Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions.

In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.

Evaluating causes of trends in long-term dissolved reactive phosphorus loads to Lake Erie.

Renewed harmful algal blooms and hypoxia in Lake Erie have drawn significant attention to phosphorus loads, particularly increased dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) from highly agricultural watersheds. We use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model DRP in the agriculture-dominated Sandusky watershed for 1970-2010 to explore potential reasons for the recent increased DRP load from Lake Erie watersheds. We demonstrate that recent increased storm events, interacting with changes in fertilizer application timing and rate, as well as management practices that increase soil stratification and phosphorus accumulation at the soil surface, appear to drive the increasing DRP trend after the mid-1990s. This study is the first long-term, detailed analysis of DRP load estimation using SWAT.