Defining the roles of local precipitation and anthropogenic water sources in driving the abundance of Aedes aegypti, an emerging disease vector in urban, arid landscapes.

Understanding drivers of disease vectors' population dynamics is a pressing challenge. For short-lived organisms like mosquitoes, landscape-scale models must account for their highly local and rapid life cycles. Aedes aegypti, a vector of multiple emerging diseases, has become abundant in desert population centers where water from precipitation could be a limiting factor. To explain this apparent paradox, we examined Ae. aegypti abundances at > 660 trapping locations per year for 3 years in the urbanized Maricopa County (metropolitan Phoenix), Arizona, USA. We created daily precipitation layers from weather station data using a kriging algorithm, and connected localized daily precipitation to numbers of mosquitoes trapped at each location on subsequent days. Precipitation events occurring in either of two critical developmental periods for mosquitoes were correlated to suppressed subsequent adult female presence and abundance. LASSO models supported these analyses for female presence but not abundance. Precipitation may explain 72% of Ae. aegypti presence and 90% of abundance, with anthropogenic water sources supporting mosquitoes during long, precipitation-free periods. The method of using kriging and weather station data may be generally applicable to the study of various ecological processes and patterns, and lead to insights into microclimates associated with a variety of organisms' life cycles.

Aedes aegypti abundance in urban neighborhoods of Maricopa County, Arizona, is linked to increasing socioeconomic status and tree cover.

BACKGROUND: Understanding coupled human-environment factors which promote Aedes aegypti abundance is critical to preventing the spread of Zika, chikungunya, yellow fever and dengue viruses. High temperatures and aridity theoretically make arid lands inhospitable for Ae. aegypti mosquitoes, yet their populations are well established in many desert cities. METHODS: We investigated associations between socioeconomic and built environment factors and Ae. aegypti abundance in Maricopa County, Arizona, home to Phoenix metropolitan area. Maricopa County Environmental Services conducts weekly mosquito surveillance with CO2-baited Encephalitis Vector Survey or BG-Sentinel traps at > 850 locations throughout the county. Counts of adult female Ae. aegypti from 2014 to 2017 were joined with US Census data, precipitation and temperature data, and 2015 land cover from high-resolution (1 m) aerial images from the National Agricultural Imagery Program. RESULTS: From 139,729 trap-nights, 107,116 Ae. aegypti females were captured. Counts were significantly positively associated with higher socioeconomic status. This association was partially explained by higher densities of non-native landscaping in wealthier neighborhoods; a 1% increase in the density of tree cover around the trap was associated with a ~ 7% higher count of Ae. aegypti (95% CI: 6-9%). CONCLUSIONS: Many models predict that climate change will drive aridification in some heavily populated regions, including those where Ae. aegypti are widespread. City climate change adaptation plans often include green spaces and vegetation cover to increase resilience to extreme heat, but these may unintentionally create hospitable microclimates for Ae. aegypti. This possible outcome should be addressed to reduce the potential for outbreaks of Aedes-borne diseases in desert cities.

Unprecedented Outbreak of West Nile Virus - Maricopa County, Arizona, 2021.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquitoborne disease primarily transmitted through bites of infected Culex species mosquitos (1). In the United States, WNV is the leading domestically acquired arboviral disease; it can cause severe illness affecting the brain and spinal cord with an associated case fatality rate of 10% (2,3). On September 2, 2021, Maricopa County Environmental Services Department, Vector Control Division (MCESD-VCD) notified the Maricopa County Department of Public Health (MCDPH) and the Arizona Department of Health Services (ADHS) that the WNV vector index (VI), a measure of infected Culex mosquitoes, was substantially elevated. By that date, at least 100 WNV cases had already been reported among Maricopa County residents to MCDPH by health care providers and laboratories. Within 2 weeks, the VI reached its highest ever recorded level (53.61), with an associated tenfold increase in the number of human disease cases. During 2021, a total of 1,487 human WNV cases were identified; 956 (64.3%) patients had neuroinvasive disease, and 101 (6.8%) died. MCESD-VCD conducted daily remediation efforts to mitigate elevated VI and address mosquito-related complaints from residents (i.e., large numbers of outdoor mosquitoes from an unknown source and unmaintained swimming pools potentially breeding mosquitoes). MCDPH increased outreach to the community and providers through messaging, education events, and media. This was the largest documented focal WNV outbreak in a single county in the United States (4). Despite outreach efforts to communities and health care partners, clinicians and patients reported a lack of awareness of the WNV outbreak, highlighting the need for public health agencies to increase prevention messaging to broaden public awareness and to ensure that health care providers are aware of recommended testing methods for clinically compatible illnesses.

Spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species and areas at risk for arbovirus transmission in Maricopa County, Arizona.

Mosquito-borne diseases are a major global public health concern and mosquito surveillance systems are essential for the implementation of effective mosquito control strategies. The objective of our study is to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species in Maricopa County, AZ from 2011 to 2021, and to identify the hotspot areas for West Nile virus (WNV) and St. Louis Encephalitis virus (SLEV) transmission in 2021. The Maricopa County Mosquito Control surveillance system utilizes BG-Sentinel and EVS-CDC traps throughout the entire urban and suburban areas of the county. We estimated specific mosquito species relative abundance per unit area using the Kernel density estimator in ArcGIS 10.2. We calculated the distance between all traps in the surveillance system and created a 4 km buffer radius around each trap to calculate the extent to which each trap deviated from the mean number of Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex tarsalis collected in 2021. Our results show that vector mosquito species are widely distributed and abundant in the urban areas of Maricopa County. A total of 691,170Cx. quinquefasciatus, 542,733 Cx. tarsalis, and 292,305 Aedes aegypti were collected from 2011 to 2022. The relative abundance of Ae. aegypti was highly seasonal peaking in the third and fourth quarters of the year. Culex quinquefasciatus, on the other hand, was abundant throughout the year with several regions consistently yielding high numbers of mosquitoes. Culex tarsalis was abundant but it only reached high numbers in well-defined areas near irrigated landscapes. We also detected high levels of heterogeneity in the risk of WNV and SLEV transmission to humans disregarding traps geographical proximity. The well-defined species-specific spatiotemporal and geographical patterns found in this study can be used to inform vector control operations.

