Serious hospital events following symptomatic infection with Sars-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants: an exposed-unexposed cohort study in December 2021 from the COVID-19 surveillance databases in France

BackgroundA rapid increase in incidence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant occurred in France in December 2021, while the Delta variant was prevailing since July 2021. We aimed to determine whether the risk of a severe hospital event following symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection differs for Omicron versus Delta. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study to compare severe hospital events (admission to intensive care unit or death) between Omicron and Delta symptomatic cases matched according to week of virological diagnosis and age. The analysis was adjusted for age, sex, vaccination status, presence of comorbidities and region of residence, using Cox proportional hazards model. FindingsBetween 06/12/2021-28/01/2022, 184 364 cases were included, of which 931 had a severe hospital event (822 Delta, 109 Omicron). The risk of severe event was lower among Omicron versus Delta cases; the difference in severity between the two variants decreased with age (aHR=0{middle dot}11 95%CI: 0{middle dot}07-0{middle dot}17 among 40-64 years, aHR=0{middle dot}51 95%CI: 0{middle dot}26-1{middle dot}01 among 80+ years). The risk of severe event increased with the presence of comorbidities (for very-high-risk comorbidity, aHR=4{middle dot}18 95%CI: 2{middle dot}88-6{middle dot}06 among 40-64 years) and in males (aHR=2{middle dot}29 95%CI: 1{middle dot}83-2{middle dot}86 among 40-64 years) and was higher in unvaccinated compared to primo-vaccinated (aHR=6{middle dot}90 95%CI: 5{middle dot}26-9{middle dot}05 among 40-64 years). A booster dose reduced the risk of severe hospital event in 80+ years infected with Omicron (aHR=0{middle dot}27; 95%CI: 0{middle dot}11-0{middle dot}65). InterpretationThis study confirms the lower severity of Omicron compared to Delta. However, the difference in disease severity is less marked in the elderly.

Reactive vaccination of workplaces and schools against COVID-19

AbstractAs vaccination against COVID-19 stalls in some countries, increased accessibility and more adaptive approaches may be useful to keep the epidemic under control. Here, we study the impact of reactive vaccination targeting schools and workplaces where cases are detected, with an agent-based model accounting for COVID-19 natural history, vaccine characteristics, individuals demography and behaviour and social distancing. At an equal number of doses reactive vaccination produces a higher reduction in cases compared with non-reactive strategies, in the majority of scenarios. However, at high initial vaccination coverage or low incidence, few people are found to vaccinate around cases, thus the reactive strategy may be less effective than non-reactive strategies with moderate/high vaccination pace. In case of flare-ups, reactive vaccination could hinder spread if it is implemented quickly, is supported by enhanced test-trace-isolate and triggers an increased vaccine uptake. These results provide key information to plan an adaptive vaccination deployment.

Association between the COVID-19 pandemic and pertussis in France using multiple nationwide data sources

BackgroundInterventions to mitigate coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic may impact other respiratory diseases such as pertussis. We aimed to study the course of pertussis in France over an 8-year period and its association with COVID-19 mitigation strategies, using multiple nationwide data sources. MethodsWe analyzed the number of French pertussis cases between 2013 and 2020, using the PCR test results from nationwide outpatient laboratories (Source 1) and the pediatric network of 41 hospitals (Source 2), and using the reports of an office-based pediatric national network (Source 3). We conducted a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series analysis, relying on negative binomial regression models. The models accounted for seasonality, long-term cycles, and secular trend, and included a binary variable for the first national lockdown (ordered on March 16, 2021). ResultsWe identified 19,039 cases of pertussis from the three data sources during the study period. There was a significant decrease of pertussis cases following the implementation of mitigation measures, with adjusted incidence rate ratios of 0.102 (95% CI 0.040-0.256) and 0.216 (95% CI 0.071-0.656) for Source 1 and Source 2, respectively. The association was confirmed in Source 3 (median of 1 [IQR 0-2] vs. 0 [IQR 0-0] pertussis cases per month before and after lockdown, respectively, p=0.0048). ConclusionThe drastic reduction of outpatient and hospitalized cases of pertussis strongly suggests an impact of COVID-19 mitigation measures and their consequences on pertussis epidemiology. Pertussis vaccination recommendations should be carefully followed, and disease monitoring should be continued to detect any resurgence after relaxation of mitigation measures. FundingThere was no specific funding for the study.

