Spatially explicit modeling of schistosomiasis risk in eastern China based on a synthesis of epidemiological, environmental and intermediate host genetic data.

Schistosomiasis japonica is a major parasitic disease threatening millions of people in China. Though overall prevalence was greatly reduced during the second half of the past century, continued persistence in some areas and cases of re-emergence in others remain major concerns. As many regions in China are approaching disease elimination, obtaining quantitative data on Schistosoma japonicum parasites is increasingly difficult. This study examines the distribution of schistosomiasis in eastern China, taking advantage of the fact that the single intermediate host serves as a major transmission bottleneck. Epidemiological, population-genetic and high-resolution ecological data are combined to construct a predictive model capable of estimating the probability that schistosomiasis occurs in a target area ("spatially explicit schistosomiasis risk"). Results show that intermediate host genetic parameters are correlated with the distribution of endemic disease areas, and that five explanatory variables--altitude, minimum temperature, annual precipitation, genetic distance, and haplotype diversity-discriminate between endemic and non-endemic zones. Model predictions are correlated with human infection rates observed at the county level. Visualization of the model indicates that the highest risks of disease occur in the Dongting and Poyang lake regions, as expected, as well as in some floodplain areas of the Yangtze River. High risk areas are interconnected, suggesting the complex hydrological interplay of Dongting and Poyang lakes with the Yangtze River may be important for maintaining schistosomiasis in eastern China. Results demonstrate the value of genetic parameters for risk modeling, and particularly for reducing model prediction error. The findings have important consequences both for understanding the determinants of the current distribution of S. japonicum infections, and for designing future schistosomiasis surveillance and control strategies. The results also highlight how genetic information on taxa that constitute bottlenecks to disease transmission can be of value for risk modeling.

Modeling the combined influence of host dispersal and waterborne fate and transport on pathogen spread in complex landscapes.

Environmental models, often applied to questions on the fate and transport of chemical hazards, have recently become important in tracing certain environmental pathogens to their upstream sources of contamination. These tools, such as first order decay models applied to contaminants in surface waters, offer promise for quantifying the fate and transport of pathogens with multiple environmental stages and/or multiple hosts, in addition to those pathogens whose environmental stages are entirely waterborne. Here we consider the fate and transport capabilities of the human schistosome Schistosoma japonicum, which exhibits two waterborne stages and is carried by an amphibious intermediate snail host. We present experimentally-derived dispersal estimates for the intermediate snail host and fate and transport estimates for the passive downstream diffusion of cercariae, the waterborne, human-infective parasite stage. Using a one dimensional advective transport model exhibiting first-order decay, we simulate the added spatial reach and relative increase in cercarial concentrations that dispersing snail hosts contribute to downstream sites. Simulation results suggest that snail dispersal can substantially increase the concentrations of cercariae reaching downstream locations, relative to no snail dispersal, effectively putting otherwise isolated downstream sites at increased risk of exposure to cercariae from upstream sources. The models developed here can be applied to other infectious diseases with multiple life-stages and hosts, and have important implications for targeted ecological control of disease spread.

Five-year longitudinal assessment of the downstream impact on schistosomiasis transmission following closure of the Three Gorges Dam.

BACKGROUND: Schistosoma japonicum is a major public health concern in the Peoples' Republic of China (PRC), with about 800,000 people infected and another 50 million living in areas at risk of infection. Based on ecological, environmental, population genetic and molecular factors, schistosomiasis transmission in PRC can be categorised into four discrete ecosystems or transmission modes. It is predicted that, long-term, the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) will impact upon the transmission of schistosomiasis in the PRC, with varying degree across the four transmission modes. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We undertook longitudinal surveillance from 2002 to 2006 in sentinel villages of the three transmission modes below the TGD across four provinces (Hunan, Jiangxi, Hubei and Anhui) to determine whether there was any immediate impact of the TGD on schistosomiasis transmission. Eight sentinel villages were selected to represent both province and transmission mode. The primary end point measured was human incidence. Here we present the results of this five-year longitudinal cohort study. Results showed that the incidence of human S. japonicum infection declined considerably within individual villages and overall mode over the course of the study. This is also reflected in the yearly odds ratios (adjusted) for infection risk that showed significant (P<0.01) downward trends in all modes over the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The decrease in human S. japonicum incidence observed across all transmission modes in this study can probably be attributed to the annual human and bovine PZQ chemotherapy. If an increase in schistosome transmission had occurred as a result of the TGD, it would be of negligible size compared to the treatment induced decline seen here. It appears therefore that there has been virtually no immediate impact of the TGD on schistosomiasis transmission downstream of the dam.

