Composite quantitative knee structure metrics predict the development of accelerated knee osteoarthritis: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine if composite structural measures of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) progression on magnetic resonance (MR) imaging can predict the radiographic onset of accelerated knee osteoarthritis. METHODS: We used data from a nested case-control study among participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative without radiographic KOA at baseline. Participants were separated into three groups based on radiographic disease progression over 4 years: 1) accelerated (Kellgren-Lawrence grades [KL] 0/1 to 3/4), 2) typical (increase in KL, excluding accelerated osteoarthritis), or 3) no KOA (no change in KL). We assessed tibiofemoral cartilage damage (four regions: medial/lateral tibia/femur), bone marrow lesion (BML) volume (four regions: medial/lateral tibia/femur), and whole knee effusion-synovitis volume on 3 T MR images with semi-automated programs. We calculated two MR-based composite scores. Cumulative damage was the sum of standardized cartilage damage. Disease activity was the sum of standardized volumes of effusion-synovitis and BMLs. We focused on annual images from 2 years before to 2 years after radiographic onset (or a matched time for those without knee osteoarthritis). To determine between group differences in the composite metrics at all time points, we used generalized linear mixed models with group (3 levels) and time (up to 5 levels). For our prognostic analysis, we used multinomial logistic regression models to determine if one-year worsening in each composite metric change associated with future accelerated knee osteoarthritis (odds ratios [OR] based on units of 1 standard deviation of change). RESULTS: Prior to disease onset, the accelerated KOA group had greater average disease activity compared to the typical and no KOA groups and this persisted up to 2 years after disease onset. During a pre-radiographic disease period, the odds of developing accelerated KOA were greater in people with worsening disease activity [versus typical KOA OR (95% confidence interval [CI]): 1.58 (1.08 to 2.33); versus no KOA: 2.39 (1.55 to 3.71)] or cumulative damage [versus typical KOA: 1.69 (1.14 to 2.51); versus no KOA: 2.11 (1.41 to 3.16)]. CONCLUSIONS: MR-based disease activity and cumulative damage metrics may be prognostic markers to help identify people at risk for accelerated onset and progression of knee osteoarthritis.

Risk factors and the natural history of accelerated knee osteoarthritis: a narrative review.

BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis is generally a slowly progressive disorder. However, at least 1 in 7 people with incident knee osteoarthritis develop an abrupt progression to advanced-stage radiographic disease, many within 12 months. We summarize what is known - primarily based on findings from the Osteoarthritis Initiative - about the risk factors and natural history of accelerated knee osteoarthritis (AKOA) - defined as a transition from no radiographic knee osteoarthritis to advanced-stage disease < 4 years - and put these findings in context with typical osteoarthritis (slowly progressing disease), aging, prior case reports/series, and relevant animal models. Risk factors in the 2 to 4 years before radiographic manifestation of AKOA (onset) include older age, higher body mass index, altered joint alignment, contralateral osteoarthritis, greater pre-radiographic disease burden (structural, symptoms, and function), or low fasting glucose. One to 2 years before AKOA onset people often exhibit rapid articular cartilage loss, larger bone marrow lesions and effusion-synovitis, more meniscal pathology, slower chair-stand or walking pace, and increased global impact of arthritis than adults with typical knee osteoarthritis. Increased joint symptoms predispose a person to new joint trauma, which for someone who develops AKOA is often characterized by a destabilizing meniscal tear (e.g., radial or root tear). One in 7 people with AKOA onset subsequently receive a knee replacement during a 9-year period. The median time from any increase in radiographic severity to knee replacement is only 2.3 years. Despite some similarities, AKOA is different than other rapidly progressive arthropathies and collapsing these phenomena together or extracting results from one type of osteoarthritis to another should be avoided until further research comparing these types of osteoarthritis is conducted. Animal models that induce meniscal damage in the presence of other risk factors or create an incongruent distribution of loading on joints create an accelerated form of osteoarthritis compared to other models and may offer insights into AKOA. CONCLUSION: Accelerated knee osteoarthritis is unique from typical knee osteoarthritis. The incidence of AKOA in the Osteoarthritis Initiative and Chingford Study is substantial. AKOA needs to be taken into account and studied in epidemiologic studies and clinical trials.

