Seasonality, timing, and climate drivers of influenza activity worldwide.

BACKGROUND: Although influenza is a vaccine-preventable disease that annually causes substantial disease burden, data on virus activity in tropical countries are limited. We analyzed publicly available influenza data to better understand the global circulation of influenza viruses. METHOD: We reviewed open-source, laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data. For each country, we abstracted data on the percentage of samples testing positive for influenza each epidemiologic week from the annual number of samples testing positive for influenza. The start of influenza season was defined as the first week when the proportion of samples that tested positive remained above the annual mean. We assessed the relationship between percentage of samples testing positive and mean monthly temperature with use of regression models. FINDINGS: We identified data on laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection from 85 countries. More than one influenza epidemic period per year was more common in tropical countries (41%) than in temperate countries (15%). Year-round activity (ie, influenza virus identified each week having ≥ 10 specimens submitted) occurred in 3 (7%) of 43 temperate, 1 (17%) of 6 subtropical, and 11 (37%) of 30 tropical countries with available data (P = .006). Percentage positivity was associated with low temperature (P = .001). INTERPRETATION: Annual influenza epidemics occur in consistent temporal patterns depending on climate.

Increased rates of bone fracture among HIV-infected persons in the HIV Outpatient Study (HOPS) compared with the US general population, 2000-2006.

BACKGROUND: Among persons with HIV infection, low bone mineral density is common and has raised concerns about increased risk of fracture. METHODS: We analyzed data from the HIV Outpatient Study (HOPS), an open prospective cohort study of HIV-infected adults who were followed up at 10 US HIV clinics. We assessed rates of first fractures at any anatomic site during the period 2000-2008. We indirectly standardized the rates of fracture in the HOPS to the general population by age and sex, using data from outpatients in the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS-OPD). We examined factors associated with fractures using Cox proportional hazards modeling. RESULTS: Among 5826 active HOPS patients whose data were analyzed (median baseline age, 40 years; male sex, 79%; white race, 52%; exposure to antiretroviral therapy, 73%), 233 patients had incident fractures (crude annual rates, 59.6-93.5 fractures per 10,000 persons). Age-standardized fracture rates increased from 2000 to 2002 (P = .01) and stabilized thereafter. Among persons aged 25-54 years, both fracture rates and relative proportion of fragility fractures were higher among HOPS patients than among patients in the NHAMCS-OPD. In addition to older age and substance abuse, nadir CD4+ cell count <200 cells/mm(3) (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-2.31), hepatitis C infection (aHR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.13-2.29) and diabetes (aHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.00-2.64) were associated with incident fractures. CONCLUSIONS: Age-adjusted fracture rates among HOPS patients were higher than rates in the general US population during the period 2000-2006. Clinicians should regularly assess HIV-infected persons for fracture risk, especially those with low nadir CD4+ cell counts or other established risk factors for fracture.

Hyponatremia, hypochloremia, and hypoalbuminemia predict an increased risk of mortality during the first year of antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected Zambian and Kenyan women.

Early mortality rates after initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) are high in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined whether serum chemistries at ART initiation predicted mortality among HIV-infected women. From May 2005 to January 2007, we enrolled women initiating ART in a prospective cohort study in Zambia and Kenya. We used Cox proportional hazards models to identify risk factors associated with mortality. Among 661 HIV-infected women, 53 (8%) died during the first year of ART, and tuberculosis was the most common cause of death (32%). Women were more likely to die if they were both hyponatremic (sodium <135 mmol/liter) and hypochloremic (chloride <95 mmol/liter) (37% vs. 6%) or hypoalbuminemic (albumin <34 g/liter, 13% vs. 4%) when initiating ART. A body mass index <18 kg/m(2) [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 5.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6-10.6] and hyponatremia with hypochloremia (aHR 4.5, 95% CI 2.2-9.4) were associated with 1-year mortality after adjusting for country, CD4 cell count, WHO clinical stage, hemoglobin, and albumin. Among women with a CD4 cell count >50 cells/µl, hypoalbuminemia was also a significant predictor of mortality (aHR=3.7, 95% CI 1.4-9.8). Baseline hyponatremia with hypochloremia and hypoalbuminemia predicted mortality in the first year of initiating ART, and these abnormalities might reflect opportunistic infections (e.g., tuberculosis) or advanced HIV disease. Assessment of serum sodium, chloride, and albumin can identify HIV-infected patients at highest risk for mortality who may benefit from more intensive medical management during the first year of ART.

Low vitamin D among HIV-infected adults: prevalence of and risk factors for low vitamin D Levels in a cohort of HIV-infected adults and comparison to prevalence among adults in the US general population.

BACKGROUND: we explored serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) levels and associated factors for insufficiency or deficiency in an adult human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) cohort and compared 25(OH)D levels with those in the general US population. METHODS: using baseline data from the Study to Understand the Natural History of HIV and AIDS in the Era of Effective Therapy (SUN), a prospective, observational cohort study of HIV-infected adults enrolled at 7 HIV specialty clinics in 4 US cities from March 2004 to June 2006, we estimated the prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency (defined as 25(OH)D levels <30 ng/mL), standardized by age, race, and sex. Using multiple logistic regression, we examined risk factors for vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency. RESULTS: among 672 SUN participants with baseline serum 25(OH)D determinations who were not receiving vitamin D supplements, 70.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 68.1%-74.9%) were vitamin D insufficient or deficient, compared with 79.1% (95% CI, 76.7-81.3) of US adults. Factors associated with vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency included black race (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.51; 95% CI, 2.59-7.85), Hispanic ethnicity (aOR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.31-5.90), higher body mass index (aOR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.00-1.09), hypertension (aOR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.10-3.22), lack of exercise (aOR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.80-5.47), exposure to efavirenz (aOR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.18-3.34), higher exposure to ultraviolet light (aOR, .78; 95% CI, .71-.86), renal insufficiency (aOR, .55; 95% CI, .36-.83), and exposure to ritonavir (aOR, .56; 95% CI, .35-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: similar to findings in US adults generally, vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency is highly prevalent among HIV-infected adults and is associated with known risk factors. Observed associations of vitamin D levels with renal insufficiency and with use of ritonavir- and efavirenz-containing regimens are consistent with both HIV-related and therapy-mediated alterations in vitamin D metabolism. Clinicians should consider screening all patients for vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency.

Adult hospitalizations for laboratory-positive influenza during the 2005-2006 through 2007-2008 seasons in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United States have been estimated using modeling techniques with data from pneumonia and influenza hospitalization discharge diagnoses, but they have not been directly estimated from laboratory-positive cases. METHODS: We calculated overall, age-specific, and site-specific rates of laboratory-positive, influenza-associated hospitalization among adults and compared demographic and clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized cases by season with use of data collected by the Emerging Infections Program Network during the 2005-2006 through 2007-2008 influenza seasons. RESULTS: Overall rates of adult influenza-associated hospitalization per 100,000 persons were 9.9 during the 2005-2006 season, 4.8 during the 2006-2007 season, and 18.7 during the 2007-2008 season. Rates of hospitalization varied by Emerging Infections Program site and increased with increasing age. Higher overall and age-specific rates of hospitalization were observed during influenza A (H3) predominant seasons and during periods of increased circulation of influenza B. More than 80% of hospitalized persons each season had > or =1 underlying medical condition, including chronic cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Rates varied by season, age, geographic location, and type/subtype of circulating influenza viruses. Influenza-associated hospitalization surveillance is essential for assessing the relative severity of influenza seasons over time and the burden of influenza-associated complications.