Estimated Doses to the Heart, Lungs and Oesophagus and Risks From Typical UK Radiotherapy for Early Breast Cancer During 2015-2023.

PURPOSE: Breast cancer radiotherapy can increase the risks of heart disease, lung cancer and oesophageal cancer. At present, the best dosimetric predictors of these risks are mean doses to the whole heart, lungs and oesophagus, respectively. We aimed to estimate typical doses to these organs and resulting risks from UK breast cancer radiotherapy. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted of planned or delivered mean doses to the whole heart, lungs or oesophagus from UK breast cancer radiotherapy in studies published during 2015-2023. Average mean doses were summarised for combinations of laterality and clinical targets. Heart disease and lung cancer mortality risks were then estimated using established models. RESULTS: For whole heart, thirteen studies reported 2893 doses. Average mean doses were higher in left than in right-sided radiotherapy and increased with extent of clinical targets. For left-sided radiotherapy, average mean heart doses were: 2.0 Gy (range 1.2-8.0 Gy) breast/chest wall, 2.7 Gy (range 0.6-5.6 Gy) breast/chest wall with either axilla or supraclavicular nodes and 2.9 Gy (range 1.3-4.7 Gy) breast/chest wall with nodes including internal mammary. For right-sided radiotherapy, average mean heart doses were: 1.0 Gy (range 0.3-1.0 Gy) breast/chest wall and 1.2 Gy (range 1.0-1.4 Gy) breast/chest wall with either axilla or supraclavicular nodes. There were no whole heart dose estimates from right internal mammary radiotherapy. For whole lung, six studies reported 2230 doses. Average mean lung doses increased with extent of targets irradiated: 2.6 Gy (range 1.4-3.0 Gy) breast/chest wall, 3.0 Gy (range 0.9-5.1 Gy) breast/chest wall with either axilla or supraclavicular nodes and 7.1 Gy (range 6.7-10.0 Gy) breast/chest wall with nodes including internal mammary. For whole oesophagus, two studies reported 76 doses. Average mean oesophagus doses increased with extent of targets irradiated: 1.4 Gy (range 1.0-2.0 Gy) breast/chest wall with either axilla or supraclavicular nodes and 5.8 Gy (range 1.9-10.0 Gy) breast/chest wall with nodes including internal mammary. CONCLUSIONS: The typical doses to these organs may be combined with dose-response relationships to estimate radiation risks. Estimated 30-year absolute lung cancer mortality risks from modern UK breast cancer radiotherapy for patients irradiated when aged 50 years were 2-6% for long-term continuing smokers, and <1% for non-smokers. Estimated 30-year mortality risks for heart disease were <1%.

Cytotoxic Chemotherapy for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma in England 2010-2017: Survival Outcomes.

AIMS: Cytotoxic chemotherapy is widely used in the management of pancreatic adenocarcinoma as adjuvant treatment after radical surgery and also in advanced disease. The results of randomised trials in selected patient groups provide reliable evidence of comparative treatment efficacy, but studies of population-based observational cohorts provide insight into survival outcomes in routine care. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a large population-based observational cohort study of patients, diagnosed during 2010-2017, who received chemotherapy within the National Health Service in England. We considered overall survival and 30-day all-cause mortality risk after chemotherapy. We conducted a literature search to compare these results to published studies. RESULTS: In total, 9390 patients were included in the cohort. For 1114 patients treated with radical surgery and chemotherapy with curative intent, overall survival from the start of chemotherapy was 75.8% (95% confidence interval 73.3-78.3) at 1 year and 22.0% (18.6-25.3) at 5 years. For 7468 patients treated with non-curative intent, overall survival was 29.6% (28.6-30.6) at 1 year and 2.0% (1.6-2.4) at 5 years. In both groups, poorer performance status at the start of chemotherapy was strongly associated with poorer survival. The risk of 30-day mortality in patients treated with non-curative intent was 13.6% (12.8-14.5). This was higher in younger patients and those with higher stage disease and a poorer performance status. CONCLUSIONS: Survival in this general population was poorer than that published in randomised trials. This study will aid informed discussion with patients regarding anticipated outcomes in routine clinical care.