Adults With Incident Accelerated Knee Osteoarthritis Are More Likely to Use Pharmacological Treatment Options and Receive Arthroscopic Knee Surgery: Data From the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if people with incident accelerated knee osteoarthritis (AKOA) were more likely to receive a pharmacological treatment or arthroscopic knee surgery than those with typical knee osteoarthritis (KOA) or no KOA. METHODS: We conducted a nested cohort study using data from baseline and the first 8 years of the Osteoarthritis Initiative. Eligible participants had no radiographic KOA at baseline (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] < 2). We classified three groups using KL grades: 1) AKOA: knee progressed to advanced-stage KOA (KL 3/4) in 4 years or less, 2) typical KOA: knee increased in KL grade by 8 years (excluding AKOA), and 3) No KOA: no change in KL grade by 8 years. The outcome was self-reported arthroscopic knee surgery or a pharmacological treatment option: nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), hyaluronic acid injections, intra-articular corticosteroid injections, or prescription analgesics. Between-group differences in therapeutic use were evaluated with Chi-square tests. RESULTS: Adults who developed AKOA (n = 92) were more likely to report arthroscopic knee surgery (AKOA: 32%, KOA [n = 380]: 8%, no KOA [n = 875]: 3%; P < 0.001), hyaluronic acid injections (AKOA: 10%, KOA: 4%, no KOA: 1%; P < 0.001), intra-articular corticosteroid injections (AKOA: 30%, KOA: 7%, no KOA: 4%; P < 0.001), and NSAID use (over the counter: AKOA: 65%, KOA: 48%, and no KOA: 46%; P = 0.003; prescription: AKOA: 61%, KOA: 43%, no KOA: 41%; P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Adults with AKOA are more likely to receive pharmacological treatment or arthroscopic knee surgery than their peers. Adults with AKOA are an important patient population that is understudied in clinical research despite their use of greater health care resources.

Role of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Classifying Individuals Who Will Develop Accelerated Radiographic Knee Osteoarthritis.

We assessed whether adding magnetic resonance (MR)-based features to a base model of clinically accessible participant characteristics (i.e., serological, radiographic, demographic, symptoms, and physical function) improved classification of adults who developed accelerated radiographic knee osteoarthritis (AKOA) or not over the subsequent 4 years. We conducted a case-control study using radiographs from baseline and the first four annual visits of the osteoarthritis initiative to define groups. Eligible individuals had no radiographic KOA in either knee at baseline (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] grade <2). We classified two groups matched on sex (i) AKOA: at least one knee developed advanced-stage KOA (KL = 3 or 4) within 48 months and (ii) did not develop AKOA within 48 months. The MR-based features were assessments of bone, effusion/synovitis, tendons, ligaments, cartilage, and menisci. All characteristics and MR-based features were from the baseline visit. Classification and regression tree analyses were performed to determine classification rules and identify statistically important variables. The CART models with and without MR features each explained approximately 40% of the variability. Adding MR-based features to the model yielded modest improvements in specificity (0.90 vs. 0.82) but lower sensitivity (0.62 vs. 0.70) than the base model. There was consistent evidence that serum glucose, effusion-synovitis volume, and cruciate ligament degeneration are statistically important variables in classifying individuals who will develop AKOA. We found common MR-based measures failed to dramatically improve classification. These findings also show a complex interplay among participant characteristics and a need to identify novel characteristics to improve classification. © 2019 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 37:2420-2428, 2019.

Accelerated knee osteoarthritis is associated with pre-radiographic degeneration of the extensor mechanism and cruciate ligaments: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

