Bayesian reaction optimization as a tool for chemical synthesis.

Reaction optimization is fundamental to synthetic chemistry, from optimizing the yield of industrial processes to selecting conditions for the preparation of medicinal candidates1. Likewise, parameter optimization is omnipresent in artificial intelligence, from tuning virtual personal assistants to training social media and product recommendation systems2. Owing to the high cost associated with carrying out experiments, scientists in both areas set numerous (hyper)parameter values by evaluating only a small subset of the possible configurations. Bayesian optimization, an iterative response surface-based global optimization algorithm, has demonstrated exceptional performance in the tuning of machine learning models3. Bayesian optimization has also been recently applied in chemistry4-9; however, its application and assessment for reaction optimization in synthetic chemistry has not been investigated. Here we report the development of a framework for Bayesian reaction optimization and an open-source software tool that allows chemists to easily integrate state-of-the-art optimization algorithms into their everyday laboratory practices. We collect a large benchmark dataset for a palladium-catalysed direct arylation reaction, perform a systematic study of Bayesian optimization compared to human decision-making in reaction optimization, and apply Bayesian optimization to two real-world optimization efforts (Mitsunobu and deoxyfluorination reactions). Benchmarking is accomplished via an online game that links the decisions made by expert chemists and engineers to real experiments run in the laboratory. Our findings demonstrate that Bayesian optimization outperforms human decisionmaking in both average optimization efficiency (number of experiments) and consistency (variance of outcome against initially available data). Overall, our studies suggest that adopting Bayesian optimization methods into everyday laboratory practices could facilitate more efficient synthesis of functional chemicals by enabling better-informed, data-driven decisions about which experiments to run.

The impact of rare variation on gene expression across tissues.

Rare genetic variants are abundant in humans and are expected to contribute to individual disease risk. While genetic association studies have successfully identified common genetic variants associated with susceptibility, these studies are not practical for identifying rare variants. Efforts to distinguish pathogenic variants from benign rare variants have leveraged the genetic code to identify deleterious protein-coding alleles, but no analogous code exists for non-coding variants. Therefore, ascertaining which rare variants have phenotypic effects remains a major challenge. Rare non-coding variants have been associated with extreme gene expression in studies using single tissues, but their effects across tissues are unknown. Here we identify gene expression outliers, or individuals showing extreme expression levels for a particular gene, across 44 human tissues by using combined analyses of whole genomes and multi-tissue RNA-sequencing data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project v6p release. We find that 58% of underexpression and 28% of overexpression outliers have nearby conserved rare variants compared to 8% of non-outliers. Additionally, we developed RIVER (RNA-informed variant effect on regulation), a Bayesian statistical model that incorporates expression data to predict a regulatory effect for rare variants with higher accuracy than models using genomic annotations alone. Overall, we demonstrate that rare variants contribute to large gene expression changes across tissues and provide an integrative method for interpretation of rare variants in individual genomes.

The impact of structural variation on human gene expression.

Structural variants (SVs) are an important source of human genetic diversity, but their contribution to traits, disease and gene regulation remains unclear. We mapped cis expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) in 13 tissues via joint analysis of SVs, single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) and short insertion/deletion (indel) variants from deep whole-genome sequencing (WGS). We estimated that SVs are causal at 3.5-6.8% of eQTLs-a substantially higher fraction than prior estimates-and that expression-altering SVs have larger effect sizes than do SNVs and indels. We identified 789 putative causal SVs predicted to directly alter gene expression: most (88.3%) were noncoding variants enriched at enhancers and other regulatory elements, and 52 were linked to genome-wide association study loci. We observed a notable abundance of rare high-impact SVs associated with aberrant expression of nearby genes. These results suggest that comprehensive WGS-based SV analyses will increase the power of common- and rare-variant association studies.