Enrichment of Patients With Ehlers Danlos Syndrome in Idiopathic Gastroparesis-A Gene Set Enrichment Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Ehlers Danlos syndrome (EDS) is a heritable disorder of the connective tissue usually inherited as an autosomal dominant trait. We observe an enrichment of EDS cases in a gastroparesis clinical study. METHODS: We explored the frequency of EDS cases in 2 consecutive gastroparesis clinical studies. To explore the genetic surrogates of EDS, we have performed whole-genome sequencing analysis and we focused the analyses on the frequencies of consequential variants in core EDS genes. RESULTS: We report a significant enrichment of EDS cases in a set of patients with gastroparesis (14/686 vs 1/5,000 OR 104 (confidence interval 13.7-793.3) P value <0.0001). We report a significant enrichment of variants in EDS genes in patients with idiopathic gastroparesis. DISCUSSION: The enrichment may be suggestive of converging pathways at the heart of etiology or predisposing patients to EDS with gastroparesis.

Save the Mekong Delta from drowning.

Policy must address drivers, not just symptoms, of subsidence.

Passive Animal Surveillance to Identify Ticks in Wisconsin, 2011-2017.

The introduction of new tick species poses a risk to human and animal health. Systematic active surveillance programs are expensive and uncommon. We evaluated a passive animal surveillance program as a monitoring tool to document the geographic distribution and host associations of ticks in Wisconsin. Passive surveillance partners included veterinary medical clinics, domestic animal shelters, and wildlife rehabilitation centers from 35 of the 72 Wisconsin counties. A total of 10,136 tick specimens were collected from 2325 animals from July 2011 to November 2017 and included Dermacentor variabilis Say (29.7% of all ticks), Ixodes texanus Banks (25.5%), Ixodes scapularis Say (19.5%), Haemaphysalis leporispalustris Packard (13.8%), Ixodes cookei Packard (4.4%), and Dermacentor albipictus Packard (1.7%). Less common species (<1% of collection) included Ixodes dentatus Marx, Ixodes sculptus Neumann, Ixodes marxi Banks, Amblyomma americanum Linnaeus, and Rhipicephalus sanguineus Latreille. Of the 2325 animals that were examined, most were domestic dogs (53%), eastern cottontail rabbits (16%), domestic cats (15%), and North American raccoons (11%). An additional 21 mammal and 11 bird species were examined at least once during the six years of the study. New county records are summarized for each species. Public health, academic, and veterinary and animal care partners formed a community of practice enabling effective statewide tick surveillance.

International Variation in Criteria for Internal Mammary Chain Radiotherapy.

AIMS: Evidence has emerged that internal mammary chain (IMC) radiotherapy reduces breast cancer mortality, leading to changes in treatment guidelines. This study investigated current IMC radiotherapy criteria and the percentages of patients irradiated for breast cancer in England who fulfilled them. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic search was undertaken for national guidelines published in English during 2013-2018 presenting criteria for 'consideration of' or 'recommendation for' IMC radiotherapy. Patient and tumour variables were collected for patients who received breast cancer radiotherapy in England during 2012-2016. The percentages of patients fulfilling criteria stipulated in each set of guidelines were calculated. RESULTS: In total, 111 729 women were recorded as receiving adjuvant breast cancer radiotherapy in England during 2012-2016 and full data were available on 48 095 of them. Percentages of patients fulfilling IMC radiotherapy criteria in various national guidelines were: UK Royal College of Radiologists 13% (6035/48 095), UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence 18% (8816/48 095), Germany 32% (15 646/48 095), Ireland 56% (26 846/48 095) and USA 59% (28 373/48 095). Differences between countries occurred because in Ireland and the USA, treatment may be considered in some node-negative patients, whereas in the UK, treatment is considered if at least four axillary nodes are involved or for high-risk patients with one to three positive nodes. In Germany, treatment may be considered for all node-positive patients. CONCLUSIONS: There is substantial variability between countries in criteria for consideration of IMC radiotherapy, despite guidelines being based on the same evidence. This will probably lead to large variations in practice and resource needs worldwide.