BACKGROUND: To determine if adults with incident accelerated knee osteoarthritis (KOA) are more likely to have degenerative knee ligaments or tendons compared to individuals with typical or no KOA. METHODS: We identified 3 sex-matched groups among Osteoarthritis Initiative participants who had a knee without radiographic KOA at baseline (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] < 2): 1) accelerated KOA: at least 1 knee had KL grade ≥ 3 in ≤48 months, 2) typical KOA: at least 1 knee increased in radiographic scoring within 48 months, 3) no KOA: both knees had the same KL grade at baseline and 48 months. We evaluated knee magnetic resonance images up to 2 years before and after a visit when the accelerated or typical KOA criteria were met (index visit). Radiologists reported degenerative signal changes for cruciate and collateral ligaments, and extensor mechanism and proximal gastrocnemius tendons. We used generalized linear mixed models with 2 independent variables: group and time. RESULTS: Starting at least 2 years before onset, adults with accelerated KOA were twice as likely to have degenerative cruciate ligaments than no KOA (odds ratio = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.18, 3.74). A weaker association (not statistically significant) was detected for adults with accelerated versus typical KOA (OR = 1.72, 95%CI = 0.99, 3.02). Regardless of time, adults with accelerated (odds ratio = 2.13) or typical KOA (odds ratio = 2.16) were twice as likely to have a degenerative extensor mechanism than no KOA. No other structural features were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Degenerative cruciate ligaments or extensor mechanism antedate radiographic onset of accelerated KOA. Hence, knee instability may precede accelerated KOA, which might help identify patients at high-risk for accelerated KOA and novel prevention strategies.

Early pre-radiographic structural pathology precedes the onset of accelerated knee osteoarthritis.

BACKGROUND: Accelerated knee osteoarthritis (AKOA) is characterized by more pain, impaired physical function, and greater likelihood to receive a joint replacement compared to individuals who develop the typical gradual onset of disease. Prognostic tools are needed to determine which structural pathologies precede the development of AKOA compared to individuals without AKOA. Therefore, the purpose of this manuscript was to determine which pre-radiographic structural features precede the development of AKOA. METHODS: The sample comprised participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) who had at least one radiographically normal knee at baseline (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] grade < 1). Participants were classified into 2 groups based on radiographic progression from baseline to 48 months: AKOA (KL grade change from < 1 to > 3) and No AKOA. The index visit was the study visit when participants met criteria for AKOA or a matched timepoint for those who did not develop AKOA. Magnetic resonance (MR) images were assessed for 12 structural features at the OAI baseline, and 1 and 2 years prior to the index visit. Separate logistic regression models (i.e. OAI baseline, 1 and 2 years prior) were used to determine which pre-radiographic structural features were more likely to antedate the development of AKOA compared to individuals not developing AKOA. RESULTS: At the OAI baseline visit, degenerative cruciate ligaments (Odds Ratio [OR] = 2.2, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 1.3,3.5), infrapatellar fat pad signal intensity alteration (OR = 2.0, 95%CI = 1.2,3.2), medial/lateral meniscal pathology (OR = 2.1/2.4, 95%CI = 1.3,3.4/1.5,3.8), and greater quantitative knee effusion-synovitis (OR = 2.2, 95%CI = 1.4,3.4) were more likely to antedate the development of AKOA when compared to those that did not develop AKOA. These results were similar at one and two years prior to disease onset. Additionally, medial meniscus extrusion at one year prior to disease onset (OR = 3.5, 95%CI = 2.1,6.0) increased the likelihood of developing AKOA. CONCLUSIONS: Early ligamentous degeneration, effusion/synovitis, and meniscal pathology precede the onset of AKOA and may be prognostic biomarkers.

Association Between Declining Walking Speed and Increasing Bone Marrow Lesion and Effusion Volume in Individuals with Accelerated Knee Osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a decline in walking speed during the year prior to disease onset is associated with concurrent changes in cartilage, bone marrow lesions (BMLs), or effusion in adults who develop common knee osteoarthritis (OA), accelerated knee OA, or no knee OA. METHODS: We identified 3 groups from the Osteoarthritis Initiative based on annual radiographs from baseline to 48 months: accelerated knee OA, common knee OA, and no knee OA. We used the cartilage damage index (CDI) to assess tibiofemoral cartilage damage and used a semiautomated program to measure BML and effusion volume. Walking speed was assessed as an individual's habitual walking speed over 20 meters. One-year change in walking speed and structural measures were calculated as index visit measurements minus measurements from the year prior visit. Logistic regression models were used to determine whether change in walking speed (exposure) was associated with change in each structural measure (outcome) for the overall group and then separately for the accelerated knee OA, common knee OA, and no knee OA groups. RESULTS: Adults who slowed their walking speed were almost twice as likely to present with increased BML volume, with a significant association (odds ratio 3.04 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.03-8.95]) among adults with accelerated knee OA. Adults with accelerated knee OA who slowed their walking speed were approximately 3.4 times (95% CI 1.10-10.49) more likely to present with increased effusion volume. Walking speed change was not significantly associated with CDI change. CONCLUSION: A change in an easily assessable clinical examination (i.e., 20-meter walk test) was associated with concurrent worsening in BML and effusion volume in adults who developed accelerated knee OA.