Short Telomeres and a T-Cell Shortfall in COVID-19: The Aging Effect

The slow pace of global vaccination and the rapid emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants suggest recurrent waves of COVID-19 in coming years. Therefore, understanding why deaths from COVID-19 are highly concentrated among older adults is essential for global health. Severe COVID-19 T-cell lymphopenia is more common among older adults, and it entails poor prognosis. Much about the primary etiology of this form of lymphopenia remains unknown, but regardless of its causes, offsetting the decline in T-cell count during SARS-CoV-2 infection demands fast and massive T-cell clonal expansion, which is telomere length (TL)-dependent. We have built a model that captures the effect of age-dependent TL shortening in hematopoietic cells and its effect on T-cell clonal expansion capacity. The model shows that an individual with average hematopoietic cell TL (HCTL) at age twenty years maintains maximal T-cell clonal expansion capacity until the 6th decade of life when this capacity plummets by more than 90% over the next ten years. The collapse coincides with the steep increase in COVID-19 mortality with age. HCTL metrics may thus explain the vulnerability of older adults to COVID-19. That said, the wide inter-individual variation in HCTL across the general population means that some younger adults with inherently short HCTL might be at risk of severe COVID-19 lymphopenia and mortality from the disease. Significance StatementDeclining immunity with advancing age is a general explanation for the increased mortality from COVID-19 among older adults. This mortality far exceeds that from viral illnesses such as the seasonal influenza, and it thus requires specific explanations. One of these might be diminished ability with age to offset the development of severe T-cell lymphopenia (a low T-cell count in the blood) that often complicates COVID-19. We constructed a model showing that age-dependent shortening of telomeres might constrain the ability of T-cells of some older COVID-19 patients to undertake the massive proliferation required to clear the virus that causes the infection. The model predicts that individuals with short telomeres, principally seniors, might be at a higher risk of death from COVID-19.

Adherence and sustainability of interventions informing optimal control against COVID-19 pandemic

After one year of stop-and-go COVID-19 mitigation, some European countries still experience sustained viral circulation due to the B.1.1.7 variant. As the prospect of phasing out this stage through vaccination draws closer, it is critical to balance the efficacy of long-lasting interventions and their impact on the quality of life. Focusing on the current situation in France, we show that moderate interventions require a much longer time to achieve the same result as high intensity lockdowns, with the additional risk of deteriorating control as adherence wanes. Integrating intensity and duration of social distancing in a data-driven "distress" index, we show that shorter strict lockdowns are largely more performant than longer moderate lockdowns, for similar intermediate distress and infringement on individual freedom. Our study shows that favoring milder interventions over more stringent short approaches on the basis of perceived acceptability could be detrimental in the long term, especially with waning adherence.

Mendelian randomisation identifies alternative splicing of the FAS death receptor as a mediator of severe COVID-19

Severe COVID-19 is characterised by immunopathology and epithelial injury. Proteomic studies have identified circulating proteins that are biomarkers of severe COVID-19, but cannot distinguish correlation from causation. To address this, we performed Mendelian randomisation (MR) to identify proteins that mediate severe COVID-19. Using protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) data from the SCALLOP consortium, involving meta-analysis of up to 26,494 individuals, and COVID-19 genome-wide association data from the Host Genetics Initiative, we performed MR for 157 COVID-19 severity protein biomarkers. We identified significant MR results for five proteins: FAS, TNFRSF10A, CCL2, EPHB4 and LGALS9. Further evaluation of these candidates using sensitivity analyses and colocalization testing provided strong evidence to implicate the apoptosis-associated cytokine receptor FAS as a causal mediator of severe COVID-19. This effect was specific to severe disease. Using RNA-seq data from 4,778 individuals, we demonstrate that the pQTL at the FAS locus results from genetically influenced alternate splicing causing skipping of exon 6. We show that the risk allele for very severe COVID-19 increases the proportion of transcripts lacking exon 6, and thereby increases soluble FAS. Soluble FAS acts as a decoy receptor for FAS-ligand, inhibiting apoptosis induced through membrane-bound FAS. In summary, we demonstrate a novel genetic mechanism that contributes to risk of severe of COVID-19, highlighting a pathway that may be a promising therapeutic target.

Impact of January 2021 social distancing measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France

Facing B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a 2-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalizations to plateau, by decreasing transmission of the historical strain while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalizations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.