Water quality modelling of the Mekong River basin: Climate change and socioeconomics drive flow and nutrient flux changes to the Mekong Delta.

The Mekong delta is recognised as one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas, being subject to a range of environmental pressures including sea level rise, increasing population, and changes in flows and nutrients from its upland catchment. With changing climate and socioeconomics there is a need to assess how the Mekong catchment will be affected in terms of the delivery of water and nutrients into the delta system. Here we apply the Integrated Catchment model (INCA) to the whole Mekong River Basin to simulate flow and water quality, including nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus and soluble reactive phosphorus. The impacts of climate change on all these variables have been assessed across 24 river reaches ranging from the Himalayas down to the delta in Vietnam. We used the UK Met Office PRECIS regionally coupled climate model to downscale precipitation and temperature to the Mekong catchment. This was accomplished using the Global Circulation Model GFDL-CM to provide the boundary conditions under two carbon control strategies, namely representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and a RCP 8.5 scenario. The RCP 4.5 scenario represents the carbon strategy required to meet the Paris Accord, which aims to limit peak global temperatures to below a 2 °C rise whilst seeking to pursue options that limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The RCP 8.5 scenario is associated with a larger 3-4 °C rise. In addition, we also constructed a range of socio-economic scenarios to investigate the potential impacts of changing population, atmospheric pollution, economic growth and land use change up to the 2050s. Results of INCA simulations indicate increases in mean flows of up to 24%, with flood flows in the monsoon period increasing by up to 27%, but with increasing periods of drought up to 2050. A shift in the timing of the monsoon is also simulated, with a 4 week advance in the onset of monsoon flows on average. Decreases in nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations occur primarily due to flow dilution, but fluxes of these nutrients also increase by 5%, which reflects the changing flow, land use change and population changes.

Self-sharpening induces jet-like structure in seafloor gravity currents.

Gravity currents are the primary means by which sediments, solutes and heat are transported across the ocean-floor. Existing theory of gravity current flow employs a statistically-stable model of turbulent diffusion that has been extant since the 1960s. Here we present the first set of detailed spatial data from a gravity current over a rough seafloor that demonstrate that this existing paradigm is not universal. Specifically, in contrast to predictions from turbulent diffusion theory, self-sharpened velocity and concentration profiles and a stable barrier to mixing are observed. Our new observations are explained by statistically-unstable mixing and self-sharpening, by boundary-induced internal gravity waves; as predicted by recent advances in fluid dynamics. Self-sharpening helps explain phenomena such as ultra-long runout of gravity currents and restricted growth of bedforms, and highlights increased geohazard risk to marine infrastructure. These processes likely have broader application, for example to wave-turbulence interaction, and mixing processes in environmental flows.

Impacts of natural and human drivers on the multi-decadal morphological evolution of tidally-influenced deltas.

The world's deltas are at risk of being drowned due to rising relative sea levels as a result of climate change, decreasing supplies of fluvial sediment, and human responses to these changes. This paper analyses how delta morphology evolves over multi-decadal timescales under environmental change using a process-based model. Model simulations over 102 years are used to explore the influence of three key classes of environmental change, both individually and in combination: (i) varying combinations of fluvial water and sediment discharges; (ii) varying rates of relative sea-level rise; and (iii) selected human interventions within the delta, comprising polder-dykes and cross-dams. The results indicate that tidal asymmetry and rate of sediment supply together affect residual flows and delta morphodynamics (indicated by sub-aerial delta area, rates of progradation and aggradation). When individual drivers of change act in combination, delta building processes such as the distribution of sediment flux, aggradation, and progradation are disrupted by the presence of isolated polder-dykes or cross-dams. This suggests that such interventions, unless undertaken at a very large scale, can lead to unsustainable delta building processes. Our findings can inform management choices in real-world tidally-influenced deltas, while the methodology can provide insights into other dynamic morphological systems.