Characteristics of Accelerated Hand Osteoarthritis: Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine whether hand joints develop an accelerated form of osteoarthritis (OA) and to characterize individuals who develop accelerated hand osteoarthritis (AHOA). METHODS: We evaluated 3519 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative with complete data for baseline and 48-month radiographic hand osteoarthritis (HOA). One reader scored posteroanterior radiographs of the dominant hand using a modified Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) scale and another reader scored the presence of central or marginal erosions. A third reader read images flagged for signs of diseases other than OA. We defined AHOA as ≥ 1 joints that progressed from a KL grade of 0 or 1 at baseline to KL grade 3 or 4 at 48 months. RESULTS: The definition of AHOA was met by 1% over 4 years: 37 hands had 1 joint affected and 1 hand had 2 joints affected. At baseline, adults who developed AHOA were more likely to have hand pain (37% vs 22%), radiographic HOA (71% vs 36%), as well as central (22% vs 7%) and marginal erosions (11% vs 2%) in other joints compared to those without AHOA. Adults with AHOA were more likely to develop new erosions over 48 months (central 35%, marginal 5%) than those without AHOA (central 5%, marginal 1%). The most common locations of accelerated OA were the second metacarpophalangeal and first carpometacarpal joint. CONCLUSION: Accelerated OA can occur in the hand, especially among digits commonly used for pinching and fine motor skills.

Diffuse tibiofemoral cartilage change prior to the development of accelerated knee osteoarthritis: Data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

We compared the spatial distribution of tibiofemoral cartilage change between individuals who will develop accelerated knee osteoarthritis (KOA) versus typical onset of KOA prior to the development of radiographic KOA. We conducted a longitudinal case-control analysis of 129 individuals from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. We assessed the percent change in tibiofemoral cartilage on magnetic resonance images at 36 informative locations from 2 to 1 year prior to the development of accelerated (n = 44) versus typical KOA (n = 40). We defined cartilage change in the accelerated and typical KOA groups at 36 informative locations based on thresholds of cartilage percent change in a no KOA group (n = 45). We described the spatial patterns of cartilage change in the accelerated KOA and typical KOA groups and performed a logistic regression to determine if diffuse cartilage change (predictor; at least half of the tibiofemoral regions demonstrating change in multiple informative locations) was associated with KOA group (outcome). There was a non-significant trend that individuals with diffuse tibiofemoral cartilage change were 2.2 times more likely to develop accelerated knee OA when compared with individuals who develop typical knee OA (OR [95% CI] = 2.2 [0.90-5.14]. Adults with accelerated or typical KOA demonstrate heterogeneity in spatial distribution of cartilage thinning and thickening. These results provide preliminary evidence of a different spatial pattern of cartilage change between individuals who will develop accelerated versus typical KOA. These data suggest there may be different mechanisms driving the early structural disease progression between accelerated versus typical KOA. Clin. Anat. 32:369-378, 2019. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effusion-synovitis and infrapatellar fat pad signal intensity alteration differentiate accelerated knee osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether greater effusion-synovitis volume and infrapatellar fat pad (IFP) signal intensity alteration differentiate incident accelerated knee OA (KOA) from a gradual onset of KOA or no KOA. METHODS: We classified three sex-matched groups of participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative who had a knee with no radiographic KOA at baseline (recruited 2004-06; Kellgren-Lawrence <2; n = 125/group): accelerated KOA: ⩾1 knee progressed to Kellgren-Lawrence grade ⩾3 within 48 months; common KOA: ⩾1 knee increased in radiographic scoring within 48 months; and no KOA: both knees had the same Kellgren-Lawrence grade at baseline and 48 months. The observation period included up to 2 years before and after when the group criteria were met. Two musculoskeletal radiologists reported presence of IFP signal intensity alteration and independent readers used a semi-automated method to segment effusion-synovitis volume. We used generalized linear mixed models with group and time as independent variables, as well as testing a group-by-time interaction. RESULTS: Starting at 2 years before disease onset, adults who developed accelerated KOA had greater effusion-synovitis volume than their peers (accelerated KOA: 11.94 ± 0.90 cm3, KOA: 8.29 ± 1.19 cm3, no KOA: 8.14 ± 0.90 cm3) and have greater odds of having IFP signal intensity alteration than those with no KOA (odds ratio = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.14-3.78). Starting at 1 year prior to disease onset, those with accelerated KOA have greater than twice the odds of having IFP signal intensity alteration than those with common KOA. CONCLUSION: People with IFP signal intensity alteration and/or greater effusion-synovitis volume in the absence of radiographic KOA may be at high risk for accelerated KOA, which may be characterized by local inflammation.