Monitoring the proportion infected by SARS-CoV-2 from age-stratified hospitalisation and serological data

BackgroundRegional monitoring of the proportion infected by SARS-CoV-2 is important to guide local management of the epidemic, but is difficult in the absence of regular nationwide serosurveys. MethodsWe developed a method to reconstruct in real-time the proportion infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the proportion of infections being detected from the joint analysis of age-stratified seroprevalence, hospitalisation and case data. We applied our approach to the 13 French metropolitan regions. FindingsWe estimate that 5.7% [5.1%-6.4%] of adults in metropolitan France had been infected by SARS-CoV-2 by May 2020. This proportion remained stable until August and increased to 12.6% [11.2%-14.3%] by the end of November. With 23.8% [21.2%-26.8%] infected in the Paris region compared to 4.0% [3.5% - 4.6%] in Brittany, regional variations remained large (Coefficient of Variation CV: 0.53) although less so than in May (CV: 0.74). The proportion infected was twice higher (17.6% [13.4%-22.7%]) in 20-49 y.o. than in 50+ y.o (8.0% [5.7% - 11.5%]). Forty percent [33.7% - 45.4%] of infections in adults were detected in June-August compared to 55.7% [48.7% - 63.1%] in September-November. Our method correctly predicted seroprevalence in 11 regions in which only hospitalisation data were used. InterpretationIn the absence of contemporary serosurvey, our real-time monitoring indicates that the proportion infected by SARS-CoV-2 may be above 20% in some French regions. FundingEU RECOVER, ANR, Fondation pour la Recherche Medicale, Inserm.

Invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in children and adults in France during the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine era: an interrupted time-series analysis of data from a 17-year national prospective surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: The long-term benefits of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) remain unknown because of serotype replacement. We aimed to estimate the effect of PCV implementation on invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in France. METHODS: We did a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series analysis using data from a French national prospective surveillance system. We included all invasive pneumococcal disease cases in children and adults from more than 250 participating hospitals between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2017. The primary outcome was incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (meningitis and non-meningitis) over time, analysed by segmented regression with autoregressive error. Isolates were serotyped by latex agglutination with antiserum samples. FINDINGS: We included 75 903 patients with invasive pneumococcal disease, including 4302 (5·7%) children younger than 2 years and 37 534 (49·4%) adults aged 65 years or older. Before PCV7 implementation, the estimated monthly incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease was 0·78 cases per 100 000 inhabitants, which did not change significantly up to May, 2010. PCV13 implementation in 2010 was followed by a significant decrease in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (-1·5% per month, 95% CI -2·2 to -0·8), reaching an estimated monthly incidence of 0·52 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in December, 2014. From January, 2015, the incidence rebounded (1·8% per month, 95% CI 1·0 to 2·6), reaching an estimated monthly incidence of 0·73 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in December, 2017. The estimated monthly incidence increased from 0·93 cases per 100 000 in December, 2014, to 1·73 cases per 100 000 in December, 2017, for children younger than 2 years, and from 1·54 cases per 100 000 in December, 2014, to 2·08 cases per 100 000 in December, 2017, for adults aged 65 years or older. The main non-PCV13 serotypes involved in the increase were 24F in young children and 12F, 22F, 9N, and 8 in adults aged 65 years or older. INTERPRETATION: PCV13 implementation led to a major reduction in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease. However, a rebound in cases among children and adults since 2015, driven by several emerging non-PCV13 serotypes, jeopardises the long-term PCV benefits. These findings, if confirmed in the coming years, should be considered in the development of next-generation PCVs and might guide policy makers in the selection of future pneumococcal vaccines. FUNDING: Foundation for Medical Research; Pfizer, BioMérieux, Sanofi for the Regional Observatory of Pneumococci.

Ready for a BASE jump? Do not neglect SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization and fatality risks in the middle-aged adult population.

Seroprevalence results coupled with surveillance data were used to estimate the SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalization (IHR) and infection fatality ratios (IFR) in France. IHR and IFR were dramatically high in the very elderly (80-90 years: IHR: 30%, IFR: 11%), but also substantial in middle-aged adults (40-50 years: IHR: 1.2%, IFR: 0.05%).

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in France: results from nationwide serological surveillance

BackgroundAssessment of cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections is critical for monitoring the course and the extent of the epidemic. As asymptomatic or mild cases were typically not captured by surveillance data in France, we implemented nationwide serological surveillance. We present estimates for prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the French population and the proportion of infected individuals who developed potentially protective neutralizing antibodies throughout the first epidemic wave. MethodsWe performed serial cross-sectional sampling of residual sera over three periods: prior to (9-15 March), during (6-12 April) and following (11-17 May) a nationwide lockdown. Each sample was tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies targeting the Nucleoprotein and Spike using two Luciferase-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assays, and for neutralising antibodies using a pseudo-neutralisation assay. We fitted a general linear mixed model of seropositivity in a Bayesian framework to derive prevalence estimates stratified by age, sex and region. FindingsIn total, sera from 11 021 individuals were analysed. Nationwide seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was estimated at 0.41% [0.05-0.88] mid-March, 4.14% [3.31-4.99] mid-April and 4.93% [4.02-5.89] mid-May. Approximately 70% of seropositive individuals had detectable neutralising antibodies. Seroprevalence was higher in regions where circulation occurred earlier and was more intense. Seroprevalence was lowest in children under 10 years of age (2.72% [1.10-4.87]). InterpretationSeroprevalence estimates confirm that the nationwide lockdown substantially curbed transmission and that the vast majority of the French population remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. Low seroprevalence in school age children suggests limited susceptibility and/or transmissibility in this age group. Our results show a clear picture of the progression of the first epidemic wave and provide a framework to inform the ongoing public health response as viral transmission is picking up again in France and globally. FundingSante publique France.

