Climate change drives migratory range shift via individual plasticity in shearwaters.

How individual animals respond to climate change is key to whether populations will persist or go extinct. Yet, few studies investigate how changes in individual behavior underpin these population-level phenomena. Shifts in the distributions of migratory animals can occur through adaptation in migratory behaviors, but there is little understanding of how selection and plasticity contribute to population range shift. Here, we use long-term geolocator tracking of Balearic shearwaters (Puffinus mauretanicus) to investigate how year-to-year changes in individual birds' migrations underpin a range shift in the post-breeding migration. We demonstrate a northward shift in the post-breeding range and show that this is brought about by individual plasticity in migratory destination, with individuals migrating further north in response to changes in sea-surface temperature. Furthermore, we find that when individuals migrate further, they return faster, perhaps minimizing delays in return to the breeding area. Birds apparently judge the increased distance that they will need to migrate via memory of the migration route, suggesting that spatial cognitive mechanisms may contribute to this plasticity and the resulting range shift. Our study exemplifies the role that individual behavior plays in populations' responses to environmental change and highlights some of the behavioral mechanisms that might be key to understanding and predicting species persistence in response to climate change.

How might magnetic secular variation impact avian philopatry?

A tendency to return to the natal/breeding site, 'philopatry', is widespread amongst migratory birds. It has been suggested that a magnetic 'map' could underpin such movements, though it is unclear how a magnetic map might be impacted by gradual drift in the Earth's magnetic field ('secular variation'). Here, using the International Geomagnetic Reference Field, we quantified how secular variation translates to movement in the implied positions at which combinations of different magnetic cues (inclination, declination and intensity) intersect, noting that the magnitude of such movements is determined by the magnitude of the movements of each of the two isolines, and the angle between their movement vectors. We propose that magnetic parameters varying in a near-parallel arrangement are unlikely to be used as a bi-coordinate map during philopatry, but that birds could use near-orthogonal magnetic gradient cues as a bi-coordinate map if augmented with navigation using more local cues. We further suggest that uni-coordinate magnetic information could also provide a philopatry mechanism that is substantially less impacted by secular variation than a bi-coordinate 'map'. We propose that between-year shifts in the position of magnetic coordinates might provide a priori predictions for changes in the breeding sites of migratory birds.