Prevalence and Distribution of Human and Tick Infections with the Ehrlichia muris-Like Agent and Anaplasma phagocytophilum in Wisconsin, 2009-2015.

Ehrlichiosis and anaplasmosis are important emerging tickborne zoonoses that affect both humans and animals. Knowledge of the geographic distribution and prevalence of Ehrlichia spp. and Anaplasma phagocytophilum in Wisconsin is important information as a baseline for future comparisons. Reported human cases between 2009 and 2015 were identified using the Wisconsin Electronic Disease Surveillance System (WEDSS) and mapped by county of residence. Vector surveillance was established using ticks collected from animals by partners, including veterinary medical clinics, domestic animal shelters, and wildlife rehabilitation centers from 40 Wisconsin counties. A total of 1835 Ixodes scapularis tick specimens (larvae, nymphs, and adults) were collected from 18 different domestic and wildlife species from July 2011 to November 2015. An additional 1136 nymphs were collected by drag sampling at 23 locations in 19 counties in 2015. A real-time PCR assay that detects and distinguishes several Ehrlichia species, including a pathogenic Ehrlichia muris-like agent (EMLA), and A. phagocytophilum was performed on adult and nymphal ticks. A total of 757 I. scapularis ticks (predominately adults) were tested from animal collections, with 67 (8.9%) individuals positive for A. phagocytophilum and 22 (2.9%) positive for EMLA DNA. Of the 1150 questing nymphs, 62 (5.4%) were positive for A. phagocytophilum and 10 (0.9%) were positive for EMLA DNA. Specimens of I. scapularis that were positive for A. phagocytophilum were found in 27 of the 33 counties surveyed. Specimens that were positive for EMLA were less common and were found in nine counties. This study provides the first statewide survey of I. scapularis ticks for these pathogens and indicates that the risk of human exposure is widely distributed.

Sorafenib for the Treatment of Advanced Hepatocellular Cancer - a UK Audit.

AIMS: Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. We carried out a national audit of UK patients treated with sorafenib as standard-of-care and those treated with systemic therapy in first-line trials. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sorafenib-treated and trial-treated patients were identified via the Cancer Drugs Fund and local databases. Data were collected retrospectively from medical records according to a standard case report form. The primary outcome measure was overall survival, estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Data were obtained for 448 sorafenib-treated patients from 15 hospitals. The median age was 68 years (range 17-89) and 75% had performance status ≤ 1. At baseline, 77% were Child-Pugh A and 16.1% Child-Pugh B; 38% were albumin-bilirubin grade 1 (ALBI-1) and 48% ALBI-2; 23% were Barcelona Clinic Liver Classification B (BCLC-B) and 72% BCLC-C. The median time on sorafenib was 3.6 months, with a mean daily dose of 590 mg. The median overall survival for 448 evaluable sorafenib-treated patients was 8.5 months. There were significant differences in overall survival comparing Child-Pugh A versus Child-Pugh B (9.5 versus 4.6 months), ALBI-1 versus ALBI-2 (12.9 versus 5.9 months) and BCLC-B versus BCLC-C (13.0 versus 8.3 months). For trial-treated patients (n=109), the median overall survival was 8.1 months and this was not significantly different from the sorafenib-treated patients. CONCLUSION: For Child-Pugh A patients with good performance status, survival outcomes were similar to those reported in global randomised controlled trials. Patients with ALBI grade > 1, Child-Pugh B or poor performance status seem to derive limited benefit from sorafenib treatment.

Beneficial effects of relaxin on motility characteristics of stored boar spermatozoa.