Phylogenetic analysis of West Nile Virus in Maricopa County, Arizona: Evidence for dynamic behavior of strains in two major lineages in the American Southwest.

West Nile Virus (WNV) has been detected annually in Maricopa County, Arizona, since 2003. With this in mind, we sought to determine if contemporary strains are endemic to the county or are annually imported. As part of this effort, we developed a new protocol for tiled amplicon sequencing of WNV to efficiently attain greater than 99% coverage of 14 WNV genomes collected directly from positive mosquito pools distributed throughout Maricopa County between 2014 and 2017. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses revealed that contemporary genomes fall within two major lineages; NA/WN02 and SW/WN03. We found that all of the Arizona strains possessed an amino acid substitution known to be under positive selection, which has arisen independently at least four times in Arizona. The SW/WN03 strains exhibited transient behavior, with at least 10 separate introductions into Arizona when considering both historical and contemporary strains. However, NA/WN02 strains are geographically differentiated and appear to be endemic in Arizona, with two clades that have been circulating for four and seven years. This establishment in Maricopa County provides the first evidence of local overwintering by a WNV strain over the course of several years in Arizona. Within a national context, the placement of eleven contemporary Arizona strains in the NA/WN02 lineage indicates while WNV first entered the northeastern United States in 1999, the most ancestral extant strains of WNV are now circulating in the American southwest.

Use of temperature to improve West Nile virus forecasts.

Ecological and laboratory studies have demonstrated that temperature modulates West Nile virus (WNV) transmission dynamics and spillover infection to humans. Here we explore whether inclusion of temperature forcing in a model depicting WNV transmission improves WNV forecast accuracy relative to a baseline model depicting WNV transmission without temperature forcing. Both models are optimized using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams: mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. Each coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of WNV for 110 outbreak years from among 12 geographically diverse United States counties. The temperature-forced model improves forecast accuracy for much of the outbreak season. From the end of July until the beginning of October, a timespan during which 70% of human cases are reported, the temperature-forced model generated forecasts of the total number of human cases over the next 3 weeks, total number of human cases over the season, the week with the highest percentage of infectious mosquitoes, and the peak percentage of infectious mosquitoes that on average increased absolute forecast accuracy 5%, 10%, 12%, and 6%, respectively, over the non-temperature forced baseline model. These results indicate that use of temperature forcing improves WNV forecast accuracy and provide further evidence that temperature influences rates of WNV transmission. The findings provide a foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal WNV outbreaks and their use as a quantitative decision support tool for public health officials and mosquito control programs.

Reduced West Nile Virus Transmission Around Communal Roosts of Great-Tailed Grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus).

West Nile virus has caused several outbreaks among humans in the Phoenix metropolitan area (Arizona, southwest USA) within the last decade. Recent ecologic studies have implicated Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex tarsalis as the mosquito vectors and identified three abundant passerine birds-great-tailed grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus), house sparrow (Passer domesticus), and house finch (Haemorhous mexicanus)-as key amplifiers among vertebrates. Nocturnal congregations of certain species have been suggested as critical for late summer West Nile virus amplification. We evaluated the hypothesis that house sparrow (P. domesticus) and/or great-tailed grackle (Q. mexicanus) communal roost sites (n = 22 and n = 5, respectively) in a primarily suburban environment were spatially associated with West Nile virus transmission indices during the 2010 outbreak of human neurological disease in metropolitan Phoenix. Spatial associations between human case residences and communal roosts were non-significant for house sparrows, and were negative for great-tailed grackle. Several theories that explain these observations are discussed, including the possibility that grackle communal roosts are protective.

West Nile virus outbreak in Phoenix, Arizona--2010: entomological observations and epidemiological correlations.

In 2010, Arizona experienced an unusually early and severe outbreak of West Nile virus (WNV) centered in the southeast section of Maricopa County. Entomological data were collected before and during the outbreak, from May 25 through July 31, 2010, using the CO2-baited light trap monitoring system maintained by Maricopa County Vector Control. In the outbreak area, the most abundant species in the Town of Gilbert and in the area covered by the Roosevelt Water Conservation District was Culex quinquefasciatus, constituting 75.1% and 71.8% of the total number of mosquitoes collected, respectively. Vector index (VI) profiles showed that the abundance of infected Cx. quinquefasciatus peaked prior to human cases, suggesting that this species was involved in the initiation of the outbreak. In contrast, the VI profiles for Cx. tarsalis were consistently low, suggesting limited involvement in initiating and sustaining transmission. Taken together, the higher abundance and the VI profiles strongly suggest that Cx. quinquefasciatus was the primary vector for this outbreak. The VI profiles consistently showed that the abundance of infected mosquitoes peaked 1 to 2 wk before the peaks of human cases, suggesting that VI could have successfully been utilized to predict the WNV outbreak in Maricopa County, AZ, in 2010.