A Mechanism for Severity of Disease in Older Patients with COVID-19: The Nexus between Telomere Length and Lymphopenia

BackgroundLymphopenia due to a plummeting T-cell count is a major feature of severe COVID-19. T-cell proliferation is telomere length (TL)-dependent and TL shortens with age. Older persons are disproportionally affected by severe COVID-19, and we hypothesized that those with short TL have less capacity to mount an adequate T-cell proliferative response to SARS-CoV-2. This hypothesis predicts that among older patients with COVID-19, shorter telomeres of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) will be associated with a lower lymphocyte count. MethodsOur sample comprised 17 COVID-19 and 21 non-COVID-19 patients, aged 87 {+/-} 8 (mean {+/-} SD) and 87 {+/-} 9 years, respectively. We measured TL by the Telomere Shortest Length Assay, a novel method that measures and tallies the short telomeres directly relevant to telomere-mediated biological processes. The primary analysis quantified TL as the proportion of telomeres shorter than 2 kilobases. For comparison, we also quantified TL by Southern blotting, which measures the mean length of telomeres. ResultsLymphocyte count (109/L) was 0.91 {+/-} 0.42 in COVID-19 patients and 1.50 {+/-} 0.50 in non-COVID-19 patients (P < 0.001). In COVID-19 patients, but not in non-COVID-19 patients, lymphocyte count was inversely correlated with the proportion of telomeres shorter than 2 kilobases (P = 0.005) and positively correlated with the mean of telomeres measured by TeSLA (P = 0.03). Lymphocyte counts showed no statistically significant correlations with Southern blotting results in COVID-19 or non-COVID-19 patients. ConclusionsThese results support the hypothesis that a compromised TL-dependent T-cell proliferative response contributes to lymphopenia and the resulting disproportionate severity of COVID-19 among old adults. We infer that infection with SARS-CoV-2 uncovers the limits of the TL reserves of older persons.

Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17th March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find 2.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.53% die, ranging from 0.001% in those <20y to 8.3% in those >80y. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 3.3 to 0.5 (84% reduction). By 11 May, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 3.7 million (range: 2.3-6.7) people, 5.7% of the population, will have been infected. Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.

ELUCIDATING NUCLEAR SIZE CONTROL IN THE XENOPUS MODEL SYSTEM.

BACKGROUND: Nuclear size is a tightly regulated cellular feature. Mechanisms that regulate nuclear size and the functional significance of this regulation are largely unknown. Nuclear size and morphology are often altered in many diseases, such as cancer. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms that regulate nuclear size is crucial to provide insight into the role of nuclear size in disease. SCOPE AND APPROACH: The goal of this review is to summarize the most recent studies about the mechanisms and functional significance of nuclear size control using the Xenopus model system. First, this review describes how Xenopus egg extracts, embryos, and embryo extracts are prepared and used in scientific research. Next, the review focuses on the mechanisms and functional effects of proper nuclear size control that have been learned using the Xenopus system. KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: Xenopus is an excellent in vivo and in vitro experimental platform to study mechanisms of nuclear size control. Given its close evolutionary relationship with mammals and that most cellular processes and pathways are highly conserved between Xenopus and humans, the Xenopus system has been a valuable tool to advance biomedical research. Some of the mechanisms that regulate nuclear size include components of nuclear import such as importin α and NTF2, nuclear lamins, nucleoporins, proteins that regulate the morphology of the endoplasmic reticulum, and cytoskeletal elements.

Surveillance of invasive pneumococcal disease in 30 EU countries: Towards a European system?

In this era of new pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV), we described and compared surveillance of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and PCV policies in 30 European countries to provide guidance for Europe-wide surveillance. We confirmed the heterogeneity of surveillance systems and case definitions across countries but identified elements common to all countries, such as the availability of serotyping and the surveillance of pneumococcal meningitis. PCV impact was monitored in 11/15 countries using it. We propose steps for the monitoring of incidence rates and serotype distribution at EU level, to assess the need to introduce PCV and monitor its impact once introduced.