BACKGROUND: Relaxin is detected in seminal plasma of many species and its association with sperm motility may be beneficial in some aspects of assisted reproduction. Here, we immunolocalized relaxin receptors and investigated the effects of exogenous relaxin on motility characteristics, viability, and cAMP content of boar spermatozoa after storage. METHODS: Commercial doses of boar semen were obtained on the collection day (Day 0) and kept in shipping containers at room temperature for up to 4 days (Day 4). On Day 0, spermatozoa were fixed for immunofluorescence detection of relaxin receptors RXFP1 and RXFP2 (Experiment 1). Semen aliquots were taken from the same dose at Day 0, Day 1, and Day 2 (Experiment 2a), and Day 2 and Day 4 (Experiment 2b) for analyses. Alive spermatozoa were purified and incubated (1 h-37°C) with 0, 50, or 100 ng relaxin/ml (Experiment 2a) and 0, 100, or 500 ng relaxin/ml (Experiment 2b). Afterward, aliquots of each treatment group were subjected to motility (Experiments 2), viability (Experiment 3) analyses, and cAMP quantification (Experiment 4). Data (3-4 independent replicates) were statistically analyzed (ANOVA followed by pairwise comparisons) and p values less or equal to 0.05 was set for significant difference. RESULTS: Both RXFP1 and RXFP2 receptors were immunolocalized on the entire spermatozoon. Relaxin concentration of 100 ng/ml significantly improved the proportions of motile, progressive, and rapid spermatozoa up to Day 2. Only 500 ng relaxin/ml provided beneficial effects on Day 4. The viability of spermatozoa was not affected by relaxin (100 ng/ml) during storage, but the extent of mitochondria membrane damages was significantly decreased. Furthermore, relaxin did not affect the cAMP contents of spermatozoa during storage, in our conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Relaxin could be a valuable motility booster of stored- or aged-spermatozoa for assisted reproduction techniques. However, the related-intracellular signaling cascades of relaxin in boar spermatozoa remain undetermined.

Effect of radiotherapy after mastectomy and axillary surgery on 10-year recurrence and 20-year breast cancer mortality: meta-analysis of individual patient data for 8135 women in 22 randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Postmastectomy radiotherapy was shown in previous meta-analyses to reduce the risks of both recurrence and breast cancer mortality in all women with node-positive disease considered together. However, the benefit in women with only one to three positive lymph nodes is uncertain. We aimed to assess the effect of radiotherapy in these women after mastectomy and axillary dissection. METHODS: We did a meta-analysis of individual data for 8135 women randomly assigned to treatment groups during 1964-86 in 22 trials of radiotherapy to the chest wall and regional lymph nodes after mastectomy and axillary surgery versus the same surgery but no radiotherapy. Follow-up lasted 10 years for recurrence and to Jan 1, 2009, for mortality. Analyses were stratified by trial, individual follow-up year, age at entry, and pathological nodal status. FINDINGS: 3786 women had axillary dissection to at least level II and had zero, one to three, or four or more positive nodes. All were in trials in which radiotherapy included the chest wall, supraclavicular or axillary fossa (or both), and internal mammary chain. For 700 women with axillary dissection and no positive nodes, radiotherapy had no significant effect on locoregional recurrence (two-sided significance level [2p]>0·1), overall recurrence (rate ratio [RR], irradiated vs not, 1·06, 95% CI 0·76-1·48, 2p>0·1), or breast cancer mortality (RR 1·18, 95% CI 0·89-1·55, 2p>0·1). For 1314 women with axillary dissection and one to three positive nodes, radiotherapy reduced locoregional recurrence (2p<0·00001), overall recurrence (RR 0·68, 95% CI 0·57-0·82, 2p=0·00006), and breast cancer mortality (RR 0·80, 95% CI 0·67-0·95, 2p=0·01). 1133 of these 1314 women were in trials in which systemic therapy (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil, or tamoxifen) was given in both trial groups and, for them, radiotherapy again reduced locoregional recurrence (2p<0·00001), overall recurrence (RR 0·67, 95% CI 0·55-0·82, 2p=0·00009), and breast cancer mortality (RR 0·78, 95% CI 0·64-0·94, 2p=0·01). For 1772 women with axillary dissection and four or more positive nodes, radiotherapy reduced locoregional recurrence (2p<0·00001), overall recurrence (RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·69-0·90, 2p=0·0003), and breast cancer mortality (RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·77-0·99, 2p=0·04). INTERPRETATION: After mastectomy and axillary dissection, radiotherapy reduced both recurrence and breast cancer mortality in the women with one to three positive lymph nodes in these trials even when systemic therapy was given. For today's women, who in many countries are at lower risk of recurrence, absolute gains might be smaller but proportional gains might be larger because of more effective radiotherapy. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council.