Accelerated Knee Osteoarthritis Is Characterized by Destabilizing Meniscal Tears and Preradiographic Structural Disease Burden.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether accelerated knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is preceded by, and characterized over time by, destabilizing meniscal tears or other pathologic changes. METHODS: We selected 3 sex-matched groups of subjects from the first 48 months of the Osteoarthritis Initiative, comprising adults who had a knee without KOA (Kellgren/Lawrence [K/L] radiographic grade <2) at baseline. Subjects in the accelerated KOA group developed KOA of K/L grade ≥3, those with typical KOA showed increased K/L radiographic scores, and those with no KOA had the same K/L grade over time. An index visit was the visit when the radiographic criteria for accelerated KOA and typical KOA were met (the no KOA group was matched to the accelerated KOA group). The observation period was up to 2 years before and after an index visit. Radiologists reviewed magnetic resonance (MR) images of the index knee and identified destabilizing meniscal tears (root tears, radial tears, complex tears), miscellaneous pathologic features (acute ligamentous or tendinous injuries, attrition, subchondral insufficiency fractures, other incidental findings), and meniscal damage in >2 of 6 regions (3 regions per meniscus: anterior horn, body, posterior horn). In addition, bone marrow lesions (BMLs) and cartilage damage on MR images were quantified. Linear mixed regression models were performed to analyze the results. RESULTS: At 1 year before the index visit, >75% of adults with accelerated KOA had meniscal damage in ≥2 regions (odds ratio 3.19 [95% confidence interval 1.70-5.97] versus adults with typical KOA). By the index visit, meniscal damage in ≥2 regions was ubiquitous in adults with accelerated KOA, including 42% of subjects having evidence of a destabilizing meniscal tear (versus 14% of subjects with typical KOA). These changes corresponded to findings of larger BMLs and greater cartilage loss in the accelerated KOA group. CONCLUSION: Accelerated KOA is characterized by destabilizing meniscal tears in a knee compromised by meniscal damage in >2 regions, and also characterized by the presence of large BMLs and greater cartilage loss.

Adults with incident accelerated knee osteoarthritis are more likely to receive a knee replacement: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

We aimed to determine if knees with incident accelerated knee osteoarthritis (AKOA) were more likely to receive a knee replacement (KR) than those with common knee osteoarthritis (KOA) or no KOA. We conducted a nested cohort study using data from baseline and the first 9 years of the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Eligible knees had no radiographic KOA at baseline (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] < 2). We classified 3 groups using KL grades from the first 8 years of the OAI: 1) AKOA: knee progressed to advance-stage KOA (KL 3/4) in ≤ 4 years, 2) common KOA: knee increased in KL grade (excluding AKOA), and 3) No KOA: no change in KL grade by 8 years. The outcome was a KR (partial or total) at or before the 9-year OAI visit. We conducted a logistic regression with generalized linear mixed model and adjusted for age, body mass index, and sex. Overall, 14% of knees with AKOA received a KR by the 9th year compared with 1% and < 1% of those with common or no KOA, respectively. Knees that developed AKOA were > 80x and ~ 25x more likely to receive a KR than knees with no KOA or incident common KOA (adjusted odds ratio = 25.08; 95% confidence interval = 9.63-65.34). In conclusion, approximately 1 in 7 knees that develop AKOA received a KR; however, KRs were rare in the OAI among other knees with no radiographic KOA at baseline. Urgent steps are needed to identify adults at high-risk for AKOA and develop prevention strategies regarding the modifiable risk factors.