Stirred, not shaken: genetic structure of the intermediate snail host Oncomelania hupensis robertsoni in an historically endemic schistosomiasis area.

BACKGROUND: Oncomelania hupensis robertsoni is the sole intermediate host for Schistosoma japonicum in western China. Given the close co-evolutionary relationships between snail host and parasite, there is interest in understanding the distribution of distinct snail phylogroups as well as regional population structures. Therefore, this study focuses on these aspects in a re-emergent schistosomiasis area known to harbour representatives of two phylogroups - the Deyang-Mianyang area in Sichuan Province, China. Based on a combination of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA, the following questions were addressed: 1) the phylogeography of the two O. h. robertsoni phylogroups, 2) regional and local population structure in space and time, and 3) patterns of local dispersal under different isolation-by-distance scenarios. RESULTS: The phylogenetic analyses confirmed the existence of two distinct phylogroups within O. h. robertsoni. In the study area, phylogroups appear to be separated by a mountain range. Local specimens belonging to the respective phylogroups form monophyletic clades, indicating a high degree of lineage endemicity. Molecular clock estimations reveal that local lineages are at least 0.69-1.58 million years (My) old and phylogeographical analyses demonstrate that local, watershed and regional effects contribute to population structure. For example, Analyses of Molecular Variances (AMOVAs) show that medium-scale watersheds are well reflected in population structures and Mantel tests indicate isolation-by-distance effects along waterways. CONCLUSIONS: The analyses revealed a deep, complex and hierarchical structure in O. h. robertsoni, likely reflecting a long and diverse evolutionary history. The findings have implications for understanding disease transmission. From a co-evolutionary standpoint, the divergence of the two phylogroups raises species level questions in O. h. robertsoni and also argues for future studies relative to the distinctness of the respective parasites. The endemicity of snail lineages at the regional level supports the concept of endemic schistosomiasis areas and calls for future geospatial analyses for a better understanding of respective boundaries. Finally, local snail dispersal mainly occurs along waterways and can be best described by using cost distance, thus potentially enabling a more precise modelling of snail, and therefore, parasite dispersal.

Impact of changing water levels and weather on Oncomelania hupensis hupensis populations, the snail host of Schistosoma japonicum, downstream of the Three Gorges Dam.

Increasing evidence indicates that dams impact riverine ecosystems and human diseases. Poyang Lake, one of the largest schistosomiasis endemic environments in China, will change due to the construction of the Yangtze River Three Gorges Dam. We assess changes in Oncomelania hupensis hupensis, the snail host for Schistosoma japonicum, in response to changing water levels and weather from 1998 to 2002. In the 5 years following the major flooding of Poyang Lake in 1998, seasonal water levels have gradually decreased, concomitant with decreases in mean and variance of fall snail densities. Nonlinear relationships suggest that the highest spring density is associated with current, 2-, and 3-month prior temperatures of 18 degrees, 9.1 degrees, and 5.8 degrees C, while the highest fall density is associated with 2- and 3-month prior water levels of 17 and 18 m, respectively. This suggests that lower, more stable water levels downstream of the dam may result in a reduction in mean fall densities and their variance. However, additional data are needed to determine whether snail populations that are typically destroyed by seasonal floods may live longer in more stable environments created by the dam.

Multiple near-identical genotypes of Schistosoma japonicum can occur in snails and have implications for population-genetic analyses.

We genotyped (using 16 or 17 microsatellite loci) numerous adult Schistosoma japonicum raised in rabbits exposed to pooled cercariae from small numbers of naturally infected snails from several localities in China. As expected, duplicate multi-locus genotypes (MLGs) were found among these worms. Additionally, many more MLGs, often near-identical, were found than snails used as sources of cercariae. Explanations for these results include (i) genotyping errors, (ii) development within each infected snail of multiple sibling miracidia and (iii) somatic mutation producing genetically varied cercariae from a single miracidium. To control for genotyping errors we re-analysed samples from many individual worms, including repeating the initial PCR. Explanations invoking the development of multiple sibling miracidia within a single snail are not likely to be correct because almost all duplicate MLGs fell within same-sex clusters in a principal coordinates analysis. We would expect both sexes to be represented in a multi-miracidium infection. In addition, we exposed several snails to infection by a single miracidium. One such snail, via an experimentally infected mouse, yielded 48 adult worms. The presence of at least nine near-identical MLGs among these worms was confirmed by re-genotyping. We regard somatic mutation as the most likely explanation for our results. The implications of multiple MLGs for population-genetic studies in S. japonicum are discussed.