Radiation-related mortality from heart disease and lung cancer more than 20 years after radiotherapy for breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Radiation-related heart disease and lung cancer can occur following radiotherapy for breast cancer but the duration of any mortality risk is uncertain. METHODS: Mortality ratios, by laterality of breast cancer, were estimated using Poisson regression for 558 871 women recorded with breast cancer during 1973-2008 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registries and followed until 01 January 2009. RESULTS: For women diagnosed with breast cancer during 1973-1982 and given radiotherapy shortly afterwards, the cardiac mortality ratios, left-sided vs right-sided, were 1.19 (1.03-1.38), 1.35 (1.05-1.73), 1.64 (1.26-2.14) and 1.90 (1.52-2.37) at <10, 10-14, 15-19 and 20+ years since diagnosis (2p for trend: <0.001). The lung cancer mortality ratios, ipsilateral vs contralateral, in these women were 1.05 (0.57-1.94), 2.04 (1.28-3.23) and 3.87 (2.19-6.82) at <10, 10-19 and 20+ years, respectively, (2p for trend: 0.002). For women irradiated during 1983-92 there was evidence of radiation-related mortality for lung cancer, but not for heart disease. For women irradiated since 1993 there is, as yet, little evidence of any radiation-related mortality. CONCLUSION: In this population, the radiation-related risks were larger in the third decade after exposure than during the first two decades.

Impact of smoking on mortality and life expectancy in Japanese smokers: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking on overall mortality and life expectancy in a large Japanese population, including some who smoked throughout adult life. DESIGN: The Life Span Study, a population-based prospective study, initiated in 1950. SETTING: Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. PARTICIPANTS: Smoking status for 27,311 men and 40,662 women was obtained during 1963-92. Mortality from one year after first ascertainment of smoking status until 1 January 2008 has been analysed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality from all causes in current, former, and never smokers. RESULTS: Smokers born in later decades tended to smoke more cigarettes per day than those born earlier, and to have started smoking at a younger age. Among those born during 1920-45 (median 1933) and who started smoking before age 20 years, men smoked on average 23 cigarettes/day, while women smoked 17 cigarettes/day, and, for those who continued smoking, overall mortality was more than doubled in both sexes (rate ratios versus never smokers: men 2.21 (95% confidence interval 1.97 to 2.48), women 2.61 (1.98 to 3.44)) and life expectancy was reduced by almost a decade (8 years for men, 10 years for women). Those who stopped smoking before age 35 avoided almost all of the excess risk among continuing smokers, while those who stopped smoking before age 45 avoided most of it. CONCLUSIONS: The lower smoking related hazards reported previously in Japan may have been due to earlier birth cohorts starting to smoke when older and smoking fewer cigarettes per day. In Japan, as elsewhere, those who start smoking in early adult life and continue smoking lose on average about a decade of life. Much of the risk can, however, be avoided by giving up smoking before age 35, and preferably well before age 35.

Developmental changes in human dural innervation.

