Treatment and health resource use. Outcomes were collected by postal questionnaires at 8 weeks and at 6 and 12 months. A within-trial economic evaluation was also conducted. The primary analysis was intention to treat. RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 55.5 (standard deviation 13.1) years and 49.3% were female. The mean baseline SPADI score was 54.1 (standard deviation 18.5). Follow-up rates were 91% at 8 weeks and 87% at 6 and 12 months. There was an overall improvement in SPADI score from baseline in each group over time. Over 12 months, there was no evidence of a difference in the SPADI scores between the progressive exercise intervention and the best-practice advice intervention in shoulder pain and function (adjusted mean difference between groups over 12 months -0.66, 99% confidence interval -4.52 to 3.20). There was also no difference in SPADI scores between the progressive exercise intervention and best-practice advice intervention when analysed at the 8-week and 6- and 12-month time points. Injection resulted in improvement in shoulder pain and function at 8 weeks compared with no injection (adjusted mean difference -5.64, 99% confidence interval -9.93 to -1.35), but not when analysed over 12 months (adjusted mean difference -1.11, 99% confidence interval -4.47 to 2.26), or at 6 and 12 months. There were no serious adverse events. In the base-case analysis, adding injection to best-practice advice gained 0.021 quality-adjusted life-years (p = 0.184) and increased the cost by £10 per participant (p = 0.747). Progressive exercise alone was £52 (p = 0.247) more expensive per participant than best-practice advice, and gained 0.019 QALYs (p = 0.220). At a ceiling ratio of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, injection plus best-practice advice had a 54.93% probability of being the most cost-effective treatment. LIMITATIONS: Participants and physiotherapists were not blinded to group allocation. Twelve-month follow-up may be insufficient for identifying all safety concerns. CONCLUSIONS: Progressive exercise was not superior to a best-practice advice session with a physiotherapist. Subacromial corticosteroid injection improved shoulder pain and function, but provided only modest short-term benefit. Best-practice advice in combination with corticosteroid injection was expected to be most cost-effective, although there was substantial uncertainty. FUTURE WORK: Longer-term follow-up, including any serious adverse effects of corticosteroid injection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16539266 and EudraCT 2016-002991-28. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 48. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The rotator cuff is a group of muscles and tendons that stabilise the shoulder and allow it to move. Problems with the rotator cuff are very common. Symptoms include pain, which can affect a person's ability to work, sleep well or perform daily tasks. It is not known which treatments work best for shoulder pain, how exactly they should be delivered and whether or not people do better if they are given a steroid injection. The GRASP (Getting it Right: Addressing Shoulder Pain) trial tested whether or not people with a rotator cuff disorder would do better after a progressive exercise programme (supervised by a physiotherapist over six appointments spread out over 16 weeks) compared with a one-off best-practice advice session with a physiotherapist. The trial also tested whether or not giving a corticosteroid injection in the shoulder before starting either regime would help people recover more. We assessed the cost of delivering these treatments to the NHS. We recruited 708 people from 20 NHS-based musculoskeletal centres in the UK. People were allocated to one of four treatment groups at random: (1) progressive exercise (six or fewer physiotherapy sessions), (2) best-practice advice (one physiotherapy session), (3) corticosteroid injection then progressive exercise (six or fewer physiotherapy sessions) or (4) corticosteroid injection then best-practice advice (one physiotherapy session). Trial participants were asked to complete a questionnaire that asked about their level of shoulder pain and their ability to perform basic daily tasks before treatment, and then again at 8 weeks and at 6 and 12 months. Participants' shoulder pain and function improved over time in each of the four treatment groups. The GRASP trial showed that there was no difference between the best-practice advice session with a physiotherapist and the more comprehensive exercise programme. Corticosteroid injection improved people's shoulder pain and function, but only by a small amount and in the short term. No serious side effects were observed during the 12-month follow-up period. Best-practice advice in combination with corticosteroid injection is likely to be most cost-effective to the NHS.

Soluble amyloid beta-containing aggregates are present throughout the brain at early stages of Alzheimer's disease.

