ABSTRACT
BackgroundWorldwide, it has been observed that there is a strong association between the severity of COVID-19 and with being over 40 years of age, having diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension and/or obesity. ObjectiveTo compare the probability of death caused by COVID-19 in patients with comorbidities during three periods defined for this study as follows: first wave (March 23 to July 12, 2020), interwave period (July 13 to October 25, 2020), and the second wave (October 26, 2020, to March 29, 2021) using the different fatality rates observed in Mexico City. MethodsThe cohort studied included individuals over 20 years of age. During the first wave (symptomatic), the interwave period, and the second wave (symptomatic and asymptomatic), participants were diagnosed using nasopharyngeal swabs taken in kiosks. Symptomatic individuals with risk factors for serious disease or death were referred to hospital. SARS-CoV-2 infection was defined by real time polymerase chain reaction in all hospitalized patients. All data from hospitalized patients and outpatients were added to the SISVER database. ResultsThe total cohort size for this study was 2,260,156 persons (having a mean age of 43.1 years). Of these, 8.6% suffered from DM, 11.6% from hypertension, and 9.7% from obesity. Of the total of 2,260,156 persons, 666,694 tested positive (29.5%) to SARS CoV-2, (with a mean age of 45). During the first wave, 82,489 tested positive; in the interwave period, 112,115; and during the second wave, 472,090. That is, a considerable increase in the number of cases of infection was observed in all age groups between the first and second waves (an increase of +472% on the first wave). Of the infected persons, a total of 85,587 (12.8%) were hospitalized: 24,023 in the first wave (29.1% of those who tested positive in this period); 16,935 (15.1%) during the interwave period, and 44,629 (9.5%) in the second wave, which represents an increase of 85.77% on the first wave. Of the hospitalized patients, there were 42,979 deaths (50.2% of those hospitalized), in the first wave, 11,964 (49.8% of those hospitalized in this period), during the interwave period, 6,794 (40.1%), and in the second wave 24,221 (54.3%), an increase of +102.4% between the first wave and the second. While within the general population, the probability of a patient dying having both COVID-19 and one of the specified comorbidities (DM, obesity, or arterial hypertension) showed a systematic reduction across all age groups, the probability of death for a hospitalized patient with comorbidities increased across all age groups during the second wave. When comparing the fatality rate of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the second wave with those of the first wave and the interwave period, a significant increase was observed across all age groups, even in individuals without comorbidities. ConclusionThe data from this study show a considerable increase in the number of detected cases of infection in all age groups between the first and second waves. In addition, 12.8% of those infected were hospitalized for severe COVID-19, representing an increase of +85.9% from the first wave to the second. A high mortality rate was observed among hospitalized patients (>50%), as was a higher probability of death in hospitalized COVID-19 patients with comorbidities for all age groups during the second wave, although there had been a slight decrease during the interwave period. SUMMARY BOXO_ST_ABSWhat is already known?C_ST_ABSWorldwide the resurging of COVID-19 cases in waves has been observed. In Mexico, like in the rest of the world, we have observed surges of SARS CoV-2 infections, COVID-19 hospitalizations and fatal outcomes followed by decreases leading to local minima. Pre-existing health conditions such as being older, having diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension and/or obesity has been observed to be associated with an increase in the severity of COVID-19. What are the new findings?O_LIBetween the first and second waves, considerable increases were observed in the number of detected cases of infection (+472%), in the number of hospitalized subjects (+85.9%), and the number of hospitalized subjects and deaths (+102.4%) in all age groups. C_LIO_LIWhen analysing only hospitalized individuals, with or without comorbidities, the Case Fatality Rate was high (50.2%), the probability of death increased considerably in all age groups between the first and second waves. This increase was more noticeable in those individuals with previously identified comorbidities (DM, hypertension, or obesity). C_LIO_LIAn increased probability of death among individuals without comorbidities was observed between the first and second waves. C_LI What do the new findings imply?During the second wave, demand for hospitalization increased, magnifying the impact of age and comorbidities as risk factors. This situation highlights the importance of decreasing the prevalence of comorbidities among the population.
ABSTRACT
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is one of the most concerning health problems around the globe. We report the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.519 in Mexico City. This variant represented up to 90% of sequenced cases in February 2021. It is characterized by three amino acid changes in the spike protein: T478K, P681H, and T732A. We report the effective reproduction number of B.1.1.519 and present evidence of its geographical origin based on phylogenetic analysis. We also studied its evolution via haplotype analysis and identified the most recurrent haplotypes. Finally, we studied the clinical impact of B.1.1.519: patients infected with variant B.1.1.519 showed a highly significant adjusted odds ratio (aOR) increase of 1.85 over non-B.1.1.519 patients for developing a severe/critical outcome (P = 0.000296, 1.33-2.6 95% CI) and a 2.35-fold increase for hospitalization (P = 0.005, 1.32-4.34 95% CI). The continuous monitoring of this and other variants will be required to control the ongoing pandemic as it evolves.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUNDPrognostic biomarkers are needed to identify patients at high-risk for severe COVID-19. Galectin-3 is known to drive neutrophil infiltration and release of pro-inflammatory cytokines contributing to airway inflammation. METHODSIn this prospective cohort, we assessed galectin-3 levels in 156 hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19. COVID-19 patients were diagnosed as either critical (>50% lung damage) or moderate (<50% of lung damage) based on computerized tomography. Patients who required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and/or died during hospitalization were categorized as having a severe outcome, and a non-severe outcome if they were discharged and none of the former occurred. RESULTSElevated serum galectin-3 was significantly higher in critical patients compared to moderate ones (35.91 {+/-} 19.37 ng/mL vs. 25 {+/-} 14.85 ng/mL, p<0.0001). Patients who progressed to a severe outcome including IMV and/or in-hospital death, presented higher galectin-3 levels (41.17 ng/mL [IQR 29.71 - 52.25] vs. 23.76 ng/mL [IQR 15.78 - 33.97] compared to those of a non-severe outcome, p<0.0001). Galectin-3 discriminated well between those with severe and non-severe outcome, with an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67 - 0.84, p<0.0001) and was found to be an independent predictor of severe outcome regardless of the percentage of lung involvement. Additionally, the combination of galectin-3, CRP and albumin, significantly improved its individual predicting ability with an AUC 0.84 (95% CI 0.77 - 0.91, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONCirculating galectin-3 levels can be used to predict severe outcomes in COVID-19 patients, including the requirement of mechanical ventilation and/or death, regardless of the initial severity of the disease.