INTRODUCTION: There is limited published work on the abundant innervation of the human dura mater, its role and responses to injury in humans. The dura not only provides mechanical support for the brain but may also have other functions, including control of the outflow of venous blood from the brain via the dural sinuses. The trigeminal nerve supplies sensory fibres to the dura as well as the leptomeninges, intracranial blood vessels, face, nose and mouth. Its relatively large size in embryonic life suggests an importance in development; the earliest fetal reflexes, mediated by the trigeminal, are seen by 8 weeks. Trigeminal functions vital to the fetus include the coordination of sucking and swallowing and the protective oxygen-conserving reflexes. Like other parts of the nervous system, the trigeminal undergoes pruning and remodelling throughout development. METHODS: We have investigated changes in the innervation of the human dura with age in 27 individuals aged between 31 weeks of gestation and 60 years of postnatal life. Using immunocytochemistry with antibodies to neurofilament, we have found significant changes in the density of dural innervation with age RESULTS: The density of innervation increased between 31 and 40 weeks of gestation, peaking at term and decreasing in the subsequent 3 months, remaining low until the sixth decade. CONCLUSIONS: Our observations are consistent with animal studies but are, to our knowledge, the first to show age-related changes in the density of innervation in the human dura. They provide new insights into the functions of the human dura during development.

Comparisons between different polychemotherapy regimens for early breast cancer: meta-analyses of long-term outcome among 100,000 women in 123 randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Moderate differences in efficacy between adjuvant chemotherapy regimens for breast cancer are plausible, and could affect treatment choices. We sought any such differences. METHODS: We undertook individual-patient-data meta-analyses of the randomised trials comparing: any taxane-plus-anthracycline-based regimen versus the same, or more, non-taxane chemotherapy (n=44,000); one anthracycline-based regimen versus another (n=7000) or versus cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF; n=18,000); and polychemotherapy versus no chemotherapy (n=32,000). The scheduled dosages of these three drugs and of the anthracyclines doxorubicin (A) and epirubicin (E) were used to define standard CMF, standard 4AC, and CAF and CEF. Log-rank breast cancer mortality rate ratios (RRs) are reported. FINDINGS: In trials adding four separate cycles of a taxane to a fixed anthracycline-based control regimen, extending treatment duration, breast cancer mortality was reduced (RR 0·86, SE 0·04, two-sided significance [2p]=0·0005). In trials with four such extra cycles of a taxane counterbalanced in controls by extra cycles of other cytotoxic drugs, roughly doubling non-taxane dosage, there was no significant difference (RR 0·94, SE 0·06, 2p=0·33). Trials with CMF-treated controls showed that standard 4AC and standard CMF were equivalent (RR 0·98, SE 0·05, 2p=0·67), but that anthracycline-based regimens with substantially higher cumulative dosage than standard 4AC (eg, CAF or CEF) were superior to standard CMF (RR 0·78, SE 0·06, 2p=0·0004). Trials versus no chemotherapy also suggested greater mortality reductions with CAF (RR 0·64, SE 0·09, 2p<0·0001) than with standard 4AC (RR 0·78, SE 0·09, 2p=0·01) or standard CMF (RR 0·76, SE 0·05, 2p<0·0001). In all meta-analyses involving taxane-based or anthracycline-based regimens, proportional risk reductions were little affected by age, nodal status, tumour diameter or differentiation (moderate or poor; few were well differentiated), oestrogen receptor status, or tamoxifen use. Hence, largely independently of age (up to at least 70 years) or the tumour characteristics currently available to us for the patients selected to be in these trials, some taxane-plus-anthracycline-based or higher-cumulative-dosage anthracycline-based regimens (not requiring stem cells) reduced breast cancer mortality by, on average, about one-third. 10-year overall mortality differences paralleled breast cancer mortality differences, despite taxane, anthracycline, and other toxicities. INTERPRETATION: 10-year gains from a one-third breast cancer mortality reduction depend on absolute risks without chemotherapy (which, for oestrogen-receptor-positive disease, are the risks remaining with appropriate endocrine therapy). Low absolute risk implies low absolute benefit, but information was lacking about tumour gene expression markers or quantitative immunohistochemistry that might help to predict risk, chemosensitivity, or both. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK; British Heart Foundation; UK Medical Research Council.