Protein aggregation likely plays a key role in the initiation and spreading of Alzheimer's disease pathology through the brain. Soluble aggregates of amyloid beta are believed to play a key role in this process. However, the aggregates present in humans are still poorly characterized due to a lack of suitable methods required for characterizing the low concentration of heterogeneous aggregates present. We have used a variety of biophysical methods to characterize the aggregates present in human Alzheimer's disease brains at Braak stage III. We find soluble amyloid beta-containing aggregates in all regions of the brain up to 200 nm in length, capable of causing an inflammatory response. Rather than aggregates spreading through the brain as disease progresses, it appears that aggregation occurs all over the brain and that different brain regions are at earlier or later stages of the same process, with the later stages causing increased inflammation.

Progressive exercise compared with best practice advice, with or without corticosteroid injection, for the treatment of patients with rotator cuff disorders (GRASP): a multicentre, pragmatic, 2 × 2 factorial, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Corticosteroid injections and physiotherapy exercise programmes are commonly used to treat rotator cuff disorders but the treatments' effectiveness is uncertain. We aimed to compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a progressive exercise programme with a single session of best practice physiotherapy advice, with or without corticosteroid injection, in adults with a rotator cuff disorder. METHODS: In this pragmatic, multicentre, superiority, randomised controlled trial (2 × 2 factorial), we recruited patients from 20 UK National Health Service trusts. We included patients aged 18 years or older with a rotator cuff disorder (new episode within the past 6 months). Patients were excluded if they had a history of significant shoulder trauma (eg, dislocation, fracture, or full-thickness tear requiring surgery), neurological disease affecting the shoulder, other shoulder conditions (eg, inflammatory arthritis, frozen shoulder, or glenohumeral joint instability), received corticosteroid injection or physiotherapy for shoulder pain in the past 6 months, or were being considered for surgery. Patients were randomly assigned (centralised computer-generated system, 1:1:1:1) to progressive exercise (≤6 sessions), best practice advice (one session), corticosteroid injection then progressive exercise, or corticosteroid injection then best practice advice. The primary outcome was the Shoulder Pain and Disability Index (SPADI) score over 12 months, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis (statistical significance set at 1%). The trial was registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Register, ISRCTN16539266, and EuDRACT, 2016-002991-28. FINDINGS: Between March 10, 2017, and May 2, 2019, we screened 2287 patients. 708 patients were randomly assigned to progressive exercise (n=174), best practice advice (n=174), corticosteroid injection then progressive exercise (n=182), or corticosteroid injection then best practice advice (n=178). Over 12 months, SPADI data were available for 166 (95%) patients in the progressive exercise group, 164 (94%) in the best practice advice group, 177 (97%) in the corticosteroid injection then progressive exercise group, and 175 (98%) in the corticosteroid injection then best practice advice group. We found no evidence of a difference in SPADI score between progressive exercise and best practice advice when analysed over 12 months (adjusted mean difference -0·66 [99% CI -4·52 to 3·20]). We also found no evidence of a difference between corticosteroid injection compared with no injection when analysed over 12 months (-1·11 [-4·47 to 2·26]). No serious adverse events were reported. INTERPRETATION: Progressive exercise was not superior to a best practice advice session with a physiotherapist in improving shoulder pain and function. Subacromial corticosteroid injection provided no long-term benefit in patients with rotator cuff disorders. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Technology Assessment Programme.

Statistical and health economic analysis plan for a randomized controlled trial of surgical fixation with K-wires versus plaster casting in the treatment of dorsally displaced distal radius fractures: DRAFFT2.

AIMS: Describe a statistical and economic analysis plan for the Distal Radius Acute Fracture Fixation Trial 2 (DRAFFT2) randomized controlled trial. METHODS: DRAFFT2 is a multicentre, parallel, two-arm randomized controlled trial. It compares surgical fixation with K-wires versus plaster cast in adult patients who have sustained a dorsally displaced fracture of the distal radius. The primary outcome measure is the Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation (PRWE, a validated assessment of wrist function and pain) at 12 months post-randomization. Secondary outcomes are measured at three, six, and 12 months after randomization and include the PWRE, EuroQoL EQ-5D-5L index and EQ-VAS (visual analogue scale), complication rate, and cost-effectiveness of the treatment. RESULTS: This paper describes the full details of the planned methods of analysis and descriptive statistics. The DRAFFT2 study protocol has been published previously. CONCLUSION: The planned analysis strategy described records our intent to conduct statistical and within-trial cost-utility analyses.Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:245-252.