Characterizing the distinct structural changes associated with self-reported knee injury among individuals with incident knee osteoarthritis: Data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

We aimed to characterize the agreement between distinct structural changes on magnetic resonance (MR) imaging and self-reported injury in the 12 months leading to incident common or accelerated knee osteoarthritis (KOA). We conducted a descriptive study using data from baseline and the first 4 annual visits of the Osteoarthritis Initiative. Knees had no radiographic KOA at baseline (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL]<2). We classified two groups: (1) accelerated KOA: a knee developed advanced-stage KOA (KL = 3 or 4) within 48 months and (2) common KOA: a knee increased in radiographic severity (excluding those with accelerated KOA). Adults were 1:1 matched based on sex. The index visit was when a person met the accelerated or common KOA criteria. We limited our sample to people with MR images and self-reported injury data at index visit and year prior. Among 226 people, we found fair agreement between self-reported injuries and distinct structural changes (kappa = 0.24 to 0.31). Most distinct structural changes were medial meniscal pathology. No distinct structural changes (e.g., root or radial tears) appeared to differ between adults who reported or did not report an injury; except, all subchondral fractures occurred in adults who developed accelerated KOA and reported an injury. While there is fair agreement between self-reported knee injuries and distinct structural changes, there is some discordance. Self-reported injury may represent a different construct from distinct structural changes that occur after joint trauma. Clin. Anat. 31:330-334, 2018. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk factors can classify individuals who develop accelerated knee osteoarthritis: Data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

We assessed which combinations of risk factors can classify adults who develop accelerated knee osteoarthritis (KOA) or not and which factors are most important. We conducted a case-control study using data from baseline and the first four annual visits of the Osteoarthritis Initiative. Participants had no radiographic KOA at baseline (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL]<2). We classified three groups (matched on sex): (i) accelerated KOA: >1 knee developed advance-stage KOA (KL = 3 or 4) within 48 months; (ii) typical KOA: >1 knee increased in radiographic scoring (excluding those with accelerated KOA); and (iii) No KOA: no change in KL grade by 48 months. We selected eight predictors: Serum concentrations for C-reactive protein, glycated serum protein (GSP), and glucose; age; sex; body mass index; coronal tibial slope, and femorotibial alignment. We performed a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis to determine rules for classifying individuals as accelerated KOA or not (no KOA and typical KOA). The most important baseline variables for classifying individuals with incident accelerated KOA (in order of importance) were age, glucose concentrations, BMI, and static alignment. Individuals <63.5 years were likely not to develop accelerated KOA, except when overweight. Individuals >63.5 years were more likely to develop accelerated KOA except when their glucose levels were >81.98 mg/dl and they did not have varus malalignment. The unexplained variance of the CART = 69%. These analyses highlight the complex interactions among four risk factors that may classify individuals who will develop accelerated KOA but more research is needed to uncover novel risk factors. © 2017 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 36:876-880, 2018.

A single recent injury is a potent risk factor for the development of accelerated knee osteoarthritis: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

We examined the association between previously reported modifiable risk factors for accelerated knee osteoarthritis (AKOA) at the Osteoarthritis Initiative's (OAI) baseline and 48-month visits among adults who develop AKOA between the 48- and 96-month visits. We conducted a case-control study using data from the OAI baseline to the 96-month visit. Participants had no radiographic knee osteoarthritis (KOA) in the index knee at OAI baseline and 48-month visits [Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) <2]. We classified 2 groups: (1) AKOA: >1 knee developed advance-stage KOA (KL = 3 or 4) between 48- and 96-month visits and (2) No KOA: no KOA and no change in radiographic severity bilaterally over 96 months. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the association between the outcome of AKOA (versus no KOA) and several modifiable risk factors collected at OAI baseline and 48-month visits [body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, comorbidity score, and NSAID use]. We also explored a new injury from baseline to 48 months and from 48- to 96 months. Adults with greater baseline and 48-month BMI were more likely to develop AKOA. Injury was only associated with AKOA onset when it occurred within 4 years of developing AKOA [prior 2 years: odds ratio = 6.21; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.40, 11.35; 2-4 years prior: odds ratio = 4.42, 95% CI 2.06, 9.50]. BMI may consistently predispose an adult to AKOA, but certain injuries are likely a catalyst for AKOA.