Environmental effects on parasitic disease transmission exemplified by schistosomiasis in western China.

Environmental effects on the transmission of many parasitic diseases are well recognized, but the role of specific factors like climate and agricultural practices in modulating transmission is seldom characterized quantitatively. Based on studies of Schistosoma japonicum transmission in irrigated agricultural environments in western China, a mathematical model was used to quantify environmental impacts on transmission intensity. The model was calibrated by using field data from intervention studies in three villages and simulated to predict the effects of alternative control options. Both the results of these interventions and earlier epidemiological findings confirm the central role of environmental factors, particularly those relating to snail habitat and agricultural and sanitation practices. Moreover, the findings indicate the inadequacy of current niclosamide-praziquantel strategies alone to achieve sustainable interruption of transmission in some endemic areas. More generally, the analysis suggests a village-specific index of transmission potential and how this potential is modulated by time-varying factors, including climatological variables, seasonal water-contact patterns, and irrigation practices. These time-variable factors, a village's internal potential, and its connectedness to its neighbors provide a framework for evaluating the likelihood of sustained schistosomiasis transmission and suggest an approach to quantifying the role of environmental factors for other parasitic diseases.

A drug-based intervention study on the importance of buffaloes for human Schistosoma japonicum infection around Poyang Lake, People's Republic of China.

Schistosomiasis japonica is a zoonosis of major public health importance in southern China. We undertook a drug intervention to test the hypothesis that buffalo are major reservoirs for human infection in the marshlands/lake areas, where one million people are infected. We compared human and buffalo infection rates and intensity in an intervention village (Jishan), where humans and buffalo were treated with praziquantel, and a control village (Hexi), where only humans were treated, in the Poyang Lake region. Over the four-year study, human incidence in Jishan decreased but increased in Hexi. Adjustment of incidence by age, sex, water exposure, year, and village further confirmed the decreased human infection in Jishan. Chemotherapy for buffaloes resulted in a decrease in buffalo infection rates in Jishan, which coincided with the reduction in human infection rates there in the last two years of the study. Mathematical modeling predicted that buffalo are responsible for 75% of human transmission in Jishan.

Factors influencing the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in the mountains of Sichuan Province of China.

Twenty villages in the Anning River Valley of southwestern Sichuan China were surveyed for Schistosoma japonicum infections in humans and domestic animals. Also surveyed were human water contact patterns, snail populations, cercarial risk in irrigation systems, and agricultural land use. Few animals were infected, while village prevalence of infection in humans ranged from 3% to 68% and average village eggs per gram of stool ranged from 0 to 110. Except for occupation and education, individual characteristics were not strong determinants of infection intensity within a village. Differences in human infection intensity between these villages are strongly associated with crop type, with low-intensity villages principally growing rice, in contrast to villages devoting more land to vegetables and tobacco. Cercarial risk in village irrigation systems is associated with snail density and human infection intensity through the use of manure-based fertilizer. Some of the agricultural and environmental factors associated with infection risk can be quantified using remote sensing technology.

A baseline study of importance of bovines for human Schistosoma japonicum infections around Poyang Lake, China: villages studied and snail sampling strategy.

An epidemiologic survey among four administrative villages around Poyang Lake, in Jiangxi Province, China (two experimental and two controls) is being conducted to determine if bovine infections are responsible for the persistence of human schistosomiasis transmission on Yangtze River marshlands. A previously published paper presented the experimental design and baseline data for humans and bovines. This paper presents basic data for the four villages using remote sensing, and baseline data for snails that includes geographic information systems and remote sensing technology to classify the areas of bovine grazing ranges and habitats suitable for snails. A new method for sampling Oncomelania snails in China is used to determine the distribution, density, and infection rates of snails throughout the grazing ranges from season to season over a four-year period. Hypothetically, treating bovines should reduce infection rates in snails to below the critical number necessary to maintain infections in man and bovines.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China.

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-yearly mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped; (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible.